今天分享的是：2060年世界和中国能源展望报告（英文版） 多情景描绘未来，协调发展是优选路径 报告共计：97页 中国能源转型路径明朗，非化石能源2060年占比将超八成 中国石化集团近期发布的《2060年世界和中国能源展望报告（2025版）》描绘了中国至本世纪中叶的能源发展蓝图。报告指出，在"双碳"目 标引领下，中国能源结构正经历深刻变革，预计非化石能源将在未来能源体系中占据绝对主导地位，能源消费总量在达到峰值后稳步下 降，绿色低碳转型路径清晰。 能源消费即将达峰，结构优化加速进行 报告数据显示，2024年中国一次能源消费总量约为59.7亿吨标准煤，非化石能源消费占比首次超越石油，达到19.7%。展望未来，能源消费 增长将逐步放缓，预计在2035年前后达到约69.4亿吨标准煤的峰值平台期。此后，消费总量将进入下降通道，到2060年回落至约59.5亿吨标 准煤。与此同时，能源结构将持续优化。煤炭消费预计在"十四五"末进入平台期，到2060年将降至5亿吨以下，在一次能源中的占比大幅萎 缩。石油消费则预计在2027年前后达峰，随后稳步下降。天然气作为重要的过渡能源，消费量将在2035-2040年间达到峰值。非化石能源 ...

央视网消息："十四五"规划纲要提出，到2025年年底，非化石能源占能源消费总量比重提高到20%左右。记者15日从全国能源工作会议上 了解到，如今这一目标将超额完成。 国家能源局局长王宏志称："能源绿色低碳转型步伐加快，非化石能源消费比重将超额完成20%的目标任务。" 今年，我国能源投资增势强劲、向"绿"向"新"。全年能源重点项目预计完成投资3.54万亿元，同比增长11%。其中，核电、陆上风电、分 布式光伏等投资强劲，新型储能、充换电基础设施、氢能等投资快速增长。 "十五五"末新能源发电装机占比将超50% 此外，记者了解到，到"十五五"末，也就是到2030年，我国新能源发电装机比重将超过50%，新能源发电装机成为电力装机主体。 国家能源局主要负责人介绍，到2030年，非化石能源消费比重将达到25%，新能源发电装机比重超过50%，新型能源体系将初步建成。 国家能源局局长王宏志称："实现这些目标，能源行业将经历若干从量变到质变的历史性转变，能源活动实现碳达峰；煤炭消费达峰后进 入平台期，石油消费达到峰值；能源和电力需求增量主要由非化石能源满足。" "十五五"期间，我国将加力建设新型能源基础设施，优化能源资源基地布局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak sales season for new energy vehicles, with domestic sales projected to maintain high growth in 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - New technology developments include the launch of a new generation polymer all-solid-state battery by XINWANDA, achieving an energy density of 400 Wh/kg [1]. - The photovoltaic sector is focused on "anti-involution" as the main investment theme, with future component prices dependent on terminal installation demand and photovoltaic power station yield requirements [1]. - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" stating that annual new installations should not be less than 120 million kW during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The new energy storage market is projected to maintain high demand, with a target of over 180 million kW of new energy storage installations by 2027 [1]. - Hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion are highlighted as future growth points, with policy support expected to accelerate project advancements [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report anticipates high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by increased battery and material demand [1]. Battery Technology - XINWANDA has introduced a new polymer all-solid-state battery with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, indicating advancements in battery technology [1]. Photovoltaic Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of terminal installation demand and yield requirements for photovoltaic components, with a focus on high-power domestic components [1]. Wind Power - The "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" sets ambitious targets for wind power installations, indicating sustained growth in this sector [1]. Energy Storage - The report outlines a target for new energy storage installations to exceed 180 million kW by 2027, reflecting strong demand in the energy storage market [1]. Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The report highlights the strategic importance of hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, with government policies expected to catalyze project developments in these areas [1].

Core Points - China has officially announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target at the UN Climate Change Summit, covering all greenhouse gases across the entire economy [1] - This marks a new phase in China's response to climate change and aims to contribute positively to the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement [1] Summary by Categories Emission Reduction Goals - By 2035, China's net greenhouse gas emissions are targeted to decrease by 7% to 10% from peak levels, with aspirations to exceed these goals [1] - The new NDC represents a historic shift from relative reduction targets to absolute reduction targets [1] Energy Consumption and Production - Non-fossil energy consumption is expected to account for over 30% of total energy consumption [1] - Wind and solar power generation capacity is projected to reach over six times the capacity of 2020, aiming for 360 million kilowatts [1] Forest and Vehicle Initiatives - Forest stock is targeted to exceed 24 billion cubic meters [1] - New energy vehicles are expected to become the mainstream of new vehicle sales [1] Market and Policy Developments - The national carbon trading market will cover major high-emission industries [1] - A climate-resilient society is aimed to be fundamentally established [1] Comprehensive Action Plan - The new NDC systematically constructs a multi-dimensional action program that includes energy and industrial transformation, as well as policy tool innovation [1]

Core Points - China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aims for a 7%-10% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to peak levels [1] - Non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to exceed 30% of total energy consumption [1] - Wind and solar power generation capacity is expected to reach over six times the 2020 levels, aiming for 360 million kilowatts [1] - Forest stock volume is projected to exceed 24 billion cubic meters [1] - New energy vehicles are set to become the mainstream of new vehicle sales [1] - The national carbon trading market will cover major high-emission industries [1] - A climate-resilient society is aimed to be fundamentally established [1] Industry Implications - The commitment reflects China's efforts to align with the Paris Agreement, indicating a significant shift towards sustainable energy practices [1] - Achieving these targets will require substantial domestic efforts and a favorable international environment [1] - The emphasis on renewable energy and carbon trading suggests potential growth opportunities in the clean energy sector and related industries [1]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration of China has set a target for non-fossil energy consumption to reach 20% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with 19.8% achieved last year and expectations to exceed this target this year [1] - Carbon peak and carbon neutrality are emphasized as China's commitments to the international community, with energy being the main battlefield for achieving these goals [1] - Over the past four years, 84% of new power generation capacity added in China has been from non-fossil energy sources, with non-fossil energy capacity reaching 2.23 billion kilowatts, accounting for 60.8% of total power generation capacity as of July this year [1] - Nearly 60% of the new power generation in the past four years has come from non-fossil sources, with projections indicating that non-fossil energy generation will reach 1.5 times that of 2020 by 2024 [1] - The share of electricity in terminal energy consumption has reached around 30%, significantly higher than the global average, as China promotes clean and low-carbon energy use in key sectors [1] - 95% of coal-fired power units have achieved ultra-low emissions through clean and efficient utilization of coal [1] Future Plans - The next steps involve anchoring the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, accelerating the construction of a new energy system, and implementing more robust measures to promote energy transition [2] - There is a strong emphasis on renewable energy substitution, aiming for non-fossil energy to account for approximately 25% of energy consumption by 2030, thereby supporting the achievement of the dual carbon goals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the national energy supply is sufficient in the first quarter, with a continuous optimization of the consumption structure, indicating a positive trend in energy production and consumption [2]. Group 1: Energy Production - In the first quarter, the output of industrial raw coal reached 1.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [2]. - The output of industrial crude oil was 54.09 million tons, growing by 1.1% year-on-year [2]. - The output of industrial natural gas reached 66 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [2]. - The total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2]. Group 2: Energy Consumption Structure - The installed capacity of wind and solar power generation increased by 17.2% and 43.4% year-on-year, respectively, surpassing thermal power for the first time [2]. - The installed capacity of hydropower and nuclear power reached 438 million and 61 million kilowatts, with year-on-year growth of 3.3% and 6.9% respectively [2]. - The proportion of non-fossil energy generation capacity increased by 4.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - Preliminary estimates indicate that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter [2]. Group 3: Electricity Consumption Trends - The total electricity consumption in society was 2.38 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [2]. - In March, the total electricity consumption increased by 4.8% year-on-year [2]. - Natural gas consumption continued to grow, with a rapid increase in gas used for power generation [2]. - Overall coal demand remained weak due to factors such as a warm winter and significant output from renewable energy sources [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Electricity consumption is expected to continue growing this year, with a rapid increase in national electricity load anticipated during the summer peak [3]. - The National Energy Administration indicates that while overall electricity supply is expected to be secure, there may be localized supply tightness during peak periods [3].