投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 丙烯 基本面尚未好转 宝城期货 陈栋 当前国内丙烯期货市场面临产能持续扩张与下游需求疲软的双重压力，基本面呈现出供需失衡的特 征。在偏弱产业链逻辑主导下，丙烯期价重心稳步下移。上周丙烯期货主力合约价格一度跌破 5900 元/吨 关口，最低下探至 5851 元/吨。虽然期价展开超跌反弹行情，但上行阻力依然存在。眼下丙烯市场仍处在"投 产周期"与"需求疲软"的双重夹击之下，未来偏弱运行节奏或是主旋律。 国内丙烯供应压力较大 从供给端看，国内丙烯产能仍处于快速扩张周期。2024 年中国丙烯总产能已达 7044 万吨/年，产能利 用率仅为 76.6%，行业整体处于供过于求状态。进入 2025 年，尽管新增产能投放节奏有所放缓，但全年预 计仍有超过 500 万吨的新产能释放，产能扩张的惯性仍在延续。其中，丙烷脱氢（PDH）工艺成为扩产主 力，产能占比已升至 32.3%，主要由民营企业推动，行业集中度较低，竞争格局日趋激烈。然而，PDH 装 置普遍面临成本压力，受国际丙烷价格波动影响，多数装置处于亏损或微利状态，导致行业开工率长期徘 徊在偏低水平，形 ...

Core Insights - The Lianhong Gelun integrated project for new energy materials and biodegradable materials has achieved overall handover in Zaozhuang, Tengzhou, and is expected to be fully operational by the end of this year [1] - The project represents a significant investment of 12.5 billion yuan and covers an area of approximately 1,700 acres, with production capacities including 1.3 million tons/year of methanol-to-olefins (DMTO), 200,000 tons/year of ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA), 300,000 tons/year of propylene oxide (PO), 50,000 tons/year of polycarbonate (PPC), and 240,000 tons/year of polyether polyols (PPG) [1] - The project commenced site leveling in February 2023 and will see full construction starting in April 2024, with peak on-site personnel exceeding 12,000 [1] - The chairman of Lianhong Group emphasized the project's importance in solidifying the company's future development and aims for it to become a model of safety, innovation, and efficient operation in the industry [1] Future Plans - By the end of 2025, all projects planned under Lianhong's strategic phase 2.0 are expected to be implemented, leading to clearer business segments in new energy materials, biological materials, electronic materials, and specialty materials, with a richer product variety and enhanced scale [2]