[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2026 年 2 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 | | | | SpaceX﹒多行星文明："运、连、算、光"四位一体太空基建 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 分析师： | 邱净博 | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | SFC CE.no: BRF275 | | | | SFC CE.no: BRT139 | | | 010-59136693 | | 010-59136685 | | 010-59133689 | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | | qiujingbo@gf.com.cn | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，邱净博并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受 ...

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) potentially around June 28, aiming to raise up to $50 billion with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would set a record for the largest IPO in history [2][16]. Group 1: Company Overview - SpaceX's valuation has reached $800 billion in a recent internal equity transaction, doubling from $400 billion in July 2025, making it the most valuable private company globally [2][29]. - The company has transitioned from near bankruptcy in 2008 to a dominant player in the commercial space sector, successfully launching the Falcon 1 rocket and securing significant contracts with NASA [7][9]. Group 2: Business Segments - SpaceX's business model consists of two main segments: rocket launch services and Starlink satellite internet, with the majority of revenue coming from Starlink [8][40]. - The company has achieved over 90% of the global commercial payload launch market, with a record launch frequency of 167 times in 2025, significantly surpassing all other countries [9][38]. Group 3: Starlink and Future Growth - Starlink, launched in 2015, has become the largest satellite internet provider globally, with over 9 million users and a projected revenue contribution of over 70% to SpaceX's total revenue by 2025 [11][40]. - The Starship system, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket, is central to SpaceX's future plans, with the potential to drastically reduce launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram [13][42]. Group 4: IPO and Market Recognition - The anticipated IPO is expected to surpass the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, with Morgan Stanley likely to be the lead underwriter [16][45]. - SpaceX's competitive advantages include advanced technology, cost efficiency, and a stable cash flow, with the company reportedly achieving positive free cash flow for several consecutive years [19][46]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Despite SpaceX's dominance, competitors like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are emerging, with Blue Origin successfully launching its New Glenn rocket and developing its satellite internet project [20][49]. - The commercial space sector is witnessing rapid growth, with various companies exploring different niches, including satellite internet and small satellite launches [22][52]. Group 6: Broader Implications - SpaceX's IPO signifies a pivotal moment in the commercialization of space, potentially attracting more capital and accelerating technological advancements in the industry [29][58]. - The company aims to establish a human presence on Mars by the 2030s, with ambitious plans for interplanetary colonization and advanced space infrastructure [15][42].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's SpaceX has announced free access to its Starlink satellite internet service for Iranian users amid political turmoil, raising international concerns about the implications of commercial satellite constellations on global security and governance [1] Group 1: Impact of Starlink on Warfare - The Starlink system, initially designed for commercial satellite internet, has evolved into a quasi-military tool for the U.S., significantly influencing modern warfare dynamics, as evidenced by its rapid deployment to support Ukrainian forces during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The U.S. military has integrated Starlink with various operational units, enhancing its combat capabilities and creating a closed-loop information system for military operations [2] Group 2: Strategic Dependency and National Security - The reliance on Starlink technology by smaller nations creates a strategic dependency, posing risks to national sovereignty and security, as seen in past instances where the U.S. leveraged Starlink to exert pressure on countries like Ukraine [3] - The trend of countries, particularly in Europe and Japan, developing their own low-Earth orbit satellite constellations reflects a response to the vulnerabilities associated with dependency on foreign technology [3] Group 3: Challenges of Space Resource Management - Starlink's rapid expansion, with over 10,000 satellites in orbit, has led to monopolistic control over near-Earth orbital resources, increasing the risk of satellite collisions and space debris [4] - The lack of regulatory frameworks allows entities like Starlink to operate with impunity, potentially leading to a new arms race in outer space, as existing international laws struggle to address these emerging challenges [4] Group 4: Call for International Cooperation - There is a pressing need for the international community to establish binding guidelines for space activities to prevent militarization and ensure that space technology serves humanity's welfare [5] - Developing countries are encouraged to pursue autonomous technological paths and strengthen collaboration to build a secure space community [5]

作为快速拓展军事能力、减少对美依赖的一部分，德国政府去年承诺向军事太空技术领域投入350亿欧 元。德军网络和信息空间部队一名负责人上周告诉德国《商报》，德军计划"在今后数年内，主要与德 国企业合作"，打造专属卫星互联网络，服务优先方向是北约东翼成员国。德军已拟定招标具体要求， 军备采购部门正推进招标工作。据新华社（海洋) 三名知情人士26日向英国《金融时报》披露上述消息。据报道，这项合同的金额可能达数十亿欧元，旨 在为德军在近地轨道打造安全的军用级卫星通信网络，成为德军版"星链"。 美国太空探索技术公司的"星链"通过近地轨道卫星提供宽带互联网服务。太空探索技术公司同时积极承 接美国政府的防务订单，成立了"星盾"业务部门，以"星链"技术和自身发射能力为基础，专为美国国防 部等政府部门提供遥感、保密通信和军用载荷搭载等服务。近年来，"星链"越来越频繁地出现在国际地 缘政治热点事件中。在乌克兰，美国及其盟友出资采购"星链"服务，乌军利用"星链"操控无人机、无人 艇袭击俄军；在美军突袭委内瑞拉后，以及伊朗发生抗议和骚乱期间，"星链"先后宣布对委伊两国提供 免费服务。 按《金融时报》说法，不少国家因不愿过度依赖太空探索 ...

德国最大军工企业莱茵金属公司和德国卫星制造商不来梅轨道高科技公司有意联合竞标，为德国联邦国 防军提供类似美国"星链"的卫星互联网服务。 三名知情人士26日向英国《金融时报》披露上述消息。据报道，这项合同的金额可能达数十亿欧元，旨 在为德军在近地轨道打造安全的军用级卫星通信网络，成为德军版"星链"。 德军网络和信息空间部队一名负责人上周告诉德国《商报》，德军计划"在今后数年内，主要与德国企 业合作"，打造专属卫星互联网络，服务优先方向是北约东翼成员国。德军已拟定招标具体要求，军备 采购部门正推进招标工作。 莱茵金属、不来梅轨道高科技公司以及德国国防部和军备采购部门均拒绝就《金融时报》的报道置评。 （文章来源：新华社） 美国太空探索技术公司的"星链"通过近地轨道卫星提供宽带互联网服务，截至2026年1月在轨卫星超过 9000颗。太空探索技术公司同时积极承接美国政府的防务订单，成立了"星盾"业务部门，以"星链"技术 和自身发射能力为基础，专为美国国防部等政府部门提供遥感、保密通信和军用载荷搭载等服务。"星 盾"系统的卫星同样在近地轨道，但规模较小。 近年来，"星链"越来越频繁地出现在国际地缘政治热点事件中。在乌克兰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation in Iran has escalated, leading to protests and unrest, prompting military threats from the U.S. and personnel withdrawals from the region [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions - The U.S. is withdrawing some personnel from its major bases in the Middle East due to heightened tensions in the region [3]. - The U.S. military presence in Qatar is being reduced, with a focus on ensuring the safety of citizens and critical infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Iranian Legislative Developments - The Iranian parliament has passed a framework for regulating gatherings and protests, distinguishing between legal and illegal activities [4]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that the country is at a high state of readiness, with missile stockpiles increased since 2025 [4]. Group 3: Starlink Deployment in Iran - Elon Musk's SpaceX is providing free Starlink satellite internet service in Iran, despite previous legal prohibitions against it [5][9]. - Approximately 50,000 Starlink terminals are reported to be in use within Iran [5]. Group 4: Starlink's Role in Geopolitics - Starlink has become a tool for U.S. intervention in foreign affairs, facilitating communication in conflict zones [9][10]. - The technology has been utilized in various geopolitical contexts, including Ukraine and Venezuela, raising concerns about its implications in warfare [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong investment rating to the aerospace industry, particularly highlighting SpaceX's potential for significant valuation growth due to its innovative technologies and market positioning [2][5]. Core Insights - SpaceX is projected to achieve 170 launches in 2025 at a cost of $27 million per launch, establishing a robust commercial moat through reusable technology and significant contracts with NASA and other clients [2]. - The Starlink project has evolved into a three-pronged business model of manufacturing, operation, and technology premium, with expected revenues of $15.6 billion by 2026, contributing significantly to SpaceX's valuation [3]. - The development of space data centers is seen as a second growth curve for SpaceX, potentially generating $9.5 billion in profits and adding $332.5 billion to its valuation [4]. Summary by Sections 01 Launch Services: Reusable Technology Constructs Absolute Moat - SpaceX's valuation has increased nearly 30,000 times since its inception, driven by its leading launch capabilities and cost advantages [9]. - In 2025, SpaceX is expected to conduct 170 launches, dominating the global market and significantly outperforming competitors [15]. - The Falcon 9 rocket's launch cost has decreased by 70% compared to traditional rockets, enhancing SpaceX's competitive edge [15][20]. 02 Starlink: From Global Connectivity to Direct Mobile Access - Starlink has become the largest low Earth orbit satellite constellation, with over 10,000 satellites launched, and is expected to generate substantial revenue growth [50]. - The V2.0 Mini satellites have optimized the economic model, increasing bandwidth capacity while reducing costs significantly [50]. - Starlink's business model has transitioned from supplementary coverage to a core operational base, with a focus on high-margin government contracts [56]. 03 Space Data Centers: The Ultimate Solution in the AI Era - SpaceX's space data centers are positioned to overcome physical limitations in AI computing, leveraging the unique advantages of the space environment [81]. - The potential for high energy output and efficient cooling in space could lead to significant operational cost reductions [81]. - The report highlights the challenges of traditional aerospace costs, emphasizing the need for reduced launch costs to make space data centers viable [85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace and satellite internet industries are accelerating due to a resonance of technology and policy, marking a significant turning point for satellite internet as a crucial component of integrated space-ground networking infrastructure [1][12] - The satellite internet technology is characterized by its wide coverage, low latency for intercontinental communication, and low ground construction costs, addressing connectivity needs in remote areas and emergency scenarios [1][12] - The demand for space computing is emerging, driven by the exponential growth of AI model requirements, with major tech companies focusing on deploying data centers in space [2][13] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market - A," indicating a projected investment return that exceeds the performance of the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5][27] Industry Performance - The report notes that the computer sector has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month relative return of -1.9% and a 3-month relative return of -7.6% [7][15] Key Industry Developments - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration of China signifies a commitment to high-quality development in the sector [1][12] - SpaceX's Starlink project aims to deploy a constellation of approximately 42,000 satellites, enhancing military communication and reconnaissance capabilities [2][13] - The report highlights the increasing urgency for technological iteration and industrial acceleration in satellite internet and reusable rocket development in China [2][13] Beneficiaries and Recommendations - Companies involved in satellite control, space asset management, and testing services are expected to benefit from the growth in satellite numbers, with specific recommendations for firms like Xingtu Control and Shengbang Security [3][14] - The report suggests monitoring satellite payload and integrated service companies, including Zhongke Xingtou and Shanghai Hantong, as potential investment opportunities [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities presented by SpaceX's monopolistic position in launch services and the monetization path of the Starlink satellite constellation [2]. Core Insights - The core investment logic for the commercial aerospace sector in A-shares is to embrace the explosive growth period of satellite constellation infrastructure and to identify high-barrier component suppliers. China is currently in a phase similar to SpaceX's network-building period from 2018 to 2020. As the G60 and GW networks enter a dense launch phase, satellite manufacturing is transitioning from custom lab designs to mass production akin to automotive assembly lines. The most certain alpha returns in the industry will come from high-value, high-barrier core satellite components and payloads [2]. Summary by Sections 1. SpaceX Overview - SpaceX is not a traditional aerospace manufacturer but a monopolist in space logistics and infrastructure, applying first principles to disrupt conventional beliefs about rocket costs and single-use designs. It has created a self-reinforcing business loop by leveraging the unmatched launch cost advantages of Falcon 9 to build the largest space communications network, Starlink, and using the cash flow generated to fund ambitious projects like Starship [4]. 2. Competitive Advantages - **Cost Barriers**: SpaceX's reusability model has drastically reduced launch costs, with marginal costs dropping to nearly $15 million per launch, achieving gross margins of around 68% after five reuse cycles. This cost structure provides SpaceX with pricing power against traditional aerospace giants [4]. - **Manufacturing Barriers**: Over 80% of SpaceX's components are self-developed, allowing for rapid iteration and cost control through vertical integration. This strategy has transformed rocket manufacturing from a craft-based approach to an industrialized process [4]. - **Customer Barriers**: SpaceX has established a strategic symbiosis with the U.S. government, which has become a significant source of funding for its core R&D through long-term contracts, ensuring a reliable and cost-effective access to space [4]. 3. Growth Curves - SpaceX's value proposition should not be compared to traditional defense contractors but viewed as a combination of three distinct business life cycles: 1. The launch business as a cash cow with high market share and profitability. 2. The exponential growth of Starlink, transitioning from B2B to B2C services, characterized by recurring revenue similar to SaaS models. 3. The disruptive potential of Starship, which could unlock trillion-dollar markets in space tourism, intercontinental transport, and deep-space resource extraction [4]. 4. Financial Trajectory - SpaceX has seen its valuation soar from approximately $27 million at inception to nearly $200 billion, reflecting a growth of nearly 7400 times over two decades. The financing history shows a clear evolution from focusing on cheaper rockets to expanding into satellite internet and ambitious space exploration projects [29][30]. 5. Product Ecosystem - SpaceX's business model is built on a self-reinforcing loop, utilizing its launch market dominance to deploy Starlink satellites at internal marginal costs, thereby increasing competitive pressure on rivals. The combination of stable cash flow from launch services and the growing SaaS revenue from Starlink supports the overarching goal of funding Starship development [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's scrutiny of SpaceX contracts highlights the U.S. government's significant reliance on the company for its space operations, revealing potential risks in the commercial space sector if relations deteriorate further [1][2]. Group 1: Government Scrutiny and SpaceX's Role - The Trump administration initiated a review of SpaceX's government contracts to identify potential waste, but preliminary findings indicated that the government has "near irreplaceable dependence" on SpaceX for most projects [1][2]. - The review involved multiple federal agencies, including the Department of Defense and NASA, assessing all contracts and agreements with SpaceX, focusing on duplicate payments and alternatives [2][3]. Group 2: Evolution of NASA and Commercial Space - NASA has transitioned from a manufacturing and management entity to a service procurement agency, seeking private companies to fulfill its transportation needs to space [3]. - SpaceX emerged as a key player in this shift, with its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft becoming essential for NASA's commercial crew program, which is projected to save the government $20 billion to $30 billion [3][4]. Group 3: SpaceX's Dominance in the Market - SpaceX has achieved the lowest launch costs globally, dominating approximately 90% of U.S. orbital launches in 2023, thanks to its reusable rocket technology [4][6]. - The company has secured significant contracts, including a $5.9 billion deal for 28 national security launches, reinforcing its position as a primary contractor for U.S. space missions [6]. Group 4: Risks of Severing Ties with SpaceX - Cutting ties with SpaceX could jeopardize low-cost, efficient commercial space operations, complicating budget reduction efforts for the Trump administration [4][5]. - NASA's reliance on SpaceX raises concerns about the potential need to revert to traditional aerospace contractors, which could introduce significant technical and engineering risks [4][5]. Group 5: Legal and Political Implications - The Trump administration has the legal authority to terminate contracts with SpaceX but would incur substantial costs and face potential legal challenges from Musk, who could argue that the termination is politically motivated [7]. - SpaceX's rise poses a challenge to the traditional military-industrial complex, which has historically dominated U.S. space operations but has been criticized for inefficiency and high costs [7].