Group 1 - The Chinese asset market is experiencing a rebound, with both A-shares and H-shares continuing their strong upward trend from the previous day. The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 3% in the afternoon [1] - The optical module CPO concept is leading the market, with significant price increases observed in related stocks such as "Yizhongtian" [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened high and continued to rise, with tech stocks, semiconductor stocks, and automotive stocks remaining active [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities has indicated that domestic policies are entering a phase of intensive catalysis, with clearer measures expected from the U.S. following the implementation of domestic policy plans. The current U.S. government shutdown is a pressing issue that needs resolution [1] - There is a close and broad economic cooperation between China and the U.S., with market reactions becoming more rational. The marginal effects of tariff impacts are decreasing, and a video call between trade leaders from both countries has taken place ahead of the APEC meeting at the end of October [1] - The investment focus is being simplified into three directions: 1) Technology AI led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, 2) Economic recovery and market liquidity leading to a "stronger gets stronger" bull market style, and 3) The continued rise of undervalued assets [2]

Group 1: Market Insights on US-China Trade Relations - The report discusses the evolving dynamics of the US-China trade relationship, particularly in light of recent trade restrictions imposed by the US and corresponding countermeasures from China. The report highlights that despite tensions, both countries maintain significant economic cooperation, indicating that a complete decoupling is not feasible at this time [1][10][14] - The upcoming events, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC summit, are expected to clarify domestic policies in China and their implications for US relations. The report notes that the market's reaction has been more rational, with diminishing marginal effects from tariff impacts [1][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with CPI at -0.3% year-on-year and PPI at -2.3%. The PPI-CPI gap has also narrowed from -2.5% in August to -2% in September [2][23][24] - Exports and imports in September rebounded, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year and imports by 7.4%. The trade surplus was reported at $90.45 billion [2][31][32] - The report indicates a slight decline in social financing, with a total increase of 3.53 trillion yuan in September, which is 233.9 billion yuan less than the previous year. The structure of new loans shows a decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans [2][45][46] - Fiscal revenue showed improvement in September, with a year-on-year increase of 2.58%. Tax revenue rose by 8.66%, marking the highest growth rate for the year [2][54][55] Group 3: Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery leading to a "stronger gets stronger" market trend, and the continued rise of undervalued assets. It emphasizes the importance of the AI industry trend and its impact on investment opportunities [4][14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the challenges in the third phase of the "Saidian 2.0" initiative, highlighting the importance of Hang Seng Internet amidst economic recovery and market liquidity [1][7]. Industry Trends - Overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as electric equipment, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, light manufacturing, real estate, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automotive, public utilities, and environmental protection are experiencing a downward trend [2]. - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, including automotive services, commercial vehicles, automotive parts, rail transit equipment, lighting equipment, household appliance parts, chemical pharmaceuticals, non-metallic materials, plastics, consumer electronics, chemical fibers, electronic chemicals, and motors [2]. Key Data Points - In the automotive sector, the operating rate for semi-steel tires in China is reported at 46.51%, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 27.07 percentage points [3]. - In the machinery sector, the factory price for liquid oxygen in Shandong is reported at 270.0 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.85% [4]. - In the transportation sector, the weekly subway passenger volume in Beijing is 10.5665 million, showing a week-on-week increase of 52.78%, while in Suzhou, the volume is 1.896 million, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 21.94% [4]. - In the pharmaceutical sector, the market price for domestic vitamin E (50%) is reported at 47.5 CNY per kilogram, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.94% [5]. - In the basic chemical sector, the spot price for acetic acid is 2500.0 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63% [5]. - In the electronics sector, the average spot price for DRAM DDR3 (4Gb) is reported at 2.58 USD, with a week-on-week increase of 6.71% [6]. - In the electric equipment sector, the price for lithium hexafluorophosphate is reported at 67,500 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.66%, while the average price for lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [6]. Investment Strategy - The investment focus is categorized into three main directions: 1) breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in open-source technology AI, 2) internal and external resonance with gradual economic recovery, favoring a "stronger gets stronger" bull market style, though cyclical stocks may perform better in the latter half, and 3) the continued rise of undervalued dividends [1][7]. - The report suggests that during the early stages of a bull market, funds tend to favor a few high-sentiment sectors, while in later stages, funds concentrate on main lines, making it harder for new funds to profit [7].

天风证券研报指出，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：（1）Deepseek突 破与开源引领的科技AI。（2）内外共振，经济逐步修复，牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期后半段易 有所表现。（3）低估红利继续崛起。牛市初期资金更偏好少数高景气赛道，后期资金抱团聚焦主线， 新增资金获利难度提升，而周期股又具备低估值、高贝塔的属性，易随着基本面回暖的深化而发挥较好 的业绩弹性，获得增量资金青睐。 NO.3中金：节后A股有望延续稳健表现 震荡上行行情仍在延续 ｜2025年10月9日 星期四｜ NO.1中信建投：建议关注金银铜等有色板块投资机遇 中信建投证券研报认为，金银等贵金属和加密货币在国庆中秋假期迎来大涨。国际金价大涨的背后主要 是由美国政府"停摆"引发的短期波动、日本政治更迭带来的短期不确定性、美联储持续降息预期和全球 央行持续购金共同推动的。美国政府关门扰动、未来降息和衰退的预期使得全球投资者对美元信用和美 国主权债务的担忧进一步上升，这推动了金银等贵金属和比特币价格进一步走高。与此同时，供给短缺 和算力革命逻辑下，铜价近期也明显走强。建议关注金银铜等有色板块投资机遇。 NO.2天风证券：周 ...

Domestic Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI index rose to 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, indicating a marginal recovery in production activities, although it remains in the contraction zone [8][9] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50%, down from 50.3% in the previous month, while the composite PMI output index increased slightly to 50.6% from 50.5% [8][9] - Supply-side indicators showed improvement, with the production index and new orders index rising to 51.9% and 49.7%, respectively, reflecting a marginal increase [8][9] - The upstream price index has turned down for the first time since June, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was delayed, with the ADP employment number showing a decrease of 32,000, contrary to expectations of an increase of 51,000 [24] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East impacting economic conditions [19][21] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies are focused on three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in technology AI led by Deepseek, 2) Economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [26] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector, suggesting that funds will initially favor high-growth sectors before concentrating on main lines as the market matures [26] Policy Tracking - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss documents for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, indicating a focus on economic planning and policy adjustments [17] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital [17]

近期算力、创新药、机器人、半导体、储能等板块轮番表现，热点纷呈。为更好地把握机会，9月以来公募基金累 计调研逾4000次，科技成长板块再度成为"关键先生"。业内人士认为，在经济缓慢提升的过程中，有产业趋势支 撑的科技成长领域仍是市场的重要主线。 公募高频调研4000次 公募排排网数据显示，截至9月28日，9月来共有154家公募机构参与到605家A股上市公司的调研，合计调研次数 高达4275次。 85家公募机构调研表现积极，调研次数均不少于20次。其中，华夏基金9月来调研达107次，是调研最积极的公募 机构，富国基金、博时基金、嘉实基金、鹏华基金等调研次数也较为靠前。 公募基金调研股9月以来也交出了不错的成绩。截至9月28日，被南方基金、平安基金、富国基金等在内的30家公 募机构扎堆调研的沃尔德，9月以来涨幅领跑，上涨113.77%。德明利、精智达、唯特偶等公募9月调研股也涨幅 较大。 | | 9月来股价涨幅前十公募调研股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股简称 | 申万一级行业 | 被调研次数 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 沃尔德 | 机械设备 | 36 | 113.77 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active engagement of public funds in researching technology growth sectors, indicating a strong market focus on these areas amid a slowly improving economy [1][4][7] - As of September 28, public funds conducted a total of 4,275 research sessions on 605 A-share listed companies, with 154 public fund institutions participating [2][6] - Notable public fund institutions such as Huaxia Fund and Fuguo Fund have shown significant research activity, with Huaxia Fund leading with 107 sessions [2][6] Group 2 - The stocks that received the most attention from public funds in September include World, Demingli, and Jingzhida, with World showing a remarkable increase of 113.77% [2][3][6] - The sectors that attracted the most research interest from public funds are machinery equipment and electronics, each exceeding 700 research sessions, followed by power equipment and pharmaceuticals [4][5] - The articles suggest that technology growth remains a key investment focus, with sectors like AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals expected to perform well in the medium term [7]

Market Performance Analysis - The market is experiencing a short-term overheating phase driven by increased trading activity after reaching new highs, with a recommendation for cautious investment strategies [1][4] - Historical data shows that the market typically performs poorly in the days leading up to the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday, while the first phase after the holiday shows a strong median return of 2.27% [1][2] Index and Style Performance - Major indices showed weak performance before the holiday, with only the ChiNext Index recording a positive return of 0.34%, while small-cap indices faced the largest declines [2] - Post-holiday, all major indices experienced positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading in the first phase, followed by a general pullback in the second phase, and a resurgence of small-cap stocks in the third phase [2] - In terms of style indices, only the consumer sector recorded a positive return before the holiday, while all styles saw gains afterward, particularly growth and financial sectors [2] Industrial Profit Trends - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase in August, with cumulative profits turning positive, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [3] - The profit margins in mining, manufacturing, and public utilities showed slight increases compared to the previous month, reflecting a positive trend in industrial profitability [3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment focus should be on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The core factor for investing in the consumer sector is valuation, with current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy support indicating a potential recovery phase, albeit weak [4]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 国庆假期：持币 Or 持股？ 市场思考：国庆假期前后市场表现如何？ 1）2010-2024 年国庆假期前后市场表现具有一定日历效应。以 5 个交易日 为步长，假期前【T-5，T-1】中证全指中位数收益率为-0.81%，胜率仅 40%；假期后第 1 阶段【T+1，T+5】表现最强，中位数收益率达 2.27%，胜 率 80%；第 2 阶段【T+6，T+10】表现最弱，中位数为-1.14%；第 3、4 阶 段【T+11，T+15】、【T+16，T+20】分别上涨 1.44%、1.91%。从累计收益率 视角看，假期后 20 个交易日中位数涨幅为 2.28%，整体胜率也较高。 2）主要宽基指数方面，国庆前表现普遍偏弱，仅创业板指录得正收益（涨 幅中位数为 0.34%，下述收益率或涨跌幅均为中位数），大盘、中盘相对抗 跌，而小盘指数跌幅居前。假期后各宽基指数整体普涨，阶段 1 小盘领涨， 阶段 2 普遍回撤，阶段 3 再度由小盘占优，阶段 4 则转为大盘更强。从累计 表现看，节后 20 个交易日各指数均实现正收益，中证 2000、沪深 300 分别 录得 2.68% ...

Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]