浙商证券研报指出，山推股份工程机械产品依托自身推土机渠道及山东重工集团黄金内核（潍柴发动机 +林德液压件+山推传动件）、渠道协同（中国重汽、潍柴动力渠道协同销售）有望快速增长。推土机 迈向全球，挖掘机打开空间，矿山机械发展潜力大。雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程项目有望拉动公司工程机 械产品需求。另外，公司拟发行H股深入推进全球化战略，未来雷沃工程机械与山推同业竞争有望逐步 解决。此外，王志坚同志任山东重工集团董事长；山推已回购股份1.1亿元。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power achieved revenue of approximately 57.42 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1%, driven by the recovery of the heavy truck industry and the increase in large cylinder production [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 engine registration volume reached 40,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.0% [1] - Market share stood at 17.8%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage point [1] - The company has optimized various expense ratios year-on-year through refined management [1] Business Development - The company is actively embracing new energy solutions and enhancing profitability through AI products [1] - High-growth was observed in high-end hydraulic systems, transmissions, and axles, while the agricultural equipment business is advancing towards larger, higher-end, and smarter upgrades [1] - The main business is developing steadily, with multiple business lines accelerating their implementation, indicating a potential for sustained high growth in performance [1] Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is stabilizing and recovering, supported by the trade-in policy [1] - The company maintains stable cash flow and is considered a high-dividend quality stock, leading to a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is maintained at "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - Weichai Power reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately 57.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.23 billion yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year. The company emphasizes technological innovation and strategic emerging businesses, aiming for high-quality development [2][4][10]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 12.001 billion, 13.746 billion, and 14.957 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.07X, 11.41X, and 10.49X, respectively. The company is seen as a high-dividend quality stock with stable cash flow, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old vehicles and a recovery in the heavy truck industry [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Weichai Power achieved revenue of approximately 57.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1%. The domestic heavy truck wholesale volume reached 282,000 units, up 58.1% year-on-year [10]. - The company's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3%. The net profit margin was 5.6%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intensified industry competition and price reductions from downstream customers [10]. Business Development - Weichai Power is accelerating its diversification strategy, with significant growth in its new energy products and high-end hydraulic systems. The company has launched its first power battery product using blade battery technology [10]. - The company’s subsidiary KION reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.7 billion euros (approximately 22.56 billion yuan), with a net profit of 120 million euros (approximately 990 million yuan), reflecting a net profit margin of 4.4% [10]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by government policies and a strong cash flow position. The company is positioned as a high-quality investment opportunity with a stable dividend yield [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - A significant trend of full industrial chain overseas expansion is defining the epic journey of Chinese enterprises going global, as highlighted by the recent Shandong Heavy Industry and Weichai Power Global Partner Conference in Qingdao [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Business Growth - Shandong Heavy Industry's revenue for the first three quarters of this year approached 440 billion, with a growth rate exceeding 9%, and product export revenue reached 72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%-7%, expected to reach 100 billion for the entire year [5][6]. - Compared to five years ago, overseas revenue was less than 20 billion, with a contribution rate of less than 10%; by 2025, the contribution rate is projected to reach 60%, a fourfold increase [6]. - In the first three quarters, the export revenue of Weichai's engine segment grew by over 30%, achieving a historical high, with overseas business revenue accounting for approximately 46% [6]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Localization - Shandong Heavy Industry has held four global partner conferences in high-growth regions such as Kazakhstan, UAE, Indonesia, and Mexico since 2023 [7]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group reported a 37.4% increase in heavy truck sales in Africa and a 41.5% increase in Southeast Asia during the first three quarters [8]. - The localization of products and services has become a core competitive factor for Chinese enterprises overseas, with China National Heavy Duty Truck establishing over 230 dealers and nearly 400 service outlets globally [11]. Group 3: Competitive Strategy - The strategy of not engaging in price wars but focusing on product adaptability and service quality is emphasized, with companies leveraging their service advantages to avoid price competition [14]. - Shandong Heavy Industry's approach includes customized product development based on local market needs, which enhances competitiveness without resorting to price cuts [13][17]. - The company has established over 1,000 overseas channels and 38 trade platforms to maximize resource efficiency in international markets [18]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts and Future Plans - The group aims to achieve local team management, manufacturing, and R&D to enhance customer satisfaction and trust in their products [19]. - Shandong Heavy Industry plans to invest 13.6 billion in R&D in 2024, maintaining a high intensity of investment at 4.2% of revenue [23]. - The recent global partner conference showcased the company's commitment to collaboration and resource sharing among its subsidiaries to strengthen its global presence [24].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Heavy Industry Group is significantly expanding its global presence, with a projected export revenue of 100 billion RMB by 2025, marking a fivefold increase from 2020, and aims for over 60% of total revenue to come from overseas operations [2][4][8]. Group Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Shandong Heavy Industry reported nearly 440 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year increase of over 9% [3]. - Export revenue for the same period reached 72.7 billion RMB, with an expected annual total of 100 billion RMB, which is five times the export revenue of 2020 [4][5]. Subsidiary Contributions - Weichai Power, a subsidiary, achieved over 250 billion RMB in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 30% increase in engine exports [4][6]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) exported 111,000 heavy trucks in the first nine months, a 24.5% increase, maintaining its position as the leading exporter in China [5][6]. - Zhongtong Bus's overseas business accounted for 70% of its revenue, with a 40% increase year-on-year [6][7]. Globalization Strategy - The group emphasizes a balanced global industrial layout to mitigate local market risks, with 30% of overseas revenue coming from local manufacturing and sales of Chinese products [8][9]. - The company aims for deep localization in its global strategy, ensuring that supply chains and production align with local markets [9][10]. Future Directions - Shandong Heavy Industry plans to focus on four strategic directions: new energy, digital intelligence, aftermarket services, and globalization, with a goal of achieving 100 billion USD in revenue by 2030 [11].

Investment Highlights - July sales: Production and wholesale meet expectations, exports exceed expectations. 1) Production: July heavy truck production was 81,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +58.4%/-17.4%; 2) Wholesale: July heavy truck wholesale sales were 85,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +45.6%/-13.3%; 3) Terminal sales: July heavy truck terminal sales were 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +38.3%/-7.2%; 4) Exports: July heavy truck export sales were 27,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +25.4%/-7.5%; 5) Inventory: July heavy truck enterprise inventory decreased by 4,000 units, and channel inventory decreased by 6,400 units. Current industry total inventory is 133,000 units, which is at a reasonable level [2][14][11]. Industry Structure - New energy heavy trucks saw a month-on-month decline, while natural gas heavy trucks continued to decline. July new energy heavy truck sales were 16,700 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +152%/-7.6%, and new energy penetration rate was 25.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +11.6/-0.1 percentage points. July natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -21.7%/+4.0%, and natural gas penetration rate was 21.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -16.7/-2.3 percentage points [14][38][41]. Market Share Dynamics - In July, Dongfeng and Foton's domestic sales share increased month-on-month, while heavy truck and Foton's export share also increased month-on-month. Terminal market share for July 2025 was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8%, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.4/+1.1/-1.9/+0.01/+3.5 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being +1.5/+0.8/-1.0/-0.8/+0.4 percentage points [3][51]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai's market share decreased month-on-month, falling to second place. In July, Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai's market shares were 16.8%, 17.8%, 15.6%, 8.9%, and 13.7%, respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -10.7/-0.8/-0.5/+1.7/+0.2 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being -1.1/+0.5/+0.5/-0.3/-0.2 percentage points [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance under the stimulus of the National IV policy throughout the year. Recommendations include China National Heavy Duty Truck A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement elasticity of FAW Jiefang and Foton [5][74].