证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 行业轮动 TF策略周报 (20260105-20260111) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn 2026年1月12日 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF币值 | 持有情况 | 重分申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 25. 95 | 调入 | 航空装备 (53.1%) | 1 | 1 | ...

工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取50只涉及机床整 机及其关键零部件制造和服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机床产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现，并涵盖人形机器人所需零部件及生产设备相关标的。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 国开证券表示，国家创业投资引导基金启动，目标是通过中央财政出资1000亿元，吸引其他资本参与， 形成万亿资金规模，服务新兴产业和未来产业，促进科技创新与产业创新融合。基金设有20年存续期， 鼓励企业开展原创性和颠覆性技术攻关，支持关键共性技术转化，为机械设备行业注入长期资本，推动 产业升级和技术突破，或可关注工业母机、人形机器人板块。 资金面看，工业母机ETF（159667）近20日净流入超2.8亿元，国家创业引导投 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20260105, the model recommends allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports. The strategy will newly hold products like Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, Rare Metals ETF, and continue to hold products like Gold Stocks ETF [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Update - Multiple ETFs are adjusted in the portfolio, including Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, etc. [3] Performance Tracking - From 20251229 - 20251231, the strategy's cumulative net return is about -1.44%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about -0.80%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return is about 30.30%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about 7.80% [3] ETFs' Information - Information on ETFs' market value, holding status, heavy - held Shenwan industries and weights, and timing signals are provided [3] ETFs' Adjustment in the Recent Week - Some ETFs are调出, and the future - week strategy recommends new holdings and continued holdings [3][12]

Market Overview - The market experienced a continuous pre-holiday rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving ten consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both rose over 0.5% during the session [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] A-share Outlook - Several favorable factors are expected to support the performance of A-shares in the coming year, including a marginal improvement in manufacturing driven by "anti-involution," global liquidity easing, and a low interest rate environment encouraging institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][13] - Investors are advised to focus on broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) that bundle leading companies across various industries, and consider a "barbell" strategy combining technology and dividends as a satellite strategy [1][13] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold ETF (518800) fell by 2.05% due to overnight market fluctuations, although long-term support for gold prices remains strong from factors such as interest rate cuts, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions [3][16] - Recent volatility in precious metal prices was influenced by a significant rise in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $84 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous week's closing price [3][16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised silver futures margins by 25% to address recent volatility, potentially forcing leveraged traders to partially liquidate positions [4][17] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a notable increase, with the Robotics Industry ETF (159551) rising by 3.20% and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) increasing by 2.23% [6][18] - The growth in this sector is attributed to robotics being the ultimate carrier of AI, with expectations of significant developments in the U.S.-China competition landscape [6][19] - Tesla's upcoming V3 version is anticipated to evolve towards lightweight, compact, and highly integrated designs, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 next year [6][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector performed well, with the Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% [7][22] - PX prices have been increasing due to tight supply driven by rising demand for upstream toluene/xylene and the impact of downstream polyester filament and BOPET [8][22] - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for "anti-involution," supported by nearing capacity limits, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [9][23]

工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取50只涉及机床整 机及其关键零部件制造和服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机床产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现，并涵盖人形机器人所需零部件及生产设备相关标的。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 根据wind数据，工业母机ETF（159667）盘中净流入2900万份，资金抢筹布局。 相关机构表示，机器人是AI的终极载体，有望成为中美竞争的下一个主要赛道。海外方面，特斯拉V3 版本或将沿着轻量化、小型化、高集成度、高稳定性等方向演化，预计明年Q1有望发布，后续将开启 量产。国内方面，新产品与新技术百花齐放，宇树、智元、乐聚、云深处、银河通用等资本运作不断加 速，后续相关企业上市有望对板块形成催化。 12月30日，工业母机ETF（159667）涨超2%，资金面看，盘中净流入近3000万份，人形机器人催化持 续。 ...

有券商表示，随着设备更新和增量政策效果逐渐落地，叠加机床更新周期持续，机床下游需求有望逐渐复 苏，推动机床企业经营业绩改善。因此，看好制造业复苏和设备更新带来的机床行业需求好转，建议关注 机床行业细分领域龙头。 每日经济新闻 每经记者：叶峰 每经编辑：肖芮冬 机床概念股走强，绿的谐波涨超7%，创世纪涨超3%，汇川技术、柏楚电子涨超2%。 受盘面影响，工业母机ETF、机床ETF涨近2%。 ...

12月26日，工业母机ETF（159667）涨超0.7%，资金面看，近20日净流入超2.1亿元，关注工业母机自 主可控投资机会 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取50只涉及机床整 机及其关键零部件制造和服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机床产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数成分股主要集中于机械设备行业，具有较高的行业集中度特征，侧重制造业领域。 国金证券指出，关注工业母机自主可控投资机会。由于日本机床产业发展成熟且实现了全产业链本土配 套，从核心零部件例如数控系统、丝杠导轨到加工中心整机均在中国有较高份额，后续实现自主可控必 要性较强。一方面建议关注数控系统、丝杠导轨等核心环节龙头企业，一方面建议关注低估值的通用机 床龙头。 ...

Market Overview - The market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven-day winning streak, closing up 0.47% at 3959.62 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.3%, while the STAR Market 50 Index fell by 0.23% [1][11] - A-shares saw a total trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day's 1.9 trillion yuan, with over 3700 stocks rising across the market [1][11] - Sectors such as aerospace, military, robotics, and insurance led the gains, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced a pullback [1][11] Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cycle adjustments to better utilize monetary policy tools for economic stability and reasonable price recovery [4][14] - The ongoing release of policy dividends is expected to further boost total economic demand, accelerating the transition of economic growth momentum and reinforcing the long-term positive logic of the capital market [4][14] - The CSI A500 Index, focusing on advanced manufacturing and information technology, is positioned to better capture opportunities in industrial structure upgrades compared to traditional broad-based indices [4][14] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing a strong performance, driven by accelerated capital operations and positive market sentiment. A notable acquisition in Hong Kong aims to integrate precision manufacturing capabilities and supply chain resources [5][15] - The industry is at a critical juncture for large-scale production, with Tesla's Optimus robot achieving significant breakthroughs, supporting its 2026 production goals [5][15] - The total order volume for humanoid robots has exceeded 30,000 units this year, indicating a continuous growth trend towards commercialization [6][15] AI in Healthcare - AI in healthcare is gaining market attention, supported by policy initiatives and technological innovations. The National Health Commission and other ministries have outlined plans for AI applications in healthcare, aiming to establish clinical models and smart applications by 2027 [8][18] - The total procurement orders for medical IT projects, including pilot bases, have surpassed 1 billion yuan since December, indicating accelerated development in the AI healthcare sector [8][18] - Major internet companies are actively developing AI healthcare applications, with significant user engagement reported for various platforms [8][18] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is a key area for AI applications, with potential for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in innovative drugs and high-end medical devices [9][19] - Domestic healthcare policies are supportive of innovative drug development, with promising prospects for the internationalization of innovative drugs and medical devices [9][19] - The industry is expected to see enhanced competitiveness and improved market conditions, making it an attractive area for investment [9][19]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159663 | 机床ETF | 1.496 | 0.044 | 3.03% | | 159667 | 工业母机ETF | 1.514 | 0.045 | 3.06% | 有券商表示，随着设备更新和增量政策效果逐渐落地，叠加机床更新周期持续，机床下游需求有望逐渐复苏，推动机床企业 经营业绩改善。因此，看好制造业复苏和设备更新带来的机床行业需求好转，建议关注机床行业细分领域龙头。 机床概念股走强，华工科技涨超6%，大族激光、厦门钨业、绿的谐波涨超3%。 受盘面影响，机床ETF、工业母机ETF涨超3%。 ...

工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取50只涉及机床整 机及其关键零部件制造和服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机床产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数成分股主要集中于机械设备行业，重点聚焦制造业领域，具有较高的行业集中度特征。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华龙证券表示，"十五五"点名工业母机，政策驱动下国产机床高端化进程有望加快。2025年10月28日， 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》公布。建议提出，加强原始创新和 关键核心技术攻关。完善新型举国体制，采取超常规措施，全链条推动集成电路、工业母机、高端仪器 等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。政策驱动下，国内高端制造领域对高精度、高稳定性、 高复合化的五轴机床、数控铣床、车铣复合中心等需求将有望增加。具备高端产品研发能力和核心部件 自研能力的公司值得关注。 ...