Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is transitioning from a centralized to a distributed electronic architecture, with SoC chips becoming the core component for intelligent driving [3][4]. Group 1: Market Size and Growth - By 2030, the domestic intelligent driving solution market is expected to exceed 400 billion RMB, with global and Chinese smart vehicle sales projected to reach 81.5 million and 29.8 million units respectively [4]. - The penetration rates for intelligent driving (ADAS + AD) are anticipated to reach 96.7% globally and 99.7% in China by 2030, with the market size for intelligent driving solutions expected to surpass 1 trillion RMB globally and 400 billion RMB in China [4]. Group 2: SoC Market Dynamics - In 2024, NVIDIA is expected to dominate the high-end SoC market with over 30% market share, while Horizon is projected to lead the mid-to-low-end market with over 40% share, which is likely to expand further [4]. - Mainstream automakers are entering the vehicle SoC chip market through self-research, joint ventures, strategic investments, and collaborations, but the majority will still rely on third-party SoC manufacturers like NVIDIA and Horizon due to the lengthy development cycle and high costs associated with vehicle-grade chips [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Demand - The penetration of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) is expected to accelerate in the lower market segments, with demand for mid-to-high performance chips increasing as new technologies focus on VLA (Vehicle Location Awareness) and world models [6]. - By 2025, urban NOA is projected to enter the 150,000 to 250,000 RMB price range, with BYD promoting "intelligent driving equality," potentially driving high-end intelligent driving features into vehicles priced around 100,000 RMB [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA and Horizon Robotics, with a recommendation to "Hold" for Black Sesame Technology and Youjia Innovation [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is transitioning from a distributed to a centralized electronic architecture, with SoC chips becoming the core components of intelligent driving [2][9]. - By 2030, the domestic intelligent driving solution market is expected to exceed 400 billion RMB, with significant market shares held by NVIDIA and Horizon Robotics in the high-end and mid-low-end SoC markets, respectively [3][4]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by automakers in achieving profitability while entering the SoC market, indicating that third-party SoC manufacturers will continue to play a crucial role [4][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Automotive Intelligent Driving Trends - Intelligent driving is defined as the use of computer systems to achieve partial or complete automation of vehicle driving, categorized into five levels by SAE [19][20]. - The transition from distributed to centralized electronic architecture is driven by the need for enhanced functionality and efficiency in intelligent driving systems [23][24]. Section 2: Market Size and Share - The report forecasts that the global and Chinese intelligent driving (ADAS + AD) solution markets will exceed 1 trillion RMB and 400 billion RMB, respectively, by 2030, with penetration rates reaching 96.7% and 99.7% [3][4]. - In 2024, NVIDIA is expected to hold over 30% of the high-end SoC market, while Horizon Robotics is projected to maintain over 40% of the mid-low-end market [3][4]. Section 3: Industry Dynamics - Automakers are exploring various strategies to enter the SoC market, including self-research, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships, but face significant challenges in achieving profitability [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for high-performance, cost-effective SoC chips as urban navigation assistance (NOA) penetrates lower-priced vehicle segments [4][9]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as L3-level regulations and policies are refined, the penetration of L2+ and above intelligent driving systems is expected to accelerate, benefiting third-party SoC manufacturers [5][11]. - Key companies to watch include NVIDIA, Horizon Robotics, Qualcomm, Black Sesame Technology, and Youjia Innovation, with a focus on their growth potential in the intelligent driving SoC market [5][11].