商务大数据显示，2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周(环比，下同)上涨 0.3%。 有色金属价格继续上涨，其中铜、铝、锌分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.7%。 橡胶价格略有上涨，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别上涨0.8%和0.2%。 钢材价格稳中有降，其中螺纹钢每吨3360元，与前一周基本持平，普通中板、槽钢每吨3639元和3544 元，均下降0.2%。 成品油批发价格略有下降，其中0号柴油、95号汽油、92号汽油分别下降0.6%、0.5%和0.4%。 煤炭价格小幅下降，其中炼焦煤、动力煤、无烟块煤每吨1037元、774元和1156元，分别下降1.4%、 0.4%和0.3%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中聚丙烯、硫酸均上涨0.2%，纯碱与前一周基本持平，甲醇下降 0.1%。 化肥价格基本持平，其中尿素、三元复合肥均与前一周基本持平。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. However, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology and growth are still the main market trends. Index investment should focus on buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market supply - demand pattern may improve, but it will maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex. Some are expected to strengthen due to factors such as supply disturbances and cost support, while others may face pressure due to factors such as over - supply and weak demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - events and industry fundamentals [41][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%. The National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department. The central bank continued to ban virtual currencies. Metal prices soared on Friday, with silver and copper hitting record highs [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the index should be bought on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In November, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing business activity index declined. Japan revised its bond issuance plan. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Friday, with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the manufacturing PMI data showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. Silver has entered the accelerated peak - hitting stage, and its technical trend conforms to the characteristics of previous second - stage rises. The current overseas position and inventory levels are not in a state of "delivery difficulties" [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is in an accelerated rise, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, profits should be taken in time. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high prices. Shanghai gold is at the end of a triangular convergence breakthrough pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Concerns about smelting production cuts led copper prices to break through historical highs. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic futures exchange inventory decreased. The domestic spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors still exist, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the expectation of smelting production cuts drives copper prices to rise. The downstream operating rate is stable and strong, so copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen [12]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots continued to decline. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to decline, and the trading was average [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disturbances, stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to rise further [14]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The LME zinc price fell. The domestic social zinc inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased after considering the in - transit and factory inventories. The zinc import was at a loss [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit is under pressure. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. The current situation of the zinc industry is not in resonance with the strong macro - sentiment, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. The LME lead price also rose. The domestic social lead inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap price difference was at par [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the primary smelting operating rate has declined, and the secondary smelting operating rate has continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased. In the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, so lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The spot price premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable, while the nickel iron price continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The inventory of the futures exchange increased, and the LME tin inventory also increased. The supply of tin concentrate has been slightly relieved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but emerging fields provide long - term support. The social inventory has decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the demand in the tin market is weak in the short - term, the supply disturbance is the decisive factor for short - term prices. Therefore, tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, while the futures price increased. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts the bullish sentiment, but there are differences in future demand expectations. The change of the mining permit of Jiaxiawo Mine is a short - term positive for the spot but a long - term negative for supply. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere of the equity market [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. The domestic spot price was at a premium to the futures. The overseas price fell, and the import window was opened. The futures inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot prices in different markets were stable or decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures and social inventories decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel mill production is at a high level, the demand has improved marginally, but the cost pressure has squeezed the profit, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The market lacks a clear upward momentum, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and there are policy disturbances on the supply side. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The spot prices in different regions were stable or increased [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market adjusted on Friday, and the prices of steel products fluctuated. The supply and demand of rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The anti - dumping tax imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel will affect exports. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, so attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and important meetings [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price fell. The spot price was at a premium to the futures, and the port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, the demand weakened, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability was at a low level. The overall inventory of iron ore is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillatory range [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions decreased. The soda ash main contract price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions also decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For glass, the supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has improved briefly, but the overall trading is still light, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For soda ash, the industry operating rate has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased slightly, the price is stable, but it is still recommended to be bearish in the short - term [37][38]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price was flat. The prices of the two in the spot market were stable, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has improved. The black - building materials sector is still in a weak state, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. For manganese silicon, the fundamentals are not ideal, and there are no major contradictions. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [41][42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term trading volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the trend has become dull. The production has continued to decline, the demand from the polysilicon sector has weakened, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price is easily affected by the sentiment of other new - energy varieties [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price rose. The spot prices of different types were stable, and the futures was at a premium to the spot [45][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The spot price is stable, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [47]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded. The flood in the Thai rubber - producing area receded, and the exchange inventory was low. The tire factory operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to adopt a neutral strategy, wait and see, or conduct short - term trading. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil products also rose. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore decreased, while the fuel oil inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy is maintained, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [54]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iranian plant shutdowns have been realized, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market expectation has changed. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to turn to an oscillatory adjustment after the positive factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trading and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity [55]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has support from export policies and costs, so it is recommended to consider buying at low prices [57]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, the basis decreased. The styrene spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and the valuation has a large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, the styrene operating rate is rising, and the inventory is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point occurs, the non - integrated profit of styrene can be long [59]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The production cost increased, the operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is at a low level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export cannot digest the excess capacity. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [61][62]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose, the spot price fell, the basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The supply load increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, the import volume will decrease slightly, and the port inventory accumulation may slow down. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is still weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [64]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unexpected maintenance of PTA is expected to decrease. The downstream polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and the PX has a risk of a slight valuation correction [66]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 3 spread was negative. The p - xylene operating rate decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate increased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, the downstream PTA operating rate is low, and the PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [68]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price was stable, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth may support oil prices. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices