大摩称，美图一方面利用AI技术深化产品功能以提高国内用户付费意愿，设定未来三年内总付费率翻倍至8-10%的目标； 另一方面调整海外策略，从单纯追求付费用户转向并重月活跃用户增长，意图打开欧美等市场的新增长空间。而AI工具 RoboNeo被视为提升个性化推荐和加速付费率增长的关键，计划9月开始商业化。 硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利8月25日发布的研报，美图管理层提出了一个关键目标：在未来三年内， 将公司产品的总付费率从2024年的4.7%提升至8-10%。这一目标若能实现，意味着其核心的订阅业务收 入将有翻倍的潜力。 同时，公司调整海外策略，从单纯追求付费用户转向并重月活跃用户增长，意图在欧美市场打开新的增长 空间，抓住TikTok普及带来的新机遇。 基于这一增长路线图，摩根士丹利将美图的目标价上调9%至15.7港元，并维持"增持"评级。该行分析师 Lydia Lin和Yang Liu在报告中指出，美图在利用生成式AI、专注核心业务以及审慎划定业务边界方面展现 出的能力，使其长期增长潜力值得看好。 投资者正密切关注即将到来的2025年9月，届时美图计划启动其AI工 ...

Core Insights - Meitu's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, driven by a 45.2% surge in imaging and design product revenue to 1.35 billion yuan, resulting in a 27.3% increase in overall gross profit [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 71.3% year-on-year to 467 million yuan, indicating strong financial performance despite a high base [1] - The company has transitioned from an internet application company to an AI application company, with AI penetration in its products reaching approximately 90% [1][3] AI as a Growth Driver - AI is viewed as the primary driver of Meitu's current growth, with features like "AI dressing" and "AI flash" generating significant user interest and increasing the paid subscription penetration rate to 5.5% [3] - The launch of RoboNeo, an intelligent product capable of generating logos, posters, videos, and interior design sketches based on user instructions, has quickly gained traction, amassing millions of monthly active users [3] - Meitu's strategy focuses on deepening its presence in "vertical scenarios," such as the "Kaipai" tool for video production, which has successfully captured market demand by simplifying complex tasks [3][4] Business Model and Market Strategy - The company emphasizes a focused approach by identifying under-served scenarios and launching precise products, allowing for rapid market validation and iteration [4] - Meitu is particularly attentive to the e-commerce sector, leveraging high digitalization levels to offer AI automation solutions, thus positioning itself as a service provider to sellers [4] - The company aims to expand its exploration beyond e-commerce into broader commercial scenarios, maintaining its identity as an AI application company focused on imaging and design [4] Global Expansion and Localization - As of June 30, 2025, Meitu's global monthly active users reached 280 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and 98 million users outside mainland China, reflecting a 15.3% increase [5] - The company's growth is attributed to both AI technology advancements and a localized strategy that tailors products to regional user preferences [5] - Meitu's approach to global markets varies, with Southeast Asia favoring lifestyle and social media products, while the U.S. and Europe lean towards productivity applications [5][6] Competitive Edge and Challenges - Meitu's competitive advantage lies in its aesthetic capabilities, supported by a team of over a hundred designers who continuously research design trends [6] - The company acknowledges challenges in understanding cultural needs in various countries, particularly in Western markets, which will be a focus for future efforts [6]

Core Viewpoint - Meitu has emerged as a "star company" in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a market capitalization increase of nearly HKD 38.5 billion, entering the HKD 50 billion market cap club [2][3] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Former chairman Cai Wensheng reduced his stake in Meitu, cashing out over RMB 1.1 billion this year, bringing his ownership down to 11.94% [2][9][10] - Cai Wensheng has shifted focus to the Web3 sector after resigning as chairman in 2023 [2][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - Meitu's adjusted net profit for the first half of 2023 is expected to grow by 65% to 72% year-on-year, driven by a rise in paid subscription users for its core "image and design products" [4] - For the full year 2024, Meitu reported revenue of RMB 3.341 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, with the image and design products segment growing by 57.1% [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Meitu partnered with Alibaba, which conditionally agreed to subscribe to USD 250 million in convertible bonds, potentially acquiring up to 6.85% of Meitu's shares [4] - The partnership includes a commitment for Meitu to purchase cloud services worth RMB 560 million from Alibaba over three years [4] Group 4: Market Performance - Following the announcement of the partnership with Alibaba, Meitu's stock price surged approximately 19% on the first trading day [5] - As of August 8, 2023, Meitu's stock price was HKD 11.19 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 51.1 billion [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing high growth in its imaging product business, driven by AI capabilities and a successful global expansion strategy [2][10]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.34 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, with a gross margin of 68.7% [10]. - The company has a total MAU of 266 million as of December 2024, with a significant increase in paid subscription users [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2.696 billion RMB in 2023 to 6.013 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [4]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 378 million RMB in 2023 to 1.302 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 40.00 in 2023 to 37.23 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Business Segment Projections - The imaging and design products segment is anticipated to generate revenue of 2.088 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 57.1% [14]. - The beauty solutions segment is expected to decline, with revenues projected to decrease by 32.4% in 2024 [14]. - Advertising revenue is forecasted to grow steadily at 10% annually from 2024 to 2027 [14]. User Growth and Engagement - The company aims to increase its global paid user base to 15.76 million by 2025, with a subscription penetration rate of 5.9% [13]. - The average annual revenue per subscription user is projected to rise gradually, reaching 215 RMB by 2027 [13]. - The company has launched several AI-driven features, enhancing user engagement and expanding its product offerings [10][13]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has secured a $250 million convertible bond investment from Alibaba, which will facilitate strategic cooperation in e-commerce, AI, and cloud computing [10][13]. - Alibaba will prioritize promoting the company's AI e-commerce tools on its platforms, providing essential technical support [10].

Core Viewpoint - Meitu is a leading domestic imaging tool company that has undergone substantial changes in its fundamentals since 2023, focusing on core imaging and design product business after management changes and the sale of all cryptocurrency holdings [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2008, Meitu started with the image editing software "Meitu Xiu Xiu" and has built a diverse ecosystem covering imaging tools, design products, and beauty industry solutions [1] - The company has accumulated deep technical capabilities, aesthetic data, and user insights over more than a decade, driven by a focus on R&D rather than sales [1] Group 2: Business Focus and Changes - In June 2023, the founder and CEO Wu Xinhong replaced Cai Wensheng as chairman, indicating a shift towards a more focused business strategy [1] - The introduction of GenAI is expected to enhance product capabilities, increasing consumer life scenarios and expanding new product categories for business productivity [1] Group 3: Consumer Market Insights - Meitu's core consumer products, such as Meitu Xiu Xiu and Beauty Camera, cater to self-satisfaction and social needs, primarily targeting female users from the post-90s and post-00s generations [2] - There is significant potential for the domestic consumer market's payment rate to double, driven by generational shifts in the beauty and imaging sector [2] Group 4: Business-to-Business (B2B) Opportunities - The competitive landscape for Meitu's B2B products, including Meitu Design Studio and Kaipai, has eased, with AI operations replacing traditional studio shoots, helping e-commerce merchants reduce costs [2] - A strategic partnership with Alibaba is set to enhance the promotion of Meitu's AI e-commerce tools on Alibaba's platforms, facilitating penetration into small and medium e-commerce clients [2] Group 5: International Expansion - Since the second half of 2024, Meitu has increased investments in overseas markets, establishing offices and hiring local staff, which has led to a resurgence in overseas monthly active users (MAU) [3] - Successful AI features like "AI Hairstyle" and "AI Outfit Change" have contributed to the growth of Meitu's overseas products, demonstrating the effectiveness of technical advancements and localized operations [3] Group 6: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 851 million, 1.163 billion, and 1.509 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 37%, and 30% respectively [3] - A target price-to-earnings ratio of 50x for 2025 suggests a target market capitalization of 46.6 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the closing price on June 19, 2025 [3]

上 市 公 司 计算机 2025 年 06 月 20 日 美图公司 (01357) —— AI 与美学交融，国内影像领军新成长（GenAI 系列 之 60） 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 19 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.66 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8410.94 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.36/2.07 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 349.77 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 4,566.18 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0944 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -21% 479% 06/19 07/19 08/19 09/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 01/19 02/19 03/19 04/19 05/19 06/19 HSCEI 美图公司 资料来源：Bloomberg 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meitu has signed a $250 million convertible bond agreement with Alibaba, indicating a strategic partnership that will enhance Meitu's capabilities in e-commerce, AI technology, and cloud computing [1][2][7]. Group 1: Investment Details - Alibaba's investment of $250 million in Meitu is structured as a convertible bond with a three-year term, allowing Alibaba to convert the bonds into shares at a price of HKD 6.00 per share, reflecting confidence in Meitu's growth potential [3]. - The investment will not only provide Meitu with operational flexibility but also enhance its working capital for business expansion and acquisitions [3][5]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Meitu's business model has evolved through three key phases: from an advertising-based revenue model to a subscription-based membership system, and now to a focus on AI productivity tools [3][5]. - By the end of 2024, Meitu's AI-driven imaging and design business is projected to generate revenue of CNY 2.086 billion, marking a 57.1% year-on-year growth and surpassing 60% of total revenue for the first time [3][5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - Meitu has re-emphasized its focus on imaging and design products, launching tools like "Meitu Design Studio" and "Kaipai," which have shown strong user engagement and revenue growth [4][5]. - The "Meitu Design Studio" has surpassed 1.13 million paid subscribers, generating CNY 200 million in annual revenue, while "Kaipai" has achieved over one million monthly active users [4]. Group 4: Strategic Collaboration with Alibaba - The partnership with Alibaba is expected to leverage Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem to enhance Meitu's AI tools, improving marketing and operational efficiency for merchants [8][9]. - Meitu will also benefit from Alibaba's technical support in AI model development and cloud services, committing to purchase at least CNY 560 million in cloud resources over the next three years [10]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The collaboration between Meitu and Alibaba is positioned as a potential benchmark for AI application in the e-commerce sector, with the AI application market projected to grow significantly from $5.1 billion in 2024 to approximately $47.1 billion by 2030 [8]. - This partnership is seen as a strategic consensus on the logic of AI application deployment, potentially marking a milestone in the commercialization of AI applications [11].

Group 1 - The current technological revolution and industrial transformation are deepening, with a focus on image and graphics technology as a core technology for smart manufacturing and economic development in China [1][3] - Meitu Inc. won two gold awards in the 2025 image and graphics field rankings, including the Pioneer Enterprise Award and the Innovative Technology Award [1][3] - The rankings aim to identify potential sci-tech enterprises and cutting-edge technological achievements in the image and graphics field, establishing industry benchmarks and promoting innovation and industrial development [3] Group 2 - Meitu Inc. integrates its long-accumulated AI imaging capabilities with user demand, transforming AI technology into tools for daily life and productivity through various products like Meitu Xiuxiu and Meiyan Camera [3] - Industry experts indicate that global technological innovation is accelerating, significantly promoting the commercialization of image and graphics technology, with Meitu leading the rapid development in vertical scenarios [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Meitu to HKD 6, with over 20 brokerage firms adjusting their target prices to around HKD 6-7, reflecting a 32-35 times PE for 2025 [1] - The maturity of Meitu's product matrix and business model, along with the promising prospects for productivity tools overseas, contribute to the positive outlook from institutions [1][2] - Meitu has conducted over 20 AI feature updates for its main lifestyle products in 2023, integrating AI technology with basic imaging functions to enhance user engagement and increase paid user rates [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs noted Meitu's expansion from lifestyle products to productivity tools, with a growing number of global paid subscribers expected to reach 12.61 million in 2024, resulting in a 4.7% penetration rate [2] - Huatai Securities highlighted that the overseas image market is approximately seven times larger than that of China, indicating significant potential for Meitu's international growth [2] - CICC projected that Meitu's subscription revenue will grow by over 40% year-on-year by 2025, driven by increased paid penetration and user growth [3]