这份成绩单背后，藏着一套消费巨头穿越周期的组合拳。它不再迷信单一爆品，而是用"质价比"的基础款 稳住大众，再用沙漠有机奶、功能酸奶等高附加值产品精准狙击细分人群；它也开始告别传统商超依赖， 转而拥抱会员店、直播间和B端茶饮店，在离钱更近的地方抢夺增量。 半年狂推超百款新品、猛攻新渠道、大玩IP联名……蒙牛的这套"新玩法"是应对行业寒冬的解药，还是短 期续命的猛药？透过这份财报，我们或许能窥见整个快消行业在存量市场中，如何用尽浑身解数"求生"的 真实缩影。 虎嗅注： 消费疲软，行业内卷，这几乎是所有消费品公司头顶的乌云。当原奶价格持续低迷，乳业的价格战似乎一 触即发时，巨头蒙牛却交出一份利润逆势增长13.4%的半年报。 8月27日，蒙牛乳业 (2319.HK) 发布2025年度中期业绩公告。面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持续 低迷的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道升级和精益管理三大引擎创新求变，今年上半年实现收入 415.7亿元，经营利润35.4亿元，同比增长13.4%。 公告显示，蒙牛持续推进的精益化管理成效显著， 上半年其经营现金流实现同比增长46.2%，经营 利润率提升1.5个百分点至8.5%。 同时，为 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a need for capacity reduction as a key strategy for alleviating industry distress [2][4][10] - The bottom of the current milk price cycle has been established, with a potential reversal expected within a year, making the second half of this year or the first half of next year critical [10] Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2022, the dairy industry saw an increase of over 1 million dairy cows, resulting in excessive production capacity amid declining consumption [2][4] - The dairy farming sector is projected to incur cumulative income losses of 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with losses from fresh milk powder reaching 20 billion yuan [2] Production Trends - The total production of raw milk in China is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018 [3] - The number of dairy cows in the top 10 producing provinces is estimated to decrease by 6.7% by the end of 2024, with around 12 million dairy cows expected to be eliminated from the industry [3][4] Market Dynamics - Despite the acceleration of capacity reduction and favorable conditions such as rising international milk prices and falling feed costs, the domestic raw milk supply remains ample due to slowing downstream demand [4] - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces was 3.04 yuan/kg as of early July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% [4] Strategic Recommendations - Industry leaders are advised to control the overall increase in dairy cow numbers to no more than 500,000 during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an annual increase capped at 100,000 [5] - Major dairy companies should enhance their self-sourced milk supply through mergers, equity stakes, and long-term management of social farms to stabilize foundational production capacity [4][5] Consumer Trends - There is a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, nutritious dairy products, with a notable increase in demand for B-end (commercial) dairy products, which currently sees 70%-80% of its market share dominated by imported brands [7] - The industry is responding to the evolving nutritional needs of various demographic groups by developing tailored products for different age segments [7][8] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see a significant adjustment in production capacity, with a projected decline exceeding 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [9] - The market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance by the third quarter of 2025, driven by the exit of smaller farms and consumption stimulus policies [9][10]