油价徘徊在昨日收盘水平附近。 美国国债收益率走高，全线上涨1.8至4.9个基点，中端表现最弱。这与欧洲及德国的收益率持稳形成对比，也与英国长端收益率小幅下滑相反。由于美联储 内部观点差异明显，美国收益率很难像欧洲那样找到平衡。芝加哥联储的古尔斯比是最新质疑美联储中值点阵图（显示今年还将再降息两次）的官员。他表 示，不应过度提前降息，理由仅仅是"假设通胀会消退"。在他看来，劳动力市场问题不大，这与旧金山联储戴利的观点一致。后者支持上周的降息，并表示 未来或许还需要调整，但应谨慎行事。戴利指出，劳动力市场放缓但不算疲弱，经济也未面临衰退风险。正是这些言论令美债收益率在短期内企稳。 君諾金融认为今日多位美联储官员将再次发声，可能引发盘中波动。经济数据方面，包括周度初请失业金人数、耐用品订单以及房地产数据。虽然通常重要 性不高，但上周初请失业金人数骤降已引发市场关注。在数据公布前，美元与美债收益率保持稳定。今晨日本一场超长期国债（40年期）拍卖表现强劲，缓 解了市场对需求的担忧。日本收益率小幅下行，曲线趋平。亚洲股市表现分化，为欧洲开盘提供的指引有限。华尔街昨日在历史高位附近徘徊。油价保持在 前一日收盘水平附近。此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The article highlights the significance of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, resulting in a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. - The article posits that a lower interest rate in China compared to the U.S. reflects economic challenges, as lower rates often indicate reduced confidence in debt repayment capabilities [4][12]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S. until around mid-2022, when the trend reversed, coinciding with a downturn in the Chinese real estate market and economic slowdown [12][16]. - The article traces the evolution of the interest rate differential since 2005, noting that prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the rates were relatively aligned, but diverged significantly post-crisis [6][8]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy - The article asserts that U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have historically drained liquidity from global markets, adversely affecting China's economy during two major tightening cycles from 2015-2018 and 2022-2023 [13][15]. - It emphasizes that the Fed's monetary policy decisions are crucial in shaping global capital flows and, consequently, the economic conditions in China [12][16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, it could lead to a favorable environment for Chinese assets, potentially triggering a market rebound [18]. - Key indicators to watch include the reduction of the interest rate differential and the Fed's decision on interest rates, which will significantly influence market sentiment in the latter half of the year [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese market to the potential shift in capital flows due to U.S. interest rate cuts, which could favor the Chinese economy [3]. - A significant factor in China's economic struggles is identified as the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the current U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, creating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, leading to a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S., particularly during periods of robust economic growth, which attracted significant capital inflows and fueled real estate market prosperity [10]. - The shift in interest rates began around April 2022, when Chinese rates fell below U.S. rates, coinciding with a downturn in the Chinese real estate market and broader economic challenges [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article posits that the current low valuation of Chinese capital markets is largely influenced by the ongoing U.S. interest rate hike cycle and the significant interest rate differential [15]. - A potential shift to a U.S. interest rate cut could lead to a recovery in Chinese asset prices, as seen during previous rate cut cycles [17].

Group 1 - Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that the Fed's high interest rates are detrimental to the U.S. economy and seeking assistance from China [1][3] - The political strategy behind Trump's criticism is to shift blame for economic downturns onto the Federal Reserve, thereby rallying support from his voter base [3][4] - Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising inflation, which has made the Fed hesitant to lower interest rates, complicating the economic landscape [5][6] Group 2 - Trump plans to visit China with a large business delegation, similar to his previous visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure investments and orders from China [10][11] - The expectation of significant Chinese investment is seen as unrealistic given the current tensions in U.S.-China relations and the lack of trust in U.S. economic policies [13] - The U.S. government's actions have led to a loss of global confidence in the American economy, making it difficult to expect foreign assistance without policy adjustments [13]