1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international crude oil prices, weakening support for vegetable oils. Coupled with profit - taking by funds after the previous sharp rise, the risk of a short - term high - level correction in domestic oils has increased. However, the strong fundamentals of soybean and palm oils remain unchanged, so the correction range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long. Among them, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively stronger, while rapeseed oil will be relatively weaker [1][19]. - In the long - term, after the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of domestic and international oils will gradually ease, leading to a correction in domestic oils. But with the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and positive macro - situation, along with potential positive factors such as Indonesia's production reduction risk and the US biodiesel policy, the general direction of oils is upward. After the correction caused by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, a bullish approach should still be taken [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Short - term: The strong fundamentals of palm oil will last until February, and with the spill - over effect of US biodiesel policies, the correction range of spot and futures prices is limited. After the emotional decline, there is still upward momentum. However, the relatively high inventory levels in Malaysia and China will limit its further upward space. For example, in January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased while exports increased, and the inventory is expected to decline further in February [5]. - Long - term: Starting from March, Malaysian palm oil production may rebound, while consumption demand will weaken, which may lead to a price correction. But considering the positive domestic macro - situation in 2026, low inventory and potential production reduction in Indonesia, and the possibility of implementing the B50 biodiesel plan, the correction range is expected to be limited, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [6]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Similar to palm oil, soybean oil is supported by both domestic and foreign positive factors, and the correction is expected to be limited. Positive factors include strong US soybean demand, potential US biodiesel policies, the early - stage harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the drought in Argentina. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the risk of the US biodiesel policy falling short of expectations will limit its upward space [12]. - Long - term: After the Spring Festival, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of domestic soybean supply - demand will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean oil prices. In the third quarter, soybean oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention on the purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans, the sowing and growth of US new - crop soybeans, and the progress of biodiesel policies [13]. Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Although the current spot supply - demand of domestic rapeseed oil is still tight, after the China - Canada negotiation, there is news that China has increased the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the first batch of Australian rapeseed has been processed. The supply - demand tension is expected to ease marginally, making its fundamentals weaker than those of soybean and palm oils. The price trend will follow the latter two, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US relations [15][16]. - Long - term: In the 25/26 season, global rapeseed production (except in Ukraine) has increased year - on - year, with general demand, showing a clear pattern of looser supply - demand. In China, due to the improvement of China - Canada and China - Australia relations, the supply - demand of rapeseed is expected to continue to ease, and the price of far - month rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [17].

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：偏强震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 豆粕：布交所预计阿根廷大部分农业带将迎来强降雨，未来几天土壤湿度将 有所上升，有利于处于关键生长阶段的大豆和玉米作物。罗交所预测阿根廷 25/26 玉米产量将创下记录达 6100 万吨，大豆将达 4700 万吨。 市场再度有流言传出，称已经开完会决定年前抛储进口大豆，盘面 01-03 合约溢价明显回落 ，不过流言仍未得到证实，暂时无公告发布。 近月合约明显受到政策端的影响，由于后期进口大豆货权过于集中，而抛储 时间表处于晦暗不明的状态，在具体进口大豆抛储时间表公布前，豆粕预估偏强 运行。后续需要关注抛储政策端引导。 油脂：印尼能源部周四公布的数据显示，印尼在 2025 年棕榈油生物柴油的 消费量为 1420 万千升，比上一年增长 7.6%。此前，印尼实施了一项名为 B40 的 40%生物柴油掺混强制令。印度尼西亚是全球最大的棕榈油出口国，计划今年将 生物柴油掺混比例提高到 50%，这 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex trend with different products having different outlooks. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to be weak, while corn is likely to be volatile, and the situation of other products such as rubber, cotton, and sugar also varies [1][6]. - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international supply - demand, weather, policies, and domestic inventory and consumption situations [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Current Situation**: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the expected increase in South American soybean production, high domestic soybean inventory, and changes in palm oil production and exports, domestic oils and fats are expected to have a slow de - stocking process [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the MPOB and USDA supply - demand reports [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Current Situation**: Internationally, the market is awaiting the USDA supply - demand report, with pessimistic expectations. Domestically, short - term import soybean auctions will increase supply pressure, and inventory is high. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, and the expected import of Australian seeds suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather determines the price trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to be weak and volatile. They are expected to seek support at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the supply - demand report [2][6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Current Situation**: The price of domestic corn shows a differentiated trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China is low, and the price is strong. The price in the port area has declined due to the futures callback. The news of reserve auctions has affected market sentiment [6][7]. - **Outlook**: The price will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures price has rebounded, but the short - term supply and demand in the spot market are still loose. The supply will be in surplus until April 2026, and is expected to gradually decrease after May 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". The near - month contracts are likely to be weak, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse spread strategies [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Current Situation**: The market lacks strong driving forces, with weak downstream buying support and a bearish market sentiment. Although overseas supply is increasing seasonally, there is still pressure on raw material prices to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to continue the volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a trending market [10]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The bullish driving force on the disk is insufficient. Although the price of raw material butadiene has rebounded, there is resistance in high - price transactions [11]. - **Outlook**: The disk will maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak but supported by rigid purchases. The commercial inventory is rising seasonally, and the 01 contract is strong recently but faces pressure above [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and the price is likely to be weak. In the short term, the 01 contract has obvious support below [11][13]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to be weak and volatile. In the short term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Last week, the pulp futures rose rapidly, and there were some bullish news. However, there is still pressure from hedging at high prices [14]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend. If it回调s to the previous low, it can be allocated long, and it is recommended to wait and see at high prices [14]. 3.1.10 Offset Printing Paper - **Current Situation**: Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of offset printing paper is under pressure. The overall social demand is weak, and paper enterprises may adjust supply and demand by reducing prices or production [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will be weakly stable [15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The supply may be reduced seasonally. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline, and there are quarantine issues with Japanese cedar. The domestic demand support is insufficient, and the 01 contract has no clear driving force [15][17]. - **Outlook**: The log market will remain in a loose pattern, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts at low prices [17]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%; the agricultural products index was 930.18, with a daily decline of 0.22%, a 5 - day decline of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.57% [174][176].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating upward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating upward [2] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: This week, the near - month 2601 contract of corn led the rise, with the far - month contracts following. The 1 - month contract reduced positions, and funds shifted to the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts. The futures price broke the oscillation and resumed the upward trend. The high purchase price of the Harbin warehouse of China Grain Reserves Corporation supported the price in Heilongjiang. The futures increase led to an upward adjustment of the northern port quotation. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan showed different trends. The spot price of corn continued to be strong, and the futures price ended the consolidation and broke upward. In December, be vigilant about the continuous adjustment of corn futures and spot quotes and pay attention to the impact of policy expectations on prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly on Thursday. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that as of October 30, the net weekly sales of US soybeans were 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the four - week average. China made its first purchase of 2025 soybeans. Brazil exported 4.197 million tons in November. The rapeseed output in Canada was higher than expected. The domestic protein meal continued to oscillate narrowly, with the near - month performance weaker than the far - month. The spot price of soybean meal continued to oscillate, and the basis quotation rose slightly. The strategy is to think in an oscillating way, use a unilateral range idea, short volatility, and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil continued to fall on Thursday. The market digested the negative news of rising inventory. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November might reach a six - and - a - half - year high. The spot prices of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil both fell, and the price difference between them narrowed. Domestic oil prices decreased, with rapeseed oil falling more than palm oil and soybean oil. The spot supply was sufficient, and the terminal demand was weak, suppressing the price. The strategy is to sell call options and participate in the futures market in the short - term [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the egg futures oscillated downward in the morning and then rebounded. The main 2601 contract closed flat, and the 2603 contract rose 0.29%. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The terminal market purchased as needed, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream sectors was average. The market was optimistic about future capacity elimination. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and be vigilant about the risk of the futures price callback due to the smaller - than - expected capacity reduction. Continuously pay attention to the changes in the replenishment and elimination willingness of the breeding end [1]. - **Pigs**: This week, the near - and far - month contracts of pigs continued to oscillate. At the beginning of the week, the positions of the 2601 contract decreased, and funds shifted to the 2607 and 2609 contracts. The 2609 contract was relatively strong. The spot price of pigs declined. The supply pressure of medium - and large - sized pigs in Northeast China increased, and the price support weakened. Technically, the contradiction between the weak spot and the strong expectation in the pig market continued. From December to before the Spring Festival, the long and short factors of sufficient supply and improving demand were intertwined, and the far - month quotation of pigs was expected to continue the oscillating and slightly strong performance [2]. 3. Market Information - As of November 26, the national ex - factory price of pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, a 1.23% decrease from November 19; the main wholesale market price of corn was 2.28 yuan/kg, the same as on November 19; the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.3, a 1.3% decrease from November 19 [3]. - On December 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 128.52, up 0.36 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 131.11, up 0.42 points from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.65 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from the previous day; beef was 66.32 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease; mutton was 62.39 yuan/kg, a 0.7% decrease; eggs were 7.47 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase [3]. - The price - holding mentality of the breeding end loosened. The overall market supply was abundant, and the terminal demand lacked obvious increase. The pig price further declined, and the breeding loss continued to expand. In the fourth week of November 2025, the national ex - factory price of pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, a 1.23% decrease from the previous period, reaching the lowest level in 5 weeks. The national pig - to - feed ratio was 4.63, a 0.86% decrease month - on - month. According to the current price and cost, the expected loss per head of pig breeding in the future piglet fattening mode was 247.43 yuan [4]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There are spread charts for multiple varieties such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybean 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc. [5][6][7] - **Contract Basis**: There are basis charts for multiple varieties such as corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, etc. [13][14][17] 5. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27]. - Kong Hailan, an analyst of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [7] - Pulp: Consolidation [7] - Logs: Oscillation [7] - Edible oils: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Oilseeds and meals: Stronger oscillation [8] - Agricultural products: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soft commodities: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the expectations from the Politburo meeting were not met. The expected domestic supply policies have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections due to expectation deviations [2]. - The Fed's September rate cut expectations have been frustrated again. The US July PPI soared year-on-year to 3.3%, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered around real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, which are driven by "decentralization" and hedging needs [4]. - USDA significantly lowered the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market [8]. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace hot metal production decreased slightly. Steel mills' profitability was high, and they had little incentive to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in northern regions in late August. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. Real estate and infrastructure demand were weak, causing coking coal prices to decline slightly. Coal mine production recovery was slow, and the inventory of clean coal reached the lowest level since March 2024 last week. Downstream coke and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates. Some coal mines had full pre-sales orders, providing short-term support for coal prices. Supply-side factors are supporting the market, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. To break through the previous high, a continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply cuts. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand exports were overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and total demand was unlikely to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half is expected. The profits of the five major steel products were decent, production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased, and steel mill inventories accelerated their accumulation last week. Social inventories increased at a faster pace. There are expectations of production restrictions during the military parade in mid-August, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions during the military parade for at least two weeks, finished steel products are supported by macro and policy factors in the short term. It is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: Glass prices were in a downward channel. New real estate relaxation policies were introduced, but they had little short-term impact on glass demand. There are expectations of glass factory shutdowns during the military parade, but it is unlikely due to high costs. The operating rate has remained stable recently. Market sentiment has been volatile. The inventory of glass downstream and midstream is low, providing room for restocking, but rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is unlikely to rebound significantly. The trading focus is on "anti-competition and stable growth." After the short-term sentiment is released and the futures price adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.08%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%. Funds flowed into the insurance and home appliance sectors and out of the aerospace and defense and communication equipment sectors. The Fed's September rate cut expectations were frustrated again. The implied volatility rebounded, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Chinese government bond rose 1bp, while FR007 and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Market interest rates rebounded, and the Treasury bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The US debt problem may worsen, weakening the US dollar's credit and highlighting gold's de-fiat currency attribute. Geopolitical risks have decreased marginally, but market hedging needs remain due to Trump's tariff policies. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The short-term factors that drove up the gold price have not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short-term fluctuations. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains above 90%, and the expectation of further monetary policy easing within the year has increased, supporting the gold price. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4][7]. Light Industry - **Paper pulp**: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest FOB prices of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and only rigid demand purchases were made, which was bearish for pulp prices. The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [7]. - **Logs**: The average daily shipment volume at log ports last week was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of September and October approached, the willingness of processors to stock up increased. The average daily outbound volume remained at 64,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in July was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and arrivals in August are expected to remain low. The expected arrivals this week were 190,000 cubic meters, a 60% decrease from the previous week. The supply center has shifted downwards, and the supply pressure is not significant. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The spot market price was stable, and the cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is expected to remain stable. With the expected decrease in log arrivals this week, the supply pressure is generally not significant. Processors' willingness to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume remains at 64,000 cubic meters. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory continued to increase, but the end-of-period inventory of 2.1133 million tons was far lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. The production increase was lower than expected but still at a relatively high level. High-frequency data from shipping agencies showed that palm oil export demand has been strong since August, and the expectation of Indonesian biodiesel production at the end of the year is gradually fermenting. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August remains high, and oil mills' operating rates are high. The increase in soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the oversupply pressure. Palm oil inventory may increase, while rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. Double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand is recovering. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce has boosted rapeseed oil prices. With the support of soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and recovering demand, edible oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, after the previous sharp increase, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [7]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: USDA significantly lowered the US soybean planting area, and production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market. The improvement in US soybean export demand expectations and concerns about the hot and dry weather in some agricultural areas in the US Midwest have boosted US soybean prices. Brazilian soybeans have high premiums due to concentrated demand, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, including a 75.8% deposit, have increased import costs and raised concerns about supply shortages. However, Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and the US soybean production outlook is strong, ensuring sufficient supply. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August is large, and oil mills' operating rates are high. Soybean meal inventory is at a high level and may continue to accumulate. With the addition of low-priced Argentine soybean meal, the supply is very abundant. Downstream buyers are worried about future supply disruptions or higher purchase prices, so they are purchasing in advance and restocking on a rolling basis, driving the trading volume of soybean meal by oil mills to a record high. The main trading volume is for forward basis contracts. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. - **Agricultural products (Pigs)**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.19% to 124.04 kg. The average trading weights in different provinces varied, but the overall trend was downward. High temperatures have slowed down pig growth, and slaughterhouses have increased their purchases of low-priced standard pigs to ease the procurement pressure, leading to a decline in the overall procurement weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses across the country last week was 14.45 yuan/kg, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week. The price has been on a downward trend. Due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter of pigs by farmers and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughterhouses have pressured prices during procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses was 32.49%, a 0.31 percentage point increase from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has been oscillating, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the tight supply of large pigs in some areas supported the price of fat pigs, widening the price difference. As the supply of large pigs increased in some regions and demand was weak, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, the increased enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter pigs led to a concentrated release of standard pig supply, causing the price to drop rapidly and widening the price difference again. With the continuous increase in pig supply and the continued restriction of consumption demand by high temperatures, the average weekly price of pigs may decline in the coming week [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on natural rubber production areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping. The profit from rubber tapping in Yunnan has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in Hainan is good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and below expectations. Driven by the futures market, local processing factories have increased their procurement enthusiasm, driving up the raw material purchase price. In Thailand, the cup lump price has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas has been restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in Vietnam is good, and the raw material price has also increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 9.93 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a 0.80 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 0.73 percentage point increase year-on-year. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production cuts of some factories, while the capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of production by some maintenance enterprises and moderate production increases by enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will provide support, but on the other hand, the maintenance plans of large-scale enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the overall utilization rate. For full-steel tires, as more enterprises resume production, the utilization rate will recover, but the overall increase may be limited due to the production recovery progress. The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with a decline in both bonded and general trade warehouse inventories. Due to the continuous low arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies, the overall warehousing rate has further declined compared to the previous period. The decline in the spot price of natural rubber has prompted downstream tire enterprises to replenish their stocks at low prices, significantly increasing the market procurement enthusiasm compared to the previous period and driving up the overall outbound volume at the port. The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has decreased. The natural rubber market still has a pattern of oversupply, but the gap between supply and demand has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall in domestic and foreign main production areas increases in the next period, the expectation of a tight supply of raw materials will drive up rubber prices. The domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. With the concentrated release of positive factors on the supply side and relatively stable demand, the natural rubber price is expected to maintain a relatively strong upward trend in the short term [10]. Chemicals - **PX**: Sanctions risks have supported oil prices, causing oil prices to rise. The PTA load has oscillated, and the polyester load has rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX have slightly weakened, but it is still in short supply in the short term. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and PX prices will fluctuate with oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have fluctuated significantly. Although the PXN spread is strong, the cost support is average. PTA supply is slowly recovering, and the load of downstream polyester factories has started to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation of PTA. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased slightly last week, and future arrivals may be lower than expected. Terminal demand is weak, domestic production is slowly recovering, and imports are oscillating, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, the supply and demand of MEG are expected to be in a balanced state. Short-term cost fluctuations are large, and low inventory supports the MEG futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [10]. - **PR**: Oil prices have risen, and the procurement of polyester bottle chips on the demand side has maintained low-price rigid replenishment, with cautious buying on rallies. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will fluctuate with polyester costs and show a relatively strong upward trend today [11]. - **PF**: The overnight increase in crude oil prices has provided some support, but the lack of positive factors in the supply and demand expectations of the industrial chain has limited the increase in short fiber prices. It is advisable to wait and see [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]