行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 自动驾驶发力，出行公司先行 ——汽车行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 11 月累计批发销量仍在合理区间 乘用车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同 期下降 7%，较上月增长 1%，今年以来累计零售 2,151.9 万辆，同比增长 6%；11 月 1-30 日,全国乘用车厂商批发 299.2 万辆，同比去年同期增长 2%，较上月增长 2%，今年以来累计批发 2,676.6 万辆，同比增长 11%。 新能源：11 月 1-30 日,全国乘用车新能源市场零售 135.4 万辆，同比去 年同期增长 7%，较上月增长 6%，今年以来累计零售 1,150.4 万辆，同比 增长 20%；11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 172 万辆，同比去 年同期增长 20%，较上月增长 7%,今年以来累计批发 1,377.7 万辆，同比 增长 29%。 政策企业齐发力，智能驾驶/自动驾驶发展持续深入 12 月 1 日，上 ...

同时，小鹏汽车与华为加速双向奔赴。此前，造车新势力与华为合作较少，但 2025 年以来小鹏汽车与华为两次联手，均是首发汽车行业 的重磅技术。 6 月 5 日，小鹏汽车与华为联合发布车载 AR-HUD （增强现实抬头显示） ——" 追光全景 " 抬头显示，并且首发搭载车型是小鹏汽车旗 下 G7 。 联手华为应对下一代增程难题 【导读】小鹏汽车今年再次联手华为，打造下一代增程 " 心脏 " 中国基金报记者 邱德坤 12 月 2 日，小鹏汽车与华为宣布，小鹏 X9 超级增程全球首发华为 DriveONE 全栈高集成高压油冷发电机。 来源：小鹏汽车 据悉，华为 DriveONE 全栈高集成高压油冷发电机作为下一代增程的 " 心脏 " ，是小鹏 X9 超级增程实现下一代增程愿景的核心支撑之 一。 据悉，车辆运动能力是智能辅助驾驶普及与能力提升的底座，也将成为下一阶段产品力的重要塑造点。 小鹏汽车副总裁、汽车技术委员会主席顾捷表示，在小鹏 X9 超级增程研发之初，传统增程系统无法满足下一代增程大七座性能指标的要 求。 小鹏 X9 超级增程作为一款 800V 超高压平台大七座车型，采用 63.3kWh 超快充磷酸铁锂大电池 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show featured 93 global premieres, a significant increase from 78 last year, but the expected excitement was notably absent [1] - Despite the increase in new car launches, the event experienced lower attendance and engagement compared to previous years [1][4] Group 1: New Energy Brands - New energy brands like Xiaomi and Xpeng had less impactful presentations compared to previous events, with fewer high-profile product launches [4][9] - The absence of key executives like Lei Jun and Yu Chengdong at the event contributed to a lack of excitement, as their presence typically generates significant media attention [5][9] - The new energy brands focused more on technology explanations and market performance rather than launching groundbreaking new models, leading to a subdued atmosphere [9][18] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - Traditional automakers showcased a stronger lineup of new energy vehicles, with models like GAC Toyota's Platinum 7 and Audi's E SUV concept drawing more attention [13] - The traditional brands view the Guangzhou Auto Show as a critical platform for strategic positioning and sales momentum, contrasting with the new energy brands' more pragmatic approach [14][36] - High-end sub-brands from traditional manufacturers attracted significant media interest through celebrity appearances and engaging marketing strategies, enhancing their visibility [22][27] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift in focus from generating traffic to achieving actual sales reflects a broader industry trend where new energy brands prioritize efficiency and profitability over mere visibility [17][21] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new energy brands increasingly relying on online channels for customer engagement and sales, reducing their dependence on physical auto shows [17][18] - Traditional brands, while leveraging their established market presence, may risk over-reliance on celebrity endorsements, potentially diverting resources from essential areas like technology development and customer service [31][36] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The contrasting experiences at the Guangzhou Auto Show highlight a fundamental shift in the automotive industry, moving from hype-driven strategies to more sustainable business practices [32][36] - Both new energy and traditional brands must prove their value through innovation, customer experience, and cost management as competition intensifies [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive sector, anticipating a bottoming and upward trend in Q1 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is currently experiencing a cooling sentiment due to the impact of trade-in quotas, with October retail sales falling below expectations and November expected to perform moderately. The fourth quarter is also anticipated to underperform previous market expectations. However, the sector is expected to find a bottom and begin to rise in Q1 2026, presenting potential investment opportunities for the upcoming year [1][2]. Data Tracking - In early November, the discount rate for vehicles increased to 10.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The average discount amount rose by 23,103 yuan, with significant fluctuations among major brands [3]. - In October, new energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed a notable increase for BYD, which delivered 442,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. Other companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng also reported significant year-on-year growth [3][20]. - Traditional automakers also saw growth in October, with Geely's sales reaching 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [3][23]. Industry News - The report highlights several key developments in the automotive industry, including the launch of new models and significant sales figures for new energy vehicles. For instance, from November 1 to 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 554,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% [30][31]. - The report also notes the introduction of advanced technologies in new models, such as the Deep Blue L06 and the Xiaopeng X9, which feature cutting-edge battery systems and autonomous driving capabilities [30][31].

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show will feature 93 global debut vehicles, with 629 of the total 1,085 vehicles being new energy models, representing nearly 60% of the exhibition [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.98% in October, with a year-to-date rate of 52.71%, indicating a significant shift towards electrification in the automotive market [1] - New energy vehicles have transitioned from being a supporting role to becoming the main focus at the auto show, highlighting the industry's transformation [1] Industry Trends - The auto market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," leading to intensified competition and brand differentiation, with technology iteration and price restructuring occurring simultaneously [4] - New energy vehicles are now the primary attraction at major auto shows, reflecting a shift in consumer interest and market dynamics [5] New Vehicle Highlights - XPeng Motors will unveil its first range-extended vehicle, the XPeng X9 Super Range Extender, at the auto show, which boasts a comprehensive range of 1,602 km and a pure electric range of 452 km [6][8] - The new XPeng X9 aims to capture a larger market share in the popular 300,000 RMB hybrid MPV segment, leveraging its established presence in the pure electric MPV market [8] - The new AITO M9 and other models from traditional manufacturers are also set to showcase their latest offerings, emphasizing the competitive landscape in the high-end SUV market [25] Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's new model, the AITO M8, and other competitors like Tesla's Model 3 are dominating the 250,000-300,000 RMB pure electric sedan market, creating challenges for new entrants like the AITO S9 [12] - Leap Motor plans to introduce three new models, including the Leap Lafa 5 and D19, targeting different market segments with a diverse product lineup [13][16] - The high-end electric vehicle segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional automakers focusing on technology upgrades and market segmentation to capture consumer interest [25][28] Strategic Moves - Lido's new L80 model aims to provide a more affordable five-seat option, enhancing its market appeal by optimizing space and reducing entry costs [18][24] - Lantu will showcase three flagship models at the auto show, emphasizing its self-developed hybrid technology and targeting various consumer needs [26][29] - Zeekr's upcoming model, the Zeekr 8X, is positioned as a "mini flagship," aiming to leverage the success of its larger counterpart, the Zeekr 9X, in the competitive SUV market [30][35] Conclusion - The Guangzhou Auto Show is set to highlight the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, with a focus on technology advancements and market segmentation [41] - The competition in the high-end SUV market is intensifying, as brands strive to establish their presence and differentiate their offerings in a crowded marketplace [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company recently held the 2025 Xiaopeng Technology Day, unveiling its second-generation VLA large model, Xiaopeng Robotaxi, a new humanoid robot IRON, and a flying car. Additionally, the X9 Super Range Extender has begun pre-sales, starting at 350,000 yuan [4][7] - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 30.68 billion yuan in 2023 to 159.05 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 59.7% from 2025 to 2027 [6][10] - The company aims to leverage its AI capabilities and mass production capacity to explore new business models and expand into embodied intelligence [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.87 billion yuan, 81.97 billion yuan, 130.88 billion yuan, and 159.05 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.2%, 100.6%, 59.7%, and 21.5% [6][10] - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 5.79 billion yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.68 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [6][10] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 14.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [12] Product Development and Innovation - The second-generation VLA model enables direct output from visual signals to action commands, enhancing the AI capabilities of vehicles, humanoid robots, and flying cars [7] - The company plans to launch three Robotaxi models by 2026, utilizing a pure visual technology approach without relying on high-precision maps [7] - The humanoid robot IRON is expected to enter mass production by the end of 2026, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a humanoid design [8] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven automotive solutions and innovative transportation methods, including flying cars and humanoid robots [8] - The introduction of the X9 Super Range Extender aims to address common issues faced by traditional range extender users, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors experienced a significant stock price increase, with shares rising over 14% during intraday trading and closing nearly 10% higher following the demonstration of its humanoid robot, IRON, which was confirmed to have no human inside [2][5][24]. Group 1: Humanoid Robot Demonstration - CEO He Xiaopeng publicly demonstrated the internal structure of the humanoid robot IRON, cutting open its left leg to show its mechanical components, which is a rare move in the industry [5][16]. - The demonstration aimed to address public skepticism regarding whether the robot contained a human, with He Xiaopeng expressing emotional commitment to proving the robot's authenticity [7][17]. - The robot's unveiling at the 2025 Xiaopeng Technology Day generated significant attention, leading to public doubts that prompted the need for further demonstrations [9][11]. Group 2: Entry into Extended Range Market - Xiaopeng Motors officially entered the extended range vehicle market with the launch of its new Kunpeng Super Extended Range technology, marking a strategic shift from its previous focus solely on pure electric vehicles [19][20]. - The decision to enter this market was influenced by global market conditions, including varying charging infrastructure and user needs in different regions, such as Mexico and Australia [21][23]. - He Xiaopeng projected that the company's revenue and sales scale would see significant growth in 2026 and 2027 compared to 2025, indicating confidence in the new market strategy [25].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is experiencing a cautious atmosphere as investors await updates on US-China trade discussions and the upcoming US interest rate decision, leading to a volatile outlook for the Hong Kong stock market [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower but managed to recover, closing up 58 points or 0.22% at 26,446 points, while the Tech Index outperformed with a gain of 54 points or 0.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Dynamics - Over 200 family offices have established operations in Hong Kong, surpassing the target set in the 2022 Policy Address, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as a leading cross-border private wealth management center in Asia [6] - The total asset management value in Hong Kong exceeded 35 trillion yuan at the end of last year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13%, with net capital inflow increasing over 80% to 705 billion yuan [6] - The government plans to continue optimizing policies, including tax incentives for funds and family offices, to sustain the growth momentum in the wealth management sector [7] Group 3: Real Estate Market - In the first eight months of the year, China's new residential property sales fell by 7.3% year-on-year, with total sales amounting to 5.5 trillion yuan [8] - Real estate development investment also declined by 12.9% year-on-year, totaling 6.03 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [8] Group 4: Company News - Tencent is reportedly planning to issue offshore RMB-denominated bonds for the first time in four years, with a total principal amount of $17.75 billion in outstanding notes [10] - Shengjing Bank has raised its privatization offer by approximately 21%, increasing the initial offer price for H shares from 1.32 to 1.6 HKD [11] - XPeng Motors announced the upcoming launch of its new model, the XPeng X9, which has undergone extensive testing across various environments [12]