8月22日晚间，酒鬼酒发布2025年半年度报告。 然而，酒鬼酒尚未形成和经销商共生共荣的关系，在此过程中并未积极帮助经销商消化库存，结果就是 行业整体库存压力较大的背景下业绩失速且经销商出逃。 根据财报，2025年上半年，酒鬼酒实现营业收入5.61亿元，同比下降43.54%；实现归母净利润895.50万 元，同比下降92.60%；扣非净利润同样下跌92.79%至842.07万元。 其中，2025年第二季度实现营收2.17亿元，同比增长56.57%；归母净利润亏损0.23亿元，同比下降 147.77%；扣非归母净利润亏损0.23亿元，同比下降148.77%。 数据和此前披露的业绩预告相差无几。 酒鬼酒将业绩下降的原因指向白酒行业的深度调整，其在财报中表示，白酒行业整体承压以及马太效应 加剧的背景下，中小企业普遍面临巨大经营压力，经销商回款趋于谨慎，对业绩造成明显冲击。同时， 酒鬼酒也指出，自身正处于战略转型期，存在新旧动能转化周期较长的风险。 事实上，酒鬼酒已经经历了两年的业绩大幅下滑。 2021年，酒鬼酒的营业收入和归母净利润分别同比增长86.97%和81.75%，实现了自2016年以来的增幅 之最。2022 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 酒鬼酒 (000799.SZ) 投资评级 无评级 上次评级 [Table_A 赵丹晨 uthor 食品饮料] 行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080005 邮 箱： zhaodanchen@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 经营筑底，渠道创新 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：公司公告 ummary]，2025 年上半年实现营收 5.61 亿元，同比减少 43.54%；归母 净利润 0.09 亿元，同比减少 92.6%；销售收现 6.85 亿元，同比减少 40.67%； 经营净现金流-2.34 亿元，同比减少 12.23%；期末合同负债 1.35 亿元，环比减 少 0.44 亿元。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing performance pressure due to a weakened demand in the liquor industry and is undergoing a transformation period, focusing on C-end sales to drive growth [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase, with a noticeable decline in consumption demand and intensified competition, leading to a more pronounced Matthew effect [1] - High-end liquor demand has significantly decreased in recent years due to the industry's weak cycle [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company has initiated a comprehensive market assessment and is enhancing market development through a "雷扫行动" (雷扫行动) to improve service and management levels [1] - The company has launched a "二低一小" (two low and one small) product strategy to cater to diverse market demands, focusing on low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small-sized products [1][2] - The low-end liquor strategy aims to leverage increased base liquor capacity to support mid-to-low-end product offerings, emphasizing cost-effectiveness [2] - The low-alcohol liquor strategy targets younger consumers with products that have lower alcohol content but rich flavors [2] - The small-sized product strategy focuses on expanding restaurant channels to reach more consumers and promote the brand's unique flavor [2] Group 3: Marketing and Brand Development - The company is adjusting its marketing strategy to focus on themes such as education, marriage, and sports events, enhancing the precision of marketing expenditures and sales conversion effectiveness [1] - A collaboration with the brand "胖东来" has been established to create a product that aligns with both companies' cultural values, emphasizing freedom and quality [2] Group 4: Financial Management - To maintain terminal sales, the company plans to invest in promotional activities such as scan-to-redeem red envelopes and banquet policies, which may lead to a decrease in net profit margin due to discrepancies between distributor and actual terminal sales [3]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Jiu Gui Jiu is 47.40 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 218 million yuan [1] - The stock price fluctuated between 47.06 yuan and 47.59 yuan during the day, with a turnover rate of 1.42% [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu is a well-known liquor company in Hunan, primarily producing fragrant liquor and owning brands such as Nei Can, Jiu Gui, and Xiang Quan [1] Group 2 - The company has a total market capitalization of 15.402 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 121.41 times [1] - Recent investor relations activities revealed that the company faced performance pressure in the first half of the year due to intensified competition during the industry adjustment period [1] - To adapt to market changes, the company has initiated a "two low and one small" product strategy, focusing on low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small-sized products [1] Group 3 - The company plans to support its mid-to-low-end product lines through capacity release and introduce new low-alcohol products targeting younger consumers [1] - On the funding side, Jiu Gui Jiu experienced a net outflow of 4.0269 million yuan in main funds on the day, with a cumulative net outflow of 125 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, leading to significant performance pressure on liquor companies, particularly for JiuGuiJiu, which has reported a substantial decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - JiuGuiJiu expects revenue of approximately 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 43% [1][2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, representing a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 already showed a downward trend, with revenue of 344 million yuan, down 30.34%, and a net profit of 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% [3]. - The first half of 2024 had a revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5%, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with increased pressure on operations, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][4]. - JiuGuiJiu's performance has been declining sharply since 2023, with a reported revenue of approximately 2.83 billion yuan in 2023, down 30.14%, and a net profit of about 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [8]. - In 2024, the company continued to see significant contraction, with revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, down 49.70%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [8]. Company Challenges - JiuGuiJiu's geographical limitations are evident, with 45.11% of revenue coming from Hunan province [9]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with online sales only reaching 186 million yuan compared to 1.229 billion yuan from offline channels in 2024 [9]. - The number of distributors has decreased significantly, from 1,774 at the end of 2023 to 1,336 by the end of 2024, indicating a contraction in sales channels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in its operational performance, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, attributed to both internal and external factors [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue decline of 49.7% and a net profit decline of 97.7% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is currently undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on enhancing product appeal through a differentiated product strategy, which includes low-end, low-alcohol, and small-sized products [2][4]. Group 2: External Factors - The external challenges include unfavorable consumer sentiment, intensified competition within the industry, and weakened channel confidence, all contributing to a difficult market environment [5][6]. - The white liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment phase, impacting overall market conditions [6]. Group 3: Internal Factors - The company is in a phase of accumulating new momentum during its strategic transformation, transitioning from quantitative growth to qualitative improvement [4][6]. - The company has seen a significant increase in national business unit coverage by 26 percentage points and a doubling of customer numbers in previous years, which had previously driven rapid performance growth [6]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus from national expansion to deepening its presence in its home market, emphasizing the importance of solidifying the foundational market before pursuing broader growth [7]. - The company aims to balance maintaining high-end product pricing stability with market acceptance, while also enhancing the value proposition of low-end products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing a significant decline in performance, with a 49.7% drop in revenue and a 97.72% decrease in net profit for 2024, primarily due to the poor performance of its high-end product line, "Neican Series" [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue fell to 1.423 billion yuan, and net profit dropped to 12.49 million yuan, marking the lowest levels since 2015 [1] - The "Neican Series" revenue plummeted from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 to 235 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 67.06%, with gross margin decreasing from 91.63% to 87.71% [1] Group 2: Inventory Issues - Despite claims of over 100% distribution and sales rates, investors are skeptical about the actual inventory reduction, which is reported to be less than 5% [2] - The company maintains high finished goods inventory levels to ensure "reasonable stocking" for sales, reflecting a lack of confidence in the distribution channels [2] Group 3: Distributor Reduction - The number of distributors decreased from 1,774 to 1,336 in 2024, as the company aims to improve distributor quality by eliminating inefficient clients [3] - This strategy has caused short-term channel disruptions but is intended to optimize the distribution structure and focus on core markets [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is shifting from aggressive national expansion to a "focus strategy," pausing production capacity expansion and reducing SKU by 50% to streamline operations [4] - The focus will be on the Hunan market and select external markets, abandoning low-return areas like Beijing and Shanghai [4] Group 5: Industry Context - The company's challenges reflect broader issues faced by regional liquor companies during a period of industry adjustment, including high-end market difficulties and channel instability [5] - The management's focus strategy aims to establish a stronghold in the Hunan market, where the current market share is approximately 15% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of JiuGuiJiu Co., Ltd. has significantly declined over the past two years, with net profit dropping from 1.049 billion yuan in 2022 to 12.4933 million yuan in 2024, raising concerns about the company's future [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, JiuGuiJiu reported revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.4933 million yuan, down 97.72% year-on-year [3] - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue and net profit falling by 30.34% and 56.78% respectively [2][3] Product Performance - The "JiuGui" series accounted for nearly 60% of revenue in 2024, generating 835 million yuan, a decline of 49.32% [4] - The high-end "NeiCan" series saw revenue drop to 235 million yuan, a decrease of 67.06%, with its revenue share falling from 25.27% in 2023 to 16.55% in 2024 [4] Market Challenges - The rapid expansion of distribution channels has led to inventory buildup, causing the "NeiCan" series to struggle with sales and pricing issues since 2023 [5] - The overall demand for high-end liquor has decreased, and competition has intensified, impacting the sales of the "NeiCan" series [6][9] Strategic Adjustments - JiuGuiJiu plans to reduce its SKU by 50% to streamline its product offerings and focus on high-potential items [10] - The company is also exploring the introduction of smaller packaging products to target the mass market [11] Management Changes - Since 2024, JiuGuiJiu has experienced frequent changes in its management team, including the appointment of a new chairman and the resignation of key executives [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in its performance during the adjustment period, with projected revenues and net profits for 2024 at 1.423 billion and 12.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 49.70% and 97.72% [1][4]. - The company is anticipated to focus its resources on its core market in 2025, which may lead to a breakthrough in performance [2]. - The report indicates a decline in gross margin and net margin due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin products, particularly the "Neican" series [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 1.423 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 49.70%. The net profit is expected to be 12.49 million, down 97.72% [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease to 71.37%, a drop of 6.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at 0.88%, down 18.48 percentage points [3]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted at 22.01 million, significantly lower than previous years [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of 1.252 billion, representing a 12.03% decline from 2024, and net profit is expected to rise to 112.39 million, a significant increase of 799.64% [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 122X, 84X, and 64X respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decrease in sales volume and price for the company's products in 2024, with the liquor sales volume and price dropping by 32.98% and 25.17% respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 438 to 1,336, with the average distributor scale declining by 33.41% to 1.0588 million per distributor, contributing to the revenue decline [2].

Group 1 - Luzhou Laojiao's director Qian Xu has resigned for personal reasons, effective immediately, and will not hold any positions in the company or its subsidiaries [1] - The company confirmed that Qian Xu's resignation does not affect the minimum number of board members and will not disrupt normal operations [1] - The company will proceed with the legal process to elect a new director [1] Group 2 - Kuaijishan's stock price has hit the limit up for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 33%, and a closing price of 25.81 yuan [2] - The company's static P/E ratio is 63.08, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.51 [2] - The company has issued a risk warning due to the significant short-term price increase, advising investors to be cautious [2][3] Group 3 - Jiu Gui Jiu's revenue for the high-end brand Neican has dropped by 67%, with overall revenue for 2024 down 49.7% to 1.423 billion yuan [4] - The company is focusing on price stability rather than volume growth in response to increased competition and a weak industry cycle [4] - The overall white liquor industry is facing dual pressures from demand and competition, indicating potential adjustments in the sector [4] Group 4 - From January to April, the revenue of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry increased by 3.7% year-on-year, reaching 548.96 billion yuan [6] - The total profit for this sector was 98.33 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year growth [6] - The performance of this sector is stronger than the overall industrial growth, indicating resilience and providing confidence to related sectors [6]