国盛证券固收首席分析师杨业伟表示，债市下跌主要源于股市上涨推升风险偏好，而市场对股市持续上 涨的预期升温，导致此前持有长久期债券、仓位较重的交易盘对市场调整的担忧加剧，进而出现减持， 引发债市明显回撤。 "股市上涨提升风险偏好压制债市，但债市调整空间有限。"杨业伟表示，部分债市变量不会因为股市上 涨而发生变化，一方面当前资金面将继续保持宽松；另一方面，银行配债力量不会因股市上涨而减弱， 这构成债市的基本盘，能够支撑债市稳定。 8月18日盘中，债券市场大幅下跌。国债期货方面，各期限国债期货主力合约大幅下行。Wind数据显 示，截至13:55，30年期国债期货主力合约跌1.01%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.27%，5年期、2年期 国债期货主力合约分别下跌0.18%、0.14%。 现券市场方面，银行间主要利率债收益率普遍大幅上行。Wind数据显示，截至14:00，30年期国债活跃 券25超长特别国债02收益率上行4基点至2.03%，10年期国债活跃券25附息国债11收益率上行2基点至 1.77%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly related to China and the U.S. relations. Core Points and Arguments - The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively influenced market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite, which benefits equity markets and exchange rates but may pressure the bond market. The expected impact on 10-year and 30-year treasury yields is minimal, within 1 basis point [1][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy report for Q1 has reinterpreted the reasons for pausing treasury bond transactions in January, suggesting a potential resumption of trading in Q2, particularly during the peak issuance period in May, which could favor short- to medium-term interest rates [1][5]. - The view remains bullish on the bond market in the medium term, with April treasury futures filling gaps. May and June are seen as favorable periods for buying, with aggressive investors encouraged to enter early, while conservative investors should wait for market adjustments [1][7]. - Following the recent dual rate cuts, yields on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less have decreased, and treasury futures have risen, although 30-year treasury futures have shown limited movement. The impact on the stock and bond markets is considered limited compared to previous rate cuts [1][10][11]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell significantly by over 20%. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, indicating a need for further observation of long-term effects [1][13]. - The market has priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, with potential for a new easing cycle if definitive policies are announced in the coming days. Further cuts in reserve requirements are anticipated in the second half of the year [1][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations is expected to continue affecting the market, with a cautious short-term outlook for equity markets but a long-term optimistic view, particularly for the home appliance sector [2][19]. - The recent dual rate cuts have led to a significant impact on the bond market, particularly favoring short- to medium-term bonds, while the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure [3][8]. - The relationship between policy rates and 10-year treasury yields has shown signs of deviation from historical norms, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future interest rate movements [1][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism for the bond market in Q2, with a recommendation to remain vigilant regarding potential adjustments in investment strategies [1][19].