2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年7月7日-2025年7月11日，沪深300指数上涨0.82%，申万食品饮料指 数上涨0.93%。前五大上涨个股分别为：国投中鲁、良品铺子、皇台酒业、海融科技、交大昂立。 机构观点 国元证券本周观点(含个股)： 白酒方面，当前白酒需求暂时承压，建议关注护城河宽阔，品牌、渠道力领先，韧性强的高端酒企，如 贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖，以及竞争格局较好、势能向上的区域领先酒企。大众品方面，黄酒消费 热度渐起；啤酒消费逐渐进入旺季；休闲零食、能量饮料等细分赛道景气度高；餐饮供应链逐渐修复； 乳业上游供给端原奶价格底部企稳，龙头乳企韧性较强；健康趋势下，代糖概念迎来新机遇。建议关注 会稽山、古越龙山、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、东鹏饮料、三只松鼠、海天味业、伊利股份、新乳业、百龙 创园等。 东海证券本周建议(含个股)： 据南都•湾财社，泸州老窖年度股东大会上，董事长刘淼宣布已研发28度国窖1573，将适时投放市场， 公司还在研发更低度数白酒。此前五粮液也表示将推29度酒以抓住年轻群体。新修订的"禁酒令"下，政 白酒板块建议关注高端酒和区域龙头，个股建议关注贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 ...

今年以来，白酒价格持续波动，降价成市场趋势，国家统计局最新数据为酒类市场释放更清晰信号。 根据国家统计局近日公布的数据，2025年6月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。但酒类价格同比下降1.7%， 环比下降0.3%；而纵观1-6月整体表现，酒类价格更是录得2.0%的同比降幅。持续走低的价格曲线背后，是消费市 场深层逻辑的悄然转变。 | | | 环比涨跌幅 | 同比涨跌幅 | 1-6月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 同比涨跌幅 (%) | | 居民消费价格 | | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | | 其中:城市 | | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | | 农村 | | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | | 其中:食品 | | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.9 | | 非食品 | | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | | 其中:消费品 | | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | | 服务 | | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | | 其中:不包括食品和能源 | | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | | ...

白酒行业进入深度调整期的当下，酒企与"流量渠道商"的战略合作正掀起新一轮浪潮。7月10日，北京商报记者从胖东来创始人于东来社交平台账号处获 悉，胖东来与宝丰酒业合作推出的"自由爱"单品预计年内实现营收约10亿元。 8 搜同款 > 百有(本地 1987 071 酒鬼自由爱馥郁香型白酒 酒精度:52%vol ○ 净含量:550mL 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 @胖东来于东来 思想 · 文化·品位·品质 …… 湘西的精神、 湘西的传奇和胖东来的作品·让生活像艺 155 术一样浪漫和唯美! ... 展开 2025-6-29 19:33 IP属地:河南 图片来源 近年来，酒企与流量渠道商合作推出新品的案例并非个例。从胖东来与宝丰酒业推出"自由爱"，到京东与洋河股份推出"洋河大曲"，再到胖东来联手酒鬼酒 推出"酒鬼酒·自由爱"，近年来，酒企与流量渠道商频频通过推出联名定制产品上演跨界合作的戏码，早已成为行业引爆资本市场与终端市场的"流量密 码"。如今，当"自由爱"有望突破10亿元营收、洋河大曲48小时销量破万瓶时，"酒企+流量渠道商"模式能否复制以解决行业动销及压货难题？ 联手推新 知名酒企纷纷与流量渠道商展开深度合作推出联名定 ...

酒鬼酒（000799）公告，公司拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元，用于当地教育、医疗、科技、文 化等帮扶项目。此次捐赠不构成关联交易，且不会对公司经营产生重大影响。 ...

Group 1 - Fenggu Liquor Industry has appointed Chen Chao as the chairman candidate, indicating a positive change in the industry after its bankruptcy restructuring [1] - Chen Chao, born in June 1989, has extensive experience in the liquor industry and management, which may enhance market confidence in Fenggu's recovery [1] Group 2 - Fat Donglai's founder Yu Donglai announced that the "Free·Love" product line is expected to generate around 1 billion yuan in revenue this year, showcasing the brand's ambition to achieve international quality standards [2] - The collaboration between Fat Donglai and Baofeng Distillery to launch "Free·Love" reflects an innovative approach in the retail sector, potentially opening new sales channels for traditional liquor companies [2] Group 3 - Moutai and Xijiu have donated a total of 20 million yuan for disaster recovery efforts in Qiandongnan Prefecture, demonstrating corporate social responsibility and strengthening their brand image [3] - The donations include 10 million yuan from Moutai and 3 million yuan from Xijiu, highlighting the close relationship between local liquor companies and regional development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor brand "Ziyouai" from Pang Donglai is expected to achieve approximately 1 billion yuan in revenue this year, marking it as a significant product in the market [1][4]. Company Summary - "Ziyouai" is a white liquor brand launched by Pang Donglai in collaboration with Baofeng Distillery, with the product "Baofeng·Ziyouai" being a key contributor to its sales [1][5]. - The product is priced at 75 yuan per bottle and has become one of the top three selling products for Pang Donglai, with daily sales ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 boxes, and potentially reaching 7,000 boxes during holidays [4][5]. - Baofeng Distillery, which was previously struggling, is projected to achieve around 500 million yuan in sales in 2024 due to the success of "Ziyouai" [5]. Industry Summary - The collaboration between liquor companies and new retail channels is reshaping the market, with a focus on creating "explosive" products in the "民酒" (popular liquor) category, particularly those priced below 100 yuan [5][6]. - The new retail model allows for direct sourcing, reducing the role of traditional distributors, and encourages liquor companies to adopt lower-margin strategies while benefiting from high turnover rates [6]. - Recent policy changes, such as the "ban on alcohol" in May, have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with a trend towards lower-priced liquor products [7]. - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association's report indicates that products priced between 100 to 300 yuan, 300 to 500 yuan, and below 100 yuan are seeing the highest sales rates [7]. - There is an increasing interest among liquor companies in the new retail model, with 34.9% expressing a preference for this approach, suggesting potential market expansion and opportunities for explosive growth [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]