资料图。本文来源：中国青 年网 作者：宿希强 泸州老窖前三季度营收净利双降 国窖1573等中高档 酒销量同比下滑10% 据近日泸州老窖（000568.SZ）发布的三季报，今年前三季度，泸州老窖营收和净利同比双降。 尤受关注的是，以国窖1573大单品为代表的中高档酒，销量同比下滑10.2%。 官网显示，泸州老窖是浓香技艺的开创者，前身是四川省泸州市曲酒厂，1994年改制上市，是 深交所第一家白酒上市企业。其产品涵盖以国窖1573大单品为代表的中高档酒，及以"泸州老窖 二曲""头曲""黑盖"为代表的中低档酒类。 前三季度整体来看，泸州老窖总营收为231.27亿元，同比下降4.84%；归母净利润107.62亿元， 同比下降7.17%。 Wind数据显示，这是泸州老窖10年来营收和净利润增速首次出现负增长。 以酒品档次区分，今年前三季度，泸州老窖以国窖1573大单品为代表的中高档酒销量为 24119.09吨，同比下滑10.2%，销售收入约211.2亿元，同比下滑1.1%；其中低档酒类销量为 24798.63吨，同比增长17.3%，销售收入约18.9亿元，同比增长16.8%。 中高档产品承压、中低端产品稳健，泸州老窖也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first time in nearly a decade, indicating significant challenges in the current market environment and internal operational issues [3][5][15]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% [4][7]. - The second quarter saw a further decline, with revenue of 7.1 billion yuan, down approximately 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.073 billion yuan, down about 11% [4][5]. - The company's liquor revenue was 16.397 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.62%, while other income fell by 14.68% to 56.56 million yuan [6][7]. Product Performance - Luzhou Laojiao's high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09%, accounting for 91.45% of total revenue, while other liquor sales dropped 16.96% to 1.35 billion yuan [6][7]. - The sales volume of high-end liquor increased by 13.33% to 24,100 tons, but the price per ton decreased by approximately 12.72% [8]. - The company faced challenges in maintaining its high-end market position while competing in the mid and low-end segments, which are under significant pressure [8][19]. Cost and Profitability - The costs of raw materials, labor, and manufacturing increased significantly, with raw material costs rising by 10.07%, labor costs by 14.53%, and manufacturing costs by 7.32% [9][10]. - Despite a reduction in sales expenses by 6.86%, the overall gross margin for liquor decreased by 1.47 percentage points to 87.18%, with net profit margin declining by 0.9 percentage points to 46.6% [12][14]. Market Environment - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a transformation from "volume competition" to "value creation," with significant changes in consumer preferences and market dynamics [5][17]. - Luzhou Laojiao's management highlighted four key shifts in consumer behavior: a focus on quality over quantity, a preference for personalized and lower-alcohol products, a restructured consumption environment, and the integration of online and offline sales channels [17][18]. Strategic Initiatives - To adapt to market changes, Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance its product offerings by developing lower-alcohol products and expanding into new consumption scenarios [18]. - The company aims to strengthen its marketing strategies and improve its digital marketing capabilities to better reach consumers [18][19]. - Luzhou Laojiao is also focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets and diversifying its product range to create a more resilient business model [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, is experiencing performance fluctuations due to a consumption structure transformation and intensified competition in a stagnant market [1][5]. Financial Performance - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 2.67% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year, marking the first decline in net profit for a half-year report since 2014 [3][5]. - The second quarter saw a significant drop in net profit, down over 11% year-on-year, with revenue and net profit at 7.102 billion yuan and 3.070 billion yuan respectively, both showing declines of 7.97% and 11.1% [3][5]. Sales and Pricing - The average price per ton of high-end liquor decreased by approximately 90,000 yuan, a decline of about 12.72%, while other liquor products saw a price drop of around 6,600 yuan, down 10.82% [7][9]. - High-end liquor revenue was 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09%, while other liquor revenue fell by 16.96% to 1.35 billion yuan [6][9]. Inventory and Distribution - As of June 30, the finished liquor inventory was 39,600 tons, with a significant increase in other liquor inventory by 55.28% year-on-year [10]. - The number of domestic distributors decreased by 66 to 1,703, a decline of 3.73%, while international distributors also saw a reduction [10][11]. Market Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao aims to explore new market segments by focusing on "downstream," "low-alcohol liquor," "light bottle liquor," and "instant retail" [13]. - The company plans to enhance its product innovation and develop new consumption methods, including a 28-degree version of Guojiao 1573 [13].

Core Insights - The traditional retail market for liquor is declining, leading to a shift towards trendy supermarkets like Sam's Club, Hema, and Pang Donglai as new battlegrounds for liquor brands [1][22][44] - High-end liquor brands are increasingly collaborating with trendy supermarkets to create exclusive products and drive sales [3][30][45] Group 1: Market Trends - Hema's collaboration with Guangli has led to their multi-grain light bottle liquor consistently topping sales charts, while Yonghui Supermarket's sales of its small-batch liquor reached 30,000 boxes in a single month [2][4] - Major liquor brands are launching special products in partnership with trendy supermarkets to attract consumers, such as the Sichuan Liquor Group's new offerings priced at 99 yuan, 29.9 yuan, and 27.9 yuan [4][29] - The trend of high-end liquor appearing in tasting events at supermarkets is a marketing strategy rather than a sign of market downscaling [9][11][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The introduction of tasting events for high-end liquors at Sam's Club has attracted consumer interest, although many are deterred by transportation issues [10][11] - The popularity of certain products, like the 200 yuan bottle of Jiugui Liquor at Pang Donglai, has led to significant demand, with reports of scalpers reselling it at a premium [5][27] - Data shows that Sam's Club has over 80 SKUs of liquor, with top-selling items priced between 114.9 yuan and 999.9 yuan, indicating a strong consumer interest in both high-end and value products [16][17] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The price of high-end liquors, such as Moutai, has seen a significant decline, with the price dropping from nearly 2,700 yuan in January 2024 to under 2,000 yuan by August 2024 [33][37] - The market is experiencing a polarization in consumer preferences, with products priced under 300 yuan seeing the fastest sales growth [35][36] - The overall pricing structure in the liquor industry is complex, with many brands facing challenges in maintaining their price points amid changing consumer behavior [34][38] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Liquor companies are focusing on increasing the "opening rate" of their products, encouraging consumers to actually consume rather than just purchase [39][40] - The industry is shifting from a reliance on traditional retail channels to innovative partnerships with trendy supermarkets, which are becoming crucial for brand visibility and sales [44][45] - Companies are recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer demographics, particularly targeting younger consumers to foster brand loyalty and consumption habits [43][44]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a quiet transformation, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segment, driven by changing consumer habits and the blurring of traditional consumption scenarios [3] - The industry is in a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, a shift in consumption structure, and intense competition, leading to a notable trend of "declining volume but increasing profits" [4] Industry Trends - In 2024, the total production of large-scale liquor enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue and total profit continue to rise [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a more severe challenge, with liquor production down by 7.2% year-on-year, potentially marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [4] - The revised policy in May 2025, which expands the ban on alcohol to all alcoholic beverages, further exacerbates the decline in traditional government consumption scenarios [4] Consumer Behavior - There is a clear trend towards younger and more rational consumer groups, with the philosophy of "drink less, drink better" gaining traction, leading to a shift towards smaller dining scenarios like casual gatherings and solo dining [6] - In the Chengdu market, the price segment of 100-300 yuan has a market size exceeding 5 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of liquor sales [6] New Consumption Scenarios - The rise of instant retail has revolutionized liquor consumption, with a reported over 100% year-on-year growth in instant retail transactions for liquor, and mid-to-high-end products priced above 500 yuan now accounting for 35% of sales [7] - Outdoor and family scenarios are emerging as new opportunities for mid-to-low-end liquor, with significant growth in consumer access to liquor during outdoor activities [9] - Family gatherings are benefiting from instant retail, allowing for spontaneous purchases of liquor, especially during holidays, with a reported 24% year-on-year growth in liquor sales on platforms like JD.com [10] Product Innovation - The diversification of consumer tastes is prompting liquor companies to innovate, with a focus on lower alcohol content and healthier options, facilitating entry into pure drinking scenarios [11] - The introduction of small bottle liquor options is catering to the "small quantity, multiple times" consumption demand, with over twenty new products launched in the first half of 2025 [11] Market Outlook - The mid-to-low-end liquor market is positioned to capture growth opportunities amid the crisis and market iteration, as the industry transitions from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation" [13] - Companies are encouraged to actively explore new consumption scenarios, innovate products, and leverage emerging channels like instant retail to enhance market penetration and attract younger consumers [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hengshui Laobaigan, is facing significant challenges in its market performance, with declining revenue growth and increased competition from both local and national brands [2][3][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hengshui Laobaigan reported a revenue of 53.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.91%, a stark contrast to the double-digit growth rates of previous years [3][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 11.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of just 3.36% [4]. - The company's products priced below 100 yuan experienced a significant decline, with revenue dropping by 15.65% [4][11]. Group 2: Management and Investor Sentiment - Following disappointing financial results, several executives, including the vice chairman and vice general manager, expressed intentions to reduce their shareholdings, which negatively impacted investor confidence [6][8]. - Among the top ten shareholders, four have reduced their holdings, with significant reductions from various funds, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future [6][8]. Group 3: Market Competition - The local market in Hebei, which is crucial for Hengshui Laobaigan, is becoming increasingly competitive, with local brands like Congtai and Shanzhuang gaining market share [8]. - National brands such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao dominate the high-end market, making it difficult for Hengshui Laobaigan to establish a foothold [8][11]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - The company's attempts to shift towards high-end products have not yielded significant results, as evidenced by low sales of its premium offerings compared to more affordable options [9][11]. - The overall market trend indicates a preference for products priced between 100-200 yuan, which poses a challenge for Hengshui Laobaigan's strategy focused on high-end positioning [11].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has entered a slow growth phase amid a new adjustment cycle in the liquor industry, with 2024 showing the first single-digit growth in net profit since 2014 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3][4] - The basic earnings per share for the company was 9.18 yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [3][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a 1.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% [5] Sales and Market Trends - Total liquor sales volume for Luzhou Laojiao in 2024 was 103,800 tons, reflecting a growth of 7.77%, down from 11.71% the previous year [6] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor, including Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, was 43,000 tons, up 14.39%, while other liquor products saw a growth of only 3.54% [6] - The overall liquor market is experiencing a slowdown, with national liquor production declining by 1.8% in 2024 [8] Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing significant changes, with increasing competition and a shift towards younger, lower-alcohol, and healthier products [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's contract liabilities reached 3.978 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 48%, indicating strong willingness from distributors to make payments [8] - The company has not met its initial target of a 15% revenue growth for the year, attributing this to a shift in consumer demand and a transition phase in the industry [9] Inventory and Supply Management - By the end of 2024, inventory of other liquor products surged to 10,400 tons, an increase of 81.70% year-on-year, primarily due to increased year-end stock for head liquor products [10] - The company is implementing a "control inventory and stabilize prices" strategy to manage market supply and demand effectively [10][11]