| 2026未来产业新材料博览会 | （FINE），围绕机器人、汽车、无人机、数据中心、航空航天、AI、新能 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 源等未来产业共性需求，特设6大展区， 其中 | 轻量化高强度与可持续材料展区 | 聚焦 | | 碳纤维、高分子和改性塑料、可持续材料等 | ， | 欢迎咨 | | 询：18957804107 | | | 【DT新材料】 获 悉，12月22日， 联泓新科 公告，控股子公司 联泓格润（山东）新材料有限公司 投资建设的新能源材料和生物可降解材料一体化项 目（以下简称"联泓格润一体化项目"）主要装置近日成功投产。 该 项目总投资125亿元， 位于山东省滕州市鲁南高科技化工园区，2024年4月开工建设，2025年9月实现整体中交， 其中：30万吨/年环氧丙烷 （PO）装置和天然气制氢装置于 12 月 22 日投产，130 万吨/年甲醇制烯烃（MTO）装置和20万吨/年乙烯-醋酸乙烯共聚物（EVA）装置于12月 10日投产，24万吨/年聚醚多元醇（PPG）装置于11月5日投产 。 PO产品可为 PPG 装置和后续投产的 生物可降解材料5 万吨/年聚碳酸亚丙酯 （ ...

联泓新科公告称，其控股子公司联泓格润（山东）新材料有限公司投资建设的联泓格润一体化项目主要 装置近日成功投产。该项目2024年4月开工，2025年9月整体中交。其中，30万吨/年环氧丙烷（PO）和 天然气制氢装置、130万吨/年甲醇制烯烃（MTO）装置、20万吨/年乙烯 - 醋酸乙烯共聚物（EVA）装 置、24万吨/年聚醚多元醇（PPG）装置均一次性开车成功并产出合格产品，目前稳定运行。项目投产 后，公司产品结构更丰富，产业链优势凸显，预计对业绩产生积极影响，但产品盈利仍有不确定性。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Profit Rebalancing under Rhythm Game - Outlook for LPG & Propylene Futures Market in 2026" [1] - Report Date: December 18, 2025 - Analysts: Chen Xinchao (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020238), Zhao Shucen (Contact Person, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F03147780) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression in 2025 to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations in 2026. The propane price center is likely to remain relatively low, providing weak cost - side support for the C3 industrial chain. Meanwhile, with the slowdown of propylene capacity expansion and the continued drive from downstream sectors, the supply - demand outlook for propylene is expected to improve marginally, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of new plant construction under the low - profit background. The opportunities in the industrial chain mainly lie in periodic repairs rather than a trend reversal [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. 2025 LPG, Propylene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 LPG Market Review - The LPG market in 2025 can be divided into four stages: In the first quarter, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The spot price of the lowest deliverable product in the domestic market was around 4,800 - 4,900 CNY/ton, and the market fluctuated widely with costs. From April to May, affected by tariff policies, the external market price of crude oil and FEI market prices plummeted, and then rebounded. The domestic market was weak due to high inventory and low demand. From June to September, with the shift of the import trade center to the Middle East, the supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and the market was under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the CP price dropped, PDH profit was briefly repaired, and the chemical demand increased. The supply - demand situation improved, but the long - term supply was still loose [8][9]. 3.1.2 2025 Propylene Market Review - The propylene market in 2025 also had three stages: In the first quarter, new capacity led to an oversupply situation, and the price declined. From June to August, due to the shutdown of main production plants and maintenance of multiple devices, the supply tightened, and the price rebounded, but the sustainability was limited due to weak downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, the downstream profit was compressed, demand weakened, and the price dropped to a five - year low [11][13][14]. 3.2. 2026 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 Supply Side - In 2025, China's LPG imports remained stable, but the import structure changed significantly. After the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies in April, the import from the Middle East increased, while that from the US decreased. In 2026, the Middle East's LPG supply has an expected increase, with the main increment concentrated in the second half of the year. The US production growth is expected to slow down, but the export capacity will improve [15][18][34]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The growth of PDH capacity will further slow down in 2026, and the profit is expected to be repaired. The average operating rate of PDH is expected to increase, driving an additional propane demand of about 2 million tons. The demand for imported propane from domestic cracking plants is expected to remain weak. The propane demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to remain stable, and the growth rate of India's propane demand is expected to slow down, while Southeast Asia's demand may continue to be supported by the operation of existing cracking plants [41][44][52]. 3.2.3 LPG Summary - The supply - demand pattern of propane in 2026 shows a characteristic of "tight at the beginning and loose later, gradually becoming looser". In the first quarter, the supply is relatively tight, but better than in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition period. In the second half of the year, with the release of new capacity in the Middle East, the supply - demand pattern will become looser [57]. 3.3. 2026 Propylene Operating Logic 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2025, the propylene supply expanded rapidly, and the over - supply situation intensified. In 2026, the growth rate of propylene capacity is expected to slow down to about 9%. The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and most of the new capacity comes from integrated plants. The supply is still expected to be loose, and the focus will shift to the risks of structural and rhythm mismatches [59][67]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for propylene from major downstream sectors increased by 15%. In 2026, the nominal demand growth rate is about 11%, mainly from polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol - octanol. However, due to the over - capacity in the downstream and compressed profits, the actual demand may be less than the nominal demand [69][75]. 3.3.3 Propylene Summary - In 2025, the propylene market in Shandong was generally in a state of over - supply, with a brief tightening in the middle of the year. In 2026, the upstream and downstream production schedules of propylene show a structural characteristic of "downstream first, more downstream production throughout the year". Nationally, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the first half of the year, and the overall pattern will remain stable in the second half of the year. In Shandong, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve gradually, with a possible improvement in the second half of the year [87][89]. 3.4. Overall Summary - In 2025, the global propane supply was abundant, and the price decreased. The propylene market was in an over - supply situation, and the C3 industrial chain was under pressure. In 2026, the propane price is expected to stay low, and the supply - demand situation of propylene is expected to improve marginally. The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations [95][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic propylene futures market is facing dual pressures of continuous capacity expansion and weak downstream demand, with an imbalanced supply - demand fundamental. The price of propylene futures is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and the real improvement of the fundamentals requires the appearance of an inventory inflection point [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Situation - China's propylene production capacity is in a rapid expansion cycle. In 2024, the total production capacity reached 70.44 million tons/year with a utilization rate of 76.6%. In 2025, over 5 million tons of new capacity is expected to be released. The PDH process is the main force for expansion, but most PDH plants face cost pressures and operate at a low utilization rate. In October 2025, the output was 5.476 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 15.77%, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.0% [2] - Import profit is in a continuous inversion state, suppressing import volume. Although there is some room for export growth, the overall export volume remains stable, and domestic supply mainly depends on domestic demand [3] Inventory Situation - The port inventories in major distribution centers such as Shandong and East China are on an upward trend, and the social total inventory is estimated to be around 1.8 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is rising, and the production enterprise's in - plant inventory is also at a historical high. Downstream factories adopt a low - inventory strategy, which intensifies the upstream shipment pressure [3] Demand Situation - Although the downstream production capacity of propylene is growing, the terminal demand recovery is far below expectations, showing a "weak in peak season" situation. Downstream enterprises are mostly in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced raw materials and only maintaining rigid demand [3] - The performance of downstream products is differentiated. PP has relatively stable operating rates, but the profitability of different production routes varies greatly. Epoxy propane, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone are in losses, while acrylic acid and esters are profitable. Overall, the downstream's willingness to purchase propylene is severely suppressed [4] Macro - factor Influence - The end of the US government "shutdown" and the reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in December have weakened the macro - optimistic expectations for propylene futures. The market focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals, and the propylene futures price is more likely to be dragged down by the fundamentals [4][5]

Core Insights - The Lianhong Gelun integrated project for new energy materials and biodegradable materials has achieved overall handover in Zaozhuang, Tengzhou, and is expected to be fully operational by the end of this year [1] - The project represents a significant investment of 12.5 billion yuan and covers an area of approximately 1,700 acres, with production capacities including 1.3 million tons/year of methanol-to-olefins (DMTO), 200,000 tons/year of ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA), 300,000 tons/year of propylene oxide (PO), 50,000 tons/year of polycarbonate (PPC), and 240,000 tons/year of polyether polyols (PPG) [1] - The project commenced site leveling in February 2023 and will see full construction starting in April 2024, with peak on-site personnel exceeding 12,000 [1] - The chairman of Lianhong Group emphasized the project's importance in solidifying the company's future development and aims for it to become a model of safety, innovation, and efficient operation in the industry [1] Future Plans - By the end of 2025, all projects planned under Lianhong's strategic phase 2.0 are expected to be implemented, leading to clearer business segments in new energy materials, biological materials, electronic materials, and specialty materials, with a richer product variety and enhanced scale [2]