铜、白银新高，周期怎么看？20251207 摘要 航空公司延长中日航线免费退票至 2026 年 3 月，短期冲击有限，需求 转移为主，看好航空公司表现，建议关注南航、东航、国航等港股，以 及华夏、吉祥和春秋。 上海机场免税店招标，日上部分股东反对投标，或引入新运营商，上海 机场收益预计提升。中免若未能全中，或为策略性威胁，总体利好上海 机场。 散货船运价创两年新高，BDI 指数达 2,854 点，受益于西芒杜铁矿投产 及澳洲矿山集中出货。看好散货市场，推荐海通发展、太平洋航运和招 商轮船。 极兔双十一东南亚件量增速达 78%，新市场增速 83%，持续看好。快 递行业反内卷，头部企业市占率上升，中通 10 月、11 月恢复双位数增 长，估值偏低，扩大投资。 2020 年以来大宗商品周期未过半，美元走弱背景下，看好 2026 年牛 市。周期结束取决于美元信用、供应链重建、战略收储及中国反内卷政 策。关注能源革命与大国博弈带来的投资机会。 Q&A 中日航线的调整对航空公司和票价产生了哪些具体影响？ 中日航线占全部市场份额的 3%，其撤班后，许多航空公司将运力转移至国内 航班，这对国内票价产生了一定影响。上周票价从正 ...

Core Insights - Ningbo Ocean Transportation Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.581 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155 million yuan, up 21.15% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on strategic planning and layout to solidify its long-term development foundation [1] Container Business - The near-sea shipping routes have shown steady growth, with enhancements in Southeast Asia shipping services [1] - Two direct lines to Thailand and Vietnam have been renewed, and a new direct shipping line from Ningbo to Wenzhou to Manila has been launched, improving regional route networks [1] - The total number of shipping routes has exceeded 40, creating a comprehensive network for domestic and near-sea trade [1] Bulk Cargo Business - In Q3 2025, the company successfully launched its first West Africa route, marking a significant step in expanding its global shipping network [2] - This development underscores the company's commitment to deepening its presence in the West African market [2] Green Fleet Development - The company has integrated green and low-carbon principles into its fleet planning and operations, with 29 green energy-efficient vessels, accounting for 54.7% of its owned fleet [3] - The "740 standard container pure electric ship" project has been recognized as a national demonstration project for green low-carbon technology [3] - The first domestic pure electric ship has completed its hull construction and core power system installation [3] Market Response and Future Outlook - The international shipping market has experienced fluctuations due to multiple external factors, but the company has managed to enhance its main shipping business and expand its global route network [4] - The company has been recognized for its excellence in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, being included in the "2025 Zhejiang Business ESG Classic 100" list [4] - Looking ahead, the company aims to strengthen its competitive capabilities and work towards becoming a leading regional logistics service provider in Asia [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5][7] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved quarter-on-quarter, with a focus on its strategic value and cyclical resonance [5][7] - The company has expanded its fleet by acquiring second-hand ships during market lows, which has led to a substantial increase in operational capacity [7] - The international bulk shipping market has shown signs of recovery since June 2025, contributing to the company's profitability [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 253 million yuan, a decrease of 38.47% [7] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.27%, with a net profit of 166 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.49% [7] - The company's net profit is expected to recover in the coming years, with projections of 368 million yuan in 2025, 914 million yuan in 2026, and 1.284 billion yuan in 2027 [6][7] Market Dynamics - The bulk shipping market is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improvements in domestic industrial profits [7] - The strategic value of the company is highlighted in the context of U.S.-China port fee conflicts, which may provide a stable growth outlook for the company [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a net profit of 368 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -33.05%, followed by 914 million yuan in 2026 and 1.284 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 148.56% and 40.49% respectively [6][7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 28.27 for 2025, 11.37 for 2026, and 8.09 for 2027 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Hebei province is enhancing its port capabilities, particularly at Huanghua Port, to adapt to international trade fluctuations and improve service efficiency in the economy [1][19]. Port Operations and Innovations - Huanghua Port features an automated coal unloading system that can process four carriages in 20 seconds without worker intervention, showcasing advancements in operational efficiency [3][5]. - The port has achieved a coal throughput of 88.2 million tons in the first five months of this year, establishing itself as a critical hub in China's energy supply chain [5][19]. - The ongoing Phase V expansion project will add 18 coal storage silos and four 70,000-ton bulk cargo berths, increasing annual coal transport capacity by 53.1 million tons [7][9]. Transition to a Comprehensive Port - Huanghua Port is transitioning from a coal-centric port to a comprehensive port, aiming to enhance its operational capabilities and embrace smart, green port technologies [10][12]. - The port currently has 47 operational berths, including those for bulk, liquid, and container cargo, positioning it as a modern logistics center for the region [12][20]. Regional Port Development - Hebei province aims to develop a world-class port cluster, with Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, and Huanghua ports each focusing on different functional roles and resource integration [20][22]. - Tangshan Port is projected to handle over 860 million tons of cargo by 2024, while Huanghua Port is enhancing its coal and crude oil handling capabilities [22][24]. - The province has established 118 inland ports and 47 sea-rail intermodal routes, creating a multi-modal transport network that connects inland regions to the ports [24]. Technological Advancements - The implementation of smart production systems at Huanghua Port has reduced process preparation time by 23%, facilitating faster cargo movement [17][19]. - The port's operational model has shifted from human-controlled to autonomous management, enhancing overall efficiency [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in passenger load factors during the "May Day" holiday, with domestic passenger load factors rising by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and international load factors increasing by 5.2 percentage points [3][21]. - Despite the increase in load factors, ticket prices remain under pressure, with domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices down by 10.0% year-on-year and average oil-inclusive ticket prices during the holiday period down by 8.5% [3][21]. - The report anticipates a positive outlook for the aviation sector, recommending A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines due to tightening supply and clear signs of demand recovery [3]. - In the shipping sector, oil tanker rates have decreased by 8.6% to $47,000 per day, while bulk shipping rates continue to rise, with the BDI index increasing by 3.5% to 1,421 [4][52]. - The logistics sector shows a sustained increase in express delivery volumes, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9% in the week of April 21-27, totaling 4.08 billion parcels [5][55]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger volume growth accelerated, with a 13% year-on-year increase in the seven-day moving average [3][15]. - International passenger volume also saw a high increase of 24% year-on-year in the same period [3][15]. - The report recommends focusing on A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines due to favorable conditions in the aviation market [3]. Shipping - Oil tanker rates have seen a decline, with the average VLCC-TCE down by 8.6% to $47,000 per day due to reduced cargo volumes from the Middle East and other regions [4][45]. - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping decreased by 0.5% to 1,341 points, while domestic shipping rates showed stability with a slight increase [4][50]. - The report recommends focusing on the oil tanker sector due to expected demand increases from OPEC+ production hikes [4][53]. Logistics - The express delivery sector continues to grow rapidly, with a total of 4.08 billion parcels delivered in the week of April 21-27, marking a 19.9% year-on-year increase [5][55]. - The report notes improvements in bulk commodity transportation prices, with a 5.4% increase week-on-week [5][55]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like SF Express and other major players in the express delivery market due to their strong performance and shareholder returns [5].