美联储加息降息

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黑天鹅事件出现!市场行情要转向了
大胡子说房· 2025-08-26 12:00
上周五全球资本市场出现了一个黑天鹅事件—— 美国非农就业数据公布,数据明显低于市场预期。 数据公布之后,美联储降息刺激经济的预期越来越强,市场也开始认识到老美经济被高估,全球市场马上遭遇了大跌。 然后很多人周末的时候就预测: 本周一,大A也会像其他国家的资本市场一样,遭遇暴击 但没想到的是,周一和周二两天,大A直接走出逆势行情,连续大涨了两天,指数重新站上3600点。 | 上证指数 | 3617.60 ▲ | +34.29 (+0.96%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 深证成指 | 11106.96 ▲ | +65.40 (+0.59%) | | 创业板指 | 2343.38 ▲ | +9.05 (+0.39%) | | 中证500 | 6303.23 ▲ | +41.50 (+0.66%) | 大A又红了 为什么在全球的股市都在遭遇暴击,唯独东大的股市独善其身? 我认为最主要的一个原因是: 利率差 而在利率差背后,其实也包含着一个潜在的财富机会。 美联储降息,意味着资本流向将会迎来一次大的转变,而这对东大有利。 为什么老美降息,对东大是利好? 这就涉及到一个更深入的问题了。 东大这几年为 ...
黑天鹅事件出现!市场行情要转向了
大胡子说房· 2025-08-05 13:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese market to the potential shift in capital flows due to U.S. interest rate cuts, which could favor the Chinese economy [3]. - A significant factor in China's economic struggles is identified as the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the current U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, creating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, leading to a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S., particularly during periods of robust economic growth, which attracted significant capital inflows and fueled real estate market prosperity [10]. - The shift in interest rates began around April 2022, when Chinese rates fell below U.S. rates, coinciding with a downturn in the Chinese real estate market and broader economic challenges [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article posits that the current low valuation of Chinese capital markets is largely influenced by the ongoing U.S. interest rate hike cycle and the significant interest rate differential [15]. - A potential shift to a U.S. interest rate cut could lead to a recovery in Chinese asset prices, as seen during previous rate cut cycles [17].
计划访华前,特朗普再批鲍威尔,美联储不给的东西,想从中国要?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 09:37
Group 1 - Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that the Fed's high interest rates are detrimental to the U.S. economy and seeking assistance from China [1][3] - The political strategy behind Trump's criticism is to shift blame for economic downturns onto the Federal Reserve, thereby rallying support from his voter base [3][4] - Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising inflation, which has made the Fed hesitant to lower interest rates, complicating the economic landscape [5][6] Group 2 - Trump plans to visit China with a large business delegation, similar to his previous visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure investments and orders from China [10][11] - The expectation of significant Chinese investment is seen as unrealistic given the current tensions in U.S.-China relations and the lack of trust in U.S. economic policies [13] - The U.S. government's actions have led to a loss of global confidence in the American economy, making it difficult to expect foreign assistance without policy adjustments [13]