格隆汇9月26日｜浙商证券研报指出，酒鬼酒上半年归母净利润0.09亿元（同比-92.60%），25Q2归母净 利润-0.23亿元（同比-147.77%）。公司完善产品体系+推进核心终端建设，联合胖东来开发爆款产品酒 鬼酒·自由爱，当前重点关注该产品的销售情况，以及公司依托该产品在河南及湖南省内的势能提升表 现，期待需求改善下的业绩兑现。考虑到当前内参、酒鬼销售依旧承压，渠道库存消化下报表端表现弱 于动销，调整盈利预测。考虑到政策催化下，白酒需求有望恢复，公司具备高弹性，维持"买入"评级。 ...

在湖南本土市场，重点开展"扫雷"行动二阶段工作，针对已摸排的网点精准释放定向政策，提高终端激 活成功率，有效扩张终端覆盖网络。对于省外重点市场，将持续强化"扫雷"行动力度，进一步下沉聚焦 县、镇市场，深耕县域消费潜力，扩大省外市场份额。 谈及下半年规划，管理层表示，公司持续推进BC联动的营销模式改革，强化渠道建设和终端动销，目 前已取得一定成效，终端库存持续下降。下半年公司管理团队将立足全局，凝聚攻坚合力，以积极姿态 直面压力与挑战。比如持续推进 BC 联动模式，将 B 端核心店建设与 C 端宴席场景、开瓶扫码互动、 回厂游体验等深度绑定，打通产品从分销到动销的链路建设； 9月12日，酒鬼酒举办2025年半年度报告网上业绩说明会。会上管理层介绍，公司与胖东来合作的联名 产品的"酒鬼酒·自由爱"上市以来获得了消费者的广泛认可，目前该产品正按照合作计划进行发货。公 司业绩近两年承压一方面是因为白酒行业正处于深度调整期，白酒消费偏弱，行业竞争加剧；二是公司 营销模式转型仍在推进，加大C端费用投放强化终端动销，短期经销端与实际终端动销不同频，终端动 销传导到公司业绩改善需要一定的时间。 公司产能能够满足"酒鬼酒·自由 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak liquor consumption, but new products have gained market recognition [1][5] - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies, focusing on cost control and enhancing its product system, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 was 561 million yuan, a decrease of 44% year-on-year, with a net profit of 9 million yuan, down 93% [4][5] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 217 million yuan, a decline of 57%, with a net loss of 23 million yuan, a decrease of 148% [4][5] Product and Sales Analysis - The company's product revenue for H1 2025 saw declines across various series, with the "Inner Reference" series down 36%, "Jiu Gui" down 51%, and "Xiang Quan" down 36% [6] - The company has streamlined its product offerings, reducing SKUs by over 50% in the "Jiu Gui" series, and implemented measures to address distributor inventory issues [6] Distribution and New Products - The company is accelerating the clearing of its distribution system, with a net reduction of 531 distributors, bringing the total to 805 [7] - A new co-branded product, "Jiu Gui Jiu · Free Love," launched in collaboration with a supermarket chain, has quickly sold out, indicating strong market demand [7] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts EPS of 0.17 yuan for 2025, 0.44 yuan for 2026, and 0.79 yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 391, 147, and 82 times [8][11] - The projected revenue growth rates are -49.7% for 2024, -16.8% for 2025, 9.8% for 2026, and 18.0% for 2027 [11]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 560 million yuan, down 43.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 10 million yuan, down 92.6% [1] - The weak recovery in business consumption scenarios and the demand for mid-to-high-end products remain a challenge for the company's performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from different product lines was as follows: Neican at 110 million yuan (down 35.8%), Jiugui at 290 million yuan (down 51.0%), Xiangquan at 30 million yuan (down 35.9%), and other series at 130 million yuan (down 28.8%) [1][2] - The Jiugui series experienced a significant decline, while the Neican series managed to improve its gross margin by narrowing discounts, achieving a gross margin of 88.9% (up 0.9 percentage points) [2] Regional Performance - Major markets saw substantial declines, with the core market in Central China generating 310 million yuan (down 42.5%), and North and East China regions down 39.6% and 45.7% respectively [2] Channel Strategy - The company is actively restructuring its distribution channels, significantly reducing the number of distributors, particularly in Central China, and establishing a dedicated sales company to enhance market penetration [2][3] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 68.7%, down 4.6 percentage points, primarily due to product mix decline and weakened scale effects [3] - The net profit margin was 1.6%, down 10.6 percentage points, attributed to worsening gross sales differences [3] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of the second quarter of 2025, cash receipts from sales were 220 million yuan, down 57.1%, with a negative cash flow of 110 million yuan [3] - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and enhancing direct sales and group purchase channels to alleviate pressure on distributor repayments [3] Strategic Adjustments - The company is adapting to consumer trends by launching cost-effective products and strengthening partnerships with new retail channels [4] - It is focusing on deepening its market presence in its home base of Hunan and exploring county and town markets in other regions [4] Profit Forecast - The company projects net profits of 20 million yuan, 50 million yuan, and 70 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.06 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.21 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor industry is under pressure, with 20 listed liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 241.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 1.59% year-on-year, and net profits also facing challenges [1] - The industry is experiencing a significant divergence, with only 6 companies achieving both revenue and net profit growth, and only 4 companies maintaining positive revenue growth in the second quarter [1][2] - Major liquor companies are proactively adjusting strategies and innovating to strengthen core competitiveness and market share amid the industry's complex environment [1][4] Industry Performance - The liquor industry is currently in a "deep water zone" characterized by reduced volume, falling prices, and high inventory levels, leading to a cautious approach among companies [1][2] - Companies like Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu have acknowledged the industry's deep adjustment and the need for structural optimization to navigate the current cycle [1][2] Strategic Adjustments - "Proactive deceleration, controlling volume and stabilizing prices" has become a common strategy among liquor companies, with a focus on stability in their 2025 targets [2][4] - Nine companies have reduced contract liabilities to alleviate pressure on traditional channels, indicating a flexible market operation strategy [4] Inventory Management - The current "suspension of sales" trend is a significant market adjustment tool, with a broader product coverage and increased participation from both major and regional brands [5][7] - As of June 2025, the total inventory of 20 listed liquor companies reached approximately 170 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend [7] Low-Alcohol Trend - The low-alcohol trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu launching new low-alcohol products to meet changing consumer preferences [8][10] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30%, with expectations to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025 [11] Cross-Industry Innovations - Liquor companies are actively pursuing cross-industry innovations to expand their market reach and appeal to diverse consumer groups [14][18] - Collaborations with retail giants and the introduction of new product lines are strategies employed to enhance market penetration and operational efficiency [15][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][10] Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure in the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in revenue and a shift to a net loss in the second quarter [2][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product offerings and channel strategies, particularly by streamlining its SKU for the Jiugui series and emphasizing major products [3][12] - The overall industry demand remains uncertain, and the company is adjusting its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027 [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 561 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%, and a net profit of 8.95 million yuan, down 92.6% [2][5] - The second quarter saw revenue drop to 217 million yuan, a 56.6% decline year-on-year, resulting in a loss of 23 million yuan [2][5] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 88.9%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.87 percentage points year-on-year, despite the overall revenue decline [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1.11 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected year-on-year change of -21.9%, +17.8%, and +8.2% [5][10] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 40 million, 131 million, and 301 million yuan, with significant year-on-year growth rates of +223.1%, +223.8%, and +130.3% [5][10] - The company is focusing on channel management and inventory reduction to alleviate cash flow pressures [4][5] Product and Market Strategy - The company is concentrating on its main product lines, particularly the Neican series, which saw a revenue decline of 35.8% in the first half of 2025 [3][12] - The Jiugui series experienced a revenue drop of 51.0%, with a significant reduction in sales volume [3][12] - The company is also exploring new product collaborations, such as the "Ziyou Ai" product launched in July 2025, which is expected to contribute to revenue in the second half of the year [5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decline in the financial performance of the company, with total revenue and net profit experiencing substantial year-on-year decreases in the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the liquor industry, particularly in the second quarter [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 561 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 43.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.955 million yuan, down 92.6% [3]. - The second quarter alone saw total revenue of 217 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.57%, with a net profit of -23 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 147.8% [3]. Industry Trends - The white liquor industry continues to face deep adjustments, with the second quarter being particularly impacted by policy influences, leading to cautious channel payment intentions [4]. - The company's revenue decline in Q2 was more pronounced than in Q1, where revenue had decreased by 30.34% [4]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company focused on marketing themes related to education, weddings, and sports events to drive consumer engagement and increase sales through direct consumer interactions [4]. - A strategic simplification of product offerings was implemented, focusing on a "2+2+2" product system to enhance core product performance and promote new offerings [4]. Channel and Distribution - The company is actively working on core terminal construction and has initiated a "sweep" action in key markets to refine distribution channels [4]. - The number of distributors decreased to 805 by the end of the first half of 2025, a reduction of 531 compared to the end of 2024, particularly in the central China region [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 65.2%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [5]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was -10.47%, reflecting a decline of approximately 20 percentage points year-on-year, highlighting significant profitability challenges [5]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Cash receipts from sales in Q2 amounted to 222 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 57.1%, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -107 million yuan [5]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, contract liabilities stood at 135 million yuan, a decrease of 44 million yuan from Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in channel confidence [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of leading market returns over the next 6-12 months [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 561 million yuan, down 43.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.955 million yuan, down 92.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw an even sharper decline, with revenue of 217 million yuan, down 56.57% year-on-year, and a net profit of -23 million yuan, a decrease of 147.8% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on marketing strategies targeting graduation, weddings, and sports events to enhance consumer engagement and sales [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 561 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 43.54%. The second quarter alone saw a revenue drop of 56.57% [2][3]. - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 8.955 million yuan, a 92.6% decrease year-on-year, with Q2 showing a net loss of 23 million yuan [2][3]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company has streamlined its product offerings and is implementing a "2+2+2" strategic product system, focusing on major products and promoting new launches [3]. - Marketing efforts are concentrated on enhancing consumer interaction through events and promotions, aiming to boost sales and brand recognition [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 65.2%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -10.47%, reflecting significant pressure on profitability [4]. - The company’s cash collection in Q2 2025 was 222 million yuan, a decline of 57.1% year-on-year, indicating challenges in cash flow management [4]. Future Projections - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been significantly reduced, with expected net profits of 1.9 million yuan for 2025 and 7.9 million yuan for 2026, reflecting a downward adjustment of 95% and 81% respectively from previous estimates [5][6]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in 2027, projecting a net profit of 10.5 million yuan [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating short-term pressure on performance due to cautious cash flow from downstream partners [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 561 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 million yuan, down 92.60% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 217 million yuan, a decline of 56.57%, with a net profit of -23 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 147.77% [1]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 68.58% and 1.60%, respectively, down 4.77 and 10.58 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on a "2+2+2" strategic product system, emphasizing major products and gradually upgrading them [1]. - Revenue from different product lines in H1 2025 showed declines, with the Inner Reference series, Jiu Gui series, and Xiang Quan series experiencing decreases of 35.81%, 51.01%, and 35.87%, respectively [1]. - The company has strengthened direct sales and special channel construction, leveraging collaboration with COFCO Group to enhance business growth [2]. New Product Development - The launch of the co-developed product "Jiu Gui Jiu·Zi You Ai" has gained significant market recognition, with strong sales reported since its release [2]. - The company plans to introduce new products targeting young consumers, including low-alcohol options and small wine products, to enhance market presence [3]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company anticipates stabilization and recovery in H2 2025, with projected revenues of 1.444 billion, 1.605 billion, and 1.853 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4]. - The expected net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 35 million, 60 million, and 129 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating a neutral rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai through the new product "Jiugui Liquor·Free Love" represents a critical moment for Jiugui Liquor, which is facing a severe decline in profits and operational efficiency, while also raising concerns about the potential disruption of its pricing structure [1][3][4][20]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiugui Liquor's net profit has plummeted by 90%, with a forecast for 2025 indicating a profit of only 12.49 million yuan [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the first three months of the year was 34.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34%, and net profit dropped by 56.78% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - Inventory turnover days have increased to 1576 days, indicating that it would take over four years to convert inventory into cash [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of "Jiugui Liquor·Free Love" has been inflated on second-hand platforms, reaching 210-245 yuan per bottle, despite a retail price of 200 yuan [1][8]. - The collaboration has led to a significant increase in Jiugui Liquor's stock price, which rose by 20% following the announcement of the partnership [12]. - The product's cost structure reveals a gross margin of only 15.87%, significantly lower than the industry average of 30%-50% [12][15]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The partnership is seen as a potential lifeline for Jiugui Liquor, with experts suggesting it could help revitalize the brand and improve sales through Pang Donglai's extensive retail network [18][21]. - The collaboration is part of a broader strategy to penetrate the mid-range market, with expectations of significant sales growth in the coming years [18][19]. - Concerns have been raised about the long-term impact on Jiugui Liquor's pricing structure and brand perception, as the low-margin product could disrupt existing pricing strategies [14][20].