Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sales of new homes in first-tier cities weakened significantly. On Friday, Beijing introduced new property market policies, and it is expected that other first-tier cities will also introduce a new round of property market policies successively. The price of rebar fluctuated, the price of cement continued to decline, and the focus was on key industries to combat excessive competition. The travel intensity remained strong, and the SCFI continued to decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in First-Tier Cities Weakened Significantly - This week (August 1 - August 7), the transaction volume of new homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year decline slightly narrowed. Specifically, the transaction area of new homes in first-tier cities was significantly weaker than that of the same period last year, while that in second, third, and fourth-tier cities was slightly lower than last year. The transaction area of 20 key cities monitored by Wind decreased by 27.18% week-on-week and 14.49% year-on-year [7]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year performance varied. Among key cities, on a week-on-week basis, the transaction area of each city decreased significantly compared to the previous period. On a year-on-year basis, except for Shanghai (3.83%) and Shenzhen (3.88%), the transaction volume in other cities was weaker than last year [26]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range, with the cost side supported by strict inspections of coking coal overproduction, but the demand side remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price of glass decreased as the sentiment of combating excessive competition subsided, and the price lacked upward momentum due to weak demand. The cement price index continued to decline, affected by weather and demand, and local price cuts could not offset the inventory pressure. The price of asphalt decreased, possibly affected by fluctuations in the cost of crude oil [2]. 3. Production: The Utilization Rates of Production Capacity Showed Differentiated Performance - This week, the utilization rates of production capacity showed differentiated performance. The utilization rates of coking enterprises and steel mills' blast furnaces increased, while those of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, and PTA decreased significantly. The utilization rate of automobile tire production remained basically flat [2]. 4. Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - In terms of consumption, automobile sales and domestic flights were stronger than the seasonal average, subway ridership was in line with the seasonal average, and movie box office was lower than the seasonal average [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI and BDI Declined - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined, while the CRB Spot Index remained basically flat. The lack of further growth momentum in transportation demand led to continued adjustments in market freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork Prices Declined, Vegetable Prices Rose Significantly, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork prices declined, vegetable prices rose significantly, and oil prices declined. The sharp increase in vegetable prices was mainly due to floods caused by heavy rainfall in the north, which destroyed vegetable fields and reduced the supply of vegetables. The decrease in crude oil prices was mainly due to the expected decline in global trade demand, increased supply surplus, and the subsidence of geopolitical risk premiums [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After a significant increase, the domestic commodity atmosphere turned cold on the night of last Friday, and PTA futures followed the correction. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was relatively light, and the spot basis was weak. In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. It is predicted that the PTA price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. With the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The fundamentals showed a post - increase correction on the night of last Friday. The spot basis was weak, the factory inventory increased slightly, the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the main position was net long but decreasing. In August, some plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. The price is expected to follow the cost side and the basis will fluctuate [5]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated weakly on Monday, and the basis strengthened. The supply side has some unexpected situations, and the supply - demand is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors**: The supply side of ethylene glycol has many unexpected situations, such as device outages in Saudi Arabia, load reduction of a large - scale producer in Zhejiang, and planned maintenance of a cracking device in Lianyungang. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - export period and the domestic off - season [7]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance of the market rebound needs to be monitored [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes over time [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory trends [10]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester products, and their corresponding futures and basis on July 25 and July 28, 2025, as well as the processing fees and profits of PTA and MEG [11]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025, which help to comprehensively understand the market situation [13][16][18]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with grapes, citrus, and bananas decreasing by 3.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.08 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with tomatoes, winter melons, and lotus roots decreasing by 6.1%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with large hairtail, crucian carp, and grass carp dropping by 1.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice remained unchanged and flour and peanut oil increased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.63 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef increased by 0.2% and lamb remained stable [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% and eggs increasing by 2.0% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly declined, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices predominantly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4% and compound fertilizers increasing by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.8% and polypropylene, methanol, and soda ash decreasing by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 934 yuan and 755 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3401 yuan, 3538 yuan, and 3584 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.12 yuan per kilogram, rising by 0.7%, with tomatoes, lettuce, and loofah increasing by 10.7%, 5.6%, and 5.3% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with silver carp, common carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork was 20.84 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.8%, while beef also rose by 0.8%, and lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight declines in rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and rice by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-feathered chickens decreasing by 1.5% and 0.4% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly decreased, with bananas, grapes, and citrus fruits falling by 2.8%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly decreased, with copper, aluminum, and zinc falling by 2.1%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with soda ash, methanol, and polypropylene decreasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, while sulfur increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea unchanged from the previous week and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight fluctuations, with natural rubber increasing by 0.5% and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.3% [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 930 yuan and 753 yuan per ton, rising by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while second-grade smokeless block coal decreased by 0.1% at 1130 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with high-speed wire, hot-rolled strip steel, and rebar priced at 3569 yuan, 3519 yuan, and 3382 yuan per ton, rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.4% from the previous week, with the average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables at 4.17 yuan per kilogram, down 1.7%. Notable declines include lettuce, cucumber, and green beans, which fell by 5.6%, 5.0%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with white strip chicken and eggs dropping by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Meat wholesale prices overall declined, with pork at 20.71 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3%, and beef down 0.2%, while lamb prices remained stable [1] - The wholesale prices of six types of fruits showed slight fluctuations, with watermelon, banana, citrus, and apple prices decreasing by 3.1%, 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively, while grapes increased by 3.7% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced a slight increase, with grass carp, silver carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Coal prices experienced a slight decline, with thermal coal, coking coal, and No. 2 smokeless block coal priced at 755 yuan, 971 yuan, and 1170 yuan per ton, down by 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.3%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices showed slight volatility, with 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline both decreasing by 0.2%, while 0-octane diesel increased by 0.2% [2] - Steel prices saw a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and ordinary medium plates priced at 3615 yuan, 3861 yuan, and 3806 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices overall increased, with urea rising by 0.3% and the price of compound fertilizers decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly up, with aluminum and copper increasing by 2.4% and 0.7%, while zinc decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 2.5% and 0.5% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.7% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0%, with significant declines in tomatoes, zucchini, and green beans by 9.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly decreased, with pork at 20.77 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4%, while lamb and beef also fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable overall, with some fish types experiencing minor declines and others seeing slight increases [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil down 0.2%, while canola oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with grapes, apples, and pears rising by 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally decreased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene falling by 2.0%, 1.9%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly declined, with aluminum and zinc decreasing by 1.2% and 0.1%, while copper saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight declines, with thermal coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and coking coal priced at 770 yuan, 1177 yuan, and 980 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices slightly retreated, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3462 yuan, 3670 yuan, and 3599 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with slight increases, as the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged while urea rose by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively [2]