尽管面临美国关税压力和地缘紧张局势，印度政府预计本财年经济增速将超过7%，该国仍将保持全球 主要经济体中增长最快的地位。 印度仍是少数几个未与美国达成贸易协议的主要经济体之一，不确定性对经济前景构成压力。美国总统 特朗普去年8月对印度出口商品征收50%的关税，这是亚洲地区最高税率。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普1月4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提 高对印度产品征收的关税。2025年8月，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，对印度输美商品加征惩 罚性关税。 关税重创了印度劳动密集型出口行业，包括纺织品、宝石珠宝和皮革制品。高盛集团预计，即使假设印 度与美国在3月前达成贸易协议，下一财年印度经济增速也将放缓至6.8%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月7日，印度统计和计划实施部发布的预估数据显示，截至明年3月的财年国内生产总值预计增长 7.4%，略低于经济学家中值预期7.5%。最终数据将在财年结束后公布。值得注意的是， ...

一觉醒来订单没了，工厂停了，账上还得倒贴几千万，这日子谁能扛得住？ 印度制造业刚燃起的一点希望，硬是被美国的关税大棒砸得稀碎。 2025年8月， 美国对印度商品加征的50%惩罚性关税正式生效，印度对美出口的拳头产品——成衣、虾类、宝石珠宝首当其冲。 泰米尔纳德邦的厂商们眼睁睁看着1500 亿卢比的大订单蒸发，全邦每天损失近6亿卢比，地方首席部长急得直接给莫迪写信，语气近乎哀求。 蒂鲁普尔市是印度南部的成衣制造中心，这里庞大的工厂和小型作坊网络雇佣了超过60万人。 关税生效后，成千上万的裁布工、剪线工和缝纫机操作员突 然失业了。 32岁的检验员萨诺伊·库马尔在关税生效后被告知"工厂里没有工作了"。 产量全面下降了25%，仍在生产的工人工作时间和工资也被大幅削减， 美国买家甚至开始要求高达20%的折扣以抵消关税成本。 印度的海产品出口同样遭遇重创。 美国是印度海产品出口的最大市场，占其海产品出口总额的三分之一。 2025年9月，印度海产品出口同比下降了30%至 35%，最大虾产区安得拉邦的多家加工厂被迫停工。 一位印度海产公司的总监表示，过去向美国出口的代理商需求已经枯竭，美国大型买家正在减少从印 度的采购量。 ...

Core Insights - India's gold imports in October reached a record high of $14.72 billion, nearly tripling year-on-year, significantly impacting the country's trade deficit, which expanded to a historic $41.7 billion [1][2][3] - The surge in gold imports is attributed to festive demand, with consumers estimated to have purchased $11 billion worth of gold during a five-day festival period in October [1][2] - The increase in imports coincides with a decline in exports to the U.S., which fell by 8.5% to $6.3 billion in October, influenced by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods [4] Gold Import Dynamics - In the first seven months of the fiscal year (April to October), gold imports totaled $41.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.44% [2] - Switzerland remains the largest source of gold for India, accounting for approximately 40% of imports, with a significant increase of 403.67% in October [2] - Silver imports also saw a substantial rise, jumping 528.71% to $2.71 billion in October [2] Trade Deficit Analysis - The record trade deficit of $41.7 billion in October surpassed market expectations and previous records, indicating a significant impact from increased gold imports [1][3] - ICRA Research forecasts that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP could rise to 2.4%-2.5% in the third quarter of the fiscal year [3] Export Performance - The U.S. remains the largest export destination for India, with exports totaling $52 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year, despite recent declines [4] - Major export categories such as gemstones, jewelry, and engineering products experienced significant drops, with jewelry exports down 29.5% in October [4] Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have yet to yield an agreement, although there are indications of softened positions from both sides [5]

Core Insights - The India-US bilateral trade agreement appears to be nearing completion, with most issues reportedly agreed upon, but India emphasizes that any decision will prioritize national interests over external pressures [1][3][4] - Tariff issues are central to the negotiations, with the US imposing high tariffs on Indian exports, leading to a significant drop in India's exports to the US [4][7] - India is considering some concessions, such as relaxing import restrictions on corn and soybean meal, while firmly protecting its agricultural markets to safeguard local farmers [6][10] Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely limiting market access for Indian products [4] - India's exports to the US fell from $6.87 billion in August to $5.43 billion in September, a decrease of $1.4 billion in just one month [4] - India is unlikely to compromise on agricultural products, as approximately 60% of its population relies on agriculture, with 85% being small farmers [6][10] Energy Procurement Issues - The procurement of Russian oil remains a contentious topic, with the US pressuring India to reduce its purchases, but India maintains that its energy security is paramount [9][12] - Despite US sanctions on Russian oil producers, India has reduced its Russian oil imports from 1.2 million barrels per day in September to 800,000 barrels per day in October, which may be seen as a gesture towards the US [12] Conclusion on Negotiation Strategy - India's approach to the negotiations is cautious, balancing the need for trade agreements with the protection of domestic interests [13] - The potential for an agreement hinges on mutual concessions, particularly regarding tariffs and agricultural imports, with both parties needing to demonstrate goodwill for a successful outcome [13]

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and India, particularly following the U.S. imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which has led to significant diplomatic silence from Indian Prime Minister Modi [1][2][3] - The tariffs are a result of two executive orders from the Trump administration aimed at pressuring India to change its energy policies regarding Russian oil imports [3][14] - The impact of these tariffs is expected to severely affect India's export industries, particularly labor-intensive sectors [11][12] Tariff Impact on Indian Industries - The textile and apparel industry, a key sector for India, is expected to face significant profit erosion due to the 50% tariff, as it heavily relies on the U.S. market [4] - The jewelry sector has been warned of potential supply chain disruptions and a substantial reduction in overall export volume due to high tariffs [5] - The shrimp farming industry, which is India's largest seafood export category, will be severely impacted by the tariffs [6] - The carpet and furniture manufacturing sectors are also expected to suffer from a sharp decline in demand due to increased prices [7][8] Exemptions and Future Risks - The pharmaceutical industry currently enjoys tariff exemptions, but there are threats of a 200% tariff if trade disputes escalate [9] - The electronics and IT hardware sectors are temporarily shielded from tariffs due to strong demand in the U.S. market [10] - The oil products sector maintains its exemption but must remain vigilant regarding international oil price fluctuations and potential policy changes [10] Export Projections - A report from the Global Trade Research Initiative predicts that India's exports to the U.S. will plummet from $87 billion in FY2025 to $49.6 billion in FY2026, with approximately 66% of exports facing tariff impacts [11] India's Response Strategies - The Indian government is implementing measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including suspending import duties on certain raw materials and accelerating trade negotiations with other countries [12] - Diplomatically, India is maintaining a firm stance, prioritizing the protection of its farmers and small businesses while continuing to purchase Russian oil despite U.S. pressure [12][13] - Indian companies are also taking proactive steps, such as state-owned oil companies pausing Russian oil purchases until further government guidance is provided [13] Broader Implications of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. aims to weaken Russia's oil revenue through these tariffs, which could have broader implications for global trade dynamics [14] - Concerns are rising that the U.S. approach to weaponizing tariffs may disrupt existing trade rules and accelerate the fragmentation of the global trade system [15]