作者|弗雷迪 数据支持| 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 2025年10月的中旬，资本市场被一则关于"三花智控斩获特斯拉6.85亿美元（约合50亿元人民币）机器人大额订单"的传闻搅得沸沸扬扬。 尽管公司随即发布公告辟谣，这并未完全浇灭市场的热情，反而像是一颗信号弹，照亮了那条潜藏在水面之下的巨舰航线。 在A股投资视角里，凭借"家电+汽车+机器人"的多元化业务拼盘，三花估值重心偏倚在机器人期权业务上。 "再造三花"，未来真的能实现么？ 01 估值锚点，剧烈切换！ 市场将三花智控视作特斯拉人形机器人的核心供应商，任何的风吹草动都能撩动它的股价。 除了无中生有的订单，此前也一度传出消息称，美国植物基制药企业PharmAGRI与特斯拉签署意向书，计划在自营农场和处方药生产环节部署多达1万台 Optimus Gen3+人形机器人一事，也曾引发轰动，后遭马斯克本人亲自辟谣。 12月特斯拉开启Optimus Gen3的新一轮供应商评估，称之为"审厂"。根据报道称，此举或为配合明年一季度Gen3发布进行量产准备。 三花作为执行器的核心供应商，肯定会受到市场重点关注。即便如此，10月份特斯拉财报公布并放缓机器人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its potential for growth in the coming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.603 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.185 billion RMB, up 16.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to achieve an overall revenue growth rate exceeding 30% next year, driven by high capacity utilization and anticipated expansion based on customer demand [3]. - The company is actively developing humanoid robot components, with a focus on three main product categories: harmonic reducers, cycloidal reducers, and rotary joint assemblies [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.959 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.3%, and a net profit of 415 million RMB, up 8.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.16%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Operational Analysis - The company maintains a strong net profit margin, with a net profit margin of 10.6% for the first three quarters, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in Q4, with further expansion planned based on customer needs [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.7 billion RMB, 1.93 billion RMB, and 2.2 billion RMB, respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the structural components market and its stable profitability [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments surrounding the company Sanhua Intelligent Control, particularly its role as a Tier 1 supplier for Tesla's Optimus project, and how it has positively influenced the robotics sector despite the retraction of a significant procurement order [2][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Sanhua Intelligent Control was reported to have received a $685 million (approximately 5 billion yuan) order from Tesla for Optimus linear actuators, which led to a surge in its stock price and positively impacted the robotics sector [2][4]. - Following the initial excitement, Sanhua issued a statement denying the validity of the procurement order, which caused a brief market correction but did not significantly affect its stock performance [5][8]. - On October 17, Sanhua announced an increase in its share buyback price limit from 35.75 yuan to 60.00 yuan per share, extending the buyback period until February 28, 2026, indicating confidence in its stock value [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the denial of the procurement order, Sanhua's stock exhibited resilience, showing an upward trend and leading the robotics sector in performance during the subsequent market downturn [8][9]. - On October 20, Sanhua continued to lead the robotics sector, with a reported expenditure of 20.01 million yuan to repurchase 430,000 shares, further demonstrating its commitment to shareholder value [9]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The article highlights that the robotics sector is poised for potential growth in the fourth quarter, driven by multiple upcoming events related to Tesla's Optimus project, including factory audits and performance reviews [10]. - A comprehensive list of nearly 70 companies involved in the Tesla Optimus supply chain has been compiled, indicating a robust ecosystem supporting the robotics industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is intensifying its focus on humanoid robots, integrating artificial intelligence and robotics into its strategic framework, which has sparked renewed interest in its supply chain and potential partners in this sector [1]. Group 1: Companies in Tesla's Supply Chain - Sanhua Intelligent Control is a key supplier for Tesla's humanoid robots, providing essential components such as rotary joint assemblies that enable flexible movement [7]. - Top Group has established a strong position in the automotive sector and is now leveraging its expertise in mechanical and electrical systems to supply linear joint assemblies for Tesla's humanoid robots [10]. - Wuzhou Xinchun is expanding its capabilities in precision manufacturing and has developed new products for humanoid robots, including planetary roller screws, which are critical for joint transmission systems [11][12]. - Zhenyu Technology is actively involved in the development of linear actuators and precision components for humanoid robots, having successfully created products that are currently undergoing supplier integration processes with major clients [16][18]. - Zhao Wei Electromechanical has become a core supplier of dexterous hand modules for Tesla's humanoid robots, focusing on high-precision micro-drive systems [24]. - Mingzhi Electric has positioned itself as a leading supplier of motors for Tesla, particularly in the field of hybrid stepper motors, which are crucial for robotic applications [28]. - Zhejiang Rongtai is enhancing its product offerings for humanoid robots and has established partnerships to accelerate its entry into this emerging market [30][34]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The humanoid robot market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics, prompting companies to innovate and expand their product lines [1]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on automation and intelligent manufacturing processes to enhance their competitiveness in the humanoid robot sector [15]. - The integration of precision components and advanced manufacturing techniques is essential for the development of high-performance humanoid robots, with firms investing in R&D to meet market demands [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Keda Li (002850.SZ) reported a steady growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 6.645 billion yuan and a net profit of 769 million yuan, driven by the increasing sales of new energy vehicles and effective cost reduction measures [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.645 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.01% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 769 million yuan, up 18.72% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 720 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.61% [2]. - The gross margin for the precision structural components business was 23.26%, showing a slight decline of 0.35% year-on-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Keda Li maintains a market share of approximately 40% in the precision structural components sector, with over 50% in the domestic power battery structural components market and over 30% globally [3][5]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with leading domestic manufacturers such as CATL and international clients like Tesla [6]. Research and Development - Keda Li invested 355 million yuan in R&D during the first half of the year, marking a 21.11% increase, focusing on enhancing safety, reliability, lightweight design, and high capacity of power battery precision structural components [5]. - The company has developed key technologies in explosion-proof design and leak-proof handling, establishing a competitive edge in the industry [5]. New Business Ventures - Keda Li is actively exploring the humanoid robot sector, having co-founded Shenzhen Kema Innovation Robot Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, where Keda Li holds a 40% stake [7]. - The company is developing core components for humanoid robots, including harmonic reducers and rotary joints, with a focus on lightweight materials [7][8]. - Keda Li has also established partnerships to expand its robot industry chain, including investments in Suzhou Yizhi Smart Drive Technology Co., Ltd. to focus on advanced dexterous hand development [9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Fulin Precision (300432) meets market expectations, driven by dual engines of iron-lithium and robotics, with a target price adjustment to 31.5 yuan and a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 8.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 173.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.4%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue is projected at 2.59 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.5% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, while net profit is expected to be 90 million yuan, down 161.2% quarter-on-quarter and 51.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to be 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 211.9% quarter-on-quarter and 43.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Iron-Lithium Business - In 2024, iron-lithium shipments are expected to reach 126,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 179%, with Q4 shipments at 44,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26% [2] - For Q1 2025, shipments are projected to be nearly 50,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 170%, with a target of 250,000 tons for the year, doubling the previous year's output [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit per ton of iron-lithium to 200 yuan in 2025, driven by cost reductions from self-supplied materials [2] Group 3: Automotive Parts Business - In 2024, the automotive parts business is expected to generate revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with new energy components contributing 1.1 billion yuan, up 99% [3] - The gross margin for the automotive parts business is projected at 23.7%, contributing 860 million yuan in gross profit [3] - For Q1 2025, the automotive parts business is expected to contribute a net profit of 80 million yuan, with a stable growth forecast for the year [3] Group 4: Cost Control and Capital Expenditure - In 2024, operating expenses are projected at 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with an expense ratio of 7.3% [4] - Capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to be 810 million yuan, down 32.3%, while Q1 2025 capital expenditure is projected at 300 million yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [4] - The company reported operating cash flow of 580 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.6% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its net profit expectations for 2025-2026 to 960 million and 1.54 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth [4] - The target price is set at 31.5 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25x for 2026 [4] - Recent ratings show 7 buy ratings and 1 hold rating from 8 institutions, with an average target price of 27.12 yuan [5]