炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 从纸面数据上看确实如此。在瓜子二手车近期发布的《2025 年二手车保值率榜单》中，尤其是燃油车 市场，传统合资品牌的经典车系依然具备极强的抗跌能力。燃油车三年保值率前十名中，丰田、本田品 牌占据四席，汉兰达、飞度、雅阁等经典车系的三年保值率仍然维持在65%以上。 而即便在新能源汽车整体加速贬值的背景下，小米SU7的1年保值率仍高达91.78%，理想MEGA同样跻 身保值榜前列。相比之下，部分传统豪华品牌在新能源领域的竞争力并未如预期般体现，宝马i3、 iX1、iX3等车系的一年保值率仅在45%左右。 商务部公布的，数据也显示，2025年1至11月，全国汽车以旧换新数量已超过1120万辆。与此同时，二 手车转籍率也一直处在较高水平，2025年10月更是达到33.1%的当期历史高位。 二手车市场如火如荼，但许多人在现实中的卖车境遇却大相径庭："榜单显示很保值，为什么真轮到我 卖车，报价却总是低一截？" 在卖二手车这件事上，很多人都忽视了一个真相。车是否好卖，与档次和价位无关，甚至保值率也并非 最主要的衡量指标。能否卖到最满意的心理价位，核心 ...

你的车为什么卖不到保值率测算价？ 目前，市面上的保值率很多，大部分是宏观统计均值，但受区域、流通性、车况等因素影响，不同的数据样本也客观存在各自的局限性，会导致在线下交 易时出现不符合预期价格的情况。例如，大部分保值率测算的核心前提是"车辆无重大事故、保养规范、车况良好"，但实际交易过程中，每辆车的"个体 状态"都会成为成交价的"加减分项"。 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会委员章弘表示，保值率测算通常基于车辆的理想状态，但实际交易中，车辆可能存在磨损、维修记录、事故历史或配置缺失 等问题，这些都会导致实际价格低于理论保值率价格。不仅如此，如果某车型在二手车市场供大于求，价格会受到抑制。新车价格变化，以及不同地区的 经济水平、消费习惯和市场需求不同也会影响二手车的价格。 很多车主在卖车时常常有这样一个疑惑：明明按保值率算，自己的爱车估价并不低，实际却难卖到预期价位。 "到底怎么能卖上价？""什么时候卖车最合适？""什么样的车更容易卖出好价？"…… 这些困扰车主的高频疑问，《2025瓜子二手车年度趋势报告》（简称 "报告"）给出了答案。作为依托平台全年真实海量交易数据生成的行业洞察，报告还原了鲜活的二手车市场生态，为 ...

责任编辑：何俊熹 新浪科技讯 12月25日下午消息，瓜子二手车发布本年度趋势报告，并基于平台2025年真实成交数据， 公布了线上部分车系的保值率榜单。榜单结果显示，新能源品类中，小米SU7以超过90%的一年保值率 位居榜首，吉利和理想紧随其后跻身保值榜前三。 燃油车市场中，传统合资品牌的经典车系依然具备极强的抗跌能力。在燃油车三年保值率前十名中，丰 田、本田品牌占据四席，汉兰达、飞度、雅阁等经典车系的三年保值率仍然维持在65%以上，显示出成 熟产品在二手市场中的长期稳定价值。 与之形成对比的是，部分海外高端品牌的保值能力正在明显走弱。例如路虎揽胜极光、沃尔沃S60等车 系，其三年保值率已落至40%左右，在二手市场中的价格承压愈发明显。 从整体市场来看，二手车价格折损并非线性变化。基于瓜子平台数据测算，燃油车第一年的综合保值率 约为66%，折损最为明显；到第三年时整体价格折损接近一半。但在三年之后，折损曲线明显放缓，价 格趋于稳定。 新能源车型的折损节奏则更为集中。数据显示，新能源车在使用两年左右时，价格已接近"腰斩"，第三 年仍存在约9%的继续折损，但同样在三年后进入相对平缓阶段。 与保值率榜同步发布的，还有 ...

根据2025年12月中央经济工作会议释放的最新信号，2026年促进消费的政策方向整体保持稳定，"以旧换新"作为核心举措仍将持续实施，而汽 车消费作为重要一环，是政策重点支持的赛道之一。 回看2025年，汽车置换需求的爆发已经显现——数据显示，2025年1至11月，全国汽车以旧换新数量已超过1120万辆。与此同时，二手车转籍率也一直 处在较高水平，2025年10月更是达到33.1%的当期历史高位。跨区域流通壁垒正在被快速打破，二手车的这种高流通性，正在为即将到来的新一轮以旧换新 提供更加通畅、有效的通道。 综合政策定调与市场数据来看，2026年汽车消费，尤其是围绕"以旧换新"展开的置换需求，仍将保持高位运行。在这一轮即将到来的换车浪潮中，二手 车平台的定价能力与流通效率，将直接影响车主能否实现车辆价值的最大化。基于此，瓜子二手车依托平台真实、海量的全年交易数据，展现了2025年二手 车交易车型、年限、保值率等趋势。 新能源自主品牌强势崛起，燃油车主流合资品牌依旧稳健 基于这一折损规律，瓜子二手车给出了换车建议。理想的情况下，燃油车用户三年内完成出售，更有利于锁定车辆的剩余价值；而新能源车由于技术更 新节奏更快， ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand car market is experiencing significant challenges, including rising customer acquisition costs, declining vehicle resale values, and a shift in consumer preferences towards new cars, particularly in the context of the increasing competition from new energy vehicles [3][4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The second-hand car market is characterized by a mix of trading entities and a chaotic trading environment, leading to a significant reshuffle among dealers [4][13]. - The depreciation of second-hand cars has become pronounced, with many vehicles losing substantial value shortly after purchase, often dropping to around 80% of their original price [6][7]. Valuation Trends - A report from the China Automobile Circulation Association indicates that most pure electric vehicles have a one-year depreciation rate below 80%, with many models around 70% [6]. - Specific models, such as the BYD Han, have seen drastic price drops, with some vehicles losing over 50% of their value within two years [6][7]. Brand-Specific Insights - Different brands exhibit varying resale values, with NIO's rental battery models experiencing particularly low demand and high depreciation [7][8]. - Tesla stands out in the second-hand market due to its relatively stable resale value and strong demand, especially in regions like Shanghai [8][9]. Market Challenges - The second-hand car market is facing a decline in sales due to several factors, including the competitive pricing of new cars, increased consumer awareness, and rising operational costs for dealers [16][17]. - Many dealers are struggling with low profit margins, with nearly 90% of dealers reporting a gross margin below 6% [15][17]. Industry Restructuring - The industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with many small dealers exiting the market and a trend towards specialization in specific brands to mitigate risks [14][17]. - The current market environment has led to a focus on professionalization, with successful dealers adopting refined operational strategies to navigate the challenges [17].

Core Insights - The second-hand car market is facing increasing customer acquisition costs and declining profitability, leading to widespread losses among dealers [1][10] - The myth of high resale value for second-hand cars has been shattered due to changes in the new car market, particularly with aggressive pricing from new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant reshuffle, with many dealers exiting and only a few managing to remain profitable [10][12] Market Dynamics - The resale value of second-hand cars is closely linked to new car prices and depreciation rates, with many popular models now seeing lower resale values [1][2] - A report indicates that most pure electric vehicles have a one-year resale value below 80%, with many models around 70% [2] - The depreciation of certain models, such as the BYD Han, can exceed 50% within two years, highlighting the volatility in the market [2] Brand-Specific Insights - Different brands exhibit varying resale values, with NIO's rental electric vehicles showing particularly low resale values due to weak market demand [3][4] - Tesla stands out in the second-hand market with relatively stable prices and high demand, leading to quicker vehicle turnover for dealers [4][5] - The Xiaomi SU7 has experienced significant price drops due to market oversupply, demonstrating the cyclical nature of the second-hand market [5][10] Transaction Challenges - The second-hand car market is characterized by a lack of standardization, leading to a "one car, one condition, one price" approach, complicating transactions [6][8] - Many dealers do not provide after-sales support, relying on official warranties, which further complicates consumer trust [8][9] - The introduction of third-party inspection services, like "Check Doctor," aims to improve transparency regarding vehicle conditions, particularly for battery health [7][9] Industry Restructuring - The second-hand car industry has been undergoing a significant restructuring since 2020, exacerbated by economic fluctuations and changes in the automotive market [10][11] - A report indicates that nearly 90% of second-hand car dealers have a gross profit margin below 6%, with many facing operational losses [10][12] - The market is shifting towards specialization, with successful dealers focusing on one or two brands to better understand pricing dynamics and reduce risks [12]

Core Insights - The second-hand car market is facing increasing customer acquisition costs and declining profitability, with many dealers reporting losses due to a combination of factors including market saturation and fierce competition from new energy vehicles [1][10][11] - The myth of high resale value for second-hand cars has been shattered, particularly for new energy vehicles, as their depreciation rates have surged due to aggressive pricing strategies in the new car market [1][2][10] Market Dynamics - The second-hand car market is experiencing a significant shift, with the resale value of many models, especially electric vehicles, dropping sharply. For instance, many one-year-old electric models have a resale value below 80%, and three-year-old models often fall below 50% [2][3] - The market is characterized by a lack of standardization and transparency, leading to a "one car, one condition, one price" approach, which complicates transactions for consumers who may not fully understand the nuances of electric vehicle battery health [6][8] Brand Performance - Different brands exhibit varying resale values, with NIO's rental electric models showing particularly low resale values due to weak market demand and complex rental agreements that deter potential buyers [3][4] - Tesla stands out in the second-hand market with relatively stable prices and high demand, attributed to its strong brand presence and consumer confidence [4][5] Dealer Challenges - The second-hand car dealer landscape is undergoing a significant shake-up, with many small dealers exiting the market due to sustained losses. Reports indicate that nearly 90% of dealers have a gross profit margin below 6% [10][12] - Dealers face increased operational costs as they adapt to digital marketing strategies and customer engagement methods, which further compresses their profit margins [11][12] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting, with many potential buyers opting for new cars due to better marketing and pricing strategies, which has led to a decline in second-hand car sales [11][12] - The rise of information accessibility has empowered consumers, allowing them to make more informed decisions, thereby increasing their bargaining power in negotiations [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand car market is experiencing significant challenges, including declining car values, increased competition, and a shift in consumer behavior towards new cars, particularly in the context of the rising popularity of electric vehicles [1][10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second-hand car market is characterized by a mix of players and a lack of standardized trading practices, leading to a chaotic environment [1][6]. - The depreciation of second-hand cars, especially electric vehicles, has become pronounced, with many models losing substantial value shortly after purchase [2][4]. - The market for second-hand electric vehicles is particularly volatile, with brands like NIO experiencing significant drops in resale value due to low demand and complex ownership structures [3][10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly cautious, with many opting for new cars due to aggressive pricing and marketing strategies, which diverts potential buyers from the second-hand market [11][12]. - The rise of online platforms has empowered consumers with better access to information, enhancing their bargaining power and reducing the margins for dealers [11][12]. Group 3: Dealer Challenges - Many second-hand car dealers are facing financial difficulties, with a significant portion operating at a loss, leading to a wave of market exits [10][12]. - The cost of customer acquisition has risen sharply, as dealers now rely on digital marketing and social media to attract buyers, which adds to their operational costs [11][12]. - The market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with successful dealers focusing on specialization and brand-specific strategies to mitigate risks [12]. Group 4: Valuation Trends - The depreciation rates for electric vehicles are alarming, with many models seeing values drop to around 50% after three years [2][3]. - Specific models, such as the BYD Han, have been reported to lose over 50% of their value within two years, highlighting the volatility in the second-hand electric vehicle market [2][4]. - The overall profitability of second-hand car dealers is under pressure, with many reporting margins below 6%, and a significant number operating with margins of 4% or less [10][11]. Group 5: Industry Responses - Major companies, such as CATL, are entering the second-hand electric vehicle market, offering buyback guarantees and comprehensive inspection services to enhance consumer confidence [9]. - The introduction of third-party inspection services is becoming more common, helping to address concerns about vehicle condition and battery health, which are critical for electric vehicles [7][9].

Core Insights - The official certified used car market in China has only a 3.1% market share despite over 2 billion yuan investment by SAIC Volkswagen over 22 years, indicating a struggle to transition from the periphery to the center of the used car market [1] - The Chinese automotive market has entered a phase where used cars are central to its development, emphasizing the need for manufacturers to elevate used car business to a strategic level equal to new car sales [3][4] - The used car business is becoming a crucial profit source for dealerships, with over 5% contribution to overall revenue, contrasting with negative profit contributions from new car sales [4] Industry Trends - The used car market is approaching a transaction volume of 20 million units annually, with a significant growth rate of 47.9% for new energy used cars [15] - The industry is experiencing a shift from quantity accumulation to quality enhancement, with a focus on improving the integrity and transparency of transactions [15][16] - The introduction of new policies is accelerating the transformation of the used car market, with a growing emphasis on professional and branded operators [17] Company Strategies - SAIC Volkswagen is restructuring its used car business by integrating various sales channels and enhancing its certification system to improve efficiency and market presence [7] - Lexus has established a comprehensive used car certification and training system, emphasizing direct engagement in the used car market to better understand challenges and support dealers [5] - BMW is encouraging authorized dealers to develop robust used car teams and has invested resources to support long-term planning in the used car sector [6] Financial Insights - The profitability of used car operations is becoming increasingly important, with dealers facing declining margins in new car sales [4][8] - The implementation of financial tools to create high-quality used cars is suggested to alleviate sourcing issues and stabilize market prices [4] - The introduction of vehicle age premium strategies by companies like FAW Toyota aims to enhance brand loyalty and improve trade-in values for customers [8][9] Market Challenges - The used car industry faces challenges such as declining profit margins and a lack of trust due to issues like concealed vehicle conditions and false advertising [16] - The need for improved financial and insurance services is critical to meet the evolving demands of consumers in the used car market [16] - The industry is urged to embrace transformation and focus on building a transparent and trustworthy environment to stimulate consumer confidence in purchasing used cars [16][17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing market share and value retention of Chinese domestic brands in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of the ongoing vehicle replacement policy in China [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the China Automobile Circulation Association indicates that the three-year depreciation rate for leading domestic brands has reached 57%, surpassing luxury brands like BBA (53%) and joint venture brands from the US, France, and South Korea (40%) [1]. - The trading volume of used new energy vehicles has exceeded 10%, becoming a core driver of market growth [1][4]. - The demand for used cars is shifting, with consumers increasingly prioritizing vehicle quality and diverse service experiences over mere pricing [5]. Group 2: Brand Performance - GAC Trumpchi leads the domestic brand retention rate, with top models like the Trumpchi, Tank, and Lynk & Co showing three-year depreciation rates of 57.5%, 56.8%, and 54.3% respectively, outperforming joint venture brands like Volkswagen (52.8%) [2][3]. - In the electric vehicle segment, models such as Xiaomi SU7 and AITO M9 have achieved a one-year retention rate of up to 88.7%, significantly higher than luxury models like Porsche Taycan and Tesla Model 3 [3]. - The used car market is witnessing a "younger" trend, with a notable increase in transactions for vehicles less than two years old, particularly among domestic brands [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The number of used cars available for sale reached over 780,000 units in April, marking a record high for a single month [5]. - The competitive landscape in the used car market is stabilizing after initial price adjustments, with brands finding new market positions [5]. - The article anticipates a moderate increase in used car transaction volumes in May compared to April [5].