智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称，10月重卡行业生产、批发、零售及出口数据均超预期。该行 预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。看好国四政策刺激下全年板块行情。推荐中 国重汽(000951.SZ，03808)+潍柴动力(000338.SZ)，重视一汽解放(000800.SZ)+福田汽车(600166.SH)业 绩改善弹性。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 数据总览 批发：10月重卡批发销量10.6万辆，同环比分别为+60.0%/+0.6%，超该行预期。终端：10月重卡终端销 量7.0万辆，同环比分别为+56.6%/-15.9%，超该行预期。出口：10月重卡出口销量3.3万辆，同环比分别 为+43.8%/+4.8%，超该行预期。库存：渠道库存增加0.32万辆，当前行业总库存11.5万辆。展望：该行 预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。 10月格局：潍柴份额位居第一，环比上升 发动机格局：潍柴份额位居第一，环比上升。1)整体：终端口径下，10月潍柴/康明斯/锡柴/重汽/玉柴市 占率分别20.5%/17.1%/14.7%/9.3%/11.4%，较24年全年分别-7.0 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 重卡行业10月跟踪月报： 内销与出口共振，景气度持续向好 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年11月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 数据总览 ◼ 批发：10 月重卡批发销量 10.6 万辆，同环比分别为+60.0%/+0.6%，超我们预期。 ◼ 终端：10 月重卡终端销量 7.0 万辆，同环比分别为+56.6%/-15.9%，超我们预期。 ◼ 出口：10 月重卡出口销量 3.3 万辆，同环比分别为+43.8%/+4.8%，超我们预期。 ◼ 库存：渠道库存增加0.32万辆，当前行业总库存11.5万辆。 ◼ 展望：我们预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。 | | 25M1 | 25M2 | 25M3 | 25M4 | 25M5 | 25M6 | 25M7 | 25M8 | 25M9 | 25M10 | 2025E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Key Points - The article highlights that September sales in the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations across production, wholesale, retail, and export metrics [3][12][15] - The overall production in September reached 101,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [3][15] - Wholesale sales for September were 106,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [3][12][15] - Retail sales (insurance registrations) reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [3][12][15] - Exports totaled 31,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [3][12][15] - The industry inventory decreased by 13,000 units in September, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [3][12][31] Industry Structure - In terms of vehicle usage, logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [3][15][37] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 28.2%, with sales of 23,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.8% [3][15][38] Market Share Dynamics - In the domestic market, the market share for major manufacturers in September was as follows: Jiefang 21.8%, Dongfeng 19.4%, Heavy Truck 16.6%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 14.0% [4][54] - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 18.4%, Dongfeng 4.7%, Heavy Truck 47.7%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 19.8%, and Foton 6.5% [4][57] Engine Market - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 19.4%, with a month-on-month increase [5][63] - The terminal matching volume for Weichai in September was 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [5][69] Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV emission standards, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, while also noting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [6][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [57]. Core Views - The report highlights that September sales, including production, wholesale, retail, and exports, exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth [5][10]. - The total production in September reached 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [5]. - The wholesale volume for September was 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The terminal sales for September were 83,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [5]. - Export sales in September amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The overall inventory in September decreased by 13,000 units, with a total industry inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In September, the production, wholesale, retail, and export figures all surpassed expectations, with terminal sales showing a strong year-on-year growth of 91.5% [5][14]. - Cumulative terminal sales from January to September reached 569,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [14]. Market Structure - The report indicates that logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [23]. - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for September was led by Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Heavy Truck, with respective shares of 21.8%, 19.4%, and 16.6% [36]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the leading market share in the engine segment, with a share of 19.4% in September, showing a slight increase from the previous month [43]. - The report notes that Weichai's terminal配套量 reached 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor due to favorable policies [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the heavy truck industry showed a mixed performance in July, with significant growth in new energy trucks but a decline in natural gas trucks [1][2] - In July, the production of heavy trucks reached 81,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 17.4% [2] - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks in July were 85,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% [2] Group 2 - New energy heavy truck sales in July were 16,700 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 152% but a month-on-month decrease of 7.6%, with a penetration rate of 25.8% [1][2] - Natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%, with a penetration rate of 21.8% [1][2] - The average price difference between oil and gas in July was 2.1 yuan, which is an increase of 0.3 yuan compared to June [1][2] Group 3 - The market share of major domestic manufacturers in July showed a recovery for Dongfeng and Foton in the domestic market, while the export market saw gains for Heavy Truck and Foton [3] - The market share for Weichai in July decreased to 16.8%, while Cummins held 17.8%, indicating a competitive shift in the engine market [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV policies, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [4]

Investment Highlights - July sales: Production and wholesale meet expectations, exports exceed expectations. 1) Production: July heavy truck production was 81,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +58.4%/-17.4%; 2) Wholesale: July heavy truck wholesale sales were 85,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +45.6%/-13.3%; 3) Terminal sales: July heavy truck terminal sales were 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +38.3%/-7.2%; 4) Exports: July heavy truck export sales were 27,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +25.4%/-7.5%; 5) Inventory: July heavy truck enterprise inventory decreased by 4,000 units, and channel inventory decreased by 6,400 units. Current industry total inventory is 133,000 units, which is at a reasonable level [2][14][11]. Industry Structure - New energy heavy trucks saw a month-on-month decline, while natural gas heavy trucks continued to decline. July new energy heavy truck sales were 16,700 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +152%/-7.6%, and new energy penetration rate was 25.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +11.6/-0.1 percentage points. July natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -21.7%/+4.0%, and natural gas penetration rate was 21.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -16.7/-2.3 percentage points [14][38][41]. Market Share Dynamics - In July, Dongfeng and Foton's domestic sales share increased month-on-month, while heavy truck and Foton's export share also increased month-on-month. Terminal market share for July 2025 was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8%, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.4/+1.1/-1.9/+0.01/+3.5 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being +1.5/+0.8/-1.0/-0.8/+0.4 percentage points [3][51]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai's market share decreased month-on-month, falling to second place. In July, Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai's market shares were 16.8%, 17.8%, 15.6%, 8.9%, and 13.7%, respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -10.7/-0.8/-0.5/+1.7/+0.2 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being -1.1/+0.5/+0.5/-0.3/-0.2 percentage points [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance under the stimulus of the National IV policy throughout the year. Recommendations include China National Heavy Duty Truck A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement elasticity of FAW Jiefang and Foton [5][74].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [68]. Core Viewpoints - July sales data shows that production, wholesale, and retail volumes met expectations, while exports exceeded expectations [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales shares for Dongfeng and Foton, while Weichai's market share has declined [6][8]. - The overall industry performance in July was strong, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales figures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In July, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 85,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 45.6% and a month-on-month decline of 13.3%, aligning with expectations [4]. - Terminal sales for July were 64,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2%, also meeting expectations [4]. - Export sales for July were 27,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% and a month-on-month decline of 7.5%, surpassing expectations [4][20]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 133,000 units, with a decrease of 1,040 units in July, indicating a reasonable inventory level [21]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for terminal sales in July was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8% [6][41]. - In terms of export market share, Heavy Truck led with 46.9%, followed by Jiefang 15.9% and Dongfeng 9.9% [43]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 25.8%, while the penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks was 21.8%, both showing variations compared to previous periods [7][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [8][63].

Key Points - The article highlights that June sales in the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations in terms of production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [2][11][28] - The industry is experiencing a structural shift with significant growth in new energy heavy trucks while natural gas heavy trucks are declining [2][39] Industry Overview - **Production and Sales**: In June, heavy truck production reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 16.9% and 28.0% respectively. Wholesale sales also reached 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.1% and a month-on-month increase of 10.2%. Terminal sales were 69,000 units, up 47.0% year-on-year and 9.7% month-on-month. Exports totaled 29,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% and a month-on-month increase of 10.5% [2][10][28] - **Inventory Levels**: The total industry inventory is currently at 144,000 units, which is considered a reasonable level. Channel inventory decreased by 60 units, while enterprise inventory increased by 10 units [2][29] Structural Changes - **New Energy Trucks**: Sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 18,000 units in June, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 159% and 19.3% respectively. The penetration rate for new energy trucks is now 25.9%, up 11.2% year-on-year [2][39] - **Natural Gas Trucks**: In contrast, sales of natural gas heavy trucks fell to 13,500 units, down 16.8% year-on-year and 3.5% month-on-month. The penetration rate for natural gas trucks is 19.5%, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][39] Market Share Dynamics - **Domestic Market Share**: As of June 2025, the market shares for major domestic manufacturers are as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4%. Compared to the full year of 2024, Jiefang's share decreased by 3.9%, while Foton's increased by 3.0% [3][12] - **Export Market Share**: In terms of exports, the shares for Jiefang, Dongfeng, Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and Foton are 17.2%, 13.3%, 42.7%, 15.5%, and 7.3% respectively. Jiefang's share decreased by 1.9% compared to 2024, while Dongfeng's increased by 4.3% [3][57] Engine Market Dynamics - **Engine Market Share**: In June, the market shares for major engine manufacturers were as follows: Weichai 17.9%, Cummins 17.3%, Xichai 15.1%, Heavy Truck 9.2%, and Yuchai 13.9%. Weichai's share decreased by 9.6% compared to 2024 [4][65] - **Fuel Type Distribution**: Weichai's market share for diesel and natural gas engines is 15.4% and 49.0% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% for diesel and 10.4% for natural gas [4][72] Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV policies. Recommended stocks include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [5][78]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [62]. Core Views - June sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations, with production, wholesale, and export volumes all showing positive growth [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales for Foton, while Jiefang and Dongfeng saw an increase in export market share [6][39]. - The heavy truck segment is experiencing a significant increase in new energy vehicles, while natural gas truck sales are declining [7][28]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In June, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 37.1% and month-on-month growth of 10.2%, surpassing expectations [4][19]. - Terminal sales for June were 69,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.7%, also exceeding expectations [4][15]. - Export sales in June were 29,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 23.8% and month-on-month growth of 10.5%, again surpassing expectations [4][19]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 144,000 units, with a slight decrease in channel inventory [20]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for heavy truck manufacturers in June was as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4% [6][37]. - In the export market, the shares were: Jiefang 17.2%, Dongfeng 13.3%, Heavy Truck 42.7%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 15.5%, and Foton 7.3% [6][39]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks reached 25.9%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 159% in sales [7][28]. Engine Market Structure - Weichai maintained the largest market share in the engine segment at 17.9%, although it saw a decline compared to previous periods [8][48]. - The market shares for natural gas engines were reported as follows: Weichai 49.0%, Cummins 19.6%, and others [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [57].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the medium truck industry, focusing on sales performance and policy impacts in the Chinese market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance in April**: - Medium truck wholesale sales reached 88,000 units in April, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1]. - The upper limit sales for medium trucks were 69,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1]. - Natural gas performance was notably poor, with a significant year-on-year decline of 35% due to a narrowing oil-gas price spread [1]. 2. **Impact of National Policies**: - Despite the decline in natural gas sales, terminal sales still achieved year-on-year growth, indicating a positive response to the implementation of national policies [2]. - The implementation of national policies varied significantly across different cities within the same province, complicating the assessment of policy impacts [2]. 3. **Sales Growth in Policy-Implemented Regions**: - Regions where national policies were implemented saw a year-on-year sales growth of 27% in April, significantly outperforming the overall industry growth of 6% [3]. - Areas without policy implementation experienced a year-on-year sales decline of 13.4% [3]. 4. **Sales Trends by Region**: - Excluding Shanghai, regions with earlier policy implementation showed a 15.6% year-on-year sales growth in April [4]. - Sales growth varied between regions based on the timing of policy implementation, with early adopters showing better performance [4]. 5. **May Sales Projections**: - Projections for May suggest that newly implemented regions could see sales growth of around 15% [5]. - Areas without policy implementation are expected to continue their previous sales performance [5]. 6. **Market Research Insights**: - A survey conducted from May 12 to May 15 across 12 provinces indicated that 10 of these regions had implemented national policies, reflecting a positive outlook for sales [6][7]. - Positive feedback from regions like Anhui, Guangxi, and Sichuan indicated a doubling of orders following policy implementation, although actual delivery may take 20-30 days [7]. 7. **Sales Growth in Early May**: - From May 1 to May 20, medium truck sales in China showed a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% [8]. - Daily sales averaged over 2,000 units, compared to over 1,000 units in the same period last year [8]. 8. **Future Growth Expectations**: - The period from June to October is expected to show better year-on-year growth compared to May, with a gradual increase in sales momentum [9]. - The medium truck sector is highlighted as having strong scale effects, with potential positive impacts on sales, revenue, and profit margins as domestic demand improves [9]. 9. **Investment Opportunities**: - The current market capitalization of medium truck companies in China is around 20 billion, with stock prices at historically low levels this year, suggesting potential investment opportunities [9]. - The call also mentioned the recovery of stock prices for companies like Foton, which are expected to show significant performance improvements as negative impacts from previous issues are resolved [10]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the complexity of policy implementation across different regions and its direct impact on sales performance, emphasizing the need for careful analysis of regional data [2][3]. - The discussion also pointed out the lag between order growth and actual sales due to delivery timelines, which could affect short-term sales figures [7].