投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 较前值变动 | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.47 | -6.11 | DR007 | 1.53 | -4.05 | | स्ट | GC001 | 1.50 | 0.50 | GC007 | 1.54 | -1.50 | | TD | SHBOR 3M | 1.56 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.35 | -0.60 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | 0.60 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.66 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.50 | 7.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了5201亿元逆回购操作,操作利率为1.4%,投标量 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a year-end balance of loaned funds at 3.887 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, while interest income from loaned funds decreased by 13.79% to 221 million yuan [1][2] - The company maintained a collateral ratio of 274.13%, down 29.29% year-on-year, with a provision for impairment at 0.15%, up 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The company has 18,611 credit accounts, with a significant portion of collateral being securities, including stocks, bonds, and funds [2][3] Group 2 - The company acquired an additional 5.01% of Beijing Siter Technology Co., Ltd., bringing its total ownership to 20.94%, and recognized goodwill of 460 million yuan [1][8] - Siter's revenue for 2022 to 2024 was 834 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 761 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 17.23 million yuan, 22.02 million yuan, and a loss of 51.11 million yuan in 2024 [1][8] - The decline in Siter's performance was attributed to a decrease in gross margin from 37.68% to 29.31% due to increased costs and a rise in negative gross margin projects [8][9] Group 3 - The company reported a year-end balance of long-term equity investments at 244 million yuan, with a loss of 19.72 million yuan recognized under the equity method [1][19] - The company added nine new long-term equity investments during the reporting period, primarily in technology and AI sectors, with a focus on synergy with its main business [19][20] - The company confirmed that the investment losses were mainly due to losses from Siter and other associated companies [20]

Group 1 - The actual controller and major shareholder of the company, Yang Wenjiang, has notified the company about the release of part of his shares from margin trading and the execution of a stock pledge repurchase transaction [1] - Yang Wenjiang transferred 7,000,000 shares from a margin trading account back to a regular securities account, which constitutes the release of margin trading [1] - As of the announcement date, Yang Wenjiang holds a total of 115,029,774 shares, representing 29.05% of the company's total share capital, with 81,612,055 shares held in the margin trading account, accounting for 70.95% of his total holdings [1] Group 2 - Yang Wenjiang has pledged 16,650,000 shares, which is 14.47% of his total holdings and 2.19% of the company's total share capital [2] - After this pledge, the cumulative pledged shares amount to 16,650,000, representing 14.47% of his total shares held [3] - The total number of shares held by Yang Wenjiang is 115,029,774, with no shares frozen, and the pledged shares account for 14.47% of his holdings [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,919 billion yuan due to 5,259 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - For the week, the PBOC executed a total of 6,522 billion yuan in reverse repos, with 20,275 billion yuan maturing, leading to a cumulative net withdrawal of 13,753 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for various tenors has been declining, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.20 basis points to 1.3130%, and the 7-day Shibor down by 3.30 basis points to 1.4230% [1] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the rate declines have slowed, with the overnight weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 down by 0.1 basis points and 1.1 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes increased significantly [4] - The overall funding environment on July 4 was described as relaxed, with overnight rates for various transactions showing a downward trend, indicating a continued loose monetary condition [8] - As of July 4, there were 114 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance volume of 124.64 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [9]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.40%, the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.14%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.03% [1] - Major interbank bond yields declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points to 1.8435%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.7110%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.6 basis points to 1.6365%, and the 2-year government bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.3575% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 985 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the full amount being successfully bid [2] - On the same day, 3,653 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,668 billion yuan [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly declined, remaining around 1.36%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate decreased by 4 basis points [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.6%, down by approximately 2 basis points from the previous day [2] - Non-bank institutions experienced a significant decrease in financing costs, indicating a continuation of a loose funding environment in the short term [2] Operational Recommendations - The funding environment remains loose at the beginning of the month, with government bond futures continuing to rebound [3] - The central bank's June monetary policy tool operations did not include government bond transactions, leading to a generally strong sentiment in the futures market, although there is a lack of momentum for a breakthrough at previous highs [3] - Future focus should be on whether funding rates can further decline and the subsequent fundamental conditions [3] - For government bond futures strategy: it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions during adjustments, with attention to profit-taking near previous highs, while monitoring economic data and funding trends [3] - For curve strategy: there is potential to consider steepening [3]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.28% to 120.740, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 109.005, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 106.205, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.01% to 102.488 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.8520%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7175%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6435%, and the 2-year government bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.3660% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 131 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 131 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2] - After the month-end, the funding conditions for banks have returned to a loose state, with overnight pledged repo rates dropping over 14 basis points to 1.36%, and seven-day pledged repo rates declining over 37 basis points [2] Operational Suggestions - As the funding conditions turn loose at the beginning of the month, the overall bond market has rebounded, but there is currently a lack of momentum to break previous highs [3] - Key points to monitor include whether funding rates can further decline, the subsequent fundamental conditions, and whether the central bank will announce government bond trading situations [3] - For government bond futures strategy, it is suggested to appropriately allocate long positions during adjustments, take profit near previous highs, and pay attention to economic data and funding trends [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw declines across all maturities, with the 7-day and 14-day rates leading the drop; specifically, the overnight Shibor fell by 5.50 basis points to 1.3670%, the 7-day Shibor decreased by 23.30 basis points to 1.5300%, and the 14-day Shibor dropped by 1.10 basis points to 1.7660% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the R001 rate plummeted by over 80 basis points, with significant increases in transaction volumes; the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 14.3 basis points and 84.6 basis points, respectively, with transaction amounts rising to 9.64 billion yuan and 222.68 billion yuan [6] - The money market rates showed a trend towards easing, with overnight rates trading around 1.40% and 7-day rates around 1.58% by the end of the day, indicating a shift to a more relaxed liquidity environment [10] Group 3 - The China Banking Research Institute reported that the net interest margin for commercial banks in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 percentage points, marking a historical low; however, the decline rate has narrowed compared to the same period in 2024 [13] - The China Fund Industry Association indicated that in May 2025, 132 new asset-backed special plans were registered, with a total new registration scale of 120.619 billion yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the first time it has announced such an operation in advance at the beginning of the month [2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management - The PBOC's announcement indicates a clear intention to release short-term liquidity, especially as the bond market shows a decline in speculative demand [2] - The liquidity pressure in June is compounded by significant maturities, including 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates, creating a substantial cash withdrawal pressure [3] - The announcement has led to a decrease in the 7-day repo rate to around 1.5%, aligning closely with the current policy rate of 1.4% [3] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - The PBOC's proactive communication enhances the transparency of monetary policy operations, which helps stabilize market expectations [3] - The current economic environment shows signs of weak recovery, with improved resilience in exports and a slowdown in the decline of the real estate sector [2] - The PBOC's management of market expectations is evolving, potentially providing solid support for stock market valuations and boosting risk appetite in capital markets [3]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1] - With 220.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the open market was 111.0 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products rose across the board, with the 7-day Shibor leading the increase [1] - Specifically, the overnight Shibor increased by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 9.50 basis points to 1.7630% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor saw a smaller increase of 1.10 basis points, reaching 1.7660% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates increased significantly, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 14.2 basis points and 83.5 basis points, respectively [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 decreased by 363.6 billion yuan and 414.6 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 also increased, with DR007 rising by 21.9 basis points to 1.9159% and R007 increasing by 8.5 basis points to 2.0056% [4] Funding Conditions - On June 30, the funding environment was tight in the morning, influenced by the quarter-end [9] - The overnight lending rates ranged from 3.50% to 3.80%, while the 7-day credit lending rate opened around 2.05% [9] - By the afternoon, the funding conditions balanced out but remained slightly tight, with overnight lending rates dropping to around 1.75% by the end of the trading day [9] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Issuance - As of June 30, there were 32 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 16.78 billion yuan [9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan after 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1][12]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 0.10 basis points to 1.3700%, the 7-day Shibor also down by 0.10 basis points to 1.6700%, while the 14-day Shibor increased by 1.40 basis points to 1.7360% [1][2][3]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 14-day rate continued to rise, with R007 and R014 rates showing an inversion. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased slightly, while DR007 and R007 saw mixed movements with DR007 down by 0.9 basis points and R007 up by 6.0 basis points [4][9]. Group 2 - The overall funding situation on June 26 was balanced, with significant credit differentiation. The rates for pledged deposits and commercial credit showed a range of 1.52% to 2.10%, indicating a slight easing in the market towards the end of the trading day [9][10]. - A total of 51 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on June 26, with an actual issuance volume of 42.74 billion yuan. The market sentiment was generally positive, although the total transaction volume remained limited due to fewer issuing institutions [10][12]. - The recent joint announcement by the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the People's Bank of China outlined a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance, aiming to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system over the next five years [12].