26 星期三 2025年11月 信息来源：网络 编辑-楓華 感恩节前的市场，像一幅流动的画卷，色彩斑斓又充满变数。美联储的鸽派信号、人工智能的热潮，以 及加密货币的无厘头波动，共同编织了一场复杂的金融交响。全球投资市场里的新老韭菜们既兴奋又忐 忑，仿佛置身于一个不断切换光影的舞台。 市场苦等的那只鸽子 当纽约联储主席和理事先后释放鸽派信号时，市场的情绪瞬间发生转向。从谨慎观望到试探入场，投资 者的心态如同秋风掠过水面，轻轻搅动起涟漪。纳斯达克和标普反弹，风险资产短暂获得喘息，但背后 的故事，比数字更耐人寻味： 在经济和政策的交汇点，每一次表态都像是一面风向标，让人重新思考风险与机会的边界。 大空头再发警世恒言 人工智能板块这两天的反弹引人注目，但市场的热情里，也潜伏着焦虑。迈克尔·伯里，这位准确预测 2008年金融危机的大空头，再次提醒市场：历史总喜欢重演。二十年前的互联网泡沫与今天的AI狂 潮，有着惊人的相似——投资者往往被成长的想象力所吸引，而忽略了盈利的现实。 伯里的提醒不仅是警告，也像是一面镜子，映照出投资者在泡沫与现实之间徘徊的心理。正如政策制定 者公开保证市场安全，但经验告诉我们，过度自信往往孕育 ...

铜基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 86. 080 | 0. 49% | 86040 | -0. 05% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 10. 782 | 0. 03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期货 | 沪铜指数 202. 995 | -12, 770 | 514. 667 | -2.808 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 11.776 | -12, 188 | 328.000 | 6.652 | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动。 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 43. 816 | -5,974 | | | | | 伦铜 155.750 | 725 | 3. 55% | -0. 73% | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | 21-06 | -18. 89 | 19.95 | | | 保税区仓单升水 | 34 | 34 | OPET | | | 保税区提 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock index futures show strong resilience. Treasury bond futures are expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy. Precious metals are likely to continue rising due to factors such as a dovish Fed and tight inventory. Various commodity futures are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and different trading strategies are recommended for each [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the third - quarter reports. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a bull put spread option strategy in case of a sharp one - day decline [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise. Gold's short - term resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and silver remains strong above $51 (11800 yuan). Buying call options and taking profits on rallies is recommended [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 in the short term [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the RB2601 contract, hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The I2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 750 - 800. It is recommended to hold the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The JM2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1170 - 1290. Consider a 1 - 5 coking coal calendar spread arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The J2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1780. Consider a 1 - 5 coke calendar spread arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The CU2512 contract is in a narrow - range oscillation, with the main support around 86500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The AL2601 contract is testing the 22000 resistance level. Other aluminum - related contracts have their respective price ranges and trading suggestions [3]. - **Zinc**: The ZN2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 22300 - 23000 [3]. - **Tin**: Hold long positions in the SN2512 contract as the supply side remains tight [3]. - **Nickel**: The NI2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 124000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The SS2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 12800 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Si2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **Polysilicon**: The PS2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50000 - 58000 due to rumors of a storage platform [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. Pay attention to the performance at the previous high [3]. - **PX**: The PX2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 6200 - 6800. Reduce long positions on rallies [3]. - **PTA**: The TA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4300 - 4800. Reduce long positions and consider a 1 - 5 rolling reverse spread [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The PF2512 contract's processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. Shrink the spread on rallies [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The PR2601 contract's processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Its single - side trading is similar to PTA [3]. - **Ethanol**: Hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of no less than 4100 for the EG2601 contract and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [3]. - **Benzene**: The BZ2603 contract is expected to be shorted on rallies following the oil price [3]. - **Styrene**: The EB2512 contract's price is expected to be shorted on rebounds [3]. - **LLDPE**: Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory reduction for the L2601 contract [3]. - **PP**: Stay on the sidelines for the PP2601 contract as trading volume has improved and the basis has strengthened [3]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the MTO spread for the 05 contract of the MA2601 contract [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Stay on the sidelines for the SH2601 contract in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the V2601 contract as the supply - demand imbalance persists [3]. - **Soda Ash**: Wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds for the SA2601 contract [3]. - **Glass**: Treat the FG2601 contract as weak in the short term as spot sales have weakened [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: Stay on the sidelines for the RU2601 contract as short - term driving factors are limited [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for the BR2601 contract in the medium term, and pay attention to the 10800 resistance level [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: Consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the M2601 and RM601 contracts and wait for the USDA report [3]. - **Pig**: Hold a 3 - 7 reverse spread for the LH2601 contract as the previous low provides support [3]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the 2200 resistance level for the C2601 contract as the supply is temporarily tight [3]. - **Oil**: The P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. Pay attention to the bio - diesel policy and the USDA monthly report [3]. - **Sugar**: The SR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5550 [3]. - **Cotton**: The CF2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13400 - 13600 [3]. - **Egg**: Hold short positions in the 2512 contract of the JD2601 contract as the supply is still abundant [3]. - **Apple**: The AP2601 contract may reach the previous high of 9300 [3]. - **Jujube**: The CJ2601 contract is expected to weaken [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, creating a strong bullish momentum [2] - Gold prices have effectively broken through the $4200 level, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought territory (>80), suggesting a potential short-term technical pullback [2] - Key support levels to watch are $4200-$4195, with further support at $4180-$4172 if the first level fails [2] - The upward target is set at $4250, with a potential move towards $4300 if this level is surpassed [2] - The overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices hold above the $4180 support level, amidst a weak dollar and high global uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trading Strategy for Gold - The trading strategy focuses on a bullish layout, recommending to enter long positions when prices pull back to the $4218-$4115 range [4] - The $4200 level is identified as a critical defense line for both long and short positions; a break below this level suggests exiting the market [4] - The primary focus is on the breakout of the $4250 level, as the market remains in an upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing mixed factors, with short-term supply abundance putting pressure on prices, while declining Russian oil exports and cautious OPEC+ production increases may provide some support [5] - The technical outlook for WTI crude oil shows a clear bearish structure, with prices operating within a descending channel and moving averages indicating a bearish trend [5] - Key price levels to monitor include a potential drop below $58, which would lead to further support at $56.20, while a stabilization and breakout above $60 could signal a short-term rebound [5] - The current market is constrained by "oversupply" and "high inventory" pressures [5] Group 4: Demand Recovery and OPEC+ Monitoring - Short-term observations should focus on the demand recovery pace in Asian countries and the U.S.; continued weakness in demand may keep oil prices under pressure [7] - Mid-term trends will depend on OPEC+ meetings and whether stronger supply adjustment measures will be implemented, which could be a key variable in changing the current trend [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity futures, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: PTA, ethylene glycol, palm oil, PVC, and crude oil had positive weekly price changes with rates of 3.22%, 1.41%, 1.40%, 1.31%, and 1.13% respectively from August 18 to August 22, 2025. While silver, methanol, gold, copper, aluminum, corn, pig, iron ore, soybean meal, rebar, polysilicon, glass, and coking coal had negative changes, with coking coal dropping 5.53% [2] - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had positive weekly price changes of 4.18%, 3.87%, and 3.38% respectively [2] - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100, France CAC40, and Hang Seng Index had positive changes of 2.00%, 0.58%, and 0.27% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index and Nikkei 225 had negative changes of - 0.58% and - 1.72% respectively [2] - **Bonds**: The 5 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Chinese government bonds had positive price changes of 4.20%, 2.21%, and 1.83% respectively [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate had a positive change of 0.16%, while the US dollar central parity rate and the US dollar index had negative changes of - 0.07% and - 0.12% respectively [2] 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate purchase restrictions, expectations of further stimulus policies, central bank's net liquidity injection, and increased trading volume and record - high margin trading balance. Bearish factors included weaker - than - expected economic data, cooling effect of earnings reports, over - heated small - cap stock trading, and short - term correction risk after a rapid rise [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 2 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, lower - than - expected social financing and credit data, and the central bank's clear attitude to maintain market liquidity. Bearish factors included the strong stock market, seasonal issuance peak in the third quarter, more sensitive stock market to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and weak expectation of further policy easing [4] 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, unexpected decline in US crude oil inventory, seasonal rebound in US gasoline crack spread, and potential increase in sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors included weak euro - zone macro - economy, OPEC +'s planned production increase, significant production growth in Latin American countries, and weakening of crude oil calendar spread [5] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included lower - than - expected US biodiesel exemption, slow inventory growth in Malaysia, low - inventory environment before the production - reduction period, and declining inventory in Indonesia. Bearish factors included the Indonesian palm - oil industry's call to re - evaluate the B50 plan, rising inventory in China, short - term correction risk after a sharp rise, and a significant increase in Indonesia's palm - oil production in June [5] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish remarks, improved macro - sentiment, tight overseas mine supply, and expected increase in downstream restocking demand. Bearish factors included uncertain impact of tariffs on demand, increased non - US supply due to US copper tariff policy, stable but weak restocking demand at high prices, and increased domestic electrolytic copper production in July [6] 3.2.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included real - estate policy - driven demand improvement, traditional demand peak season in September, and enhanced bottom - valuation support. Bearish factors included lower spot transaction prices, large premium of the 01 contract, increasing inventory pressure of float - glass factories, and weakening cost support from coal price decline [6] 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish speech, US economic stagflation expectation, and mid - term de - dollarization logic. Bearish factors included the market having priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, progress in trade negotiations, and lack of strong upward momentum [7] 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included the eighth round of coke price increase, high expected molten - iron output, stricter safety supervision before early September, and a coal - mine accident in Fujian. Bearish factors included increased Mongolian coal imports, weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, expected production cuts by downstream steel mills and coking plants at the end of August, and the opening of the Australian coal import window [7]

Market Overview - On July 30, gold prices showed narrow fluctuations, trading around $3329.35 per ounce, following a rebound on July 29 where prices peaked at $3333.93 and closed at $3326.35, marking an increase of approximately 0.36% [1] - The rebound occurred after a significant drop to $3302, the lowest point since July 9, indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment [1] - Key factors influencing this volatility include the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, critical developments in US-China trade negotiations, and fluctuating global risk sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a small bullish candle for gold, with attention on potential further rebounds and pullbacks [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3345-$3350, while support levels are noted at $3320 and $3310 [3] - A breakout above $3350 could lead to further upward movement towards $3380-$3400, while failure to maintain above $3300 may result in testing lower support levels [3] Short-term Strategy - A trading strategy suggests buying near $3320 with a stop-loss at $3312, targeting $3345 for a potential reversal to short [4]

Group 1 - The most active gold futures for December 2025 rose by $12.1 to close at $3,383.0 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.36% [1] - The rise in gold prices was supported by an increase in oil prices and a slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields, helping gold to end a four-day losing streak [1] - International oil prices surged over 3% due to increased U.S. pressure on Russia, impacting the overall market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure recently due to a trade agreement between the U.S., Japan, and Europe, which alleviated trade war concerns [1] - Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile until the Federal Reserve provides guidance on future interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is anticipated to maintain the current federal funds rate, but any dovish signals could support gold prices [1] Group 3 - Long-term market analysts remain optimistic about gold, suggesting that a clearer dovish path from the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar and enhance gold's appeal as a hard asset amid rising fiscal deficits [1] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease in job openings to 7.44 million in June, down from 7.71 million in May, which was below economists' expectations of 7.51 million [2] Group 5 - Silver futures for September delivery increased by 5.5 cents, closing at $38.385 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 0.14% [3]