液冷行业深度报告：千亿液冷元年已至，看好国产供应链 加速入局 20251211 摘要 数据中心散热需求激增及 PUE 限制推动液冷技术应用，液冷系统价值量 随服务器迭代迅速提升，预计未来冷却系统成本占比将翻倍至 10%左右， 2026 年全球 AIDC 液冷市场规模将达 1,100-1,150 亿元。 液冷技术分为间接接触式、直接接触式和喷淋式，单向冷板式在北美市 场占据主流，Inrow 模式适用于新建数据中心，Inrack 模式适用于数据 中心改造，随着 ASIC 需求增加，Inrack 模式需求也将逐步提升。 液冷板是液冷系统关键部件，技术壁垒在于微通道盖板的设计和制造， 其通过细小微通道提高传热效果，但制造难度高，对稳定性、不漏水要 求极高，快接头和 Manifold 等部件的可靠性和防漏性能亦是重要考量。 英伟达在 GB200 阶段指定维谛作为唯一液冷供应商，GB300 阶段放开 供应商权限，国产供应链迎来进入机会，未来随着英伟达商业模式转向 云服务，高性价比国产链需求将增加，有望在 Ruby Ultra 阶段迎来爆 发。 Q&A 目前液冷行业的发展趋势和市场前景如何？ 液冷行业在当前阶段表现出显著的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of global computing power demand driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and high-performance computing, leading to unprecedented cooling challenges for data centers. Liquid cooling technology is evolving from an optional solution to a necessary one due to its energy efficiency, low power consumption, and noise reduction advantages, especially in light of tightening national PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) requirements. The article outlines the evolution of liquid cooling technology, market landscape, and future trends, predicting that the global liquid cooling market will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, marking the beginning of a liquid cooling revolution driven by technology, policy, and industry collaboration [2]. Group 1: Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is essential for addressing the cooling pressures of data centers. It utilizes liquid to dissipate heat from components, leveraging the high thermal conductivity and heat capacity of liquids compared to air, resulting in lower energy consumption, higher cooling efficiency, and reduced noise [6][13]. - The core advantages of liquid cooling include low energy consumption, high cooling capacity (4-9 times that of air cooling), low noise levels, and lower total cost of ownership (TCO), with PUE values potentially dropping below 1.2 [13][26]. - The rapid increase in chip power density necessitates the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, as traditional air cooling struggles to meet the demands of next-generation architectures like NVIDIA's Rubin, which anticipates power densities reaching up to 600 kW [14][18]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The liquid cooling market is expected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2026, driven by technological advancements, policy support, and collaboration across the supply chain [2]. - The evolution of liquid cooling technology is characterized by the emergence of microchannel cold plates and phase change cooling plates, which enhance efficiency and customization [2][14]. - The article highlights the increasing importance of liquid cooling in meeting national PUE requirements, with policies pushing for lower PUE values, thereby promoting the adoption of energy-efficient technologies [22][25]. Group 3: Industry Applications and Solutions - Liquid cooling solutions are categorized into direct contact and indirect contact types, with single-phase immersion cooling being the primary development direction due to its high efficiency and energy savings [30][47]. - Single-phase cold plate cooling is expected to remain the mainstream solution for a considerable time due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure and lower retrofit costs [37]. - Immersion cooling offers high energy efficiency (PUE < 1.13) and supports high-density deployments, although it presents challenges in product design and maintenance [48][49].

东吴证券近日发布液冷行业深度：伴随芯片升级迭代，功率密度激增，相应液冷价值量也会随之快速增 长，以GB300-GB200服务器为例，根据我们测算，机架液冷模块价值量有望增长20%以上，未来随着 rubin架构升级，液冷价值量有望进一步提升。根据我们测算，26年预计ASIC用液冷系统规模达353亿 元，英伟达用液冷系统规模达697亿元。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 1.液冷技术：解决数据中心散热压力的必由之路 单相冷板无法适用于Rubin架构，Rubin架构的热设计功耗（TDP）达到2300W，整柜功率约200KW，而 单相冷板的设计上限为150KW/柜，因此无法适用于Rubin架构，需要引入新的液冷方案。1）可行方案 一：相变冷板：相变冷板通过液体工质在冷板内吸收热量后发生相变（通常是液态到气态），利用相变 过程中吸收的大量潜热来实现高效散热，一般来说相变冷板的介质为氟化液为主，适配单柜300KW+场 景；2）可行方案二：微通道盖板（MLCP），核心是将高度密集的微尺度冷却液通道网络直接置于冷 板基板下方或内部，通道宽度可从几十微米到几百微米不等，通道密度通常可达每平方厘米数百至数千 个。我们判断微通道 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，现阶段液冷的主要方案中冷板式占据主流地位，浸没式有望 成为未来的发展方向。随着国产液冷系统成熟度逐步提升，同时终端CSP更加注重产品性价比，国产链 有望作为一供直接进入英伟达体系内。当前AI服务器算力需求高速增长，带动液冷渗透率持续提升， 数据中心对高效、节能换热解决方案的需求进入爆发阶段，建议关注英维克(002837.SZ)、申菱环境 (301018.SZ)、高澜股份(300499.SZ)、宏盛股份(603090.SH)、中科曙光(603019.SH)及捷邦科技 (301326.SZ)等。 液冷技术：解决数据中心散热压力的必由之路 Rubin架构展望：微通道盖板&相变冷板为可选方案 单相冷板无法适用于Rubin架构，Rubin架构的热设计功耗(TDP)达到2300W，整柜功率约200KW，而单 相冷板的设计上限为150KW/柜，因此无法适用于Rubin架构，需要引入新的液冷方案。1)可行方案一： 相变冷板：相变冷板通过液体工质在冷板内吸收热量后发生相变(通常是液态到气态)，利用相变过程中 吸收的大量潜热来实现高效散热，一般来说相变冷板的介质为氟化液为主，适配单柜300 ...

3.产业链加速本土化集群。为应对快速的研发迭代，产业集群优势逐步显现，如PCB产业链国内下游高 份额之后，上游的覆铜板，覆铜板上游的树脂、玻纤布、铜箔等都开始了国内企业加速验证，光模块亦 是如此； 4.订单外溢。围绕份额变化投资，随着龙头公司订单外溢，整个产业链都呈现高景气度，部分公司份额 提升。 人民财讯11月26日电，中信建投发布算力产业链2026年投资展望，研报认为，展望2026年，算力领域有 以下投资机会： 1.龙头公司增长确定性：英伟达需要整个产业链研发能力快速迭代、快速响应。若能力不够很难进入英 伟达产业链，或者份额显著下降，PCB、光模块等龙头公司与下游芯片公司跟踪紧密、地位稳固，其中 PCB价值量未来将受益于正交背板使用、cowop工艺的提升； 2.新技术升级方向，英伟达阶段性着重解决问题的方向，是获取超额利润的子方向。2025年开始，系统 方案的供电、散热问题成为整个系统的瓶颈点。北美缺电越来越明显，电力系统需要更加稳定以及更加 高效的输送方式，关注HVDC和更高效的SST固态变压器等技术。同时随着芯片性能提升，散热方面遇 到越来越多的瓶颈，关注液冷板、CDU、UQD等领域企业份额提升的投资 ...

Core Insights - The global server cooling market is experiencing structural growth opportunities driven by increased AI server shipments and rapid penetration of liquid cooling technology, with projections indicating a market size of $17.6 billion by 2027 [1][3]. Market Growth Projections - The global server cooling market is expected to grow by 111% in 2025, 77% in 2026, and 26% in 2027, reaching $17.6 billion by 2027 [1][3]. - The AI training server cooling market is projected to expand from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $12.4 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 101% [1][3]. Liquid Cooling Penetration - Liquid cooling penetration for AI training servers is forecasted to rise from 15% in 2024 to 80% by 2027, with significant differentiation in penetration rates across market segments [2][4]. - Full rack AI training servers have achieved 100% liquid cooling penetration, becoming a key market driver [2]. Market Dynamics - The liquid cooling segment is expected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $15.2 billion by 2027, while the air cooling market remains relatively stable [3][4]. - The market is anticipated to peak in growth rate in 2025 before gradually declining, yet still maintaining strong growth [3]. Segment Analysis - The AI training server cooling market is expected to dominate, with growth from $4.5 billion in 2025 to $12.4 billion in 2027, while the general/HPC and AI inference server cooling markets will see more moderate growth [4]. - Liquid cooling penetration in the AI training server market is projected to reach 80% by 2027, indicating a clear technological direction [4]. Innovation and Supplier Requirements - Innovative cooling designs are being developed to meet the increasing thermal demands of AI servers, with a focus on enhancing both the quantity and value of cooling components [5]. - Suppliers are required to enhance their customization capabilities, design responsiveness, and production capacity to support new product introductions [5]. Component Innovations - New cooling technologies include 3D printed cold plates and microchannel solutions, which improve heat exchange efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent high interest in NVIDIA's new liquid cooling solution, specifically the microchannel lid, and its implications for the semiconductor industry [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley provided detailed analyses of the microchannel lid, highlighting its efficiency in heat dissipation compared to traditional cooling methods [5]. - The microchannel lid integrates a heat spreader and cold plate, allowing for efficient heat transfer and cooling, which is crucial as chip power requirements increase [8][11]. - The adoption of the microchannel lid could increase the number of quick disconnects (QD) in VR series compute trays to at least 12, compared to 8 in the existing GB300 compute trays [12]. - In the short term, the impact on liquid cooling suppliers is limited, as a significant portion of NVIDIA's GPU shipments will still use traditional cold plates [13]. - Currently, ODMs are in the testing phase for the microchannel lid, with a decision expected in one to two months [14]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - The microchannel lid concept was discussed in the industry as early as late August, with market speculation about its potential use in NVIDIA's Rubin GPU [15]. - Jentech, a key supplier for NVIDIA's lid products, is closely tied to NVIDIA's technology iterations and order fluctuations, which can influence its stock performance [16]. - The maturity of different cooling technologies ranks single-phase cold plates as significantly ahead, followed by dual-phase cold plates and immersion cooling, with microchannel lids lagging behind [18]. - Cold plate suppliers like AVC indicated that the microchannel lid may not be adopted until the release of the Rubin Ultra model, as current production timelines do not support its implementation [18]. - Companies are currently sending samples for the microchannel lid, but sample approval does not guarantee immediate procurement [19]. - Key players in the lid and cold plate sectors, such as Jentech and AVC, are conducting advanced research on microchannel lids, but it remains uncertain which company will dominate the market [21]. - Besides microchannel lids, 3D printing is also emerging as a cutting-edge research direction in the cooling field, offering high precision and customization capabilities [21].