Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the transition of China's capital market from liquidity recovery to structural pricing, highlighting a year of stabilization and differentiation in 2025 [2] - The macro environment in 2025 saw marginal improvements in global liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's multiple interest rate cuts providing external support for risk assets, while domestic policies continued to stabilize the market [2] - The market structure in 2025 was characterized by a focus on a few sectors with medium to long-term logic, such as AI computing power, self-controllable technologies, and high-end manufacturing, while traditional real estate and some cyclical industries were still in a clearing and bottoming phase [2] Group 2 - In 2026, the Chinese economy is expected to experience a weak recovery with structural upward trends, driven by a new round of technological and industrial cycles [3] - The focus on new technologies, renewable energy, digital economy, and biomedicine is reshaping production relationships and capital return structures, while traditional economic sectors are gradually declining [3] - The economic growth model is shifting from total expansion to quality enhancement, with stable growth policies expected to continue [3] Group 3 - The capital market in 2026 will shift its core variable from liquidity recovery to profitability, with a focus on fundamental performance rather than speculative narratives [4] - High-quality companies, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market and technology manufacturing sectors, are anticipated to reach profitability turning points between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The investment logic will increasingly return to fundamentals, leading to a more rational pricing system [4] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to exhibit three main characteristics: a higher probability of structural bull markets over broad bull markets, a balance between growth and value investments, and continued volatility with an upward shift in market stability [5] - Investors will prioritize company quality and industry dynamics, with high-growth sectors requiring caution regarding valuations, while traditional value assets regain significance [5] Group 5 - The investment strategy for 2026 is termed "Double Horses Running Together," focusing on both growth and stable assets [6] - Growth sectors, particularly those related to AI and new productive forces, are seen as long-term investment themes, while stable assets in finance, resources, and consumption are being revalued as quasi-debt equities [6] - The investment approach will involve a dynamic adjustment of asset allocation, favoring growth in the first half of the year and gradually shifting towards value in the second half [7]

● 本报记者 王辉 随着春节假期临近，近期A股市场成交缩量，部分资金从前期火热的科技成长板块流向消费、蓝筹等防 御性板块。本周，第三方机构进行的最新问卷调查显示，超过六成私募表示将选择重仓或满仓（仓位大 于八成）过节。此外，接受问卷调查的私募机构在春节假期的平均测算仓位达75.68%，进一步透露出 专业投资者对A股后市的积极预期。 仓位高企显信心 约七成私募看好节后A股表现 市场分析人士认为，私募高仓位过节的信心来源于多方面因素。陶山私募投资总监张春兵表示："近期 A股市场的调整，可视为风险事件的影响已显著出清。"他进一步分析，前期受国内题材炒作情绪降 温、金属类大宗商品下挫引发的连锁影响，已经逐步消退，全球市场的下行风险得到较为充分的释放。 星石投资分析，驱动本轮A股上行的核心因素并未出现明显削弱。"虽然今年春节假期偏长，但海外不 确定性因素的影响或已提前反映。"这一观点代表了多数高仓位私募的共识——市场已消化了大部分不 确定性因素。 哑铃组合成主流 在具体配置方向上，私募机构的布局思路呈现出明显的结构化特征。调查显示，41.18%的私募看好低 估值蓝筹与科技成长相结合的"哑铃型"配置策略，这一比例居各类私 ...

从行业分布来看，全球工业与服务业领域有14%的受访企业将中国内地列为前三大投资目的地，比例较 上年有所上升；能源、公用事业与资源行业次之，比例由上年的10%提升至2025年的13%；消费市场比 例持平。 《第29期全球CEO调研报告》于2025年9月至11月开展，覆盖全球95个国家和地区的4454位企业CEO， 其中，中国内地216位，香港地区54位。调研主要围绕宏观发展信心、全球投资布局、创新发展及人工 智能落地应用等核心议题展开探讨，全景呈现了全球格局重塑与科技革命变革演进下企业的发展态势与 战略考量。 （编辑：吴婧 审核：朱紫云 校对：张国刚） 中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 普华永道发布的《第29期全球CEO调研中国报告：创新突围 韧性生长》显示，中国CEO对未来一年全 球经济增长的信心高于全球，且连续三年保持上升态势。具体来看，在信心指数中，中国CEO为67%， 全球平均水平为61%。"虽然当前中国企业家也面临着一定的营收压力，但对未来三年的收入增长更具 信心，这凸显出企业对中国市场长期韧性的认可。"普华永道中国公共事务主管合伙人周星解释。 周星表示，中国企业家长期乐观态度既得益于中国稳定可预期的营商环 ...

2026.02. 04 本文字数：1515，阅读时长大约3分钟 分行业来看，全球工业与服务业领域有14%的受访企业将中国内地列为前三大投资目的地，较上年上升；能源、公用事业与资源行业次之，比例由上年 的10%升至13%；消费市场比例持平。除医疗健康行业较上年略有下降外，其他大部分行业的这一比例均有所提升。 在全球科技竞争加剧与AI（人工智能）变革提速的浪潮中，创新已成为中企应对不确定性的首要议题，18%的内地和22%的香港CEO最关心公司的创新 能力是否足以应对充满不确定性的未来。中企已将创新置于战略核心，并展现出领先全球的执行力度，其创新实践的整体推进力度远超全球平均水平。 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 虽然中国企业家当前及短期面临一定的营收压力，但对未来三年持乐观态度。 普华永道于2月4日发布的《第29期全球CEO调研中国报告：创新突围 韧性生长》（下称"报告"）显示，中国CEO（内地及香港）对于未来一年全球经 济增长的信心领跑全球，连续三年上调对全球经济增长的预期。其中，67%看好未来12个月全球经济增速持续回升，信心水平高于61%的全球平均水 平。 普华永道中国公共事务主管合伙人周星表示，全球企业家对于短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fund quarterly report indicates a shift in investment strategy from emotion-driven to performance-based, emphasizing stability and safety in the market [1] Group 1: Market Activity and Fund Performance - The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 3.11 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of over 10%, indicating active trading despite the approaching Spring Festival [1] - As of December 2025, the net asset value of domestic public funds in China reached 37.71 trillion yuan, nearing the 38 trillion yuan mark, and has set a historical high for nine consecutive months [1] Group 2: Passive vs. Active Funds - By the end of 2025, the market value of stock index funds reached 4.7 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4%, while active equity funds fell to 3.39 trillion yuan, down 5.2% [4] - The gap between passive and active funds widened from 970 billion yuan in Q3 2025 to 1.31 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growing preference for transparent and cost-effective investment tools [4][5] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Trends - In 2025, active equity funds showed a reduction in allocation to TMT sectors, with a notable increase in the communication sector by approximately 1.9 percentage points [7] - Companies in the storage chip sector, such as Baiwei Storage, are expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits increasing by 427.19% to 520.22% year-on-year [8] Group 4: Safety and Stability in Investments - Commodity funds saw a surge of over 40% in scale, with gold-related ETFs increasing by over 100 billion yuan, highlighting a shift towards safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties [10] - The "fixed income plus" products reached a scale of 2.74 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, growing approximately 60% year-on-year, catering to cautious investors seeking stable returns [11]

再看半导体板块，兆易创新跌停，江波龙跌超10%，其实是前期AI炒作热度退潮，加上部分公司业绩预 期没跟上，资金暂时撤离。但帮主得说句实在的，半导体的产业趋势没坏，只是短期波动，就像2023年 那波调整，跌下去之后很快又反弹回来，关键看核心公司的订单和技术突破。 而电网设备为啥能逆势狂飙？这里藏着真需求！AI算力需求爆炸，变压器成了"算力心脏"，北美电荒让 中国电网设备成了香饽饽，加上国内4万亿的电网投资规划，订单都排到后年了，这种有政策+需求双 重支撑的板块，自然能扛住市场下跌。白酒股表现坚挺也不意外，春节消费旺季要来了，加上资金避险 需求，这类刚需品种总能稳住阵脚，这和2019年春节前的行情如出一辙。 今天盘面属实让人揪心，三大指数全跌超2%，4600多只个股绿油油一片，资源股跌停板上堆着几百亿 封单，手里持仓的朋友是不是越看越慌，甚至想割肉离场？ 但别急着emo，盘面里藏着大反差——电网设备10多股涨停，白酒股也扛住了下跌，这到底是为啥？咱 们先把下跌的账算明白。核心就是大宗商品被集体抛售，美联储鹰派预期越来越强，美元走强让贵金 属、油气这些品种失了吸引力，加上前期资源股涨得太猛，获利盘扎堆兑现，湖南白银 ...

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with favorable policies and market conditions for the cyclical sector, driven by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and increased infrastructure special bonds [1] - The domestic economic recovery is confirmed, with all three PMI indices returning to the expansion zone by December 2025, and the IMF raising China's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.5%, presenting opportunities for both fundamental and valuation recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - The cyclical industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, with strong growth momentum in key sectors, such as a forecast of 120GW of new wind power installations in China for 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in transformer exports in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Global liquidity remains accommodative, benefiting the financial attributes of commodities, with expectations of continued easing in 2026, supported by supply-side reforms and structural upgrades in China [2] - The long-term backdrop of Sino-US competition is driving up the valuation system for resource products, with the "self-sufficient" strategy boosting demand for bulk commodities and contributing to long-term price support [2] - The focus is on three main directions: resources, overseas electricity shortages (electric power equipment), and chemical industry anti-involution, with optimism regarding market opportunities benefiting from improved liquidity and valuation shifts in January [2] Group 3 - The fund manager has extensive experience in the cyclical sector, achieving significant performance with the funds managed, including a 71.86% net value growth rate for the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A in the past year, outperforming the benchmark [3] - Over longer periods, the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A and the Minsheng Jianyin Urbanization Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund A have consistently ranked in the top third of their category [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a notable rebound in the semiconductor and AI hardware sectors, but faced selling pressure towards the end of the trading session, indicating a challenging short-term outlook for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and approached the 4100-point mark but rebounded due to the activity in large-cap stocks like banks and semiconductors [1][2]. - Momentum funds increased selling pressure on resource stocks due to significant fluctuations in international gold and silver prices, leading to a decline in major indices [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea showed strong performance, reaching a historical high, which positively influenced the semiconductor sector in A-shares [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector saw a rapid rise as momentum funds shifted focus towards hard technology, driven by strong performance in the Asia-Pacific markets [2][4]. - AI hardware stocks, particularly those represented in the Sci-Tech 50 Index and ChiNext Index, also attracted capital inflows, enhancing market sentiment [2]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - The 4100-point level is emerging as a strong support for the Shanghai Composite Index, with banks showing resilience when the index approached this level [3]. - Despite upward movements, there is a risk of selling pressure from large-cap ETFs, indicating that the market may face resistance if it rises too quickly [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Momentum funds are gradually shifting towards hard technology and physical assets, recognizing the strategic value of commodities amid complex geopolitical dynamics [4]. - The focus should be on structural investment opportunities arising from the return of momentum funds to hard technology and other industrial turning points, rather than short-term index movements [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecasts of Hong Kong-listed companies for the fiscal year 2025, indicating significant growth in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and non-bank financials, while traditional agriculture and resource sectors face cyclical pressures [2][16]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is a standout performer, with Zijin Mining forecasting a net profit of 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 59%-62% [4]. - Zijin Gold International expects a net profit of about 1.5-1.6 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 212%-233% [5]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold anticipates a net profit of 3-3.2 billion yuan, up about 70%-81% year-on-year [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's forecasted net profit is between 20-20.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47.8%-53.71% [7]. - The growth in this sector is attributed to rising metal prices and increased production, with Zijin Gold International's gold production expected to rise to approximately 46.5 tons in 2025 from 38.9 tons in 2024 [7]. Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is also experiencing substantial growth, with Baiaosaitu forecasting a net profit of 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.57% [9]. - Zhaoyan New Drug expects a net profit between 233-349 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 214%-371% [9]. - WuXi AppTec anticipates a net profit of 19.151 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 103% year-on-year, driven by its integrated CRDMO business model and successful asset sales [10]. Consumer Electronics and Non-Bank Financials - In the consumer electronics sector, QiuTai Technology expects a comprehensive profit increase of approximately 400%-450%, driven by growth in non-mobile smart visual products [12]. - TCL Electronics forecasts an adjusted net profit of 2.33-2.57 billion HKD, representing a growth of 45%-60% year-on-year [12]. - In the non-bank financial sector, China Taiping anticipates a net profit increase of 215%-225%, attributed to improved net investment performance and new tax policies [13]. - Guolian Minsheng expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities [13]. Traditional Agriculture and Resources - The agriculture sector, represented by Dekang Agriculture, forecasts a profit of 1.3-1.5 billion yuan, a decline from approximately 3.297 billion yuan in the previous year due to falling prices in the pig and chicken markets [14]. - In the resources sector, CITIC Resources expects a net profit of 170-230 million HKD, a decrease of 60%-70% year-on-year, primarily due to falling oil prices and rising raw material costs [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].