如何理解与观测中国宏观政策目标？ 报告要点 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 以高质量发展为主题的九大治理目标体系已取代单一 GDP 指标，成为牵引中 国经济行稳致远的新航标。九个关键维度，相互贯通、有机支撑，共同构成了 中国式现代化的支柱。在这一框架下，宏观政策正从过去偏重数量和速度的粗 放型调控，转向质量效益并重的精准化治理，通过设定如研发强度、全要素生 产率、居民消费率等具体监测指标，动态校准政策工具。我们认为这标志着中 国经济治理模式已彻底告别对房地产与债务驱动的路径依赖，转而通过改革 创新增强内生动力，确保在 2035 年基本实现社会主义现代化目标。 我们通过梳理提炼出九大宏观目标，首先是发展与安全组合，两者组成了宏观 治理的总纲要。其次除了安全侧外，8 项高质量发展目标可以分为两类。第一 类以全要素生产率为核心。经济合理增速是财政、社会力量的保障，是新质生 产力的动力源泉。微观层面，要形成新科技、新消费、新市场的循环，才能将 长期经济增速和新质生产力推向正循环。要形成正向循环，就需要市场规模、 消费能力的支撑。因此强化内需和居民可支配收入的增长至关重要。第二类是 以优化经济产出、可持续发展为目标。将绿色 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of fire safety management, especially in densely populated areas like agricultural markets, and the need for comprehensive implementation of safety responsibilities [1][2] - The city aims to enhance the standardization and normalization of fire safety work, ensuring that responsibilities are clearly assigned to enterprises, local management, and supervisory departments [2] - There is a focus on integrating technology, such as IoT systems, to strengthen fire safety monitoring and quickly identify and rectify safety hazards [2] Group 2 - The city is committed to improving fire safety in high-rise buildings, recognizing them as critical areas requiring meticulous management [2] - The leadership encourages the establishment of a community-based governance system that integrates party leadership with fire safety management, mobilizing community resources to identify and address risks [2] - A proactive approach is advocated, emphasizing prevention and early detection of fire hazards to maintain control over safety [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].

Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," which outlines the direction for China's development over the next five years, impacting the lives of 1.4 billion people [1][2] - The session emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year" period as a critical phase in advancing Chinese-style modernization, linking it closely with the previous "14th Five-Year" plan [2][3] - The principle of "coordinating development and security" is highlighted as essential for economic and social development, indicating that security is a prerequisite for development [3][4] Economic Development - The session reiterates the focus on high-quality economic development, emphasizing economic construction as the central task and reform and innovation as fundamental drivers [2][3] - The plan aims to achieve a balance between qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, ensuring sustained economic growth while maintaining social stability [2][3] Financial Regulation - The "Suggestions" call for the modernization of the national governance system, which includes the establishment of a more modern financial regulatory framework to prevent systemic financial risks [5][6] - The focus will be on enhancing the financial system's ability to support high-quality development through improved regulatory practices and the promotion of various financial sectors [5][6] Social Welfare - The plan emphasizes the need for inclusive, foundational, and safety-net social welfare initiatives to address urgent public concerns and improve the quality of life for citizens [6][7] - Key strategies include promoting high-quality employment, improving income distribution, and addressing demographic challenges such as aging and declining birth rates [6][7] Government and Market Relations - The "Suggestions" advocate for a combination of effective markets and proactive government roles, aiming to create a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment [7][8] - The plan includes measures to enhance the confidence of private entrepreneurs and stimulate private investment, ensuring fair competition and protecting property rights [7][8] Implementation Challenges - The successful implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will depend on overcoming challenges such as balancing development and security, ensuring effective governance, and addressing resource allocation issues [9][10] - There is a need for improved coordination among government levels and sectors to facilitate policy execution and enhance social governance capabilities [9][10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the achievements and future directions of China's futures market as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and alignment with national strategies [1][10]. Regulatory Framework - The regulatory framework of China's futures market has been significantly enhanced during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of a comprehensive legal system that defines the market's role in serving the real economy [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued guidelines to strengthen regulation and prevent risks, ensuring a balance between innovation and systemic risk prevention [2]. Product Innovation - A total of 61 new futures and options products were launched during the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, chemicals, and metals, thereby enhancing the market's ability to serve the real economy [2]. - The innovation in product offerings has transformed futures tools from optional to essential for enterprises, providing diverse hedging options to meet various industry needs [2]. Shortcomings and Upgrading Directions - The futures market still faces challenges, including gaps in product structure, particularly in strategic areas like green electricity and carbon trading, which have yet to be fully developed [3]. - Regulatory collaboration is hindered by inefficiencies in data sharing and risk identification, which need to be improved to meet the requirements of comprehensive development and safety [3]. - The level of internationalization remains at a basic stage, with low participation from foreign investors despite the growth in the number of internationalized products [3]. Strategic Upgrades - The focus should shift from merely providing tools to empowering strategic initiatives, aligning product innovation with national priorities [4]. - A proactive risk management approach is necessary, moving from compliance-based regulation to risk prediction and early intervention [4]. - The market should transition from product openness to institutional openness, optimizing mechanisms for cross-border transactions and investor management [4]. Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize product innovation in strategic areas, particularly in supporting green and low-carbon transitions, such as the introduction of carbon trading futures [5]. - Enhancements in the financial derivatives system will include the development of foreign exchange futures and the expansion of stock index futures and options [5]. - The futures market should also focus on developing region-specific agricultural products and commodity index derivatives to meet diverse investor needs [6]. Risk Management - A modern risk management system is essential, integrating technology to enhance monitoring and response capabilities [7]. - The use of big data and AI in regulatory practices will improve the precision and efficiency of risk management [7]. - Establishing a regulatory sandbox for innovative financial products can balance innovation incentives with risk control [7]. High-Level Openness - The futures market should evolve from a one-way opening to a dual-direction integration, enhancing both inbound and outbound investment opportunities [8]. - Optimizing participation mechanisms for foreign investors and establishing cross-border clearing systems will facilitate greater international engagement [8]. - A comprehensive monitoring system for cross-border funds is necessary to ensure a balanced approach to openness and risk management [8]. Ecosystem Development - The development of the futures market should move from isolated growth to collaborative ecosystems, emphasizing technology integration and talent development [9]. - Building a digital delivery platform and enhancing transparency in transactions will strengthen market trust [9]. - There is a need for cultivating versatile talent capable of navigating the complexities of an open and innovative market environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on the economic goals set for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, particularly the target of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [2][3][6]. Economic Growth Targets - The average economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2020-2024) is projected to be 5.5%, with per capita GDP increasing from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445 in 2024, surpassing $13,000 for two consecutive years [3]. - For the 15th Five-Year Plan, a GDP annual growth rate of at least 4.5% is suggested, with potential targets set around 5% [3][4]. - The potential economic growth rate for the 15th Five-Year Plan is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3% under baseline conditions, and could rise to 5.1% to 5.8% in optimistic scenarios [3]. Strategic Environment - The development environment for the 15th Five-Year Plan is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties in international relations and domestic economic pressures [5][6]. - The emphasis on high-quality development and technological self-reliance is highlighted as a key focus for the upcoming period, indicating a shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity in economic growth [6]. Policy Implications - The upcoming full text of the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to be released by the end of October, with the final version to be approved in March 2026 [4]. - The document underscores the importance of balancing development with national security, particularly in the context of global geopolitical shifts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market has undergone significant restructuring during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on balancing development and safety while enhancing regulatory frameworks and market resilience [1][2][3]. Regulatory Framework and Market Stability - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" emphasizes the importance of a safe, transparent, and vibrant capital market, integrating safety as a primary concern [3][4]. - Over 60 supporting regulations have been implemented following the "New National Nine Articles," fundamentally restructuring the regulatory framework to ensure stable market development [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has enhanced monitoring and risk prevention mechanisms, effectively mitigating external shocks and improving investor confidence [4][5]. Risk Management and Enforcement - The CSRC has reported a significant increase in regulatory enforcement, with 2,214 administrative penalties issued during the "14th Five-Year Plan," resulting in fines totaling 41.4 billion yuan, marking a 58% increase in cases and a 30% increase in penalties compared to the previous five years [6][7]. - A comprehensive prevention and punishment system has been established to combat financial fraud and market manipulation, with a focus on dismantling fraudulent networks [7][8]. Investor Protection - Strengthening investor protection has been a key policy focus, with a comprehensive protection system being developed to enhance investor confidence and security [9][10]. - Landmark cases, such as the compensation of approximately 2.46 billion yuan to investors in the Kangmei Pharmaceutical case, highlight the effectiveness of investor protection measures [9]. Future Outlook - The capital market is expected to face unprecedented opportunities in the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a continued emphasis on balancing development and safety as a fundamental principle for sustainable growth [10][11][12]. - The integration of development and safety is crucial for enhancing market attractiveness and ensuring long-term returns for investors, ultimately supporting China's modernization efforts [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of integrating Xi Jinping's financial theories and practices from his time in Fujian into the development of the capital market, aiming for high-quality financial growth and innovation in China's unique financial development path [1][2]. Group 1 - The meeting highlighted Xi Jinping's significant contributions to financial work during his 17.5 years in Fujian, which provide essential guidance for building a strong financial nation and advancing high-quality financial development [1]. - The CSRC aims to combine the study of Xi Jinping's financial theories with the implementation of important directives related to the capital market, focusing on practical actions and a proactive work style [1][2]. Group 2 - The CSRC stresses the need to balance political and professional aspects in capital market reforms, ensuring that the Party's leadership is integrated throughout the entire process of reform and development [2]. - The focus is on optimizing mechanisms for equity and debt financing, promoting efficient resource allocation to support technological and industrial innovation while protecting the interests of small investors [2]. - The CSRC plans to advance comprehensive reforms in the capital market, particularly through the "Two Innovation Boards," enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of the A-share market [2]. - Maintaining market stability is prioritized, with efforts to establish mechanisms for regular market stabilization and risk prevention in areas such as bond defaults and private equity funds [2].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "White Paper on National Security in the New Era" marks the first comprehensive document on national security since the founding of New China, emphasizing the interrelationship between development and security, and proposing a framework for achieving high-quality development alongside high-level security [1] Group 1: Reform - The White Paper emphasizes the importance of reform in balancing development and security, highlighting that China's sustained reform efforts have been crucial in achieving rapid economic growth and long-term social stability [2] - It addresses the need for deepening institutional reforms to enhance social governance and maintain national security while adapting to new challenges [2] Group 2: Innovation - The document stresses that achieving high-level self-reliance in technology is essential for ensuring both high-quality development and security, advocating for a balanced approach to innovation and risk prevention [3] - It calls for the establishment of regulatory frameworks to support new technologies while ensuring safety and security [3] Group 3: Openness - The White Paper outlines China's commitment to expanding high-level openness, stating that an open economy is vital for attracting global resources and enhancing national security [4] - It differentiates between past integration into the international economic system and the current strategy of attracting global economic factors to strengthen ties with other countries [4] Group 4: Rule of Law - The document highlights the necessity of strengthening the rule of law, particularly in foreign-related legal frameworks, to ensure a secure environment for high-level openness and development [5] - It mentions the importance of legal measures to counteract economic coercion from other nations while maintaining normal international interactions [5]