证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 商业航天进入井喷式发展新时代 [Table_Title2] 国防军工 行业评级:推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件 1：国务院办公厅印发《关于加快场景培育和开放推动新场景大规模应用的实施意见》提出，推 动海陆空全空间无人体系应用和标准建设，鼓励打造涵盖全空间的文旅、政务、物流、卫星服务等应用场 景，探索创新空天、深海、频谱轨道等新型要素市场化配置方式。 事件 2：据网易、新浪网，11 月 4 日马斯克表示扩大星链 V3 卫星规模建设太空数据中心；11 月 5 日 谷歌宣布启动"捕日者计划"，拟在 2027 年初发射两颗搭载 Trillium 代 TPU 的原型卫星，将 AI 算力直接 部署到太空。谷歌高管称："未来太空或许将是实现人工智能计算规模化的最佳场所。"谷歌选择的合作方 Planet 公司在遥感卫星领域处于领先地位，拥有大量成熟的卫星平台和发射渠道。 事件 3：据封面新闻，在 2025 年世界互联网大会"互联网之光"博览会上，国星宇航自主研发的"零 碳太空计算中心"获评本年度十大 ...

市场似乎正在跑出新赛道！ 早盘，A股商业航天板块短线拉升，上海沪工直线触及涨停，航天智装涨超6%，上海瀚讯、航天动力、航天科技跟涨。那么，这个板块为何突然异动？ 分析人士认为，主要有三大利好驱动。 第一，近日，北京经开区企业星河动力航天成功完成智神星一号可重复使用液体运载火箭一子级动力系统试车。标志着该型火箭大型地面试验全部完成， 即将开展首飞发射。此前，可重复使用火箭朱雀三号首飞箭顺利完成加注合练及静态点火试验，进入首飞关键准备阶段。 11月10日晚，一场电话会议纪要在业内传播。该纪要指出，截至目前，美国已发射1万多颗卫星并组网（星链 Starlink），在俄乌冲突发挥了不可估量、不 可替代的作用。明后两年，中国必将加快发射进度。"如果错过了今年人工智能GPU几倍十几倍大行情的话，欢迎赶上明年商业航空航天大发展元年。" 今天早上，商业航天概念果然大爆发。上海沪工直线涨停，泰永长征、航天智装、长光华芯、中简科技、上海瀚讯、航天动力、信科移动等跟涨。 第三，近日，马斯克在X上表示，SpaceX将扩大Starlink V3卫星规模，并着手在太空建设数据中心，以应对AI时代算力资源不足的问题。太空算力辨识度 快速提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing a significant surge, driven by recent developments in reusable rocket technology, supportive government policies, and competitive dynamics in the global market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Beijing's Xinghe Power Aerospace successfully completed the ground testing of the first stage power system for the reusable liquid rocket, Zhishen-1, marking the completion of all major ground tests and preparing for its maiden flight [2][5]. - The successful static ignition test of the reusable rocket Zhuque-3 has also been completed, indicating readiness for its first launch [5]. - The commercial aerospace concept has gained momentum, with several companies like Shanghai Huguang and others experiencing significant stock price increases [1][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse, quality powerhouse, aerospace powerhouse, and other strong nations, highlighting the importance of commercial aerospace [2][6]. - The 2024 Government Work Report aims to actively develop commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy as new growth engines, further reinforcing the policy framework for the sector [6]. Group 3: Global Competition - Elon Musk announced plans to expand SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellite scale and establish data centers in space to address the growing demand for computing power in the AI era, indicating a rising interest in space-based computing resources [2][6]. - The U.S. has launched over 10,000 satellites, significantly impacting global communications, and China is expected to accelerate its launch schedule in the coming years [4][9]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global commercial aerospace market is projected to reach $480.3 billion by 2024, accounting for 78% of the global aerospace economy [9]. - China's commercial aerospace market is expected to grow from 324.44 billion yuan in 2017 to 713.32 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [9]. - The competition for satellite orbits and frequency resources is intensifying, with countries recognizing the strategic value of low Earth orbit and frequency resources [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By the end of 2025, China is anticipated to witness a series of maiden flights for various reusable rockets, including those from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and other private companies [10].

Core Insights - The commercial space industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, becoming a key driver of technological innovation and economic growth, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [1][2] - The industry is characterized by a market-oriented approach, with enterprises leading in satellite manufacturing, launch services, and ground equipment manufacturing across various sectors [2] - A surge in financing events has been observed, indicating strong capital inflow into the commercial space sector, with a total of 31 financing events completed by July 2025, amounting to 2.143 billion yuan [3][4] Industry Development - China's commercial space industry has established three major industrial clusters: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, creating a comprehensive industrial system [2] - The frequency and technology of launches have significantly increased, with notable successful launches in October, showcasing the industry's capabilities [2] - By 2030, the market size of China's commercial space industry is projected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, highlighting its potential for future growth [5] Financing and Investment - Recent months have seen an acceleration in financing activities, with companies like Star Glory Aerospace and Xinghe Power securing substantial funding [4] - The IPO process for several commercial space companies is also advancing, indicating a growing interest from the capital markets [4] - The development of the commercial space industry is supported by multiple factors, including policy incentives, capital influx, enhanced innovation capabilities, and increasing market demand [4]

Core Insights - The company successfully completed the engine system test for the Zhishen-1 reusable liquid launch vehicle, marking a significant milestone towards its maiden flight scheduled for 2026 [1][2] - Zhishen-1 is designed for at least 25 reuse cycles and has a maximum payload capacity of 7 tons to low Earth orbit [1] - The company has developed several key technologies for the rocket's recovery and reuse, including a unique seven-engine parallel configuration and advanced manufacturing techniques [2] Group 1 - The Zhishen-1 rocket's first stage engine system test was successfully conducted at the Dongfang Spaceport, indicating that all major ground tests are complete and the rocket is ready for its first flight [1] - The rocket's first stage utilizes a configuration of seven self-developed CQ-50 engines, with a takeoff mass of approximately 283 tons [1] - The recent test validated the operational feasibility of the rocket's fueling and storage processes, as well as the compatibility of the pressurization and engine systems [1] Group 2 - The Zhishen-1's maiden flight is planned to take place at the Jiuquan "Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Zone," where the company is finalizing its self-built launch facility [2] - The facility will have capabilities for autonomous testing, fueling, and launching (recovery), and is nearing completion [2] - The company has conducted wind tunnel tests for the recovery guidance control system, providing critical data for its design [2]

Core Insights - The successful test of the first stage propulsion system for the Zhishen-1 reusable liquid launch vehicle marks a significant advancement for the company, indicating readiness for the upcoming maiden flight [1] - Zhishen-1 is designed for at least 25 reuse cycles, targeting the large satellite launch market with a lift-off mass of approximately 283 tons and a low Earth orbit capacity of 7 tons [1] - The company has developed several core technologies for the recovery and reuse of the first stage, including a unique seven-engine parallel scheme and advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing [1] Company Developments - The maiden flight of Zhishen-1 is planned to take place at the "Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Experimental Zone" in Jiuquan, with the construction of the launch site nearing completion [2] - The launch site will enhance the company's capabilities in autonomous testing, fueling, and launching (recovery), thereby improving its core competitiveness [2]

Commercial Aerospace - Xinghe Power successfully completed the test of the Zhishen-1 reusable liquid rocket's first stage power system, marking a significant step towards its maiden flight [1] - The Zhishen-1 is designed for at least 25 reuse cycles and targets the large satellite launch market, with plans for orbital recovery tests starting in 2026 [1] - Analysts believe the commercial aerospace industry will enter a high-speed growth phase by 2025, driven by advancements in reusable technology and cost reduction [1] Foldable Screens - Apple is expected to release a foldable iPhone next year, with a starting price around 16,000 yuan, competing with Huawei's Mate X6 [2] - The foldable iPhone is projected to have a shipment volume of 8-10 million units in 2026, potentially increasing to 25 million units by 2027 [2] - The supply chain for the foldable iPhone is in a critical validation phase, with significant focus on hinge and ultra-thin glass technologies [2] AI in Healthcare - The National Health Commission has issued guidelines to promote and regulate the application of AI in healthcare, aiming for widespread use of intelligent decision-making tools by 2027 [3] - By 2030, the goal is to achieve full coverage of intelligent assistance in primary healthcare settings [3] - The integration of AI in healthcare is seen as a key driver for high-quality development in the health industry [4] AI Glasses - The AI glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with major tech companies accelerating their investments [4] - The global shipment of AI glasses is expected to reach 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4] - By 2030, the market for AI glasses could exceed 30 billion USD, driven by advancements in technology and expanding application scenarios [5] Stem Cells - An international research team has developed a scalable production method for human kidney organoids, which could significantly reduce waiting times for chronic disease patients [5] - This method allows for the high-precision generation of thousands of kidney organoids in a controlled environment [5] Satellite Internet - The upcoming China Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Conference will focus on the development of the Beidou navigation application industry, which is expected to see significant growth [6] - The demand for core components and terminal devices in the satellite navigation industry is anticipated to increase, driven by advancements in technology and policy support [6] Innovative Drugs - The National Medical Insurance Administration is negotiating the pricing of innovative drugs for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, with 120 companies participating [7] - The global innovative drug market is projected to reach 1.1 trillion USD in 2024, with significant growth expected by 2030 [7] - The diversification of profit models is likely to enhance the profitability of innovative drug companies [7] Consumer Electronics - Nintendo has raised its sales forecast for the Switch 2 to 19 million units by March next year, reflecting strong demand [8] - The consumer electronics industry is expected to evolve towards smart, ecological, and sustainable development, with AI becoming a core driver [8] - The global tablet shipment reached 39.035 million units in the second quarter of 2025, marking a 9.3% year-on-year growth [8]