投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-9 进口大豆宣布拍卖，双粕盘面纷纷下跌 油脂：近期或震荡偏弱运行，关注双报影响 蛋白粕：进口大豆宣布拍卖，双粕盘面纷纷下跌 玉米/淀粉：港存小幅积累，拍卖传闻引起情绪变化 生猪：宏观情绪影响，盘面反弹 天然橡胶：横盘整理，等待驱动 合成橡胶：盘面利多驱动不足 棉花：近月偏强，但上方空间受限 白糖：短期下方支撑明显 纸浆：触及压力位后回落，宽幅震荡格局维持 双胶纸：原料下行，双胶走弱 原木：供应阶段性减量，原木底部存支撑 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：进⼝⼤⾖宣布拍卖，双粕盘⾯纷纷下跌 逻辑：国际方面，美国农业部将在北京时间周三凌晨1点发布供需报告。 彭博分析师调查普遍预期全球和美豆期末库存将上调。美豆依然受中国采 购和南美天气主导。中国对于美豆采购1200万吨的计划将于明年2月底前 完成。最新预测显示，巴西整体降雨接近历史均值，25/26年度大豆丰产 前景不变；阿根廷虽未来两周降雨偏少，但有助于加快播种进度。总体 上，12月供需报告将发布，市场预期悲观，美豆跌破1100美分 ...

我农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 本周，玉米近月 2601 合约领涨，远期合约跟涨。1 月合约减仓，资金向 3 月和 | | | | 5 月合约转移，近月期价领涨、远期跟涨，期价以上涨打破震荡局面，价格恢复上 | | | | 行。近期中储粮哈尔滨库收购价格较高，对黑龙江产区价格直接形成支撑，黑龙 | | | | 江部分产区报价至 2100 元/吨以上。期货上涨，北港报价也有所上调。 山东深 | | | | 加工企业早间剩余车辆维持高位，部分企业继续窄幅 6-20 元/吨。河北、河南深 | | | | 加工企业价格保持稳定。贸易商收购价格保持坚挺，未跟随深加工企业价格频繁 | 震荡上涨 | | | 变动。当前华北玉米基层购销活跃度不强，供需维持动态平衡。 销区市场玉米 | | | | 价格继续窄幅上调。期货盘面继续上行，部分港口现货库存偏少，港口贸易商报 | | | | 价坚挺。饲料企业高价采买意愿不强，销售利润偏低，市场购销活跃度一般。技 | | | | 术上，现货玉米报价延续强势表现，期价结束 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [7] - Pulp: Consolidation [7] - Logs: Oscillation [7] - Edible oils: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Oilseeds and meals: Stronger oscillation [8] - Agricultural products: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soft commodities: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the expectations from the Politburo meeting were not met. The expected domestic supply policies have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections due to expectation deviations [2]. - The Fed's September rate cut expectations have been frustrated again. The US July PPI soared year-on-year to 3.3%, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered around real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, which are driven by "decentralization" and hedging needs [4]. - USDA significantly lowered the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market [8]. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace hot metal production decreased slightly. Steel mills' profitability was high, and they had little incentive to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in northern regions in late August. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. Real estate and infrastructure demand were weak, causing coking coal prices to decline slightly. Coal mine production recovery was slow, and the inventory of clean coal reached the lowest level since March 2024 last week. Downstream coke and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates. Some coal mines had full pre-sales orders, providing short-term support for coal prices. Supply-side factors are supporting the market, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. To break through the previous high, a continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply cuts. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand exports were overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and total demand was unlikely to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half is expected. The profits of the five major steel products were decent, production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased, and steel mill inventories accelerated their accumulation last week. Social inventories increased at a faster pace. There are expectations of production restrictions during the military parade in mid-August, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions during the military parade for at least two weeks, finished steel products are supported by macro and policy factors in the short term. It is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: Glass prices were in a downward channel. New real estate relaxation policies were introduced, but they had little short-term impact on glass demand. There are expectations of glass factory shutdowns during the military parade, but it is unlikely due to high costs. The operating rate has remained stable recently. Market sentiment has been volatile. The inventory of glass downstream and midstream is low, providing room for restocking, but rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is unlikely to rebound significantly. The trading focus is on "anti-competition and stable growth." After the short-term sentiment is released and the futures price adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.08%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%. Funds flowed into the insurance and home appliance sectors and out of the aerospace and defense and communication equipment sectors. The Fed's September rate cut expectations were frustrated again. The implied volatility rebounded, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Chinese government bond rose 1bp, while FR007 and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Market interest rates rebounded, and the Treasury bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The US debt problem may worsen, weakening the US dollar's credit and highlighting gold's de-fiat currency attribute. Geopolitical risks have decreased marginally, but market hedging needs remain due to Trump's tariff policies. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The short-term factors that drove up the gold price have not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short-term fluctuations. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains above 90%, and the expectation of further monetary policy easing within the year has increased, supporting the gold price. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4][7]. Light Industry - **Paper pulp**: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest FOB prices of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and only rigid demand purchases were made, which was bearish for pulp prices. The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [7]. - **Logs**: The average daily shipment volume at log ports last week was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of September and October approached, the willingness of processors to stock up increased. The average daily outbound volume remained at 64,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in July was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and arrivals in August are expected to remain low. The expected arrivals this week were 190,000 cubic meters, a 60% decrease from the previous week. The supply center has shifted downwards, and the supply pressure is not significant. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The spot market price was stable, and the cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is expected to remain stable. With the expected decrease in log arrivals this week, the supply pressure is generally not significant. Processors' willingness to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume remains at 64,000 cubic meters. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory continued to increase, but the end-of-period inventory of 2.1133 million tons was far lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. The production increase was lower than expected but still at a relatively high level. High-frequency data from shipping agencies showed that palm oil export demand has been strong since August, and the expectation of Indonesian biodiesel production at the end of the year is gradually fermenting. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August remains high, and oil mills' operating rates are high. The increase in soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the oversupply pressure. Palm oil inventory may increase, while rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. Double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand is recovering. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce has boosted rapeseed oil prices. With the support of soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and recovering demand, edible oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, after the previous sharp increase, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [7]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: USDA significantly lowered the US soybean planting area, and production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market. The improvement in US soybean export demand expectations and concerns about the hot and dry weather in some agricultural areas in the US Midwest have boosted US soybean prices. Brazilian soybeans have high premiums due to concentrated demand, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, including a 75.8% deposit, have increased import costs and raised concerns about supply shortages. However, Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and the US soybean production outlook is strong, ensuring sufficient supply. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August is large, and oil mills' operating rates are high. Soybean meal inventory is at a high level and may continue to accumulate. With the addition of low-priced Argentine soybean meal, the supply is very abundant. Downstream buyers are worried about future supply disruptions or higher purchase prices, so they are purchasing in advance and restocking on a rolling basis, driving the trading volume of soybean meal by oil mills to a record high. The main trading volume is for forward basis contracts. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. - **Agricultural products (Pigs)**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.19% to 124.04 kg. The average trading weights in different provinces varied, but the overall trend was downward. High temperatures have slowed down pig growth, and slaughterhouses have increased their purchases of low-priced standard pigs to ease the procurement pressure, leading to a decline in the overall procurement weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses across the country last week was 14.45 yuan/kg, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week. The price has been on a downward trend. Due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter of pigs by farmers and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughterhouses have pressured prices during procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses was 32.49%, a 0.31 percentage point increase from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has been oscillating, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the tight supply of large pigs in some areas supported the price of fat pigs, widening the price difference. As the supply of large pigs increased in some regions and demand was weak, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, the increased enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter pigs led to a concentrated release of standard pig supply, causing the price to drop rapidly and widening the price difference again. With the continuous increase in pig supply and the continued restriction of consumption demand by high temperatures, the average weekly price of pigs may decline in the coming week [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on natural rubber production areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping. The profit from rubber tapping in Yunnan has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in Hainan is good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and below expectations. Driven by the futures market, local processing factories have increased their procurement enthusiasm, driving up the raw material purchase price. In Thailand, the cup lump price has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas has been restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in Vietnam is good, and the raw material price has also increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 9.93 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a 0.80 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 0.73 percentage point increase year-on-year. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production cuts of some factories, while the capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of production by some maintenance enterprises and moderate production increases by enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will provide support, but on the other hand, the maintenance plans of large-scale enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the overall utilization rate. For full-steel tires, as more enterprises resume production, the utilization rate will recover, but the overall increase may be limited due to the production recovery progress. The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with a decline in both bonded and general trade warehouse inventories. Due to the continuous low arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies, the overall warehousing rate has further declined compared to the previous period. The decline in the spot price of natural rubber has prompted downstream tire enterprises to replenish their stocks at low prices, significantly increasing the market procurement enthusiasm compared to the previous period and driving up the overall outbound volume at the port. The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has decreased. The natural rubber market still has a pattern of oversupply, but the gap between supply and demand has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall in domestic and foreign main production areas increases in the next period, the expectation of a tight supply of raw materials will drive up rubber prices. The domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. With the concentrated release of positive factors on the supply side and relatively stable demand, the natural rubber price is expected to maintain a relatively strong upward trend in the short term [10]. Chemicals - **PX**: Sanctions risks have supported oil prices, causing oil prices to rise. The PTA load has oscillated, and the polyester load has rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX have slightly weakened, but it is still in short supply in the short term. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and PX prices will fluctuate with oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have fluctuated significantly. Although the PXN spread is strong, the cost support is average. PTA supply is slowly recovering, and the load of downstream polyester factories has started to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation of PTA. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased slightly last week, and future arrivals may be lower than expected. Terminal demand is weak, domestic production is slowly recovering, and imports are oscillating, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, the supply and demand of MEG are expected to be in a balanced state. Short-term cost fluctuations are large, and low inventory supports the MEG futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [10]. - **PR**: Oil prices have risen, and the procurement of polyester bottle chips on the demand side has maintained low-price rigid replenishment, with cautious buying on rallies. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will fluctuate with polyester costs and show a relatively strong upward trend today [11]. - **PF**: The overnight increase in crude oil prices has provided some support, but the lack of positive factors in the supply and demand expectations of the industrial chain has limited the increase in short fiber prices. It is advisable to wait and see [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall supply-demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply and demand pressures and price trends. For example, the pig price is under pressure in the short and long term, the egg price is under pressure in the short and medium term but may ease in the long term, and the price trends of various oils and fats are also affected by multiple factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On June 10, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and other regions were stable with a slight increase. The short - term pig price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure due to large supply. The 07, 09, and 11 contracts of the futures are recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - On June 10, the egg prices in Shandong and Beijing were stable. In the short term, the egg price has some support but is under pressure due to seasonal factors. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [2]. Oils and Fats - On June 9, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. Palm oil's export data improved in May, and the inventory accumulation speed in Malaysia slowed down, but the long - term accumulation trend remains. Soybean oil is affected by policies and fundamental factors, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. Rapeseed oil is affected by factors such as Canada's supply and China - Canada relations. The overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in June and may rebound from the third quarter [4][5][6]. Bean Meal - On June 9, the domestic bean meal futures price rose. In the short term, the price is affected by US soybean weather, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. In the long term, the price is expected to be stable with an upward trend due to cost and weather factors. The M2509 contract is recommended to go long at low levels [8]. Corn - On June 9, the corn prices in some regions were stable with a slight increase. In the short term, the corn price has support due to supply - demand game. In the long term, the price has an upward drive but the upward space is limited. The 07 contract is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range, and the 7 - 9 spread arbitrage is recommended [9]. Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products on June 9, including CBOT soybeans, bean meal, corn, etc., providing a reference for the market situation [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].