2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，周期板块迎来政策与市场共振的利好格局。宏观层面，财政与货币 政策协同发力，超长期特别国债落地、基建专项债加码，叠加"两新"政策聚焦能源电力设备更新，为周 期行业注入政策动力。同时，国内经济复苏态势确立，2025年12月三大PMI指数均重返扩张区间，IMF 上调2026年中国GDP增速至4.5%，顺周期板块迎来基本面与估值双修复机遇，资金对低估值高弹性周 期标的布局意愿升温。 具体到品种与布局，他认为，当前正重点关注资源、海外缺电（电力设备）及化工反内卷三大方向，跟 踪AI产业链紧缺制造环节，对1月市场受益于流动性向好、估值切换的机会持乐观态度。 芮定坤深耕周期领域多年，凭借清晰的投资框架精准把握行业机遇，其管理的民生加银城镇化、周期优 选两只基金同步受益于板块景气，业绩表现亮眼。截至2025年12月31日，民生加银周期优选混合A （011888）过去一年净值增长率达71.86%，同期业绩比较基准收益率为16.61%，同期排名同类前 8%（139/1895）。更长时间看，过去一年、两年、三年民生加银周期优选混合（A类）、民生加银城镇 化灵活配置混合(A类)净值增长率均排名同 ...

此外，亚太市场出现了强劲走势，韩国KOSPI指数更是在周二早盘低开消化关税压力消息后就一路震荡 走高，且迅速创出历史新高，牵引板块以存储为代表的半导体板块走强。如此的资金动向迅速被A股的 动量资金所捕捉，使得A股半导体板块迅速崛起。而港股恒生科技指数也有所策应，如此就进一步强化 了A股动量资金主动出击半导体板块等硬科技主线的胆量。 周二A股市场出现了盘中冲高，但尾盘受阻的态势。其中，上证综指在早盘低开后一度迅速走低，逼近 4100点整数关口。不过，随着半导体板块、AI硬件主线以及银行股等大市值品种反复活跃，股指也随 之节节走高。可惜的是，尾盘主动压盘再度出现，股指受阻回落。看来，短线A股仍难以摆脱主动压盘 的束缚。 动量资金回归硬科技主线 由于国际金价、银价在周一大幅波动，因此，动量资金加大了对资源主线的套现力度。在周二早盘，A 股的资源股大多出现了低开走势，如此就使得动量资金的短线卖压有所增强，主要股指随之震荡回落， 上证综指更是一度逼近了4100点的整数关口。 不过，得益于银行股等低波红利主线在前期持续调整所带来的估值吸引力，此类个股迅速得到长线资金 青睐，逢低买盘有所增强，股价有所上扬，初步稳定了市场参 ...

整体来看，有色金属、创新药、消费电子、非银金融等行业表现亮眼，而传统农牧、资源等领域则面临周期性压力。 随着2025财年业绩预告披露进入高峰期，越来越多的港股上市公司发布最新业绩情况。 数据显示，截至目前，已有315家港股上市公司对外披露2025财年业绩预告，其中53家公司预告了截至2025年12月31日的年度业绩情况。 有色金属"盈利担当" 在贵金属价格持续攀升的背景下，有色金属行业成为港股市场最耀眼的板块。紫金矿业此前发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润为510亿—520亿元，同比增长约59%—62%；扣非净利润475亿—485亿元，同比增长约50%—53%。 紫金黄金国际预计2025年度实现归属于母公司股东净利润约15亿—16亿美元，与上年同期相比将增加约10.2亿—11.2亿美元，同比增加约212%—233%。 赤峰黄金预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30亿—32亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加约12.36亿—14.36亿元，同比增加约70%—81%。 洛阳钼业的业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属净利润为200亿元到208亿元，同比增长47.8%到53 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced a pattern of rising and then sharply declining on Friday morning, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening down 1 point at 3957 and the ChiNext Index down 6 points at 3232 [1] - A total of 1903 stocks rose while 2554 stocks fell, indicating a significant number of declining stocks compared to rising ones [1] - The market saw a peak at 3977 before facing resistance and ultimately closing down 7 points at 3952 for the Shanghai Composite and down 4 points at 3234 for the ChiNext [1] Stock Performance - Among the stocks, 1386 rose, with 77 stocks increasing over 9% and 307 stocks over 3%, while 3906 stocks fell, with 6 stocks decreasing over 9% and 234 stocks over 3% [1] - The data suggests a clear trend of more stocks declining than rising, with the number of declining stocks nearly three times that of rising stocks [1] Market Sentiment - The market's apparent rise in indices does not reflect the performance of most individual stocks, which are struggling [1] - The technology sector led the decline, followed by education, military, pharmaceuticals, insurance, liquor, and banking sectors [1] Technical Analysis - The analysis emphasized the importance of being cautious about short-term risks, particularly for stocks that have already seen significant gains [1] - Investors were advised to monitor the support level in the 3930-3950 range, with the lowest point during the morning session being 3945 [1] - A potential adjustment in the market is anticipated, with expectations that if the support level is broken, it may lead to further declines [1] Future Outlook - Investors are encouraged to wait for new short-term opportunities after the market stabilizes [1] - The commentary suggests that patience is key, particularly for stocks that have not yet adjusted, as they may present buying opportunities after a correction [1]

Group 1 - The market is likely to face a correction after five consecutive days of gains, but the adjustment may not be significant due to some short sellers exiting their positions [1] - Investors holding stocks are advised to consider high sell-low buy strategies, while those without positions should look to enter around the 20-day moving average during the correction [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing divergence due to the failure of the Long March 12 rocket recovery, with some stocks hitting the limit down, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious about the sector's future performance [1] Group 2 - The chip and liquid cooling sectors showed good performance, with expectations of a rebound following a previous correlation with the index, but there is a need to monitor which stocks can unify after initial divergence [2] - Consumer stocks were expected to perform well during the market pullback, but key stocks experienced a high-to-low reversal, raising concerns if they do not recover soon [2] - Other sectors like lithium batteries, chemicals, and resource stocks were influenced by news but did not exhibit strong sector effects, indicating a lack of significant momentum [2]

每经AI快讯，佳鑫国际资源(03858.HK)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.25%，报37.68港元，成交额1279.65万 港元。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures decreasing approximately 0.1% on Monday [1] Company-Specific Movements - Meihua International Medical Technologies Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:MHUA) announced its delisting from Nasdaq, leading to a significant pre-market decline of 32.9%, bringing shares down to $9.41 [1] - SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (NASDAQ:SMX) shares fell 17.2% to $275.00 after a substantial increase of 135% on the previous Friday [3] - Gulf Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:GURE) saw a decline of 16.1% to $6.87 following a 4% drop on Friday [3] - Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. (NASDAQ:WHLR) shares decreased by 16.1% to $5.35 after surging 98% on Friday [3] - Fly-E Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLYE) experienced a 14.4% drop to $7.08 after receiving a delinquency notice from Nasdaq regarding a delayed Form 10-Q [3] - Ecarx Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ECX) shares fell 9.1% to $1.91 after an 8% gain on Friday [3] - Arteris Inc (NASDAQ:AIP) saw a decline of 7.1% to $16.30 in pre-market trading [3] - Veracyte Inc (NASDAQ:VCYT) shares decreased by 5.7% to $42.06 after a 6% decline on Friday [3] - Chagee Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:CHA) shares fell 4.6% to $13.91 in pre-market trading [3] - PureTech Health PLC (NASDAQ:PRTC) declined 4.2% to $17.30 despite announcing a successful end-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA for Deupirfenidone (LYT-100) in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis [3] - PepGen Inc (NASDAQ:PEPG) shares decreased by 3.9% to $5.23 in pre-market trading [3]

Group 1 - The December Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, aiming to stimulate new growth points and improve resource allocation efficiency [2][5][6] - The macro policy framework for 2026 will continue to focus on stability while promoting progress, with a shift towards enhancing quality and effectiveness in economic development [6][7] - The meeting outlines a clear path for industrial policy, prioritizing domestic demand and innovation, which will benefit sectors such as consumer goods, AI, digital economy, and new energy [8][11] Group 2 - The meeting provides initial guidance for A-share investment, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform, which will support market stability and investor confidence [11][12] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to detail specific fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, further activating market dynamics [11][12] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the transition to new productive forces and the recovery of manufacturing and resource sectors, alongside a focus on consumer-driven policies [12]

中信证券研报指出，在流动性改善、地缘扰动、AI泡沫短期无虞三重因素下，亚洲股市更需聚焦基本 面线索变化带来的结构性配置机会。美联储12月降息预期反转缓解亚洲市场宏观压力，而全球GPR指数 高位运行下俄乌冲突等构成阶段性扰动，AI领域现金流支撑与供应链瓶颈使极端泡沫叙事难现。具体 市场核心观点如下。1）A股：需基本面超预期突破，配置上建议聚焦资源/传统制造业定价权重估与企 业出海主线，关注低拥挤品种与红利标的。2）港股：受益内外部催化有望实现戴维斯双击，建议侧重 科技、医疗、资源品等五大方向。3）韩国股市：依托基本面、政策与流动性推动重估，建议重点关注 半导体/AI等行业。4）印度股市：具备补涨潜力，货币政策宽松背景下建议优先配置利率敏感型企业与 消费板块，逆向看多IT服务。5）日本股市：受益治理红利与外资增配，聚焦行业整合、资产重估等四 大方向。6）东南亚股市：呈现复苏态势，马来西亚建议关注AI与数据中心产业链；印尼建议聚焦消费 与新能源汽车；泰国建议首选消费和旅游板块，整体需密切跟踪宏观变量与政策动向。 ...