Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The focus is on **NVIDIA** and the **AI PCB (Printed Circuit Board)** sector Core Points and Arguments - **NVIDIA's Performance**: - Fourth-quarter revenue increased by **73% year-over-year** to **$68.1 billion**, surpassing market expectations of **$65 billion** [1] - First-quarter revenue guidance is projected at **$78 billion**, reflecting a **77% year-over-year increase**, exceeding market expectations of **$73-75 billion** [1] - **Orthogonal Backplane Expectations**: - Anticipation for NVIDIA to showcase orthogonal backplane solutions at GTC, with large-scale shipments expected to begin in **2027** alongside the **Rubin Ultra 576 cabinet**, potentially adding approximately **$400 GPUPCB ASP** [2] - Orthogonal backplane remains the optimal solution for **tray-to-tray connections** under the **448G serdes upgrade demand** [2] - **CPO (Chiplet Packaging Option)**: - CPO integration is essential for interconnecting canisters, indicating no conflict with other technologies [2] - **LPU (Logic Processing Unit)**: - New LPU additions are expected to significantly enhance NVIDIA's inference capabilities [2] - Key benefits of LPU include: 1. Improved cost-performance ratio, benefiting inference and the overall AI industry [2] 2. Increased demand for high-speed interconnects, favoring PCB upgrades [2] 3. Optimization of AI investment structure, with PCB's share in AI BOM expected to rise from **3-5% to 5-10%** [2] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Continued optimism for the **AI PCB** sector due to ongoing upgrades, application expansions, and increased demand for inference/ASIC [2] - Anticipated tight supply-demand dynamics for high-end production capacity in the industry until **2027**, with leading companies expected to demonstrate high growth and certainty in performance [2] - Recommended stocks include **Shengsheng Technology**, **Hua Dian Co.**, **Shenghong Technology**, **Shennan Circuit**, and potential beneficiaries like **NVIDIA** [2]

PCB的催化又来了，LPU板层数又翻一倍 先看英伟达怎么说，"多跨越一个芯片，就多跨越一个接口，多跨越一个接口，就多增加延迟"。 所以LPU架构、正交背板架构、COWOP架构，还有一些现在并不知道的技术升级，是必然会发生的。 每个架构背后的逻辑，都是尽可能去减少芯片之间的传输距离，芯片堆叠多了，必然管脚会变得极其复杂，PCB 的加工难度、层数、精密度会极大程度增加，价值 PCB的催化又来了，LPU板层数又翻一倍 先看英伟达怎么说，"多跨越一个芯片，就多跨越一个接口，多跨越一个接口，就多增加延迟"。 每个架构背后的逻辑，都是尽可能去减少芯片之间的传输距离，芯片堆叠多了，必然管脚会变得极其复杂，PCB 的加工难度、层数、精密度会极大程度增加，价值量也会极大程度增加。 所以LPU用的50多层板单价至少四五万，70多层的正交背板单价能到三四十万。 PCB在整机柜中的价值量，从最初8卡服务器的1.5%，逐步提高到5%以上，未来有望到8%以上。 行业观点保持不变：产能极度紧缺，格局非常稳定。 #重点推荐：胜宏科技、沪电股份、鹏鼎控股、生益科技、生益电子等 新逻辑：载板今年必然还会涨价，已经成为制约芯片生产的有一大瓶颈，台 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. PCB (Printed Circuit Board) - The PCB sector has shown weak performance since Q4 of last year, primarily due to divergent market views on orthogonal backplane solutions, with some believing they may be replaced by copper cables/CPO or delayed until 2028. However, the orthogonal backplane is currently progressing steadily and is expected to enter mass production in H2 2027. Leading companies are experiencing stock price stagnation due to these divergences, highlighting their cost-effectiveness. Recommended companies include Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, and Huidian Co. [1] - The CoWoP (Chip on Wafer on PCB) solution has stronger certainty, can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and bypass the shortage of substrate capacity. The value per square meter of PCB may increase several times, potentially reaching tenfold, with product launches expected by the end of 2027 and full implementation in 2028. Recommended companies in this direction include Pengding Holdings, Shennan Circuit, and Xinsong Technology. [1] 2. Storage - Contract prices remain in an upward cycle despite fluctuations in spot prices. Module companies are expected to see explosive Q1 performance, with Jiangbolong and Demingli realizing low-priced inventory. Recommended design companies include Zhaoyi Innovation (with a profit expectation of 6 billion) and Puran Co., Beijing Junzheng, and Hengshuo Co. [2] - Demand for memory modules is driven by AI servers and general servers, with recommendations for Lanke Technology (long-term profit of 10 billion) and Jucheng Co. (long-term profit of 1.5 billion). [2] 3. Communication - The recent decline in optical modules is related to the pullback of US tech stocks and speculation around CPO concepts. However, industry sources (such as Coherent and Xuchuang) indicate that CPO's potential to replace optical modules in ScaleOut scenarios is low, suggesting that short-term speculation may be excessive. [2] - North American cloud service providers have exceeded capital expenditure guidance for 2026 (620 billion, up 65% year-on-year), indicating potential accelerated demand for optical modules in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include Nvidia's quarterly report (February 26), GTC conference (March), and OFC exhibition (NPO product showcase). Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and Dongshan Precision. [2] - For copper connections as a Plan B alternative to orthogonal backplanes, companies to watch include Luxshare Precision, Wokai Nuclear Materials, and Huiju Technology (with potential for stock doubling). [2] - The price of scattered fiber has surged in the short term (from 25 to 50 yuan), but the low willingness of operators to raise prices raises doubts about long-term sustainability. [2] 4. Computing - Domestic computing resources are in short supply, with the recent downtime of Qianwen highlighting the scarcity of AI foundational resources. The demand for CPUs is expected to rise due to increased usage of agents compared to chatbots. Recommended companies include Haiguang Information (benefiting from both CPU and GPU), Cambrian (leading domestic AI chip manufacturer), and Tianshu Zhixin (expected to accelerate integration with leading players). [2] - Cloud infrastructure resources are expected to benefit from price increases, with recommendations for Kingsoft Cloud, Wangsu Technology, and Fourth Paradigm. [2] - In the AI application sector, the recent drop in overseas software and restructuring of SaaS business models may lead to a narrative reversal with the launch of native agent products in Q3 2026. Companies to watch include Alibaba for 2C entry reconstruction and third-party AI agents like TaxFriend, Zhongkong Technology, and Dingjie Smart. [2] 5. Media - Tencent has faced a decline due to market concerns over potential tax increases on internet platforms, although there is no space for increased game value-added tax. The company remains recommended despite rumors of Q4 earnings downgrades, maintaining a PE ratio of 15 times, which still offers value. [3] - The download situation for the Yuanbao app remains stable, and Tencent's AI capabilities may be closing the gap with larger competitors. [3] - In gaming, companies with upcoming catalysts such as Giant Network and Perfect World are recommended for short-term focus, while Century Huatong and Kaiying Network are suggested for medium to long-term attention due to expected catalysts. [3] - Tencent's establishment of a separate AI comic app is beneficial for the production side, which is entering a period of profitability. Recommendations include Kuaishou, Huanrui, and Rongxin. [3] 6. Pharmaceuticals - Attention is drawn to the update of the essential drug catalog, which may accelerate progress. [4] - The probability of inclusion in the essential drug catalog is high for unique products, with several specific products from companies like Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Panlong Pharmaceutical being highlighted. [4] - Emphasis on the global competitiveness of the innovative drug industry chain, with a focus on new-generation ADCs, IOs, small nucleic acids, and CGT. Recommended companies include Kanghong, Yingen, Yunding, and Chengdu Xian Dao. [4] - The brain-computer interface theme is noted, with a potential showcase of non-invasive products during the Spring Festival and a semi-invasive product approval for Borui Kang in March. [4] - Recommendations include Meihua Medical, Dongwei Semiconductor, and Sanbo Brain Science. [5] - The surgical robot sector is expected to see comprehensive implementation of charging policies before August, with overseas orders doubling and maintaining high growth in 2027. Key types include laparoscopic and orthopedic robots, with strong overseas performance for laparoscopic robots. Recommended companies include MicroPort, Jingfeng Medical, Tianzhihang, and Sanyou Medical. [6]

Group 1 - Resonac, a Japanese semiconductor materials manufacturer, announced a price increase of over 30% for copper foil substrates (CCL) and adhesive films used in printed circuit boards (PCBs) starting March 1 due to tight supply and soaring prices of raw materials like fiberglass cloth [1] - Market rumors suggest that NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra may abandon orthogonal backplanes in favor of copper cable solutions, but industry insiders indicate that the core positioning of orthogonal backplanes remains unchanged [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, since the second half of 2025, Jiantao has raised prices three times in August, October, and December, with another increase in December exceeding expectations, indicating a positive pricing cycle across the entire industry chain driven by AI demand [1] Group 2 - Jiantao's stock (01888) has seen an increase of over 5%, with a current price of 13.96 HKD and a trading volume of 81.7041 million HKD [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, specifically focusing on the developments related to the orthogonal backplane technology and its implications for companies like Nvidia and the broader PCB market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Orthogonal Backplane Scheme Will Not Be Canceled** - The Kyber scheme has been established, with the orthogonal backplane being a core component. Nvidia has stated that by 2027, a single platform will accommodate 576 GPUs, which refers to the RubinUltra model. The design utilizes vertically stacked computing trays, confirming the orthogonal backplane route established at Nvidia's 2025 GTC conference and showcased again at the CES on January 6, 2026 [1][2]. 2. **Progress of Orthogonal Backplane is Steady** - The orthogonal backplane is currently in the secondary sample submission phase, with domestic manufacturers providing timely feedback. The product validation stage is ongoing, focusing on the 78-layer M9 Q solution, while PTFE solutions are also being explored. The emphasis on this technology is evident, as the value of PCB per cabinet is expected to double once the orthogonal backplane is confirmed [2]. 3. **Backplane Progress Does Not Affect Overall Industry Direction** - The AI chip market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% over the next five years. The shipment of PCBs is linearly correlated with GPU output, and the trend of increasing value per card remains unchanged. There is an anticipated high demand for PCBs over the next three years, with a significant supply shortage, indicating that short-term disruptions should not be overly concerning [2]. 4. **Concerns Over Supply Chain and Production Capacity** - Recent intensive research indicates a severe shortage of materials such as copper foil and fabric within the industry, leading to a widening supply-demand gap for PCBs. Leading PCB companies are expressing concerns regarding insufficient production capacity. The valuation for 2027 is projected to remain below 15 times, excluding the implicit expectations surrounding the orthogonal backplane [3]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The ongoing developments in the PCB industry are critical as they relate to the broader technological advancements in AI and GPU markets. The emphasis on the orthogonal backplane technology highlights the strategic importance of innovation in maintaining competitive advantage within the industry [1][2][3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 长江电子 (Changjiang Electronics) - **Industry**: Communication Solutions, specifically focusing on backplane technology Core Points and Arguments 1. **Orthogonal Backplane Viability**: - The orthogonal backplane remains the most reliable communication solution within the Rubin-Ultra framework despite concerns about its performance based on recent testing results [1] - Current backplane design utilizes 78-layer M9 material, with suppliers testing 94-layer and 104-layer options to enhance impedance performance and connector reliability [1] 2. **Signal Performance Improvement**: - A less dense wiring approach is expected to yield faster signal speeds and reduced interference, thereby improving transmission speed and minimizing signal disruption [1] 3. **Delay Risks**: - The risk of delay in the orthogonal backplane development is considered low, with M9 material still dominating the market, while PTFE material remains a potential alternative [2] - Nvidia has not abandoned PTFE material, which has a low loss factor, and plans to continue testing it to improve yield, processability, and stability [2] 4. **Current Progress**: - The orthogonal backplane is currently in the second round of sample submissions, with 15 samples expected to be delivered by mid-February [3] - Nvidia plans to showcase the orthogonal backplane at the GTC conference in March, indicating strong certainty of its implementation [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The ongoing competition between M9 and PTFE materials could influence the timeline and final decision on the backplane technology, as the uncertainty surrounding PTFE's development may affect the overall project schedule [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that JianTao Laminated Board (01888) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, currently trading at 13.96 HKD with a transaction volume of 81.7041 million HKD, driven by supply tightness and rising prices of raw materials like fiberglass cloth [1] - Resonac, a Japanese semiconductor materials manufacturer, announced a price increase of over 30% for copper foil substrates (CCL) and adhesive films used in printed circuit boards (PCB) starting March 1, due to supply constraints [1] - Market rumors suggest that NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra may switch from orthogonal backplanes to copper cable solutions, although industry insiders maintain that the core positioning of orthogonal backplanes remains unchanged [1] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, JianTao has raised prices three times in August, October, and December since the second half of 2025, with an unexpected price increase occurring twice within December, indicating a positive pricing cycle across the entire industry chain driven by AI demand [1] - The company is strategically positioned in copper foil, electronic cloth, and copper-clad laminates, and as an industry leader, it is expected to benefit from the price increase cycle across all segments [1]

Summary of PCB Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PCB market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, driven by increased shipments of Google's TPU and the 1.6T switch, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The orthogonal backplane is anticipated to start shipping by the end of 2026 or early 2027, contributing to new growth [1][2]. Key Demand Drivers - Demand growth in 2026 is primarily expected from Google, Nvidia, and the switch sector, with AI PCB demand projected to increase by over 200% due to the explosion of AIGC demand. The overall PCB market size is forecasted to surpass 100 billion yuan [2][3]. - Specific growth rates include: - Google: over 200% increase, mainly from increased shipment volumes - Amazon: approximately 90% growth - Nvidia: over 140% growth - Switch sector: 160% growth, significantly aided by new orthogonal backplane technology [3][4]. Major Suppliers and Capacity Expansion - Key players in the PCB industry include Shenghong, Gudian, and Taiwan Lianeng. New entrants in the GB300 sector include Fangzheng and Jingwang, increasing the number of potential suppliers from four or five to seven or eight [5]. - Current suppliers for Google and Amazon include ICU, Mirror Electric, and Hudean Shenlan, with potential new suppliers like Shenghong, Chaoyi, Pengling, and Dongshan Jinhwang, bringing the total number of suppliers for Google to around nine and for Amazon to about eight [5]. Foreign Manufacturers' Capacity Expansion - Foreign manufacturers such as Taiwan's Xinxing, Jinxiang Electric, Korea's ASU, and the US's TTM are expanding capacity at a relatively slow pace. For instance, ICU plans to increase capacity by only 10%, while Xinxing and TTM have insufficient capital expenditures. Mirror Electric's Suzhou factory shows some supply potential with a 25% increase in capital expenditure, but overall expansion remains slow [6]. Investment Logic and Focus Companies - The investment strategy remains focused on leading companies while also looking for emerging players that can achieve breakthroughs. Key areas of interest include shipments related to Google's TPU V7/V8 chips and Amazon's chips, as well as Nvidia's orthogonal solution testing phase [7][8]. - Notable companies to watch include Shenghong, Hudean, Dongshan, and Shengyi Technology, along with emerging firms like Pengding, Fangzheng, and Jingwang [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The AI PCB market is expected to see significant growth by 2026, but supply will still be insufficient to meet demand. By 2027, as most capacity comes online, the supply-demand relationship may balance or even lead to oversupply. However, until the end of 2026, the market is expected to remain in a state of supply shortage [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses advancements in the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on NV and its competitors in the optical module and IC substrate markets. Key Points and Arguments NV's Developments - NV is attempting to combine narrow boards with PCBs to address high-speed communication issues and has tested advanced HDR processes to reduce costs. The new solution is expected to be finalized for mass production by March 2026, with a price of approximately 6,700 RMB per square meter. Major clients like Amazon and Google are in the certification process [1][5][6]. - The company has delivered over 23,000 square meters of orthogonal backplane to NVIDIA and has an additional order of 18,000 square meters, including 16 samples, expected to be completed by mid-2026 [1][7]. Material Comparisons - The new material, referred to as "Ma Jiu," outperforms PTFE in functionality, environmental standards, and high-temperature resistance, although it has not yet reached mass production. It is more suitable for high-performance applications [1][4]. - The current small-batch production backplane has more than 70 layers, primarily using a combination of Ma Jiu and PTFE materials, supplied by companies like Taiguang, Doosan, and Panasonic [1][9]. Market Trends and Competitors - The optical module market is relatively less competitive, with leading companies including NV, New Rise, and Fudian. Huadian is also transitioning to optical modules, targeting the high-end market with a monthly capacity of about 8,000 to 10,000 square meters [1][11]. - The global IC substrate expansion is focused on high-end products, with domestic companies like Xingxing Technology and Jinwei Electronics investing at least 1.3 billion RMB per factory, with drilling equipment accounting for about 30% of the investment [2][18]. Financial Projections - NV anticipates significant revenue growth in 2026, projecting earnings between 2 to 3 billion RMB, driven by a shift from trial production to mass production and an increase in average prices from over 4,000 RMB to 7,000 RMB per square meter [2][12]. Future Outlook - The COOP substrate PCB integration plan is expected to advance in March 2026, with product data confirmation anticipated by mid to late November [2][13]. - The mainstream chip size is currently 100mm by 20mm, with layer counts typically between 12 and 18 [2][14]. Technology and Production Insights - Ultra-fast lasers are widely used in chip manufacturing, allowing for smaller apertures, which is crucial for high-precision requirements in AI applications [2][15]. - The transition from HDI to MSAP processes for optical module PCBs is noted, with average prices ranging from 6,800 to 9,000 RMB per square meter [1][10]. Client-Specific Developments - Google plans to launch a large number of samples starting November 2025, with expectations for mass production in the following year, focusing on upgrading various sectors, including urban HBI and high-layer fields [2][26]. - Compared to NVIDIA, Google's products are positioned as higher-end, while NVIDIA focuses on volume sales, highlighting the differing strategies of the two companies [2][27]. Additional Important Information - The integration of new materials and technologies in IC substrate production is changing traditional processes, with a focus on enhancing precision and performance [2][19][20]. - The competitive landscape in the optical module market is characterized by a demand for high-end products, with fewer players compared to traditional HDI high-layer products [1][11].

Core Insights - AI is undergoing a "stress test" as major cloud and chip companies experience significant stock declines despite strong earnings reports [1][2] - Oracle's completion timeline for data centers related to OpenAI has been pushed back from 2027 to 2028, contributing to market concerns [1] - CoreWeave's stock has also fallen, with a notable 46% drop attributed to a major tenant retracting a $150 million investment [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's remaining performance obligations surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, driven by demand from tech giants [1] - Broadcom reported Q4 revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor business growth at 34.5% and infrastructure software revenue up 19% [1] - However, both companies reported a negative free cash flow of $10 billion and a cumulative free cash flow of -$13.18 billion over the past 12 months [2] Market Concerns - There are rising warnings about an "AI bubble," with concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures by tech giants, potential "circular trading" in the industry, and whether future profits can match current high valuations [2] - Howard Marks highlighted that transformative technologies often lead to excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in overcapacity and inflated asset prices [2] Economic Perspective - Despite high capital expenditures, major tech firms are seeing an increase in return on invested capital, indicating economic viability [3] - The AI sector is still in its early stages of commercialization, with demand for computing power expected to grow due to advancements in multi-modal models and real-time inference [3] - The current valuation of AI-related companies remains relatively rational compared to historical bubbles, supported by the dual logic of revenue growth and cost reduction [3] Investment Opportunities - The optical module sector is identified as a core support for AI hardware, with increasing industry demand and the rapid scaling of 1.6T products [4] - Domestic computing power sectors are expected to benefit from relaxed export restrictions on advanced computing cards and accelerated IPO processes for local chip companies [4] - Investment strategies focusing on AI-related sectors, such as robotics and computing power, are recommended to capture potential growth opportunities [4]