以下文章来源于掘金Post ，作者市场观察 掘金Post . 谈常识，盘逻辑，掘真金 重点关注： ·2026年全国两会即将开幕。 ·全球能源"大动脉"骤停：霍尔木兹海峡油轮归零。 ·中信证券：涨价仍然是短期核心配置线索之一。 ·小金属重启狂飙，机构资金系统性布局。 ·加密货币大跳水，金银油蓄势待发。 01 宏观与金融 （一）回顾 1、2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报发布 2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。初步核算， 全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，比上年增长5.0%。其中，第一产业增加值93347亿元，比上年 增 长 3.9%； 第 二 产 业 增 加 值 499653 亿 元 ， 增 长 4.5%； 第 三 产 业 增 加 值 808879 亿 元 ， 增 长 5.4%。 第一产业增加值占国内生产总值比重为 6.7%，第二产业增加值比重为35.6%，第三产业增加值比 重为57.7%。 最终消费支出拉动国内生产总值增长 2.6个百分点，资本形成总额拉动国内生产总值增长0.8个百分 点，货物和服务净出口拉动国内生产总值增长1.6个百分点。 年末全国人口 1 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The rare metals and rare earth sectors led the gains, with several ETFs in these categories rising over 4%, including the Rare Metals ETF from ICBC, which increased by 4.96% [2] - Other notable performers included the Rare Metals ETFs from Jiashi and Guangfa, both up by 4.68%, and the Rare Metals ETF Fund from Huafu, which rose by 4.55% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also saw significant increases, with the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF from Tianhong up by 4.28% and the Non-Ferrous ETF from Huashan rising by 4.17% [3] Declining Sectors - The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a notable pullback, with several ETFs in this category showing declines, including the Semiconductor Equipment ETF from Guotai, which fell by 2.16% [4] - The small-cap growth style, particularly in the ChiNext and National 2000 indices, faced pressure as funds rotated out of previously popular themes into cyclical resource sectors for safety [4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF from Haifutong led trading activity with a turnover of 576.06 billion yuan, followed by the National Debt ETF from Huaxia at 168.25 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang at 137.24 billion yuan [5] - The turnover rates were high for bond ETFs, with the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang achieving a turnover rate of 156.87%, indicating strong liquidity in this segment [6] ETF Issuance - Six new ETFs are set to launch, focusing on Hong Kong Stock Connect and Sci-Tech sectors, with fundraising starting on March 2, 2026 [8] - The Cash Flow ETF from Great Wall will track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, while the Engineering Machinery ETF from Penghua will follow the China Securities Engineering Machinery Theme Index [9] - Cross-border products include the Internet ETFs from ICBC and Xingye, which will track the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [9][10]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.99 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% to 14160.93 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% to 3284.74 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 200.12 billion, a decrease of 123.7 billion from the previous day [1]. Rare Metals Sector Performance - The rare metals sector led the market gains today, driven by rising futures prices. Notable stocks included Zhongtung High-tech and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which hit the daily limit, while Xiamen Tungsten and Jinchuan Group rose over 7%, and Huayou Cobalt increased by over 5%. This momentum also boosted the Rare Metals ETF and related funds, which rose by more than 3.5% [1]. Rare Metals ETF Details - The Rare Metals ETF, which tracks the CSI Rare Metals Index, saw a rise of 3.86% today and has gained 15.70% year-to-date, with an estimated scale of 6.588 billion. Other related ETFs also showed positive performance, with the Industrial Bank Rare Metals ETF rising by 3.79% and the Rare Metals ETF Fund increasing by 3.53% [2]. Commodity Price Movements - There was a significant increase in commodity prices today, with lithium carbonate rising over 5%, nickel up over 4%, and other metals like tin and stainless steel increasing by over 2%. The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged by 9%, reaching 150,000 yuan/ton [3]. Global Rare Metals Market Trends - The global rare metals market is expected to continue its upward trend through 2026, with prices for rare earths, lithium, tungsten, cobalt, and nickel on the rise. This surge is attributed to three main factors: changes in global macroeconomic conditions, tightening supply constraints, and structural growth in demand from emerging industries [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are a key driver of the current market dynamics, with countries like Indonesia and Vietnam implementing significant restrictions on exports of nickel and rare earths, respectively. China's export controls on certain rare metals further solidify its dominant position in global supply [4][6]. On the demand side, sectors such as electric vehicles, energy storage, and advanced manufacturing are driving robust demand for rare metals, indicating a structural growth trend [5][6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.08% [1] - The chemical, building materials, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and coal sectors showed strong gains, while AI applications, computing hardware, space photovoltaics, commercial aerospace, and consumer sectors experienced adjustments [1] - In the ETF market, Japanese stocks continued to perform strongly, with Huaxia Fund's Nikkei ETF and E Fund's Nikkei 225 ETF rising by 4.85% and 3.46% respectively [1] Group 2 - The film and television sector saw significant declines, with film ETFs dropping by 5.9% and 5.8% [2] - The media sector also declined, with media ETFs falling by 2.8% [2] - The AI hardware sector showed negative performance, with the ChiNext AI ETF down by 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned as a strategic resource supporting the green economy and high-end manufacturing, with long-term supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite recent market fluctuations [1] Active Management - ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management has strategically allocated its active management products towards the non-ferrous metals sector, with the ICBC Core Opportunity Mixed Fund heavily investing in this area since Q1 2025, holding 7 out of its top 10 stocks in non-ferrous metals [1][2] - By mid-2025, the non-ferrous metals sector accounted for over half (54.40%) of the fund's stock investment value, demonstrating a sustained focus on this industry [1] - The fund manager reported significant net value growth rates of 48.91% over the past six months and 67.04% over the past year, outperforming benchmarks [2] Passive Tools - ICBC Credit Suisse offers efficient and transparent passive investment options in the non-ferrous metals sector, including a gold ETF that closely tracks domestic gold spot prices and a gold stock ETF that covers the entire gold industry chain [4][5] - The rare metals ETF focuses on rare metals processing and manufacturing, providing a distinct investment tool that emphasizes strategic metals while minimizing exposure to precious and industrial metals [4] Fee Structure - The management and custody fees for the gold ETF are among the lowest in the market at 0.2%, with similar low fees for the gold stock ETF and rare metals ETF, reflecting a commitment to cost efficiency for investors [5][6] Research and Development Strength - ICBC Credit Suisse's diversified approach in the non-ferrous metals sector showcases its robust research capabilities, with a comprehensive research system covering traditional industries and high-growth sectors like technology and healthcare [6][7] - The firm employs a platform-based, team-oriented, integrated, and multi-strategy research system to optimize product offerings and provide investors with a range of professional investment choices [7]