1. 铁元素方面：海外矿山发运环比明显减量，澳巴发运减少，非主 流发运有所增加，前两周到港减量后本期环比明显增加，压港情况有 所加重，船舶卸货排队时间延长，港口库存环比小幅下降，采购远期 现货的钢厂进口矿库存去化。钢联铁水小幅下降，大规模检修尚未出 现，短期铁水预计仍有支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格 表现偏强。废钢供增需稳，基本面矛盾不突出，价格下降后性价比回 升，下方空间有限，预计废钢价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：利润修复叠加环保放松后焦炭供应企稳，短期钢厂 刚需支撑不减，总库存保持去化，但现货成本支撑持续转弱，市场提 降预期渐起，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。国内供应保持低位，焦煤 基本面暂未出现明显弱化，现货回调后下游冬储仍有补库预期，基本 面支撑仍在，盘面近月合约仍受到交割影响，预计价格保持震荡，远 月合约当前价格估值偏低，基本面对价格支撑较强，预计震荡偏强运 行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-25 供给扰动叠加宏观情绪偏暖，板块低位 反弹 钢材基本⾯继续改善，同时12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，叠加 海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境 ...

Core Viewpoints - October export decline is not primarily due to weakening external demand, but rather short-term supply disruptions, which are now dissipating [3][10][65] - The significant drop in exports in October is influenced by a high base effect and a reduction in working days, with a month-on-month decline of 7.1% compared to a seasonal expectation of 3.2% [3][10][65] - Exports to emerging economies, such as ASEAN and Africa, have seen a notable slowdown, while demand from countries like Vietnam and Thailand has shown improvement [3][10][11] Import Analysis - October imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 1%, reflecting supply disruptions, particularly in processing trade, which fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October [4][23][66] - The surge in port freight volumes in late October indicates that supply disruptions are easing, with exports from countries like Vietnam and South Korea showing significant recovery [4][27][66] Future Outlook - With the easing of US-China trade tensions and the recovery of supply chains, November export growth is expected to rebound [5][67] - The differentiation in export performance to developed economies, particularly a recovery in exports to the US, suggests potential for continued growth in exports [5][67] Regular Tracking - In October, both exports and imports saw declines, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing significant drops in export growth [6][68] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments declining, while shipbuilding exports increased [6][42][68] - Import growth for mechanical and electrical products and bulk commodities also decreased, with notable declines in automatic data processing equipment [6][54][68]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.2% and previous value of 8.3%[1] - The month-on-month decline in exports was 7.1%, which is worse than the seasonal average decline of 3.2%[2] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa saw significant drops, with ASEAN exports down 4.7 percentage points to 11% and African exports down 46.1 percentage points to 10.5%[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - October imports increased by 1% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1% and previous value of 7.4%[1] - The month-on-month decline in imports was 6.4 percentage points, reflecting supply disruptions[3] - Processing trade imports fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October, indicating significant supply disturbances[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Economic Factors - The decline in exports is attributed more to short-term supply disruptions rather than weakening external demand[2] - A reduction in working days in October (down 3 days compared to the previous month) exacerbated supply issues, particularly following the National Day holiday[2] - High-frequency export chain production indicators fell to -0.2%, aligning with the overall export decline of -1.1%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook - With easing US-China trade tensions and the expected recovery in supply, November exports are anticipated to rebound[4] - Exports to developed economies are showing a mixed performance, with US exports improving while those to the EU and UK are declining[4] - The ongoing industrialization and urbanization in emerging markets are expected to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods imports from China[4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the gold, copper, and cobalt markets, highlighting their current trends and future outlooks. Gold Market Insights - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted gold prices, which recently surpassed $4,000 per ounce, marking a 50% increase year-to-date [2][10][11] - Factors driving this increase include the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, the U.S. government shutdown delaying economic data releases, and the potential for further rate cuts due to the Dodge 2.0 plan, which may lead to layoffs [2][10] - Long-term support for gold prices comes from global tensions, increased central bank gold purchases, and the declining status of the U.S. dollar, particularly with China's push for transactions in yuan for Australian iron ore [1][2] - Companies like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold are highlighted as undervalued with good performance expectations [1][3] Copper Market Insights - Copper prices have stabilized above $10,000, nearing historical highs, driven by its financial attributes in a low-interest-rate environment [1][4] - The copper industry faces supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure in recent years, frequent mining accidents, and significant production guidance downgrades from companies like Teck Resources [1][4][14] - Strong demand for copper is noted in traditional infrastructure and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a robust long-term outlook for copper prices [4][16] - Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, which are expected to benefit from the supply-demand dynamics [1][4][17] Cobalt Market Insights - The cobalt market has seen price increases due to supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and quota systems that maintain high prices [5] - Companies less affected by DRC supply issues, such as Liyang New Energy and Huayou Cobalt, are recommended for investment [5] Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is influenced by the submission of resource evaluation reports in Jiangxi Province, which will determine domestic supply dynamics [6] Solid-State Battery Developments - Recent breakthroughs in solid-state battery cathode materials, particularly in metallic lithium, are expected to significantly increase usage, benefiting companies like Ganfeng Lithium [8] Silver Market Insights - Silver is expected to show higher elasticity compared to gold in the current economic environment, with recommendations to focus on silver-related stocks [12] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with strong growth potential and profit release capabilities, such as Zijin Mining and Teck Resources, as well as undervalued second-tier stocks like Jiangxi Copper [17]

一、证券市场回顾 二、ETF市场表现1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 9月30日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.73%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中广发上证科创板100增 强策略ETF收益率最高，为3.48%；行业指数ETF中华夏中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF收益率最高，为 4.17%；策略指数ETF中华夏中证500自由现金流ETF收益率最高，为1.44%；风格指数ETF中万家上证科 创板成长ETF收益率最高，为2.53%；主题指数ETF中华富中证稀有金属主题ETF收益率最高，为 4.99%。 2、股票型ETF涨跌幅排行 9月30日股票型ETF涨幅最高的3只ETF及其收益率分别为：华富中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.99%）、广 发中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.38%）、工银瑞信中证稀有金属主题ETF（4.35%）。涨幅前10详情见下 表： | 美别 | 代码 | 基金名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票型 | 561800.SH | 华富中证稀有金属主题ETF | 4.99% | | 股票型 | 159608.SZ | 广发中证稀有金属主题ETF | 4.38% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both supply and demand increases, but the inventory pressure remains high. In the short - term, affected by macro - sentiment fluctuations and the driving force of polysilicon, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon present a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, due to anti - involution and supply reform, the quotes of holders are firm, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, most industrial silicon prices showed a downward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 355 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.06%. The prices of different types of industrial silicon in various regions also decreased to varying degrees [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, etc. remained unchanged during this period, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed small fluctuations [10]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged, while the average price of 107 glue decreased by 0.86% and the average price of silicone oil decreased by 0.38% [10]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%, while the average price of A356 remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 North - South Increase, Continuous Increment in Supply - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: In the week of August 28, the number of silicon - enterprise furnaces in operation increased by 12 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 1,980 tons, and its operating rate increased from 58.48% to 62.57% [39]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, with the monthly output reaching about 110,000 tons. In August, it is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons. Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons [3][68]. 3.3 Improved Transactions, Reduction in Polysilicon Inventory - As of August 28, the total polysilicon inventory decreased to 213,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. Multiple upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments before the end of August, resulting in a significant increase in the trading volume of the polysilicon market and a relatively obvious decline in inventory [3][68]. 3.4 Peak - Season Demand Not Yet Apparent, Weak Organic Silicon Prices - **Supply**: In August, the DMC operating rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 percentage points, and the output was 223,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,300 tons. Last week, due to anti - involution in the industry, some local devices reduced their loads for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in weekly production [97]. - **Demand and Price**: The organic silicon prices weakened. As of August 29, the average DMC price remained unchanged, the average 107 glue price decreased by 0.86%, and the average silicone oil price decreased by 0.38%. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and new orders were weak [103]. 3.5 Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate with Minor Fluctuations - **Operating Rate**: In the week of August 28, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [111]. - **Price**: The aluminum alloy prices rebounded. As of August 29, the average ADC12 price increased by 1.47%, and the average A356 price remained unchanged [114]. 3.6 High Inventory Pressure - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of August 28, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 173,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. As of August 29, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, equivalent to 252,300 tons of spot [124]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The industrial silicon supply - demand balance showed different situations in different months. From January 2024 to July 2025, the supply - demand balance fluctuated, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [125].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wenkang Securities indicates a significant increase in Australian lithium production, with a projected 12% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 2025 to 940,000 tons (equivalent to SC6), and an expected year-on-year increase of 6.4% to 3.888 million tons in FY26 [1][2]. Production Insights - Australian lithium concentrate production is expected to rise by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reaching 940,000 tons (SC6), driven by the ramp-up of the Pilbara P1000 project and increased production at Wogina [1][2]. - The shipment volume from Greenbushes has significantly increased, with Q2 2025 sales of Australian lithium concentrate rising by 16% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The main mining operations are currently stable, with an anticipated production of 3.888 million tons (SC6) in FY26, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.43% [1][2]. Cost Analysis - The report highlights that Australian mining companies have reached a bottleneck in cost reduction, with more nuanced decisions being made regarding cost-cutting strategies in Q2 2025 [3]. - Among high-cost mines, Pilbara and Wogina have seen significant cost reductions, while Marion and Kathleen Valley have experienced increased costs [3]. - Companies are focusing on optimizing existing equipment to improve operational efficiency rather than implementing significant layoffs or reducing equipment [3]. - There is a consensus among companies to lower capital expenditures while ensuring operational flexibility due to cash flow pressures [3]. Financial Performance & Decision-Making - Financial performance in Q2 2025 has not met expectations compared to Q1 2025, leading to more cautious decision-making among companies [4]. - The decline in Australian mineral prices has significantly reduced profits, although companies still maintain some cash flow resilience and have diverse financing channels [4]. - Most Australian mining companies are unable to provide future price guidance, contrasting sharply with the optimistic outlook from 2024 and early 2025 [4]. - The expectation of supply disruptions in China has led to an increase in lithium concentrate prices, providing some relief to Australian mining companies [4][5]. - However, Marion and Kathleen Valley continue to face significant cost pressures amid the transition of mining veins, necessitating close monitoring of their strategic decisions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently in a state where supply is subject to continuous disruptions, and prices are generally strong. With stable fundamentals, there is a possibility of further resonance between macro - level positive factors and the industry. In the short term, before new driving factors emerge, the market will mainly oscillate within the current range [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and limited increase [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to routine maintenance, iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [2] - Outlook: With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production under the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders, which may affect future customs clearance [3] - Demand: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, and the spot market became more cautious [3] - Outlook: With supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term [3] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly [4] - Supply: One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances [4] - Outlook: Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak. In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [4] Steel - Core Logic: As the parade date approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions in steel mills. The output of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but inventory continued to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory also continued to accumulate [9] - Outlook: Although the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel - mill production - restriction policies and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions increased. Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to routine maintenance but remained at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [9] - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, and limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9] Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel decreased as market sentiment improved and the willingness to sell declined. The demand increased as the daily consumption of electric furnaces reached a high level in the same period, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production increased slightly. The inventory in factories decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [10] - Outlook: With decreasing supply and increasing demand, and optimistic market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, coke prices oscillated at a high level following coking coal. In the spot market, prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' overall profit returned to near the break - even point, and production remained stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Although iron - water production decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The overall inventory of coke enterprises was low, but some downstream steel mills had tight inventory [10] - Outlook: With a relatively healthy fundamental situation and the start of the sixth round of price increases, the futures market still has support in the short term. Attention should be paid to possible production - restriction policies during the parade [10] Coking Coal - Core Logic: In the futures market, prices oscillated at a high level due to supply disruptions. In the spot market, prices increased. In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production, and some implemented the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders. Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory [3][12] - Outlook: Due to supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal - mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Glass - Core Logic: The demand in the off - season decreased, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased significantly to the highest level of the year, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly. One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances. Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak [13] - Outlook: In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, with weak actual demand, strong policy expectations, and relatively high raw - material prices, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If prices return to fundamental - based trading, they are expected to oscillate downward [13] Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After a round of negative feedback, the price dropped rapidly in the short term and is now at a discount to the spot price. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and production remains at a high level. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - demand level, while the demand for light soda ash is weak [14] - Outlook: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center is expected to decline to promote capacity reduction [14] Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser [3][16] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as supply pressure increases, the upward price space may be limited [16] Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coking - coal futures prices, market sentiment remained positive, and ferrosilicon prices oscillated upward. The cost support for the spot market is strong due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers' profit improves and the enthusiasm for resuming production increases. The downstream demand for steel - making remains resilient, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased steadily [17] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, the fundamentals may have hidden concerns, and the upward price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a divergence in the performance of various indices in the energy and materials sectors since early 2025, with expectations of complex commodity price trends in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" as the main investment themes, suggesting a sequential allocation in the following order: gold, strategic metals, steel, industrial metals, coal, and oil [1] - Gold remains the preferred investment direction, with attention on companies' production growth and cost optimization prospects [1] - The strategic metals sector should focus on rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and cobalt [1] - The steel sector presents a good opportunity for allocation due to its valuation advantages and profit redistribution expectations [1] - It is recommended to accumulate positions in industrial metals, coal, and crude oil during price dips [1]