人形机器人研究框架 20250818 摘要 特斯拉人形机器人进展：计划 2025 年下半年推出第三代机器人，2026 年上半年量产。尽管二代机器人停产带来负面影响，市场对三代产品技 术改进（神经网络算法、电机、电池、视觉感知系统、材料轻量化）抱 有期待。 国内人形机器人市场动态：智源收购上纬新材、宇树启动 IPO、世界人 形机器人大会等事件推动行业发展。预计年底相关企业将在 A 股上市， 形成产业链共振效应。 执行器方案差异：海外公司倾向线性执行器（姿态控制好、精密度高）， 国内主流采用旋转执行器，但小鹏、开普勒等新产品也尝试线性执行器 以提高步态控制和承载能力。 减速器市场：摆线减速器因可使用 PEEK 材料实现轻量化受关注，但技 术壁垒较低，客户资源是关键。小鹏的动作带动了相关产业链公司的投 资机会。 轻量化材料应用：PEEK 材料、镁合金注塑工艺受关注。国内企业如中 盐打破海外垄断，在降本增效方面有优势，轻量化材料在三代机器人应 用前景广阔。 Q&A 近期人形机器人产业有哪些重要进展？ 自 2025 年第二季度以来，人形机器人产业主要有两个重要的催化因素。首先 是特斯拉的第三代人形机器人的进展。特斯拉在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Keda Li (002850.SZ) reported a steady growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 6.645 billion yuan and a net profit of 769 million yuan, driven by the increasing sales of new energy vehicles and effective cost reduction measures [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.645 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.01% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 769 million yuan, up 18.72% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 720 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.61% [2]. - The gross margin for the precision structural components business was 23.26%, showing a slight decline of 0.35% year-on-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Keda Li maintains a market share of approximately 40% in the precision structural components sector, with over 50% in the domestic power battery structural components market and over 30% globally [3][5]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with leading domestic manufacturers such as CATL and international clients like Tesla [6]. Research and Development - Keda Li invested 355 million yuan in R&D during the first half of the year, marking a 21.11% increase, focusing on enhancing safety, reliability, lightweight design, and high capacity of power battery precision structural components [5]. - The company has developed key technologies in explosion-proof design and leak-proof handling, establishing a competitive edge in the industry [5]. New Business Ventures - Keda Li is actively exploring the humanoid robot sector, having co-founded Shenzhen Kema Innovation Robot Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, where Keda Li holds a 40% stake [7]. - The company is developing core components for humanoid robots, including harmonic reducers and rotary joints, with a focus on lightweight materials [7][8]. - Keda Li has also established partnerships to expand its robot industry chain, including investments in Suzhou Yizhi Smart Drive Technology Co., Ltd. to focus on advanced dexterous hand development [9].

Summary of Fuda Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Fuda Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Manufacturing, specifically focusing on crankshafts and precision forgings Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Structure**: In the first half of 2025, crankshafts accounted for approximately 70% of revenue, precision forgings for 10%, and other businesses for 20% [2][5][4] 2. **Second Quarter Performance**: Revenue in Q2 was 467 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.85% from Q1, primarily due to the normalization of production capacity and losses in the electric drive gear business [4][5] 3. **Profit Growth**: The company reported a net profit of 146 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.77%, with a significant Q2 net profit growth of 24% due to a one-time equity transfer gain [4][5] 4. **Production Capacity Expansion**: The company is gradually releasing capacity from six crankshaft production lines in its super factory, with significant increases in market share among major clients [2][6] 5. **Client Diversification Strategy**: Fuda is diversifying its client base to mitigate risks associated with single model cycles, successfully increasing market share with existing clients [2][7] 6. **Cost Control Advantages**: The integration of forging blanks and crankshaft machining provides significant cost control advantages, allowing the company to leverage scale effects and price competition to increase market share [2][8] 7. **New Product Development**: The company is accelerating small-batch production of a new cycloidal reducer, which is lightweight and impact-resistant, suitable for humanoid robots [2][10] 8. **Longban's Capacity and Product Layout**: Longban has completed capacity verification and is focusing on small-batch production lines to meet customer testing needs, with a strong reserve of grinding machines [10][12] 9. **Future Growth Outlook**: Fuda expects significantly better performance in the second half of 2025, with optimistic annual projections based on strategic initiatives in capacity expansion and customer acquisition [3][15][16] 10. **International Market Expansion**: The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, targeting new clients and establishing sales platforms in Europe to leverage cost advantages [18] Additional Important Content 1. **Electric Drive Business**: The company is working to improve its electric drive business and reduce losses while expanding its overseas customer base [3][17] 2. **Collaboration with Longban**: Fuda is deepening its collaboration with Longban, focusing on new product layouts and production capabilities [12][25] 3. **Technological Advancements**: The company is researching advanced technologies such as axial flux and slant wave magnetic field technologies to enhance product competitiveness [22][23] 4. **Future Product Line Expansion**: Fuda plans to expand its product lines in the future, particularly in the robotics sector, while ensuring strong advantages in existing components [19][20] 5. **Investor Engagement**: The company plans to showcase new products to investors after completing the verification of Longban's work [24]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 精密减速器是利用齿差进行减速传动的机械部件 精密减速器具备体积小、重量轻、精度高、稳定性强等特点，能够对机械传动实现精准控制，是决定机器人运 动精度的"神经枢纽"。按照啮合方式，精密减速器可分为精密摆线类减速器、谐波减速器、精密行星类减速 器、精密蜗杆类减速器。 精密减速器经过多年发展，减速器的传动方案一直在进化 摆线减速器兼具谐波减速器和行星减速器的优势，是人形机器人关节传动的新方向。 摆线减速器是一种利用行星传动原理实现减速的装置，结构相对复杂，通过内齿圈与摆线轮之间的啮合，摆线 减速机能够实现较大的减速比，在高减速比和高精度情况下，负载也可保持较高水平，但体积和重量会相对较 大。因此尽管摆线减速器的性能特点可满足人形机器 ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing - The cycloidal reducer is identified as a new direction for humanoid robot joint transmission, offering advantages such as high torque, impact resistance, and precision, surpassing planetary gears and outperforming harmonic drives in load capacity while being smaller than RV reducers [5] Group 2: Overseas TMT - Geek+ is recognized as the largest AMR warehouse robot manufacturer globally, leveraging a full-stack platform technology and a global service network to enhance competitiveness. The company has served over 800 clients across more than 40 countries, with a key customer repurchase rate of 84.3%, indicating strong validation of its technology [5][6] - Financially, Geek+ is expected to see a decrease in expense ratios from 2022 to 2024, coupled with the release of scale effects, suggesting an approaching profitability inflection point [5] Group 3: Internet Media - Palantir has raised its full-year performance guidance, with Q2 2025 revenue surpassing $1 billion, significantly exceeding expectations. The company is positioned as a representative of AI enterprise solutions, demonstrating substantial growth in revenue and profitability driven by AI commercialization [6] Group 4: Sensor Industry - Amperon, recognized as a leading domestic replacement for sensors, aims to develop force sensors for robotics and autonomous driving, targeting emerging markets as a new growth driver [6] Group 5: Oil and Gas Engineering - China Petroleum Engineering has secured a $2.524 billion total contract for a seawater pipeline project in Iraq, marking a significant breakthrough in overseas market expansion [7] Group 6: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. reported a 24.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 2.43 billion yuan, with a net profit of 200 million yuan, up 42.6%. The company is optimizing its product structure, leading to improved gross and net profit margins [7] Group 7: Restaurant Industry - Yum China achieved a 4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, totaling $2.8 billion, with adjusted net profit rising by 1% to $215 million. Same-store sales growth turned positive, and operational efficiency improvements contributed to enhanced profit margins [8]

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing - The report highlights that cycloidal reducers possess advantages such as high torque, impact resistance, and precision, making them a promising new solution for humanoid robot joint transmission [1] - Companies with relevant technology reserves or existing products in cycloidal reducers, such as Zhongdali De, Haoneng Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, Keda Li, and Hechuan Technology, are recommended for attention [1] Group 2: Overseas TMT - The report identifies Geekplus as the leading global AMR warehouse robot manufacturer, emphasizing its comprehensive platform technology and global service network as competitive advantages [2] - The company offers a range of AMR solutions, including shelf-to-person and pallet-to-person picking, and has served over 800 clients across more than 40 countries, with a key customer repurchase rate of 84.3% [2] - Financially, the company is expected to see a decrease in expense ratios and the release of scale effects from 2022 to 2024, indicating a potential profitability turning point [2] Group 3: Petrochemical - China Petroleum Engineering has won a total contract project in Iraq worth $2.524 billion, marking a significant breakthrough in overseas market expansion [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 738 million, 825 million, and 929 million yuan respectively, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [3] - Sinopec Oilfield Services has secured a total contract project worth 3.597 billion yuan from the National Oil and Gas Pipeline Group, indicating a major breakthrough in the domestic market [4] - The expected net profits for Sinopec from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 810 million, 1 billion, and 1.228 billion yuan respectively, with an "accumulate" rating for both A and H shares [4] Group 4: Internet Media - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from improvements in advertising business due to optimized deployment and enhanced AI capabilities, leading to a stable upward performance [6] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou from 2025 to 2027 are 20.15 billion, 24.19 billion, and 27.76 billion yuan respectively, with an increased target price of 84.3 HKD and a "buy" rating [6] Group 5: Home Appliances - Ninebot Company is focusing on short-distance transportation and robotics, with strong growth momentum in two-wheeled vehicles and lawnmowers [7] - The net profit forecasts for Ninebot from 2025 to 2027 have been raised to 2 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively, with a current PE ratio of 21, 16, and 12 times, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [7]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of cycloidal reducers is set to revolutionize the joint technology of humanoid robots, addressing existing performance bottlenecks and paving the way for commercial applications in the industry by 2030, with a projected market space exceeding 14 billion yuan [1][14]. Group 1: Current Challenges in Humanoid Robot Joint Technology - Humanoid robots have progressed from product definition to functional realization and commercialization, but significant gaps remain for large-scale commercial and household applications [2]. - The hardware performance bottleneck is primarily in the joint transmission system, where existing solutions struggle to balance precision, load capacity, and lifespan [2][5]. - Current mainstream planetary reducers have structural flaws, leading to insufficient precision due to large backlash, while harmonic reducers, although precise, suffer from poor durability under high-load conditions [4][5]. Group 2: Advantages of Cycloidal Reducers - Cycloidal reducers, leveraging advancements in material technology and precision processing, offer a unique combination of high precision, load capacity, and compact size, surpassing existing technologies [6][8]. - The multi-tooth engagement mechanism of cycloidal reducers allows for a load capacity increase of over 300% compared to harmonic reducers, making them suitable for high-load applications [6][9]. - The design of cycloidal reducers enables a backlash of less than 1 arc minute, significantly improving positioning accuracy, which is critical for tasks requiring high precision [8]. Group 3: Market Potential and Commercialization Path - The cycloidal reducer market is expected to reach approximately 14 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increasing adoption in humanoid robots, particularly in lower limb joints [14][17]. - The anticipated reduction in cycloidal reducer prices, from 15,000 yuan in 2025 to 9,000 yuan by 2030, will further enhance their market penetration and competitiveness against harmonic reducers [17]. - The integration of cycloidal reducers with other components like torque motors and encoders is expected to streamline the assembly process for humanoid robot manufacturers, reducing complexity [13]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Key Players - The global cycloidal reducer market is currently dominated by Japanese companies in the harmonic and RV reducer segments, but the cycloidal reducer sector is still evolving with intense competition from traditional and new entrants [12][18]. - Companies like Shuanghuan Transmission and Haoneng Co. are leveraging their expertise in precision manufacturing to rapidly enter the cycloidal reducer market, showcasing significant growth potential [18][19]. - The trend of vertical integration in the industry is evident, with leading firms moving towards integrated joint modules that combine cycloidal reducers with other essential components [13][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The rise of cycloidal reducers is expected to drive humanoid robot joint technology into a new iterative cycle, facilitating the transition from laboratory settings to real-world applications [23]. - The industry is likely to see a convergence of automotive and robotics technologies, enhancing manufacturing capabilities and creating a positive feedback loop for both sectors [24].

Group 1 - The humanoid robot sector saw an increase, with the Robot Industry ETF (159551) rising over 1% [1] - Tianfeng Securities reported that several companies in the supply chain have recently launched cycloidal products for humanoid robots, which are expected to address weight issues [1] - Keda Li-Ke Meng has developed cycloidal products using PEEK materials, achieving a weight reduction of 73% compared to steel [1] Group 2 - Fuda-Changban holds multiple patents for cycloidal reducers [1] - Japanese Nabtesco has gradually introduced closed structure RD series reducers and lightweight N series reducers based on RV structures [1] - Domestic company Zhihong Technology has launched high-precision, long-life, highly integrated, and lightweight transmission module products for humanoid robots [1] Group 3 - The Robot Industry ETF (159551) closely tracks the CSI Robot Index, which includes listed companies related to system solution providers, digital workshops, automation equipment manufacturers, and automation component manufacturers [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of robot-related securities, providing investors with a convenient tool for investing in the robot industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the robot industry through the connecting fund of the Robot Industry ETF (020290) [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights that China is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with economic indicators resembling the later stages of Japan's third consumption society and the brand consumption phase in the US [1] - For essential consumption, the investment strategy focuses on low-valuation, high-quality growth stocks with high dividend yields, particularly in the food and beverage and textile sectors [1] - In the optional consumption sector, there are signs of improvement in macroeconomic data, suggesting a potential turning point, with recommendations to select companies showing operational improvements based on financial reports [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown a breakthrough in indices, with a shift in style, where mid-cap indices performed strongly while large-cap indices lagged [3] - Domestic economic indicators such as CPI and PPI are showing mixed signals, with CPI returning to positive growth while PPI's decline is widening, indicating a complex economic environment [3][29] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like real estate, steel, and non-bank financials, which have been characterized as "cold" industries but are currently leading the market [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector, noting that policy support and increased asset allocation from insurance companies could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [8] - The report identifies specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, based on their potential for improved asset quality and profitability [8] Group 4 - The report discusses the robotics industry, particularly the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, highlighting their advantages in torque and shock resistance [10] - Companies like Double Ring Transmission are collaborating with Tesla on developing small RV reducers, indicating a growing interest in this technology [10] Group 5 - The scientific instruments industry is characterized by a significant presence of foreign brands, with domestic brands still underrepresented, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution [11] - The report notes that the mass spectrometry market in China is valued at 16.712 billion yuan, with foreign companies holding over 90% of the global market share, highlighting the need for domestic innovation [11]

Group 1 - Citic Securities indicates that the market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with manufacturing sectors at low levels poised for recovery due to increased liquidity and policy expectations [1] - Everbright Securities forecasts that the market may reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with a focus on domestic consumption, technology independence, and dividend stocks [2] - Caitong Securities highlights the continuation of global and domestic favorable conditions, supporting an upward market outlook, with emphasis on the reform of capital markets and the transition to new productive forces in China [3] Group 2 - Huaan Securities maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, citing high dividend yields as a key driver for continued upward trends in bank stocks, with expected increases in dividend yields in the coming years [4] - Tianfeng Securities expresses optimism about the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, noting their advantages over traditional reduction gear solutions and the potential for increased usage in the industry [5]