作者：圈儿姑娘 红利基金不仅规模扩张，分红行为也备受关注。1月7日，华泰柏瑞、中欧旗下两只红利指数基金同步宣布2026年首次分红，进一步强化其"稳定现金流"标 签。 业内人士指出，在无风险利率下行、险资等中长期资金寻求久期匹配资产的背景下，红利资产的吸引力持续提升。华安基金表示，上市公司分红力度加 大，叠加港股红利估值优势，2026年红利板块——尤其是港股红利——有望继续获得增量资金青睐。 上银基金亦认为，追求低波动、稳收益的资金仍将把红利作为核心底仓。红利策略，正从阶段性热点演变为长期配置主线。 近年来，红利策略持续升温，2025年公募新发65只红利基金，募资超300亿元；截至2026年初，全市场红利基金总规模已突破3100亿元。在低利率与中长 期资金入市背景下，高股息、低波动的红利资产正成为机构与个人投资者的核心配置选择。 红利赛道加速扩容，产品策略日益多元 2025年红利基金发行明显提速：下半年新成立39只，远超上半年的26只。产品形态也从传统红利指数向"红利+低波""红利+央企"等细分策略延伸。仅2024 年和2025年，新成立的红利ETF及联接基金就分别达35只和30只，远超2022年以前年均个位数 ...

1月7日，银华基金发布公告称，银华标普港股通低波红利交易型开放式指数证券投资基金将于1月12日 发售。 近年来，红利基金赛道不断升温，产品数量与管理规模双双扩容。在刚刚过去的2025年，公募机构加码 布局红利基金，全年新成立65只红利基金，合计募集规模突破300亿元，其中，有7只红利基金募集规模 在10亿元以上。从发行节奏来看，2025年公募机构对红利基金的布局呈现提速态势：相对于上半年新成 立26只产品，下半年新成立产品39只，体现出公募机构对红利策略的青睐。 作为以稳定分红为重要特征的产品，红利基金的积极分红行为受到投资者关注。1月7日，华泰柏瑞中证 红利低波ETF联接、中欧中证红利低波动100指数发起两只基金宣布进行2026年度第一次分红。从分红 方案来看，华泰柏瑞中证红利低波ETF联接A份额、C份额、I份额和Y份额，均按每10份份额分红0.05 元；中欧中证红利低波动100指数发起A份额和C份额，每10份份额分别分红0.031元、0.029元。 在受访业内人士看来，在中长期资金入市、无风险收益率走低等背景下，红利资产凭借高股息、分红稳 定等优势，已成为资产配置中不可或缺的重要标的。 展望2026年，上 ...

来源：南方基金 红利策略大家都不陌生，凭借稳定股息、波动较低的特质，是资产组合里靠谱的 "压舱石"。 但2025年A股走出稳健慢牛、上证指数刷出阶段新高，对比市场的整体热度，红利的表现却显得相对沉默，似乎没有完全 跟上市场的上扬步伐。更有南粉心痛不已：我的红利基金为啥买后一直不涨？这个赛道我是不是选错了？ 数据来源：wind，20250101-20251231 今天我们就来深入探讨下这个问题：在市场不断攀登新高的环境里，红利策略的"压舱石"角色，是否发生了变化？2026年 红利板块的投资机会又如何看呢？ 【2025年红利为何表现平淡？】 咱们先看一份长期成绩单。过去十多年，主要红利指数的年化收益率大多在10%到15%之间（含股息），这个表现是相当 扎实的。 | 年份 | 上证红利 | | 中证红利 标普红利机会 | 红利低波 | 红利低波100 | 300红利低波 | 东证红利低波 | 红利低波50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2014 | 58.97 | 57.59 | 60.97 | 57.78 | 73.21 | ...

Core Insights - The popularity of dividend strategy funds has surged, with significant capital inflow, particularly into low-volatility dividend ETFs, which attracted nearly 4.6 billion yuan since Q4, bringing their total scale to over 25 billion yuan [1] - The low interest rate environment makes a 5% dividend yield particularly attractive, leading to increased investment without a full understanding of suitability [1] - Dividend funds are not guaranteed profit-making instruments; they have specific target audiences and scenarios, and blind following can lead to missed opportunities [1] Fund Characteristics - Dividend strategy funds focus on stocks of companies with high dividends and stable earnings, primarily in sectors like consumer goods, finance, and utilities [3] - These funds are designed to be resilient in bear markets and can perform well in bull markets, as evidenced by positive returns during market adjustments in 2022 [3] Investment Suitability - The core value of dividend funds lies in long-term stability and cash flow, making them suitable for low-risk investors seeking steady returns, such as those nearing retirement [5] - They can also balance risk for investors with significant growth stock exposure, as they have low correlation with growth styles [5] - Long-term investors benefit from the compounding effect of reinvested dividends, with historical data showing substantial growth over extended holding periods [5] Cautionary Notes - Not all investors are suitable for dividend funds; short-term speculators may find them underperforming in fast-moving markets [6] - Conservative investors who cannot tolerate any volatility may panic and sell at a loss during downturns, misunderstanding the nature of equity products [6] - Blindly chasing high dividend yields without understanding the underlying company risks can lead to poor investment choices [6] Best Practices - Investors should prioritize larger, more liquid funds to avoid price discrepancies during trading [6] - Dividend funds should be part of a diversified portfolio rather than the sole investment, ideally combined with broad market indices and bond funds for balanced risk [6] - Long-term holding and reinvestment of dividends are crucial for maximizing returns, especially in stable market conditions [7]

Core Insights - The investment strategy of dividend investing is regaining prominence as a stable investment approach in 2025, contrasting with previous years focused on growth and resilience [1] - Dividend funds are highlighted as a key investment tool for 2025, offering steady returns and enhancing overall yield through dividends [1] Group 1: Dividend Fund Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, public funds have distributed over 220 billion yuan in dividends, with a total of 3,492 funds implementing dividend distributions, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.5% [2] - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund have demonstrated significant dividend capabilities, each surpassing 10 billion yuan in annual dividends [2] - Equity funds are increasingly contributing to the total dividend pool, with their share rising as bond funds' contribution declines, indicating a shift in investor preference [2][3] Group 2: Specific Fund Highlights - The top five funds in terms of dividend payouts in 2025 are all ETFs, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF leading at 8.39 billion yuan [3] - Funds with a high frequency of dividends, particularly those focused on dividend strategies, have shown strong performance, with some funds achieving over 10 distributions in 2025 [3] - The highest-performing dividend fund in 2025 is E Fund Kexiang, with a return of 66.37%, significantly outperforming others in the same category [3] Group 3: Fee Structure and Growth - Dividend funds are characterized by lower management and custody fees compared to actively managed equity funds, making them more attractive in a low-fee environment [4] - As of mid-2025, the asset management scale of dividend funds reached approximately 240 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase driven by low fees and improved dividend mechanisms [5] - The growth of dividend funds is attributed to a combination of low-fee environments, enhanced dividend mechanisms, and rising demand for stable returns amid market uncertainties [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that dividend funds will continue to be a favored asset class due to ongoing policy support for dividend distributions from both funds and listed companies [6] - Key areas of focus for 2026 include traditional industry leaders with stable earnings and clear dividend policies, as well as emerging dividend stocks with strong payout intentions [7] - The long-term value of Hong Kong dividend assets is also highlighted, particularly for investors seeking cash flow returns in a low-interest-rate environment [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a disparity between perceived market performance and actual investor returns, indicating that many investors are experiencing negative returns despite a general market uptrend [1] - The trading data shows that the peak trading volume occurred in the third quarter, reaching 138 trillion yuan, which is close to the total of 160 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, suggesting that significant capital entered the market during high heat periods [1] - The consumer sector has shown negative growth throughout the year, emphasizing the harsh reality that following market trends often leads to losses for investors [1] Group 2 - A shift from "bull-bear thinking" to "rhythm thinking" is necessary, as the market is characterized by rapid rotation of hot stocks and volatile trading patterns [2] - The proposed strategy of "dividends as a shield, technology as a spear" has been validated, indicating that while holding dividend funds is stable, it lacks sufficient elasticity compared to technology stocks, which are more volatile [3] - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) has demonstrated unique advantages, with a dividend yield of 3.88% providing downside protection and a return on equity (ROE) of 23.55% offering upside potential [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the rotation between dividends and technology will remain a key market theme, with the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF recommended as a core holding for balancing defensive and offensive strategies [5] - The current market has entered a phase of differentiation, making broad market rallies unlikely, thus necessitating more refined allocation strategies [5] - In this structural market, selecting the right tools is more important than timing, and balanced allocation is more prudent than taking excessive risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a phase characterized by "slowing slope and mean reversion," making low-volatility dividend funds a noteworthy foundational choice for investors [1][3]. Market Analysis - Near the 4000-point mark, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of slowing slope and high-level fluctuations rather than rapid increases [3]. - The total market capitalization at 4000 points exceeds 100 trillion yuan, doubling from approximately 50-60 trillion yuan a decade ago, indicating a need for greater trading volume to support price increases [3]. - The investor structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional holdings now accounting for about 50% of the A-share market, compared to a 90% retail penetration a decade ago [3]. Investment Strategy - The core of dividend investment lies in selecting stocks with high dividend yields, typically above 4% [7]. - The selection logic for low-volatility indices differs from regular dividend indices, employing a dual screening process to identify stocks with both high dividends and low volatility [12]. - The principle of "buying low is better than chasing high" is crucial for enhancing the investment experience in dividend indices, advising against purchases when deviation rates are too high [15]. Quantitative Evidence - Historical data shows that in the fourth quarter, dividend low-volatility styles tend to outperform growth styles, with a less than 25% chance of the top-performing style in Q3 continuing to lead in Q4 [4]. - The price ratio between technology and dividend indices reached a ten-year extreme in October, indicating a potential mean reversion as funds shift towards dividend stocks [4]. - A quantitative analysis from 2010 to present indicates that sectors with over 20% holdings by public funds are likely to underperform in the following six months, suggesting a potential shift of funds towards low-volatility dividend strategies [5]. Fund Characteristics - Dividend funds can be categorized into three types: bond-like dividends, cyclical dividends, and consumer dividends, with specific strategies for rotation among these categories [9]. - The average dividend yield of the 中证800红利低波动指数 is 4.48%, with a three-year average yield of 5.39%, significantly higher than the 中证800 index [18]. Future Outlook - Short-term (now to February 2026): The mean reversion logic suggests that low-volatility dividend strategies are worth attention due to high valuations in the technology sector [22]. - Mid-term: New regulations on public fund performance benchmarks may lead to increased allocations towards bond-like dividend sectors [23]. - Long-term: Policies requiring state-owned insurance companies to allocate a portion of new premiums to A-shares will likely favor low-volatility dividend strategies, providing a supportive funding environment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the growth sector has led to increased interest in "low volatility + high dividend" assets, resulting in a significant rebound in the fundraising of dividend funds and a surge in new product launches by public funds in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Fundraising and New Products - As of November 27, 49 dividend funds have been reported in the second half of the year, a substantial increase from 37 in the first half [2][4]. - In November alone, seven new dividend-themed funds were established, with two exceeding 1 billion yuan and five surpassing 500 million yuan in size [2][3]. - The total size of the 35 new dividend funds established in the second half reached 17.685 billion yuan, compared to only 5.565 billion yuan for the 26 funds launched in the first half [2][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The surge in fundraising for dividend funds is attributed to the low volatility characteristics that meet the defensive needs of certain investors, especially in the context of a potential value reassessment of dividend assets [2][5]. - The fourth quarter is traditionally seen as a favorable time for investing in dividend themes, with expectations for high-dividend companies increasing as the annual report disclosure period approaches [5][6]. - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which offers attractive dividend yields [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - The valuation of dividend assets remains low, indicating significant long-term upside potential [6]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy encourages listed companies to distribute dividends, reinforcing mainstream capital's preference for dividend strategies [6]. - Despite uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, the net dividend yield of Hong Kong dividend stocks remains higher than that of A-shares after accounting for dividend taxes [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market style, with a transition towards balanced allocation strategies as funds compete across different sectors, particularly with a notable rebound in cyclical, dividend, and chemical assets [1] - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the scale of dividend funds has increased by 8 billion yuan compared to the end of the third quarter, with 14 new products launched, reflecting a demand for stable value growth in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The probability of achieving positive returns increases with higher dividend yields, suggesting that dividend funds may serve as a key entry point for stable funds into the equity market [1] Group 2 - The current market for dividend investment targets is diverse, with variations in stock selection and factor restrictions significantly impacting the inclusion of constituent stocks [2] - A notable trend is the combination of dividend strategies with low volatility factors, exemplified by the dividend low volatility ETF (159547), which selects stocks based on liquidity, consistent dividends, and moderate payout ratios [2] - The expectation of a recovery in relative returns for dividend styles is linked to the anticipated rebound in PPI due to proactive policies, suggesting that the current period may be an opportunity for accumulating shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and inflow of dividend funds are increasing, reflecting a preference for stable equity assets among investors, with dividend funds expected to serve as a key entry point for conservative capital into the equity market [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Issuance and Inflow - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the scale of dividend funds has increased by 8 billion yuan, with 14 new products established [2]. - As of November 12, there has been a net subscription of 7.05 billion units for ETFs with "dividend" in their names, with the combined scale reaching 106.05 billion yuan, an increase of over 8 billion yuan from the end of the third quarter [3]. Group 2: Investor Preferences - Investors with lower risk tolerance are attracted to dividend strategies that focus on stable cash flow and continuous dividends, which can lower the psychological barrier for participating in the equity market [3]. - The demand for dividend funds is rising as they transition from being a supplementary option for "fixed income+" funds to becoming core assets capable of independently achieving return objectives [4]. Group 3: Institutional Demand - Institutions such as insurance and pension funds find dividend funds appealing due to their ability to match cash flow needs and control risks, as they offer a compounding effect and counter-cyclical attributes [4]. - The recent performance of the dividend sector has been positive, with the CSI Dividend Index rising over 6% as of November 13, benefiting from increased defensive demand amid market volatility [4]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, focusing on sectors with stable price increases, such as coal and solar energy, while also considering dividend assets for hedging against market fluctuations [5].