当前时点如何看待 PCB 板块投资机遇？20260108 摘要 PCB 市场规模预计超 1,000 亿元，谷歌 TPU 出货量增加及 1.6T 交换机 量价齐升是主要驱动力，正交背板预计 2026 年底或 2027 年开始出货， 成为新增量。 预计 2026 年谷歌需求增长超 200%，亚马逊增长约 90%，英伟达增长 超 140%，交换机领域增长 160%，正交背板技术带来显著贡献。 现有 PCB 主要供应商包括盛弘、固电和台湾联能，GB300 领域新增方 正、景旺等。谷歌与亚马逊方面，现有供应商包括 ICU、镜像电和护电 深蓝等，未来可能新增盛宏、超亿、鹏岭和东山锦望等。 外资厂商如台湾新兴、金象电、韩国 ASU 及美国 TTM 产能扩张相对较 慢，ICU 计划扩产仅 10 个点，新兴与 TTM 资本开支不足，镜像电苏州 工厂具备一定供给潜力，资本开支提升 25%，但总体扩张速度较慢。 投资逻辑坚定龙头投资策略，关注从 0 到 1 突破的新兴黑马。关注谷歌 TPU V7/V8 芯片及亚马逊芯片相关 PCB 出货，以及英伟达正交方案测 试打样阶段。 Q&A 2026 年 PCB 市场的需求增长主要来自哪些方 ...

CoWoP 专家交流 20260107 摘要 客户推出 COCO 方案的背景是什么？主要考虑因素有哪些？ 客户推出 COCO 方案的背景主要是为了应对高速通信和数据传输需求的不断增 长。客户希望通过升级 PCB（印刷电路板）技术来提升整体性能。具体来说， 客户需要先研发出芯片，然后再进行 PCB 的设计和制造，以确保最终产品能够 满足其功能要求。每一款产品的升级标准和匹配要求不同，材料选择也会有所 公司预计 2026 年收入显著增长，达 20-30 亿元，得益于从试量产转向 大规模生产，以及平均单价从 4,000 多元提升至 7,000 多元每平方米。 当前主流芯片尺寸为 100mm*20mm，层数 12-18 层。超快激光广泛 应用于芯片制造，实现更小孔径。 全球 IC 载板扩产集中在高端产品领域，提升附加值和单价。国内企业如 星星科技、金威电子等正在扩产，单厂投资至少 13 亿元，钻孔设备占 比约 30%。新 IC 改版采用 PTFE 材料和超快激光技术，工艺流程与传 统 HDI 不同。 谷歌从 2025 年 11 月开始大量推出样品，计划下一年度大规模生产， 升级城市 HBI 和高多层领域，平均层数 4 ...

Core Insights - AI is undergoing a "stress test" as major cloud and chip companies experience significant stock declines despite strong earnings reports [1][2] - Oracle's completion timeline for data centers related to OpenAI has been pushed back from 2027 to 2028, contributing to market concerns [1] - CoreWeave's stock has also fallen, with a notable 46% drop attributed to a major tenant retracting a $150 million investment [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's remaining performance obligations surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, driven by demand from tech giants [1] - Broadcom reported Q4 revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor business growth at 34.5% and infrastructure software revenue up 19% [1] - However, both companies reported a negative free cash flow of $10 billion and a cumulative free cash flow of -$13.18 billion over the past 12 months [2] Market Concerns - There are rising warnings about an "AI bubble," with concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures by tech giants, potential "circular trading" in the industry, and whether future profits can match current high valuations [2] - Howard Marks highlighted that transformative technologies often lead to excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in overcapacity and inflated asset prices [2] Economic Perspective - Despite high capital expenditures, major tech firms are seeing an increase in return on invested capital, indicating economic viability [3] - The AI sector is still in its early stages of commercialization, with demand for computing power expected to grow due to advancements in multi-modal models and real-time inference [3] - The current valuation of AI-related companies remains relatively rational compared to historical bubbles, supported by the dual logic of revenue growth and cost reduction [3] Investment Opportunities - The optical module sector is identified as a core support for AI hardware, with increasing industry demand and the rapid scaling of 1.6T products [4] - Domestic computing power sectors are expected to benefit from relaxed export restrictions on advanced computing cards and accelerated IPO processes for local chip companies [4] - Investment strategies focusing on AI-related sectors, such as robotics and computing power, are recommended to capture potential growth opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaging in the development and supply of advanced circuit board solutions, particularly focusing on orthogonal backplanes and high-speed connectors to enhance server performance and meet increasing customer demands [2] Group 1: Product Development - The orthogonal backplane is recognized as a solution to optimize server space and heat dissipation, improving information exchange among computing units in large-scale computing clusters [2] - The company is closely monitoring the market for orthogonal backplanes and has made technical arrangements to support this development [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - The company has entered the NVIDIA and Google supply chain through OEM methods, providing specialized circuit board products necessary for the mass supply of high-speed connectors [2] - The company is actively collaborating with clients to meet rapid growth demands and is involved in the research, testing, and certification of next-generation products [2] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company aims to deepen its presence in its core areas while expanding into emerging sectors, actively promoting business development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on orthogonal backplane technology and high-speed connectors to enhance server space optimization and heat dissipation in large-scale computing clusters [1] Group 1: Technology Development - Orthogonal backplane is recognized as a solution for optimizing server space and heat dissipation, improving information exchange among computing units in large-scale clusters [1] - The company is closely monitoring this technology and making technical arrangements to capitalize on its potential [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - The company has entered the NVIDIA and Google supply chain through OEM methods, supplying specialized circuit board products necessary for high-speed connectors [1] - It is actively responding to customer demands for rapid increases in supply while participating in the research, testing, and certification of next-generation products [1] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company aims to deepen its advantages in existing fields while expanding into emerging sectors to promote business development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on orthogonal backplane technology and high-speed connectors to enhance server space optimization and heat dissipation in large-scale computing clusters [1] Group 1: Technology Development - Orthogonal backplane is identified as a key solution for improving information exchange among computing units in large-scale computing clusters [1] - The company is closely monitoring and making technical arrangements for the orthogonal backplane technology [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - The company has entered the supply chains of NVIDIA and Google through OEM methods, providing specialized circuit board products necessary for high-speed connectors [1] - The company is actively responding to the increasing demand from clients and participating in the research, testing, and certification of next-generation products [1] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company aims to deepen its advantages in existing fields while expanding into emerging sectors to promote business development [1]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights investment opportunities in the computing power industry by 2026, emphasizing the growth certainty of leading companies and the importance of technological upgrades and local industrial clusters [1] Group 1: Growth of Leading Companies - Leading companies like NVIDIA require rapid iteration and response capabilities across the entire industry chain, making it difficult for companies with insufficient capabilities to enter or maintain their market share in NVIDIA's ecosystem [1] - The value of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to benefit from the adoption of orthogonal backplanes and advancements in CoWOP (Chip on Wafer on Package) technology [1] Group 2: Technological Upgrades - From 2025, power supply and cooling issues are anticipated to become bottlenecks in system solutions, with a growing need for stable and efficient power delivery systems, highlighting investment opportunities in HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) and more efficient SST (Solid State Transformer) technologies [1] - As chip performance improves, cooling solutions will face increasing challenges, creating investment opportunities in liquid cooling plates, CDU (Cooling Distribution Unit), and UQD (Ultra-Quantum Dot) technologies [1] - The evolution of next-generation chip packaging solutions, such as microchannel lids, diamond substrates, and thermal interface materials, is identified as a crucial investment direction for enhancing AI chip performance [1] Group 3: Localization of the Industry Chain - The advantages of local industrial clusters are becoming evident as domestic companies accelerate the validation of upstream materials like copper-clad laminates, resins, fiberglass, and copper foil in the PCB industry, following the high market share of domestic downstream players [1] - Similar trends are observed in the optical module sector, indicating a broader shift towards local supply chains [1] Group 4: Order Spillover - The report notes that as leading companies experience order spillover, the entire industry chain is expected to exhibit high prosperity, with some companies gaining market share as a result [1]

Summary of PCB Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PCB industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure driven by AI demand, starting from Q4 2024, with growth expected to nearly double by Q2 2025 and continue through 2026 [1][2][4] - Supply constraints in upstream equipment and materials are becoming critical limitations [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Technological Advancements**: New technology iterations are driving structural and material upgrades in PCBs, increasing equipment precision requirements and enhancing equipment value and demand [1][2][5] - **High-End Materials Demand**: The demand for high-end materials, such as high-end electrolytic copper foil, has surged, with prices increasing by approximately 15% as forecasted by Japan's Mitsui and Taiwanese manufacturers [1][11] - **Orthogonal Backplane Development**: The orthogonal backplane solution is progressing steadily, having passed two rounds of testing, with expectations for product finalization in 2025 and mass production in 2026 [1][10][12] - **Drill Bit Technology**: The core of PCB drill bit technology focuses on improving breakage rates, with downstream material upgrades and increased single-board value driving continuous growth in drill bit demand [1][8] Market Dynamics - **Increased Equipment Demand**: As PCB technology evolves with smaller hole diameters and narrower line widths, the demand for equipment is rising, while precision improvements are leading to increased equipment value [3][9] - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies to watch include DingTai High-Tech, Chipbond Technology, and Dazhong CNC, as well as companies like Dazhong Laser and Kaige Precision that are positioned within the PCB industry chain [3][13] Additional Insights - **AI's Impact on Capital Expenditure**: The acceleration of capital expenditure in the PCB sector reflects successful advancements in AI PCB capabilities, with leading companies investing significantly in capacity expansion [4][12] - **Market Sentiment on New Materials**: The market holds a positive outlook on new materials and their applications, viewing them as crucial for future development, with expectations for breakthroughs in high-end materials [7] - **Challenges in Material Requirements**: The increasing complexity of PCB manufacturing processes necessitates higher performance standards for materials, including drill bits that must meet stringent durability and precision criteria [6][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call regarding the PCB industry, highlighting the interplay between technological advancements, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call on Zhongcai Technology and the Electronic Fabric Industry Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Zhongcai Technology and the electronic fabric industry, particularly the demand for low dielectric constant (low DK) and low coefficient of thermal expansion (low CTE) materials [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Order Growth and Market Dynamics** - NOCT orders have exceeded expectations, driving growth in the electronic fabric sector alongside increased demand for high-performance materials and orthogonal backplanes [2][3]. - The orthogonal backplane corresponds to a PCB market space of approximately $8 billion, with electronic fabric contributing 8%-9% of its value [2][7]. 2. **Market Projections for Low DK and Low CTE Materials** - Low DK electronic fabric demand is projected to grow from 90 million meters in 2025 to 230 million meters by 2027, with a significant compound annual growth rate [2][8]. - Low CTE fiber fabric is crucial for reducing chip deformation, especially in high-heat environments, with demand driven by companies like Huawei adopting advanced packaging techniques [2][11]. 3. **Supply Chain and Production Capacity** - Zhongcai Technology plans to reach an annual production capacity of 35 million meters by the end of 2026, while Honghe Technology aims for 20 million meters [4][17]. - The global supply landscape shows that overseas companies hold 50% of the market, with Zhongcai being the largest supplier at 20% [4][23]. 4. **Technological Advancements and Production Challenges** - The introduction of COROP technology has significantly increased the application space for low CTE materials [3]. - Production of low CTE materials faces high barriers, including drawing and surface treatment processes, leading to a relatively tight supply [12][16]. 5. **Future Market Potential** - The low CTE market is expected to reach a scale of 30 billion RMB by 2027, with domestic companies likely to capture a significant share of the profits [15]. - The market for low DK materials could expand to 20 billion RMB by 2027, driven by high-end product demand [9]. 6. **Competitive Landscape** - Zhongcai and Honghe are well-positioned to meet market uncertainties due to their comprehensive product structures [4][22]. - The competition is expected to intensify as companies like Feilihua and Linzhou Guangyuan also expand their production capacities [19][30]. Other Important Insights - The demand for low CTE materials is not only driven by AI applications but also by advanced packaging technologies used in high-end devices like Apple's M series chips [11]. - The electronic fabric industry is currently in a tight balance, with supply gaps expected to persist into 2025 despite rapid capacity expansions [23]. - The transition from traditional to advanced packaging techniques is anticipated to enhance the usage of low CTE materials significantly [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and competitive dynamics within the electronic fabric industry, particularly focusing on low DK and low CTE materials.

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]