好 究 所 行业轮动 [F策略周报 (20250922-20250928) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月29日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 13.51 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (58.23%) | 1 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on industry rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending sectors such as agriculture, film and cinema, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately -0.21% for the period from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.16% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 6.36% [3]. Strategy Update - For the week of September 22, 2025, the model recommends increasing positions in the following ETFs: Grain ETF, Film ETF, Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and Oil & Gas ETF, while continuing to hold Aerospace ETF and Green Electricity ETF [2][10]. - The report includes specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a focus on sectors like agriculture (46.77% in Grain ETF) and film (45.35% in Film ETF) [10]. Performance Tracking - The report details the performance of various ETFs over the past week, highlighting that the average return of the ETF portfolio was -0.37%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of -0.21% [11]. - The report also notes that certain ETFs, such as the Green Electricity ETF and Aerospace ETF, continue to be held despite recent performance fluctuations [11].

Group 1 - The engineering machinery industry continues to show a trend of stabilization and recovery, with leading manufacturers achieving positive growth in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [1] - The domestic market benefits from the smooth issuance of special bonds and the acceleration of national major engineering projects, leading to sustained demand release [1] - In the overseas market, demand is improving in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, with China's engineering machinery product exports increasing by 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - In the automation equipment sector, NVIDIA has released a new generation of robotic computing platform, Jetson Thor, which supports multimodal AI models, laying a hardware foundation for robotic perception and decision-making capabilities [1] - UBTECH has formed a strategic partnership with international investment institutions to promote the development of humanoid robot ecosystems [1] Group 3 - In the semiconductor equipment sector, the escalation of U.S. restrictions on China may accelerate the domestic substitution process, with sustained demand for the expansion of domestic advanced production lines [1] - Semiconductor equipment is seen as a key link for the self-controllable industrial chain, presenting development opportunities [1] Group 4 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects 50 constituent stocks from the A-share market, covering machine tool manufacturers and key component suppliers [1] - The index primarily allocates to industries such as machinery manufacturing, electronics, new energy, and robotics, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in China's machine tool and related equipment manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The "High-Quality Standard System Construction Plan for Industrial Mother Machines" was issued on September 1, focusing on six levels: basic general, design matching, manufacturing equipment, manufacturing processes, inspection and testing, and industry applications, consisting of 34 major categories and 17 subcategories, with dynamic adjustments based on industry development [1] - Key tasks outlined in the plan include accelerating the development of urgently needed standards, promoting the revision of series standards, strengthening the development of standards in cross-disciplinary fields, and enhancing the internationalization of standards [1] - The machine tool industry has shown signs of recovery this year, with total revenue for the industry reaching 578.9 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. Notably, metal cutting machine tools grew by 13.3% and metal forming machine tools by 10.7% [1] Group 2 - The production of metal cutting machine tools reached 483,000 units, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year, while the production of metal forming machine tools was 100,000 units, up 8.7% year-on-year [1] - The demand for high production efficiency in key components for humanoid robots has led to the introduction of specialized machine tools, such as high-precision thread grinding machines, by domestic and international manufacturers [1] - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the machine tool manufacturing and related technology development sectors [2]

Group 1 - The "High-Quality Standard System Construction Plan for Industrial Mother Machines" was issued on September 1, focusing on six levels: basic general, design matching, manufacturing equipment, manufacturing processes, inspection and testing, and industry applications, comprising 34 major categories and 17 subcategories, with dynamic adjustments based on industry development [1] - Current key tasks include accelerating the development of urgently needed standards, promoting the revision of series standards, strengthening the development of standards in cross-integration fields, and enhancing the internationalization level of standards in China [1] - The industrial mother machine sector has seen positive developments this year, with a focus on core technologies and common technologies, emphasizing independent innovation and strengthening the pilot verification platform to address weaknesses in the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and related technology development to reflect the overall performance of the machine tool industry [2] - The China Securities Machine Tool Index has high industry representativeness, focusing on the industrial machinery sector, and reflects the market value and technological strength of related enterprises [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs constructed by Hengtai Securities Research Institute has achieved certain results. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. - For the week of August 25 - 29, 2025, the model recommends allocating sectors such as communication equipment, industrial metals, and batteries. The strategy will newly hold products like Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and continue to hold products such as Communication Equipment ETF, Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Satellite ETF [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Construction - Hengtai Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs according to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2]. 3.2 ETF Portfolio Information | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Holding Status | Heavy - held Shenwan Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159583 | Communication Equipment ETF | 2.68 | Continue to hold | Communication equipment (73.61%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF | 18.08 | Continue to hold | Industrial metals (54.97%) | 1 | 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 48.90 | Add to portfolio | Battery (60.37%) | 1 | 1 | | 588170 | Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF | 4.09 | Add to portfolio | Semiconductor (87.1%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.53 | Add to portfolio | Automation equipment (45.3%) | - 1 | 1 | | 159206 | Satellite ETF | 2.05 | Continue to hold | Military electronics (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 516150 | Rare Earth ETF Harvest | 58.89 | Add to portfolio | Minor metals (34.67%) | 1 | 1 | | 560170 | Central State - owned Enterprises Science and Technology ETF | 14.17 | Add to portfolio | Aviation equipment (22.35%) | 1 | 1 | | 588830 | Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF | 5.73 | Add to portfolio | Photovoltaic equipment (47.93%) | 1 | 1 | | 159698 | Grain ETF | 2.06 | Add to portfolio | Planting industry (48.33%) | 1 | 1 | [3] 3.3 Performance Tracking - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of August 25, 2025, products such as Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF will be newly held, while products like Gold Stock ETF, Game ETF, and Innovation Drug ETF will be removed from the portfolio [3][12].

Group 1 - Machine tool concept stocks have strengthened, with Greentech Harmonic rising over 4%, and Haomai Technology and Genesis both increasing over 2% [1] - The machine tool ETF and industrial mother machine ETF, which track the China Securities Machine Tool Index, have both risen over 2% [1] - The China Securities Machine Tool Index selects 50 listed companies involved in the manufacturing and service of machine tools and key components, reflecting the overall performance of machine tool industry securities [2] Group 2 - Brokers are optimistic about the recovery of machine tool demand due to the gradual implementation of equipment renewal and incremental policies, along with the ongoing machine tool renewal cycle [2] - It is suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the segmented fields of the machine tool industry as their operational performance is expected to improve [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for humanoid robots and their core components will significantly increase as the mass production process accelerates [1] - The processing precision of core components for humanoid robots is higher than that of industrial robots, particularly for planetary roller screw drives, which face challenges in complex surface forming, multi-component collaborative precision control, and material performance optimization [1] - Mainstream processing methods for planetary roller screw drives include cyclone milling, hard turning, and grinding, with thread grinding machines becoming the primary solution [1] Group 2 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing [1] - The constituent stocks of the index cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the machine tool industry chain, focusing on manufacturing upgrades and high-end equipment sectors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Machine Tool ETF Initiated Link A (017471) and Link C (017472) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3400 points and reaching a new high for the year [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies for the Second Half - Investors often mistakenly believe that strong-performing funds from the first half will continue to perform well in the second half, which is a significant misconception in fund investment [3] - The best-performing funds in the first half of 2023 were those focused on the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector, with several ETFs and equity funds achieving over 50% gains [4] - Historical data indicates that funds that performed well in the first half often see a decline in performance by the end of the year, as seen with AI and gaming-focused funds in 2023 [4][5] Group 2: Focus Areas for Investment - The technology growth sector is expected to become a key market focus again in the second half, driven by strong performances in the U.S. stock market, particularly in AI-related companies [6] - The robotics sector remains a promising area for investment, with several funds achieving over 40% gains despite previous adjustments due to valuation concerns [7] - Dividend funds are gaining popularity due to their stable cash flow and bond-like characteristics, with many achieving positive returns in 2023 [10] Group 3: REITs Market Expansion - The REITs market has been expanding, with a total of 73 products now available, focusing on emerging sectors like new infrastructure and smart cities [12] - REITs have shown strong performance in 2023, with specific products like the Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT and Hua Xia Da Yue Cheng Commercial REIT achieving over 50% and 49.58% gains, respectively [12]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing major technological upgrades and large-scale equipment renewal projects in the manufacturing sector, expected to unlock a market exceeding 5 trillion yuan [1] - In Q1, the national enterprise procurement of machinery and equipment increased by 11% year-on-year, continuing a rapid growth trend [1] - The machinery and equipment industry is showing a structural recovery, with excavator sales in April 2025 increasing by 17.6% year-on-year, driven by domestic sales growth of 16.4% and export growth of 19.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for domestic machinery is benefiting from a concentrated renewal cycle, relaxed real estate policies, and national renewal policies [1] - In the automation equipment sector, industrial robot production surged by 51.5% year-on-year in April, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy stimulating equipment renewal demand [1] - Despite a decline in the manufacturing PMI to 49%, government support for "two new" and "two heavy" projects is expected to create incremental demand for general equipment such as machine tools [1] Group 3 - The machinery industry is driven by policy support, technological iteration, and globalization, with a focus on self-control and domestic demand in engineering machinery and general equipment [1]