为了帮大家看清2026年一季度大类资产轮动与风向变化、热点行业的前瞻解读，我们一季度预计邀请多位——百亿私募敦和资管首席经济学家徐 小庆、广发证券首席策略分析师刘晨明，知名经济学家《见证逆潮》作者付鹏，原高盛大中华区宏观交易主管袁骏，GSB奖台基金创始人，原德 意志银行董事总经理郭胜北，东吴证券研究所计算机首席分析师王紫敬，承誉资本股权业务主管、中国台湾资深半导体产业人士骆思远等嘉宾， 来分享他们对资产风向与轮动，地缘局势跟踪与分析、行业热点前瞻与解读的最新洞察。 股市方面，A股18连阳行情后有所回撤，成交量创下历史新高，逼近4万亿大关，科技与顺周期板块成资金主线，而美股则高位回调，特朗 普宣布提名沃什出任美联储主席，引爆市场鹰派预期，市场关注美联储政策举措转向。春节假期期间，美国最高法院裁决 IEEPA 关税非 法，特朗普随即用新的行政令，对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征15%的进口关税，并加速推动301和232审查，全球关税的不确定性冲击再 次来袭。 债市方面，中债呈牛平特征收益率曲线下移，而美债则熊陡走弱，收益率有所上行，市场对2026美联储降息节奏预期趋谨慎。 大宗商品市场更是冰火两重天，贵金属、有色金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of Moutai has ignited the entire liquor sector, with significant price movements and market reactions indicating a potential recovery in the industry after a prolonged adjustment period [1][2][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's stock price surged by 8.61% on January 29, marking the highest single-day increase since February 2025, and its market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price of Moutai has rebounded over 18% from its low, approaching a critical technical bull market position, which could influence the extent of its price increase and the nature of the rebound [4]. - The price of Moutai's 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai is psychologically anchored at 1499 yuan, and if the market price falls below this level, Moutai may implement strategies to stabilize prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is traditionally a peak consumption period for liquor, and the introduction of iMoutai has helped stabilize prices after a previous decline [1][4]. - There is a notable increase in demand for flying Moutai during the Spring Festival, but post-holiday, consumer purchasing behavior may revert to more rational levels, potentially affecting prices [4]. - The overall liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with first-tier brands like Moutai indicating a gradual exit from the adjustment phase, which could positively impact the pricing structure across the sector [7]. Group 3: Collectible Liquor Market - The collectible value of Moutai's zodiac-themed products is under scrutiny, with some experts advising caution regarding their investment potential, as past releases have shown significant price fluctuations [5]. - The market for zodiac-themed Moutai has seen substantial price adjustments, with the latest batch experiencing a drop from 2750 yuan to 2280 yuan per bottle [4][5]. - Comparatively, other collectible products, such as the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring, have demonstrated even higher premium rates, raising questions about Moutai's relative value in the collectible market [1]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The liquor industry has experienced multiple adjustment cycles since 1999, with the current cycle, which began in 2022, being notably prolonged, reflecting broader economic challenges and shifts in consumer demand [8][9]. - The recovery of the liquor sector is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, with expectations for a turning point in the industry by the second half of 2026 as inventory levels normalize [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with indices likely to perform better post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The report emphasizes a preference for growth style investments, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors, as the market remains in a spring rally phase [1][2]. Market Style Outlook - Growth style is favored, with a convergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks anticipated. The recommended indices include CSI 1000, ChiNext 50, CSI 300 Quality, and CSI 800 Information [2]. - Historical data from 2016-2025 indicates that small-cap and growth styles have a higher success rate in February. The late timing of the Spring Festival and the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to enhance the performance of small-cap stocks due to increased market risk appetite [2]. Fundamental Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 49.3, indicating a return to contraction territory, with both production and demand showing marginal declines. The ongoing structural issue of insufficient domestic demand remains, with policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption expected to be a primary focus [2]. - On the international front, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a weaker dollar may lead to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which could exert pressure on A-share cyclical styles. However, sectors benefiting from industrial trends, such as technology and AI, are likely to be less affected [2]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to continue flowing in before the holiday and financing likely to rebound afterward. The central bank's measures to counteract liquidity tightening from government bond issuances in January are expected to maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment in February [3][4]. - The stock market experienced a net outflow of tracked capital in January, with financing becoming the main source of incremental capital. The demand side shows an increase in net reductions by major shareholders, while IPO and refinancing scales have decreased, keeping overall funding demand stable [4]. Market Sentiment and Capital Preferences - In January, the risk premium for the entire A-share market fluctuated, with major indices experiencing initial gains followed by volatility. The technology sector remained the dominant style, with significant trading activity in small-cap growth and STAR 50 indices, while large-cap growth styles saw lower trading concentration [4].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 成长占优，大小盘表现差异收敛 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202602） 展望 2 月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。日 历效应显示 2 月小盘、成长风格的胜率相对更高，考虑到市场仍处春季行情阶 段，风格层面继续推荐成长风格，大小盘表现差异有望收敛，先大盘后小盘。推 荐指数主要包括中证 1000、创业板 50、300 质量、800 信息等。 ❑流动性与资金供需：2 月增量资金或继续净流入，节前外资有望继续净流入， 节后融资有望回流。宏观流动性方面，政府债券在 1 月集中发行缴款，对流动 性形成一定抽水效应。央行采取了精准有力的对冲措施，通过中期流动性工具 弥补资金缺口，2 月资金面有望继续保持平稳充裕。外部流动性方面，从特朗 普新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策主张来看，沃什更可能采取温和且渐进的降 息策略，其更倾向于将降息与缩减资产负债表（缩表）配合，以对冲宽松效应， 避免通胀反弹。目前市场对 2026 年的降息预期从原先的 1 次上调至 2 次。股 票市场资金供需方面，1 月股票市场可跟踪资金转为净流出，融资成为主力增 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 investment strategy conference hosted by Harvest Fund focused on macro policy trends, equity market layout, ETF evolution, and structural opportunities in the context of "反内卷" (anti-involution) and "扩内需" (expanding domestic demand) [1][35] Market Outlook - The Chinese economy demonstrated significant policy resilience and development stability in 2025, with proactive fiscal and stable monetary policies creating a relatively loose macro environment [3][37] - The equity market in 2026 is expected to experience a rationally optimistic outlook, with potential significant shifts in market style and structure, influenced by domestic demand sectors [3][39] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on two main opportunities: the "AI+" downstream applications and upstream raw materials, as well as low-position domestic demand sectors benefiting from profit recovery and domestic demand expansion measures [5][39] - The ETF market is anticipated to see explosive growth in 2025, with a focus on dynamic asset allocation to navigate market volatility effectively [5][40] Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income sector remains a cornerstone for asset allocation, with approximately 50 trillion yuan in term deposits maturing in 2026, creating substantial demand for stable fixed income products [5][43] - The current economic environment is characterized by a "K-shaped recovery," necessitating adjustments in bond market analysis frameworks [5][43] Multi-Strategy Approach - A multi-strategy investment approach is essential to adapt to the accelerating market rotation, with a focus on "胜率思维" (probability thinking) to enhance certainty in investment outcomes [5][45] - Harvest Fund has developed a diverse product range to meet varying investor needs, emphasizing both standardized and personalized investment products [5][47] Technology and AI Investment - The "科技AI" (technology and AI) sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with ongoing advancements expected to reshape industry ecosystems [5][49] - Investment in AI is still in its early stages, with significant long-term potential despite current volatility [5][53] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The dual policies of "反内卷" and "扩内需" are seen as central to understanding current and future macroeconomic and industrial changes in China [5][59] - Investors are encouraged to identify structural investment opportunities that benefit from improved competitive environments and potential profit recovery [5][61]

特朗普引爆地缘"恐慌"之际，达沃斯"秀场"引发全球瞩目。 日前，世界经济论坛 · 达沃斯年会在瑞士启幕，多国政要、商界巨擘齐聚于此。 据说，此次论坛将有400位顶级政治领导人出席，还有约1700位商界领袖参会。 此次行程，特朗普将就格陵兰岛争端与各方举行会谈。 在启程前，他便宣称"夺岛的计划没有回头路可走"，达沃斯之行将会非常有趣。 特朗普执意"夺岛"，跨大西洋同盟正陷入数十年来最严重的危机。 近期，特朗普宣布对欧洲八国家征收10%的关税，对法国葡萄酒和香槟征200%关税… 贸易战的阴云，彻底笼罩了本届达沃斯论坛。 目前，特朗普政府几大关键人物也纷纷就美国经济、贸易关税等问题表态。 美国财长贝森特在达沃斯紧急"灭火"。 全球秩序持续"地震"的当下，地缘政治、贸易关税、科技AI等热议话题成为世界关注的焦点。 迟到的特朗普 处于世界风暴中心的特朗普，姗姗来迟。 据世界经济论坛对外公布的日程，特朗普原将于北京时间21:30在达沃斯发表公开讲话。 但因为总统专机故障导致行程延误，川普将迟到大约3个小时抵达达沃斯。 他呼吁盟友遵守贸易协定，不担忧美债抛售问题，并驳斥欧洲将"清仓"美债报复特朗普为"无稽之谈"。 他还透露 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has recently shifted from a cooling trend to a rebound led by the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, with several large-cap active equity funds reaching new net asset value (NAV) highs [1][12]. Fund Performance - A total of 8 large-cap active equity funds achieved new NAV highs on January 19-20, 2026, indicating strong performance in the current market environment [2][12]. - The top-performing funds include: - **Guangfa Multi-Factor Mixed Fund**: NAV reached 168.64 billion, managed by Yang Dong and Tang Xiaobin, with a long-term annualized return of over 24% [3][14]. - **China Europe Dividend Preferred Flexible Allocation Mixed A**: NAV reached 168.38 billion, managed by Lan Xiaokang, with an average return exceeding 40% across three products in 2025 [3][14]. - **Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Intelligent Selection Mixed Fund A**: NAV reached 194.62 billion, managed by Zhang Lu [3][14]. Market Trends - The recent rebound in the electronics sector is crucial for the recovery of large-cap funds, particularly the **Xingquan He Run Fund**, which is close to recovering its maximum drawdown from 2021 [7][16]. - The **Xingquan He Run Fund** has a scale of nearly 250 billion and is only 2% away from its historical high, indicating a strong potential for recovery if the electronics sector maintains its momentum [8][16]. Investment Strategies - The funds that have performed well are characterized by their focus on value investing and long-term stability, avoiding short-term market trends [4][14]. - Fund managers who have successfully navigated recent market conditions include those who focused on technology and renewable energy sectors, demonstrating a strategic approach rather than relying on luck [6][15]. Additional Notable Funds - Other large-cap funds worth monitoring include: - **Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Fund** and **Guangfa Steady Growth Fund**, both of which have also shown resilience and are close to recovering from previous drawdowns [9][17].

Group 1 - The market has successfully surpassed the 4000-point mark, indicating a bullish trend with increased trading volume and a breakout characteristic [1] - All major indices, including Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and others, have shown upward movement, confirming the authenticity of the current rally [1] - The semiconductor sector has seen significant gains during the holiday, positively impacting the Hong Kong market, although its performance in the A-share market was below expectations [1] Group 2 - The AI application sector, particularly in digital media, gaming, and AI agents, has demonstrated strong upward momentum [1] - The human brain engineering sector has emerged as a new focus, showing short-term stimulation potential with notable stock increases [2] - The overall market trend is centered around technology and AI, with expectations for related infrastructure and data sectors to perform well in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of quality stocks since October, particularly those with low price-to-earnings ratios and attractive dividend yields, suggesting that these stocks will continue to attract attention as the year ends and the new year begins [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Quality stocks have shown robust performance, with the low price-to-earnings index rising over 8% and the performance index for quality stocks increasing over 6% [3]. - The market is expected to focus on quality stocks, especially those with good dividend yields and trading at lower valuations [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Tianfeng Securities suggests three main investment themes for the upcoming spring market: 1. Technology AI sector led by DeepSeek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives 2. Economic recovery driven by both domestic and international factors, continuing the "stronger gets stronger" trend in the bull market, with opportunities in cyclical sectors 3. The ongoing rise of undervalued dividend stocks [4]. Group 3: Notable Stocks - According to statistics, 12 stocks have a dividend yield exceeding 3% and have retraced more than 30% from their yearly highs, excluding ST stocks [4]. - Notable companies include: - Transsion Holdings, valued at nearly 80 billion, is a leader in the African mobile phone market, benefiting from the transition from feature phones to smartphones [4]. - Huali Group, valued at nearly 60 billion, is a leading sports shoe manufacturer, expected to maintain rapid growth through expansion and new client acquisition [4]. - Aima Technology and Lianmei Holdings have shown significant net profit growth in the first three quarters, with Aima's revenue increasing nearly 21% and net profit up nearly 23% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Institutional Interest - Certain stocks have gained favor among institutional investors, with Transsion Holdings, Huali Group, and Ganyuan Foods seeing significant holdings valued over 100 million as of the end of Q3 [5]. - Companies like Huali Group, Jinyu Medical, and Aima Technology are highlighted as favorites among institutional investors [5]. Group 5: Dividend Performance - Companies such as Ousheng Electric, Transsion Holdings, and Lianmei Holdings have shown substantial cumulative dividend rates exceeding 190% over the past three years [5]. - Ousheng Electric has maintained a dividend rate above 70% for four consecutive years, while Transsion Holdings and Lianmei Holdings have consistently exceeded 50% annually in the last three years [5].

Group 1 - High-quality stocks have shown strong performance since October, with low P/E index rising over 8% and performance stocks index increasing over 6% [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests focusing on three investment themes for the upcoming spring market: AI technology breakthroughs, economic recovery driven by internal and external resonance, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [1] - According to statistics, 12 stocks have a dividend yield exceeding 3% and have retraced over 30% from their yearly highs, excluding ST stocks [1] Group 2 - Aima Technology and Lianmei Holdings have reported significant year-on-year net profit growth in the first three quarters, with Aima's revenue increasing nearly 21% and net profit up nearly 23% [2] - Lianmei Holdings is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider with significant growth potential, supported by its strategic location and successful investment ventures [2] - Institutions have shown interest in stocks like Transsion Holdings and Huali Group, with insurance funds holding over 100 million yuan in these stocks as of the end of Q3 [2] Group 3 - Companies like Ousheng Electric, Transsion Holdings, and Lianmei Holdings have demonstrated substantial dividend payouts over the past three years, with cumulative dividend rates exceeding 190% [3] - Ousheng Electric has maintained a dividend rate above 70% for four consecutive years, while Transsion Holdings and Lianmei Holdings have consistently exceeded 50% annually [3] - Lianmei Holdings has announced multiple shareholder return plans, highlighting its commitment to investor returns [3] Group 4 - The table lists high dividend yield stocks with significant cumulative dividends over three years, including Ousheng Electric (4.58% yield, 249.05% cumulative dividend), Transsion Holdings (4.46% yield, 214.61% cumulative dividend), and Lianmei Holdings (4.54% yield, 199.10% cumulative dividend) [4] - Other notable stocks include Ganyuan Food (5.02% yield), Huali Group (4.48% yield), and Aima Technology (3.09% yield) [4]