文｜犀牛娱乐 沈婉婷 编辑｜朴芳 毫无疑问，2025年对长剧来说并不好过。 行业周期的变化、流量红利的消逝、短剧的持续冲击……让长剧在过去一整年都几乎面临着震荡"下行"的焦虑，市场水位的整体缩水与超级头部作品的缺 位也已成为不可逆的事实。 在此背景下，随之而来的是发生在内容、平台、公司、演员等各个层面的剧烈洗牌，而只有那些真正回归创作本质、尊重并理解观众的作品，才能跨越不 确定性找到"上行"的空间。 变与不变之中究竟得失几何？本文将结合云合、灯塔、猫眼、德塔文等第三方平台公布的年度数据报告或榜单，详细回顾2025年长剧市场在这一年的具体 表现，也为刚到来的2026提供可供参考的一二经验及反思。 大盘再收缩，"超头"缺失 流量规模的整体收缩体现在各个维度。 根据云合数据《报告|2025年长剧集网播年度观察》，2025年上新长剧霸屏榜TOP20正片有效播放296亿，较去年同期缩减20%；其中，41部云合评级为 S+，同比减少3部。 长视频平台长剧上新数量也呈现下滑态势，2025年共上新长剧624部，同比减少31部，可看出"提质减量"大方针仍在坚定贯彻。 头部流量的缩水更加明显，要说去年还有一部热播期集均破亿的"独 ...

云包场、收官礼，线上玩法多元 剧集云包场依然是今年平台拉新的重要手段，云包场模式最早兴起于电影营销，2023年长视频平台将其引进到剧集宣发领域，在今天云包场已经演变成诸 多大剧、爆剧吸引更多路人粉加入的重要手段。 因会员收入超越广告营收成为视频平台的第一大收入，会员增长一度被长视频平台押宝，如今，各平台也陷入了会员拉新越卷，增长越难的境遇。 根据最新数据显示，腾讯视频会员数出现小幅下降，爱奇艺自去年三季度开始宣布不再公布会员数，长视频会员增长由激进整体转入到瓶颈期。这是由多 重原因导致，免费短剧抢占了更多用户时长，剧集上新数量与爆款作品整体减少，以腾讯视频为例，2024年腾讯视频接连推出《与凤行》《繁花》《玫瑰 的故事》《庆余年2》等多部S+评级的大剧，来到2025年，腾讯视频虽然播出了《折腰》《六姊妹》《许我耀眼》等多部爆款作品，但是其在市场声量上 远低于去年的作品。 不过，在这样的环境中也有视频平台会员规模能够持平甚至攀升，根据芒果TV最新披露的数据显示，其有效会员数超过7300万，芒果TV在2024年末公布 的会员数为7331万，创下历史新高，芒果TV今年的会员数可以做到与去年持平甚至更高，另外，根据B ...

Core Viewpoint - Youku, a subsidiary of Alibaba's Whale Entertainment Group, announced a new revenue-sharing model for online story films starting January 1, 2026, allowing content providers to receive 100% of membership viewing revenue and an additional 20% incentive through a "new user coefficient," leading to a total revenue share of up to 120% [1][4]. Group 1 - The introduction of the "up to 120% revenue share" policy represents a renegotiation of the revenue structure between platforms and content providers, aiming to reconstruct the ecological incentive mechanism in the long video industry, which is currently facing high investment and low returns [3][6]. - Youku's strategy breaks away from the traditional exclusive copyright monopoly, allowing non-exclusive content to enjoy a 100% base share plus a 20% new user incentive, directly linking content value to user growth [3][6]. - This initiative aligns with the regulatory guidance from the National Radio and Television Administration regarding the new medium-length content format of "online story films" and seeks to carve out a differentiated path in a competitive landscape dominated by iQIYI and Tencent Video [3][6]. Group 2 - The new revenue-sharing model addresses structural contradictions in the streaming media market, where platforms have relied on exclusive copyrights, leading to inflated content procurement costs and deteriorating ROI, while smaller producers struggle with weak bargaining power and long payment cycles [7]. - By adopting a "de-exclusive + effect-oriented" dual approach, Youku aims to reduce its content procurement risks and enhance creator engagement, with the "new user coefficient" dynamically adjusted based on 90-day membership conversion effectiveness [7]. - If successful, this model could enhance Youku's content diversity and user engagement, potentially triggering a chain reaction in the industry, compelling other platforms to follow suit with similar revenue-sharing reforms, thus accelerating the transition of the long video industry from "capital burning" to "ecological win-win" [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan Literary and Film Industry Docking Conference, held on December 7, marks a significant event in promoting the integration of literature and film in Wuhan, showcasing the city's cultural vitality and creative potential [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference is part of the 2025 Wuhan Art Life Season, which started on October 18 and aims to enhance the city's cultural identity and tourism consumption through over 60 cross-disciplinary art activities [4][5]. - The event gathered writers, artists, and representatives from major film platforms to discuss the transformation and dissemination of literature and film in Wuhan [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of connecting literature and film as a means to strengthen cultural identity and urban spirit, with insights from industry leaders on how to leverage local literary resources for film adaptation [5][7]. - Discussions focused on the potential of local IP and the need for deep content development to create unique storytelling that reflects the city's character [7][9]. Group 3: Selected Works and Collaborations - A "recommended list" of 20 literary works was announced, featuring diverse themes such as historical epics and urban stories, aimed at adapting these works into films [8][9]. - Four literary works signed agreements for adaptation with leading film platforms, indicating a shift towards large-scale, high-quality film adaptations of local literature [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Strategic collaborations were established between the Wuhan Literary and Art Federation and major film platforms to promote the deep integration of literature and film, enhancing the cultural profile of Wuhan [13].

Financial Performance - Alibaba reported a revenue increase of 4.77% year-on-year to 247.795 billion yuan for the latest fiscal quarter ending September, but Non-GAAP net profit fell by 71.65% to 10.352 billion yuan, primarily due to costs associated with the food delivery competition [1] - The entertainment segment, particularly the Whale Entertainment Group, has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters, driven by improved operational efficiency at Youku [2] Industry Comparison - In contrast, iQIYI's revenue declined by 7.8% year-on-year to 6.68 billion yuan, with a net loss of 248.9 million yuan, while Mango TV's revenue also fell by 6.58% to 3.099 billion yuan, with a net profit drop of 33.47% to 252 million yuan [3] Cost Management Strategies - Youku has focused on reducing content costs and increasing efficiency, which is essential for survival in the current market environment. The emphasis is on allocating limited funds to key projects [4][5] - Youku has established over ten original drama studios since 2023, contributing to its successful series like "The Cang Hai Chuan" and "In the Name of Law," which have significantly boosted its visibility and monetization opportunities [6][7] Future Outlook - Although Youku has entered a positive cycle, there may be pressure on revenue growth as Alibaba did not mention any increase in Youku's income in its financial report [8][9]

Core Insights - The strategic value of ecosystem construction is increasingly emphasized by long video platforms, marking a shift towards practical implementation in response to industry challenges and the need for new growth paths [1][25] - Long video platforms are leveraging their accumulated IP resources to differentiate themselves from short video platforms, focusing on ecosystem building as a strategic upgrade [1] Tencent - Tencent Video's ecosystem is built on solid IP reserves and various industry ecosystems, emphasizing the need for quality content and meaningful brand communication [2] - The platform is transitioning from single project development to a systematic approach, exemplified by the "Tail Fish Universe" project, which aims for content interlinking and user retention [2][3] - Tencent Video has successfully created "small ecosystems" that influence both online and offline markets, as seen in the synergy between online content and offline events like stand-up comedy tours [5] iQIYI - iQIYI aims to establish a long-term ecosystem, evolving from the "apple tree" concept to the "apple orchard," encompassing various business areas like video, ticketing, and gaming [9] - The company has made significant strides in IP derivatives, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales for its self-operated card business in the first half of the year [11] - iQIYI is actively exploring offline experiences, such as immersive theaters and theme parks, to enhance the value of its IP and drive local economic development [13][15] Mango TV - Mango TV's ecosystem is uniquely centered around nurturing and operating "people" as core assets, leveraging its media roots and star-making system [16] - The platform has successfully monetized its IP through merchandise, with the "Yuanren" IP generating over 100 million yuan in sales [19] - Mango TV's new strategies focus on creating personal IP studios and fostering collaboration among creators, artists, and hosts to maintain influence across various platforms [21] Youku - Youku is prioritizing content system construction, expanding its production capabilities and focusing on original series to enhance content quality [22][24] - The platform is implementing a systematic talent development approach, including various support programs for writers and directors to ensure sustainable content output [24] - Youku's strategy reflects a phased approach, currently solidifying its content foundation while preparing for future ecosystem collaboration [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Douyin has initiated a special governance campaign to address the rampant "fan circle" violations during the 15th National Games, emphasizing the need to maintain sportsmanship and a healthy online environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Governance Actions - Douyin has taken action against 11,000 videos and 333,000 comments related to sports "fan circle" violations in the past month, imposing varying degrees of penalties on 144 accounts, including comment restrictions and indefinite bans [1][2]. Types of Violations - The platform has outlined specific behaviors that will be strictly governed, including: 1. **Invasion of Privacy**: Prohibiting the exposure of athletes' private information and illegal tracking content [2]. 2. **Mutual Attacks and Insults**: Banning attacks on other athletes or coaches based on support for different individuals or unfavorable competition results [2]. 3. **Rumors and Defamation**: Prohibiting the dissemination of defamatory content that infringes on athletes' reputations [2]. 4. **Incitement of Conflict**: Banning the incitement of hostility between different athlete supporter groups and malicious reporting [2]. 5. **Irrational Support**: Prohibiting organized activities that disrupt online discourse, such as buying trending topics or forcing users into irrational support [3]. User Engagement - Douyin encourages users to engage in civil viewing of competitions and to report inappropriate content through specified channels, ensuring a collaborative effort to maintain a healthy online ecosystem [3].

Core Insights - AI search transformation is stabilizing, with significant revenue contributions from AI marketing, AI applications, and cloud services, leading to an upward revision of the company's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating valuation increases driven by AI-enhanced cloud revenue, smart driving breakeven in key regions, and overseas expansion [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 31.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 3.77 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, but better than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.63 billion yuan [2] - Core online marketing revenue decreased by 18% year-on-year due to macroeconomic impacts and internal search transformation adjustments, with AI-generated content in searches rising to 70% by the end of October 2025 [2] AI and New Business Segments - Smart cloud revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 33% year-on-year increase, while AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surged by 128% [2] - AI application revenue was 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth, and AI-native online marketing products generated 2.8 billion yuan, up 262% year-on-year [2] - The smart driving segment saw a 212% year-on-year increase in orders for "萝卜快跑," with global expansion covering 22 cities and achieving 100% fully autonomous operation in domestic cities by October 2025 [2] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in advertising business are expected due to a low base, with AI and smart cloud driving growth [2] - In the medium to long term, AI-native marketing is anticipated to initiate a second growth curve for the advertising business, while smart driving business models are expected to accelerate overseas market expansion [2]

Core Insights - The mobile internet content consumption market in China is undergoing significant changes, with short drama applications like "Hongguo Free Short Drama" and "Hema Theater" emerging as strong competitors in the industry, disrupting the long-standing stability in the online video sector [1][4] Industry Overview - As of September 2025, the total number of mobile internet users in China reached 1.269 billion, marking a 2% year-on-year growth, indicating a stable market environment [1] - The online video industry remains dominated by Tencent Video, iQIYI, and Mango TV, but there have been notable shifts in the rankings of other platforms [1][4] Short Drama Segment - "Hongguo Free Short Drama" has surpassed traditional platforms like Bilibili and Youku, ranking among the top four in terms of monthly active users [4] - "Hema Theater" has also shown impressive performance, with monthly active users exceeding 50 million, surpassing platforms such as Central Video and Migu Video [4] - The average monthly usage time for users in the online video sector exceeds 20 hours, indicating high engagement levels [4] Audience Demographics - Short dramas are expanding their audience base, with users aged 31 to 50 becoming the primary demographic, while interest from users under 30 and those from first- and second-tier cities is rapidly increasing [4] Policy Support and Market Growth - The rapid development of short dramas is supported by government policies aimed at enhancing content supply and encouraging quality micro-short dramas to be broadcast on television [7] - The micro-short drama market in China is projected to exceed 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing box office revenues from films, and is becoming a significant growth point for online audio-visual revenue [7]

Core Insights - A significant software price increase trend has emerged across various sectors in China, with average membership fees rising by 20-30% due to the dual impact of AI on value and costs [1][12][20] - Users are increasingly willing to pay for AI-enhanced software, marking a shift from a historically free-access mindset to a willingness to invest in tools that improve efficiency [1][20][21] Price Increase Overview - The price adjustments are evident in various software categories, including video editing, office collaboration, and cloud services, with notable examples such as: - Video editing software "剪映" (Jianying) raised its SVIP price from 258 yuan/year to 499 yuan/year, a 93% increase [8][20] - "腾讯会议" (Tencent Meeting) saw its membership fee increase from 25 yuan/month to 49 yuan/month, a 96% rise [10] - "WPS" introduced a new AI membership priced at approximately 930 yuan/year, while its standard membership was reduced [10][11] User Sentiment and Behavior - Despite complaints about rising costs, many users continue to renew their subscriptions, recognizing the value added by AI features [6][17] - A survey indicated that 56.1% of professionals are willing to pay for AI services, with 23.4% having already made such payments [2] AI as a Value Driver - AI functionalities are becoming central to the pricing strategies of software companies, with many integrating AI features to justify higher fees [12][20] - The operational costs associated with AI, such as server and bandwidth expenses, are significant, leading companies to pass these costs onto users [14][16] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies investing heavily in AI to create barriers to entry, while smaller firms must adapt or risk obsolescence [22] - The transition from a free to a paid model is seen as a necessary evolution for the software industry in China, moving towards a value-based pricing strategy [21][22] Financial Performance - Companies are reporting substantial revenue growth linked to their AI offerings, with "金山办公" (Kingsoft Office) seeing a 62.3% increase in revenue from its WPS 365 business [20] - "剪映" achieved a conversion rate of 3.2% for its SVIP membership, translating to significant revenue growth post-price increase [20]