（数据来源：WIND资讯） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 | 代码 | 同家 | 场内简称 | 托管人 | 規模(亿) | 近1周均贴 | 近1周济跌 | 今年以来 | 质押率 | 本轮调整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 水率 | 国 | FID (8) | | 最大回覆 | Calmar D | | 511030.SH | 平安中债-中高等级公司债利差因子ETF | 公司债ETF | 十安银行股份有限公司 | 223.53 | -0.06% | -0.119% | 0.84 | 63.00 | -0.1925 | 3.6503 | | 511220.SH | 海富通上证城投债ETF | 城投债ETF | 中国银行股份有限公司 | 245.11 | -0.19% | -0.407% | 1.05 | 0.00 | -0.2907 | 2.1636 | | 511070.SH | 南方上证基准做市公司债ETF | 上证公司侦E ...

沪深京三市成交额高达31770亿元，创历史第二高纪录，AI硬件、稀土、卫星互联网板块集体狂飙，寒 武纪-U单日成交超200亿元股价突破1380元。 8月25日下午3点，"31770亿元"！这个数字被永久定格在A股历史记录中。这是A股历史上第二次单日成 交额突破3万亿元大关，仅次于去年10月8日的3.49万亿元。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3877.13 | 12417.31 | 1602.27 | | +51.37 +1.34% +251.25 +2.07% +2.00 +0.12% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1278.82 | 2753.67 | 6159.37 | | +30.95 +2.48% +71.11 +2.65% +98.55 +1.63% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4459.66 | 6941.67 | 5301.15 | | +81.66 +1.87% +118.83 +1.74% +102.23 +1.97% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证 ...

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三 个方向：1)Deepseek突破与开源引领的科技AI+，2)消费股的估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，3)低估红 利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI产业趋势的进 展，而AI产业趋势的进展又取决于AI应用端和消费端的突破。消费板块投资的核心因子是估值，在当 前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化下复苏周期抬头(哪怕是很弱的斜率)，以宏观叙事而对消费过 分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒生互联网。 天风证券主要观点如下： 市场思考：当前全A估值分布运动情况与历次牛市的对比 估值变异系数可以用来衡量个股的估值分布情况，在行情出现普涨时个股的估值分化程度会减小，换而 言之，在牛市中市场是"投票机"，而在熊市中市场则是"称重机"。在A股动静框架之静态指标中，有市 场配置指标——估值(PE)变异系数来跟踪全市场个股估值的分布情况。本章则采用PB视角切入，并且 针对14年至今的3轮牛市的演绎调整具体展开。 1)动态视角下，2024年9月至今市场低估值个股比例呈现持续下降趋势，表现为全AP/B分布曲线高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that after the market reached new highs, there is an accelerated entry of sidelined funds, emphasizing a cautious and steady approach to investment [1][3]. Investment Themes - Investment themes can be categorized into three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in open-source technology AI+ 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks and gradual recovery in consumer segmentation 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the logic behind the A-share market's volume increase and new highs, noting that weak returns in the real economy may lead private sector asset allocation to shift towards financial assets. Historical patterns show that during previous bull markets, non-bank deposits significantly increased when real estate and economic returns were weak [1][2]. Consumer Sector Insights - The core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation. Given the current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, the consumer recovery cycle is expected to gain momentum. Being overly pessimistic about future consumer performance may be excessively conservative [1][3]. International Context - The report highlights international developments, including the U.S. core CPI growth exceeding expectations, with July's core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, up from a previous 2.9% [2].

Group 1: Market Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming bull market is influenced by weak returns in the real economy, leading private sector investments to shift towards financial assets, particularly during periods of low returns in real estate and the economy [1][10][11] - Historical data shows that during previous major bull markets, such as 2006-2007 and 2013-2015, the proportion of non-bank deposits significantly increased, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards financial markets [11][15] - The report highlights that the current economic environment, characterized by low returns in the real estate market and a decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that the return rates in the real economy remain insufficient [18][14] Group 2: Economic Data Trends - Recent economic data from July shows a decline in growth rates across three major indicators: industrial production, investment, and retail sales, all falling below expectations [2][36] - Industrial production year-on-year growth was reported at 5.7%, below the expected 5.82%, while retail sales growth was at 3.7%, compared to an expected 4.87% [36] - The report notes that the financing pulse continues to recover, with new RMB loans turning negative year-on-year, indicating a tightening in credit conditions [2][36] Group 3: International Economic Context - The report tracks international developments, noting that the U.S. core CPI growth in July exceeded market expectations, which may influence global economic conditions [3][20] - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is also highlighted as a factor that could impact market stability and investor sentiment [3][20] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in technology AI, recovery in consumer stock valuations, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of a cautious approach in the current market environment, particularly in the context of the ongoing bull market and the influx of capital from previously sidelined investors [4][10] - The report also points out that the performance of undervalued dividend stocks is closely tied to the progress of the AI industry trend [4][10]

Core Insights - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as steel, power equipment, electronics, food and beverage, environmental protection, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, machinery, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and public utilities are experiencing a downward trend [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of specific industries such as specialized equipment, shipping ports, railways, airports, packaging, motorcycles, engineering machinery, and various health and energy sectors for investment opportunities in the upcoming weeks [1][9] - The investment strategy focuses on three main directions: breakthroughs in technology AI+, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends, with a cautionary note on market volatility and the need for a steady approach [1] Industry Performance Tracking Upstream Sector - In the basic chemical sector, the weekly settlement price for soda ash is 1336.0 yuan/ton, up 6.54% week-on-week [19] - The price index for hardware tools and abrasives is 125.17 points, down 0.11% week-on-week [20] - The average price of Topcon components is 0.7 yuan/watt, up 4.2% week-on-week [20] Midstream Sector - The new order volume in the defense and military industry increased by 62.14% month-on-month, reaching 2,703,016 tons [20] - The average price of DRAM DDR3 (4Gb) is 1.74 USD, up 3.08% week-on-week [21] - The cumulative investment in power grid construction reached 291.1 billion yuan, up 42.71% month-on-month [20] Downstream Sector - The average price of meat chicken seedlings is 3.13 yuan per chick, up 21.79% week-on-week [1] - The average price of white cardboard is 4010 yuan/ton, down 2.43% week-on-week [1] - The passenger volume of the Suzhou subway is 2.156 million, up 27.57% week-on-week [1]

Domestic Economic Indicators - In July, the core CPI showed zero growth year-on-year, while the PPI remained unchanged, leading to a narrowing of the PPI-CPI gap from -3.7% in June to -3.6% in July [7][8][10] - The July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing the previous month's decline of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by -0.2% month-on-month, improving slightly from -0.4% [7][10] - July exports (in USD) rose by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 4.1%, also surpassing forecasts [17][21] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the "赛点 2.0" third phase, indicating that the market is experiencing overheating and increased volatility, necessitating a cautious approach [46] - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: 1) Technological advancements in AI, 2) Recovery in consumer stock valuations, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [46] - The report suggests that the performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to valuation, with a potential recovery cycle supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts [46]

Domestic Economic Insights - The Political Bureau of the CPC held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need to complete the annual economic and social development goals and prepare for the 15th Five-Year Plan[1] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in service sector activity[14] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits in June showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1%[21] - The inventory of industrial enterprises slightly decreased, with finished goods inventory at 6.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[21] - The profit margin for the mining industry was 16.95%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained low at 4.46%[23] International Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[37] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change interest rates in July, with Chairman Powell indicating no decisions have been made regarding September's rates[37] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued dividends[4] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which may experience increased volatility[4]

Domestic Economic Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and to complete the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1% [12][14] - Industrial profits in June showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of -4.3%, compared to -9.1% previously, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [19][21] - High-frequency indicators in transportation, such as subway passenger volume, showed a rebound, indicating some recovery in activity [26] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the anticipated 110,000 [33] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market [33][34] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not lower interest rates in July, with future decisions dependent on economic data [33] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which is showing signs of overheating [3] - Emphasis is placed on the need for structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and innovation in key industries [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that after the market reaches new highs, there is an acceleration of capital entering the market, leading to a short-term overheating and increased volatility, suggesting a cautious approach [1] Group 2 - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in AI technology; 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks and gradual recovery in consumer segmentation; 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [2] - The core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation, with a recovery cycle emerging due to low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, despite a macro narrative that may be overly pessimistic [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) supports T+0 trading and focuses on the internet platform economy, including major players like Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou, and Baidu, with a high DeepSeek content of 86%, making it a suitable tool for investors to allocate to AI application and "AI + Internet" core assets [2]