Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry showed slight growth in production, wholesale, and export in May, exceeding initial expectations [2][15][28] Volume Tracking - In May, heavy truck production reached 84,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 18.8% and 6.8% respectively [2][15] - Wholesale sales for May were 89,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [2][15] - Terminal sales totaled 63,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% [2][15] - Export sales were 26,500 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4% but a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [2][15] - The total industry inventory is currently at 144,000 units, which is considered a reasonable level [2][15] Structural Tracking - New energy heavy trucks saw significant growth, with sales of 15,000 units in May, representing a year-on-year increase of 192% [2][15] - The penetration rate for new energy trucks reached 23.8%, up 14.2% year-on-year [2][15] - Natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, down 33.6% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 22.1% [2][15] Market Share Tracking - In May, the market share for major manufacturers in terminal sales was as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.9%, Heavy Truck 16.5%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.2%, and Foton 12.9% [3][14] - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 15.1%, Dongfeng 7.6%, Heavy Truck 47.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 16.1%, and Foton 9.0% [3][14] Engine Market Tracking - Weichai maintained the highest market share at 18.4%, despite a decline from previous months [4][18] - In May, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 12,000 units, down 33.4% year-on-year [4][18] - The market share for Weichai's diesel and natural gas engines was 13.7% and 49.8% respectively [4][18] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the heavy truck sector's recovery driven by the National IV policy, projecting domestic sales to reach 700,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [5][18] - Recommended stocks include leading heavy truck manufacturers with high market share and good profit realization, specifically China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [5][18]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 数据总览： 批发： 3月重卡批发销量11.1万辆，同环比分别为-3.7%/+37%，符合我们预期。 终端： 3月重卡终端销量7.2万辆，同环比分别为-4.4%/+49.1%，符合我们预期。 出口： 3月重卡出口销量2.8万辆，同环比分别为+12.3%/+22.7%，超我们预期。 库存： 行业总库存+1.2万辆，当前行业总库存16.1万辆。 展望：我们预计25年4月重卡内销7万辆左右，同比增长5%-10%。 3 月销量：内销符合预期韧性彰显，出口超预期表现亮眼 ： 行业总量：3月产批零符合预期，出口超预期。 1）产量 ： 3月重卡产量11.6万辆，同环比分 别-0.4%/+33.7%； 2）批发： 3月重卡批发销量11.1万辆，同环比分别-3.7%/+37%； 3）上险： 3月重卡终端销量7.2万辆，同环-4.4%/+49.1%； 4）出口： 3月重卡出口销量2.8万辆，同环比 分别为+12.3%/+22.7%； 5）库存： 3月重卡企业库存+0.5万辆，渠道库存+1.2万辆。根据我们 测算，当前行业总库存16.1万辆，库存处于合理水平。 行业结构：新能源持续高增，天然气 ...