来源：南方基金 红利策略大家都不陌生，凭借稳定股息、波动较低的特质，是资产组合里靠谱的 "压舱石"。 但2025年A股走出稳健慢牛、上证指数刷出阶段新高，对比市场的整体热度，红利的表现却显得相对沉默，似乎没有完全 跟上市场的上扬步伐。更有南粉心痛不已：我的红利基金为啥买后一直不涨？这个赛道我是不是选错了？ 数据来源：wind，20250101-20251231 今天我们就来深入探讨下这个问题：在市场不断攀登新高的环境里，红利策略的"压舱石"角色，是否发生了变化？2026年 红利板块的投资机会又如何看呢？ 【2025年红利为何表现平淡？】 咱们先看一份长期成绩单。过去十多年，主要红利指数的年化收益率大多在10%到15%之间（含股息），这个表现是相当 扎实的。 | 年份 | 上证红利 | | 中证红利 标普红利机会 | 红利低波 | 红利低波100 | 300红利低波 | 东证红利低波 | 红利低波50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2014 | 58.97 | 57.59 | 60.97 | 57.78 | 73.21 | ...

□ 当前，低波红利资产展现出较强的抗风险优势。相关指数及产品的市场配置需求有望显著上升：中长 期资金将更多选择相关指数产品进行稳健投资；金融机构等机构投资者将其作为优化配置的主要选择； 普通投资者多元化需求有望上升 中证红利低波动指数与中证红利低波动100指数行业分布（Wind一级行业） 数据来源：Wind数据库，中证金融研究院整理 □ 低波红利指数在行业结构、市场风格切换、基金规模分化和指数编制等方面还存在一些不足，可能影 响其稳定性和吸引力：股息率的可持续性和未来表现面临考验；对应基金产品分化，首发效应与马太效 应显著；指数编制依据的历史数据较短，滞后于市场趋势 □ 陶 然 李坤昊 武佳薇 □ 为推动低波红利指数的健康发展，建议优化市场环境，充分发挥低波红利指数在资产配置和引导中长 期资本入市中的重要作用：鼓励相关机构积极创设和投资低波红利指数及产品；加大投资者宣教和预期 引导；优化低波红利指数编制；提升上市公司质量和稳健经营能力，引导其持续分红 过去三年，相关产品投资规模显著增加。Wind数据显示，2024年投资于主要低波红利指数的被动指数 型基金规模为470.91亿元，比2022年的21.79亿元增长 ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower on July 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding, while Hong Kong stocks experienced fluctuations, particularly in high-dividend sectors such as steel, petrochemicals, and coal [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520660) reached a new high of 1.142 billion yuan as of July 29, with continuous net inflows over the past three days [1] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (515450) achieved a record high of 13.259 billion yuan, with a total net inflow of 3.019 billion yuan over the past 16 days [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities noted that adjustments to the long-term assessment of insurance funds by the Ministry of Finance will encourage insurance capital to increase equity asset allocation, benefiting bank stocks due to their stable dividends and low valuations [2] - Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) indicated that despite recent pullbacks in the banking sector, long-term funds like insurance still face asset scarcity, making high-quality retail banks attractive defensive assets [2] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (515450) closely tracks the S&P China A-Share Large Cap Low Volatility Dividend Index, which measures the performance of the 50 least volatile high-dividend large-cap stocks in the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520660) tracks the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, reflecting the performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [3] - The Cash Flow ETF (159232) tracks the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 100 companies with high free cash flow rates to represent the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market has been experiencing continuous fluctuations this year, with the Southern Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF (515450) gaining popularity due to its steady performance in a volatile environment, surpassing a scale of 10 billion yuan as of June 30 [1][3] - The Southern Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF closely tracks the S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index, which selects 50 high dividend yield and low volatility large-cap stocks from the A-share market, constructed using a dividend yield weighting method [3] - As of June 27, 2025, the index's dividend yield reached 5.45%, significantly outperforming the yield of 10-year government bonds, highlighting its high allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Group 2 - The index is designed to prioritize low-volatility stocks among high-dividend stocks, providing strong downside protection during market fluctuations and effectively reducing market risk for investors [3] - The index is diversified across multiple sectors, including banking, utilities, and transportation, which mitigates single-industry risk and enhances overall stability [3] - Recent policies, such as the new "National Nine Articles," have strengthened dividend regulation for listed companies, increasing the attractiveness of dividend assets [3] Group 3 - The Southern Fund Index team has a diverse background in mathematics, computer science, and financial engineering, possessing extensive experience in index product development, quantitative research, and fund management, leading the industry in tracking error control [4] - As of March 31, 2025, the Southern Fund's stock ETFs have ranked first in tracking accuracy among peers over the past decade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the increasing popularity of dividend assets in the current low-interest-rate environment, driven by the recent monetary policy adjustments and regulatory changes that enhance cash dividend practices among listed companies [2][3][12]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - In May 2025, the central bank unexpectedly implemented a "double reduction" policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, releasing over one trillion yuan in liquidity [2]. - The ten-year government bond yield fell to a historical low of 1.64%, contributing to a capital market "asset shortage" [2]. - The dividend yield of the S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index surpassed 6%, nearing a ten-year high, making dividend ETFs attractive to institutional and individual investors [2][3]. Group 2: Performance of Dividend Assets - As of June 9, 2025, the net asset value of the Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF (code: 515450) exceeded 9.2 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 300% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index had a dividend yield of 5.47% as of June 9, 2025, with a risk premium of 3.82% over the ten-year government bond yield [5]. - The index demonstrated strong performance from 2021 to 2024, with annual returns consistently outperforming the CSI 300 Index by over 10 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Investment Tools and Strategies - The Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF aims to minimize tracking deviation and error while focusing on high-dividend, low-volatility large-cap stocks [4]. - The introduction of the Free Cash Flow Index addresses the limitations of dividend-focused indices by considering both dividends and share buybacks as measures of shareholder returns [9]. - The Free Cash Flow Index has shown a cumulative increase of 595.68% since its inception on December 31, 2013, with an annualized return of 19.06% as of June 9, 2025 [9]. Group 4: Fund Management and Future Outlook - The Southern Fund's passive index funds are managed with precision, achieving an industry-leading tracking error of only 0.38% in 2024 [11]. - The recent approval of the Southern Free Cash Flow ETF (code: 159232) on April 23, 2025, reflects growing interest in cash flow-based investment strategies [10]. - The combination of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF and the Cash Flow ETF is positioned as a strategic choice for investors navigating through economic cycles, serving as a "safe haven" in volatile markets [12].