来源：新华财经 专家认为，美方可能逐步升级军事行动规模，或是混合实施上述打击方式，而伊朗的谈判立场以及遭打 击后的回应力度可能成为冲突走向的关键。在伊朗看来，美国的三种打法可能不存在区别，都将予以坚 决反制。伊朗外交部发言人已明确表示，"不存在所谓'有限打击'，任何袭击都将被视为侵略"。 专家称，美军一旦对伊动武，可能引发一系列连锁反应，或致美国难以"收场"。一是美方人员伤亡；二 是冲突快速外溢；三是冲击全球能源市场与供应链。中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所专家王永中 表示，伊朗具备关闭霍尔木兹海峡的能力，其短期战术干扰就足以导致全球油价恐慌性上涨。此外，胡 塞武装对美以船只的报复打击可能再度引发红海航运危机，加剧全球通胀与供应链震荡，而这也将反噬 美国经济。 短期波动或加剧 春节假期期间，受美伊冲突影响，国际油价表现强势。市场普遍认为，一旦地缘扰动消退，在供应压力 下油价大概率重归跌势。对于"大宗商品之王"的普遍看跌情绪明显有悖于对2026年大宗商品的普遍乐观 看法，因原油对于能源化工乃至很多农产品都具有举足轻重的影响力。不少投资者因看好2026年商品走 势，近期布局了油气、化工类商品或股票，"若地缘扰动 ...

近期，中东局势持续紧张。据以色列媒体报道，11架美军F-22战斗机24日飞抵以南部一处空军基地。前 一天，美国海军"福特"号航空母舰现身东地中海区域的希腊克里特岛进行补给，美军在中东地区即将完 成"双航母"部署。 春节假期期间，受美伊冲突影响，国际油价表现强势。市场普遍认为，一旦地缘扰动消退，在供应压力 下油价大概率重归跌势。对于"大宗商品之王"的普遍看跌情绪明显有悖于对2026年大宗商品的普遍乐观 看法，因原油对于能源化工乃至很多农产品都具有举足轻重的影响力。不少投资者因看好2026年商品走 势，近期布局了油气、化工类商品或股票，"若地缘扰动消退，油价能否保持坚挺"成为更受关注的问 题。 地缘局势持续紧张 美伊定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮谈判。与此同时，媒体报道美国总统特朗普有意对伊朗先进 行"有限打击"，然后视情升级军事行动规模。 据新华社报道，就美国对伊军事行动，美国智库大西洋理事会中东项目高级主任威廉·韦克斯勒分析了 三种可能的打击模式。 一是"有限打击"，短期打击伊朗军方和安全力量重要目标，包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队和关键基础设施 等，以建立威慑。 二是"长期削弱"，周期性打击伊朗核设施、导弹及无人 ...

新华财经北京2月26日电春节假期期间，受美伊冲突影响，国际油价表现强势。市场普遍认为，一旦地 缘扰动消退，在供应压力下油价大概率重归跌势。对于"大宗商品之王"的普遍看跌情绪明显有悖于对 2026年大宗商品的普遍乐观看法，因原油对于能源化工乃至很多农产品都具有举足轻重的影响力。不少 投资者因看好2026年商品走势，近期布局了油气、化工类商品或股票，"若地缘扰动消退，油价能否保 持坚挺"成为更受关注的问题。 地缘局势持续紧张 近期，中东局势持续紧张。据以色列媒体报道，11架美军F-22战斗机24日飞抵以南部一处空军基地。前 一天，美国海军"福特"号航空母舰现身东地中海区域的希腊克里特岛进行补给，美军在中东地区即将完 成"双航母"部署。 美伊定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮谈判。与此同时，媒体报道美国总统特朗普有意对伊朗先进 行"有限打击"，然后视情升级军事行动规模。 据新华社报道，就美国对伊军事行动，美国智库大西洋理事会中东项目高级主任威廉·韦克斯勒分析了 三种可能的打击模式。 一是"有限打击"，短期打击伊朗军方和安全力量重要目标，包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队和关键基础设施 等，以建立威慑。 二是"长期削弱"，周期性打 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月26日电（左元）春节假期期间，受美伊冲突影响，国际油价表现强势。市场普遍认为，一旦地缘扰动消退，在供应压力下油价大概率重 归跌势。对于"大宗商品之王"的普遍看跌情绪明显有悖于对2026年大宗商品的普遍乐观看法，因原油对于能源化工乃至很多农产品都具有举足轻重的影响 力。不少投资者因看好2026年商品走势，近期布局了油气、化工类商品或股票，"若地缘扰动消退，油价能否保持坚挺"成为更受关注的问题。 地缘局势持续紧张 近期，中东局势持续紧张。据以色列媒体报道，11架美军F-22战斗机24日飞抵以南部一处空军基地。前一天，美国海军"福特"号航空母舰现身东地中海区 域的希腊克里特岛进行补给，美军在中东地区即将完成"双航母"部署。 美伊定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮谈判。与此同时，媒体报道美国总统特朗普有意对伊朗先进行"有限打击"，然后视情升级军事行动规模。 据新华社报道，就美国对伊军事行动，美国智库大西洋理事会中东项目高级主任威廉·韦克斯勒分析了三种可能的打击模式。 一是"有限打击"，短期打击伊朗军方和安全力量重要目标，包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队和关键基础设施等，以建立威慑。 二是"长期削弱 ...

万得基金 机构研究周报：节后成长或更具弹性，大宗商品轮动机会显现 原创 阅读全文 分享一篇文章。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity price movements in relation to the global macroeconomic cycle, highlighting the distinct phases of "recovery, prosperity, stagflation, and recession" and their corresponding impacts on different commodity sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Phases and Commodity Performance - During the recovery phase, black and non-ferrous metals typically lead price increases driven by improved demand, while agricultural products like grains remain stable [1] - In the prosperity phase, energy and industrial metals lead the price surge, with agricultural products rising due to inflation transmission and increased planting costs [1] - The stagflation phase sees a divergence in commodity performance, with inflation-resistant assets like gold and oil outperforming, while industrial demand weakens [1] - In the recession phase, overall commodity prices decline, with industrial products falling the most, while safe-haven assets like gold and essential agricultural products experience smaller declines [1] Group 2: Sensitivity to Economic Signals - Commodities sensitive to interest rates, such as precious metals and industrial metals like copper, face increased holding costs during rising interest rates, leading to quicker adjustments [2] - Agricultural products and energy, with more rigid demand, are less affected by short-term interest rate fluctuations compared to supply and demand fundamentals [2] Group 3: Internal Mechanisms of Industrial Products - The price dynamics of black metals like steel and coal are closely tied to infrastructure investment and real estate cycles, with a clear transmission path from policy stimulus to steel demand and coal prices [2] - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are driven by global manufacturing PMI and renewable energy demand, with price movements linked to economic recovery expectations and inventory depletion [2] - Chemical products are strongly correlated with oil prices, with price transmission influenced by oil costs and adjustments in production rates [2] Group 4: Global Supply Chain and Commodity Rotation - The global division of labor has significantly reshaped the paths of commodity rotation, with China as a key demand driver for industrial products, influencing the rotation of black metals and certain chemicals [4] - The development of the renewable energy sector has altered the demand structure for non-ferrous metals like lithium and copper [4] - Supply constraints from resource-producing countries directly impact commodity prices, with geopolitical risks and trade policies exacerbating regional supply-demand mismatches [4]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that after significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the market is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and the strong dollar, which may lead to a bearish outlook for gold prices in the short term [11][12][10] - The report suggests that high-risk investors with insufficient positions may consider participating in gold and silver trading to adjust their holdings, while long-term asset allocation should reduce gold's proportion due to uncertainties surrounding inflation control and strong dollar policies [11][12][10] Group 2: Market Performance in January - In January, precious metals continued to show strong performance, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX silver rising by 131.61% and COMEX gold increasing by 26.44% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026 [13][14] - The report highlights a structural recovery in the domestic stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% in January, while the performance of financial and consumer sectors was relatively weak [15][19] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The report notes that the commodity market is characterized by increased geopolitical disturbances and rising risk premiums for physical assets, with industrial metals supported by recovering manufacturing activity and structural demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [29][30] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, with expectations of oversupply in the medium term as global supply is projected to increase significantly [35][36] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9% due to policy support and market expectations [28][21] - The report indicates that the defensive attributes of the bond market have weakened, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards equities and commodities amid rising risk appetite [16][21]

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the recent dynamics in the commodity market, particularly focusing on the significant price declines observed since January 30, 2026, with silver futures being the primary commodity affected [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Commodity Price Movements - A notable price drop in commodities has been observed, with silver futures leading the decline, followed by tin, platinum, palladium, nickel, copper, aluminum, and eventually impacting crude oil and lithium carbonate [3][4]. - The price of domestic silver futures remains 30% higher than the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, indicating a significant premium [5]. Market Dynamics and Liquidity Risks - The liquidity risk in the market is primarily concentrated in silver, with over 90,000 short positions unable to be cleared, triggering margin calls and subsequent sell-offs [4][6]. - The gold market is relatively stable, with a fair pricing mechanism, and is less affected by liquidity risks compared to silver [6]. Future Market Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that severe commodity price fluctuations often follow similar transmission chains, necessitating close monitoring of domestic and international price premiums [7]. - There is potential for recovery in certain commodities that may have been oversold, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with aluminum identified as a key focus [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The call highlights three main investment themes for 2026: non-ferrous metals (with a focus on aluminum), renewable energy materials, and critical raw materials in high-tech industries [8]. - The basic and fine chemical sectors are also recommended for investment, as they may experience a rebound due to inventory replenishment and capacity restructuring after a prolonged period of destocking [10]. Gold as an Investment - Gold continues to be viewed as a valuable investment, with central banks maintaining a trend of purchasing gold, which is expected to persist despite recent market volatility [11]. Monitoring Silver Futures - Silver futures are considered a critical indicator for assessing market sentiment and liquidity. A recovery in silver futures could signal a stabilization in the broader commodity market [12]. Additional Important Insights - The A-share market's volatility is largely driven by emotional transmission rather than fundamental deterioration, with significant correlations observed with U.S. stock market movements [13][14]. - The current market fluctuations are primarily liquidity-driven, with expectations of stabilization in the precious metals matrix in the near term [15]. - Several sectors are highlighted for potential investment, including commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment, which are expected to attract attention in the upcoming market cycles [16][17]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to manage their positions and timing carefully, focusing on growth sectors while being adaptable to rapid market rotations, especially around the Chinese New Year [18].

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The years 2024 and 2025 are expected to be "golden years" for gold, with COMEX gold prices projected to rise by 20.17% in 2024 and further increase by 55.51% in 2025. However, by 2026, the focus may shift towards non-ferrous metals as economic conditions change [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices during 2024-2025 is attributed to a combination of factors: a slowing global economy, high inflation leading to sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and increased gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold reserves [2]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge has surged, especially with expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, contributing to a bullish gold market [2]. Group 2: Shift to Non-Ferrous Metals - As the global economy begins to recover and liquidity enters the real economy, the market sentiment is shifting from "defensive" to "growth-oriented," indicating a potential focus on non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [3][4]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is seen as a representative of economic growth, with expectations of significant returns as the market transitions from traditional safe-haven assets [4]. Group 3: Metal Price Projections - Precious metals, particularly gold, have recently surpassed $4800 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and a restructuring of the international economic landscape, suggesting a continued strong performance [5]. - Industrial metals are expected to see a shift from surplus to shortage, particularly in copper, due to limited supply and increased demand from infrastructure projects and energy transitions [6]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to benefit from rising demand in battery storage and supply disruptions, with prices expected to remain elevated [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors seeking stable opportunities aligned with economic recovery, focusing on industrial metals such as copper and aluminum is recommended, as their performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [6]. - For those with a higher risk tolerance looking for long-term growth in the high-tech and renewable energy sectors, investments in energy metals like lithium and cobalt are suggested [7]. - Investors prioritizing risk defense and uncertainty management should consider funds focused on precious metals like gold, which offer a more straightforward safe-haven attribute [7].