中材科技 20250807 摘要 NOCT 订单增长超预期，叠加马久材料明确及正交背板需求超预期，共 同驱动电子布板块增长。正交背板对应 PCB 市场空间约 80 亿美元，电 子布价值量占比 8%-9%，Ruben Ultra 架构升级后占比可提升至 10% 以上，市场规模预计达 70 亿人民币。 Low DK 电子布需求预计从 2025 年的 0.9 亿米增长到 2027 年的 2.3 亿米，复合增速显著。其中，q 布占比将从 2026 年的 9%增加到 2027 年的 20%-25%，产生约 5,000 万米需求，国内企业有望占据大部分市 场份额。 Low CTE 纤维布通过降低热膨胀系数减少芯片变形，在芯片散热难度大 的背景下尤为重要。华为 AI 服务器采用堆叠工艺导致散热问题，开始使 用 low CTE 电子布，需求增长超预期。先进封装技术如 COWAS 和 COAP 也将显著提升 low CTE 材料用量。 全球 low CTE 纤维布主要供应商包括日东纺、太山波纤和红河科技，中 材科技和宏和科技也在积极扩产。Low CTE 材料生产工艺壁垒较高，包 括拉丝和表面处理等，导致行业供给相对紧张。 正交 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, indicating a potential upward trend in the industry [3] - The report discusses the upcoming changes in materials and technologies in the PCB sector, emphasizing the need for new materials to meet the demands of advanced applications [4][5] Summary by Sections New Materials - The M9 level copper-clad laminate (CCL) is expected to undergo significant upgrades, with upstream materials needing to evolve to meet requirements for low dielectric constant and low expansion coefficient [3][4] - Key materials such as quartz fabric, PPO, and hydrocarbon resin are anticipated to become important choices in the future [3] New Architectures - Orthogonal backplanes may replace copper cables as a crucial connection method within cabinets, offering advantages in high-speed transmission and reduced heat generation [4] - The use of orthogonal backplanes is expected to increase PCB usage per cabinet, thereby boosting upstream material demand [4] New Packaging Technologies - Advanced packaging techniques such as PCB process substrate, embedded components, and glass-based materials are evolving to reduce signal loss and improve power integrity [5] - The new packaging methods will require higher specifications for PCB dimensions and will necessitate collaboration across multiple stages, including testing and packaging [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various aspects such as technological capabilities, production expansion pace, and customer development [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the upstream materials segment include companies like Feilihua, Honghe Technology, and Zhongcai Technology [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the CCL segment include Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Materials [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the PCB segment include companies like Huitian Technology, Shenchao Technology, and Jingsheng Electronics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities emphasizes the strong sustainability of performance growth in companies, particularly in AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-control, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven beneficiary industries [1] Industry Insights - AI-PCB is experiencing a demand resonance, with multiple companies in the sector reporting strong orders and full production capacity, leading to high growth expectations for the second half of the year [1][3] - The demand for AI copper-clad laminates is robust, driven by the ramp-up of Nvidia's GB200 and ASICs, with a shift towards M8 materials in AI servers and switches, and potential future adoption of M9 materials [3] - The semiconductor industry indicators show a steady upward trend across various segments, including consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and passive components [1] Company Performance - TSMC reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%, with a gross margin of 58.6% [2] - TSMC's net profit for the same quarter was $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.2% [2] - TSMC has raised its revenue guidance for Q3 2025 to between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating an 8% quarter-on-quarter growth and a 38% year-on-year growth [2] - Nvidia is set to resume sales of H20 chips to China, with significant orders already received, while Oracle plans to invest $3 billion in Germany and the Netherlands over the next five years to enhance AI and cloud computing infrastructure [2]