以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 来源丨格隆（ID： guru-lama ） 作者丨 万连山 图源丨Midjourney 中国商业航天司刚刚成立，美国商业航天就曝出更重磅的消息。 本周二，彭博社称，SpaceX计划最早于2026年中或年尾以1.5万亿美元估值上市，募集超300亿美元的资金。 真的假的？ 虽然和传统航天模式相比，SpaceX模式是出了名的省钱、成本低。但就算再省钱，它也是在造火箭，也得烧钱。而现在的 SpaceX，虽然现金流转正了，但现金流和"有钱烧"是两码事。 2025年营收预计155亿美元，看着不少，但对比要花的钱：170亿美元收购EchoStar的频谱许可证，每年数十亿美元的星舰 研发，百亿美元的太空数据中心光硬件采购。 次日，SpaceX传记《起飞》、Ars Technica高级太空编辑Eric Berger在X上转发自己的文章《抗拒数年后，SpaceX现在计 划上市。原因何在?》，并评论：以下是我认为SpaceX即将上市的原因。 仅一个小时后，马斯克本人回复：一如既往，Eric的描述是准确的。这是实锤了 ...

作者 | 万连山 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 中国商业航天司刚刚成立，美国商业航天就曝出更重磅的消息。 本周二，彭博社称，SpaceX计划最早于2026年中或年尾以1.5万亿美元估值上市，募集超300亿美元的资金。 真的假的？ 次日，SpaceX传记《起飞》、Ars Technica高级太空编辑Eric Berger在X上转发自己的文章《抗拒数年后，SpaceX现在计划上市。原因何在?》，并评论： 以下是我认为SpaceX即将上市的原因。 仅一个小时后，马斯克本人回复：一如既往，Eric的描述是准确的。 这是实锤了？ 吃瓜群众火速围观，有人甚至想好了股票代号：$SEX。 叫什么并不重要。 问题是，SpaceX如果真的估值1.5万亿，那它直接空降美股前五，把Meta都得挤下去。 凭什么？就凭他是马斯克的公司？ 首富也缺钱 众所周知，马斯克讨厌上市公司。 当年特斯拉的私有化风波，他被SEC罚得肉疼，还丢了董事长的位子。 他曾信誓旦旦地说："SpaceX在飞船能定期往返火星之前，绝不上市。" 现在怎么突然变卦了？ 主要还是缺钱。 虽然和传统航天模式相比，SpaceX模式是出了名的省 ...

21世纪经济报道新质生产力研究院综合报道 早上好，新的一天又开始了。在过去的24小时内，科技行业发生了哪些有意思的事情？来跟21tech一起 看看吧。 【巨头风向标】 马斯克回应Space X冲击5.7万亿元估值 据智通财经报道，世界首富马斯克发文称，SpaceX以8000亿美元（约人民币5.7万亿元）估值融资的消 息"并不准确"。马斯克表示，SpaceX已经是一家多年现金流为正的公司，每年会进行两次股票回购，估 值的提升取决于星舰（Starship）和星链（Starlink）的进展。马斯克称，相比估值，还有一件事更重 要。他写道："我个人非常敬重NASA，但明年他们在我们总收入中的占比不会超过5%。商业化的 Starlink（星链）仍然是我们收入贡献最大的一块。外界有些说法认为SpaceX是靠NASA'补贴'起来的， 这种说法是完全错误的。" 苹果现高管离职潮 据央视财经报道，美国苹果公司管理层正在经历多年来最激烈的人事动荡。日前，苹果公司在官网发布 公告，宣布了三项管理层人事变动，而在过去一周内，苹果公司已有4名高管宣布将离职。今年更早的 时候，除了宣布即将退休离任的首席运营官和前任首席财务官，还有大量人 ...

Group 1 - The global satellite communication industry has entered a rapid development phase driven by advancements in high-throughput satellites (HTS) and non-geostationary satellite orbits (NGSO) since 2020 [1] - Major players in the industry include established operators like Viasat and Telesat, as well as new entrants such as SpaceX and OneWeb, with SpaceX's Starlink leading in satellite launches [1][11] - The urgency to develop satellite internet is underscored by its strategic military value and the need to secure space resources before they are monopolized by foreign entities [3][10] Group 2 - China's satellite internet construction has commenced, with significant policy support from the government to foster the industry, including encouraging private investment and promoting commercial satellite applications [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 highlighted commercial aerospace as a strategic emerging industry, indicating a shift in focus towards satellite internet as a key component of the digital economy [3] Group 3 - SpaceX's Starlink has demonstrated substantial commercial viability, with user numbers growing from 10,000 in 2021 to 4.6 million in 2024, generating diverse revenue streams [15][16] - The introduction of direct satellite connectivity for consumer mobile phones marks a significant advancement, allowing existing 4G LTE devices to communicate directly with satellites [17] Group 4 - The satellite internet industry is experiencing rapid growth due to breakthroughs in technologies such as high-throughput satellites, reusable rocket technology, and advanced propulsion systems [19][20] - The competition for orbital resources is intense, with the International Telecommunication Union's "first come, first served" principle emphasizing the need for timely satellite deployment to avoid losing access to critical frequencies and orbits [10][14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Commercial Space Industry Industry Overview - The commercial space industry in China has accelerated its development since 2017, benefiting from the maturity of high-throughput satellite technology. Major projects include the state-led "Star Network" and the privately funded "G60," both of which are set to launch frequently after 2024 to capture the low Earth orbit satellite internet market [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Low Earth orbit satellites offer significant advantages over ground-based stations, including high coverage, low latency, broadband capabilities, and low costs. These features make them particularly valuable for communication in remote areas, marine operations, and aviation [1][5][2]. - The global competition in commercial space is intense, with countries needing to adhere to the ITU's "first come, first served" principle to secure frequency resources. SpaceX's Starlink has applied for a large number of satellites, prompting other countries to expedite their launch plans to avoid resource depletion risks [1][6]. - The commercial space sector is evolving towards broadband internet services, transitioning from early voice and IoT services to high-throughput broadband services. Starlink is leading the market, and the commercial space market is expected to have a profound impact on the global communication system [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The application of commercial satellite constellations in military operations has been highlighted, with Starlink providing significant battlefield advantages during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, showcasing the importance of commercial space in military contexts [1][8]. - The development of China's commercial space industry dates back to the 1970s, with significant milestones such as the successful launch of Dongfanghong-1 in 1970. The market for satellite internet in China is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion yuan, with a focus on satellite and ground equipment manufacturing [3][16]. - The issuance of satellite communication business licenses to companies like China Telecom, Satcom, and China Communications Construction marks a significant step towards commercial operation, enhancing collaboration between operators and regulatory bodies [17]. - The domestic low Earth orbit satellite internet development is progressing steadily, with two main projects, "Star Network" and "G60," planning to deploy over 27,000 satellites. As of August 28, 2025, "Star Network" has launched over 100 satellites, while "G60" has launched 90 [12]. - Recent government policies have significantly boosted the satellite internet industry, with initiatives aimed at promoting strategic emerging industries, including commercial space and low-altitude economy [15]. Future Outlook - The global satellite internet construction landscape is forming distinct camps, including the US, UK, Europe, Russia, Canada, and Australia. Starlink has launched 9,237 satellites, with 7,983 currently operational, indicating a strong market presence [9][10]. - The future of commercial space is expected to continue advancing towards broadband internet, with ongoing technological maturation and high-throughput developments. Countries are also racing to secure frequency resources to maximize benefits [7][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - Satellite internet has advantages such as wide coverage, low latency for intercontinental communication, support for large-scale flexible communication, low construction costs, and applicability in emergency scenarios, addressing connectivity needs in remote areas and communication blind spots at sea and in the air [2][12] - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, represented by "Starlink," is a new direction in technological competition, with significant plans from companies like SpaceX and Lynk to deploy thousands of satellites [3][13] - The construction of LEO satellite constellations is accelerating in China, with the largest "GW" satellite internet constellation planning to launch 12,992 satellites, contributing to rapid growth in the domestic satellite internet market, projected to reach 44.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 11.2% from 2021 to 2025 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The satellite internet industry involves multiple sectors including communication, materials, electronics, semiconductors, and software, characterized by high technical difficulty and significant industry scale [2][12] - The military value of satellite internet is highlighted by its role in the Ukraine conflict, where "Starlink" provided crucial communication support [5][15] Market Performance - The computer industry index increased by 0.03% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.11% [17][18] - The report notes that the computer sector's overall performance was weak, primarily due to adjustments in themes like AI [21] Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies providing satellite control services, testing services for satellite communication, and satellite application firms, including Star Map Control and Kunheng Shunwei [16]