特斯拉明确第三代机器人进展，提升产业发展预期确定性和新技术落地预期。此前市场因为看到特斯拉 机器人部门负责人离职，所以担心特斯拉第三代机器人落地延后、未来量产预期放缓。本周特斯拉发布 第二季度财报并举办电话会，我们看到特斯拉预期第三代机器人原型机将在3 个月内完成并计划在26 年 初开始生产，因此我们认为市场对产业发展预期的确定性有望加强，同时，市场对新技术落地的预期也 有望加强。 特斯拉明确机器人进展，将加强市场对产业顺利发展预期的确定性。特斯拉Q2 财报电话会明确机器人 进展节奏，特斯拉表示第三代人形机器人Optimus 原型将在3个月内完成，并计划在26 年初开始生产， 目标未来5 年内产量达到每月10 万台。 特斯拉Q2 财报电话会也加强了机器人AI 进化的预期，特斯拉预期Robotaxi 快速发展，有望在2025 年底 前将Robotaxi 服务扩展到覆盖美国一半人口，而适用于汽车的优化AI 推理的原则也适用于Optimus。在 特斯拉公司的公开表述之下，我们认为市场将对新一代机器人顺利落地预期的确定性将加强，特斯拉产 业链内公司的机器人业务发展的确定性加强。 我们看到特斯拉财报电话会提及第三代机器 ...

Group 1: Global Market Impact - Recent Middle East conflict has significantly impacted global capital markets, with a notable rebound in US, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1] - The US dollar index has seen a rapid decline, while international crude oil prices dropped over 6% due to reduced geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The potential for ongoing volatility remains as Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the ceasefire's implementation, indicating that investors should prepare for market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Asset Valuation and Risks - US stocks are currently at historically high valuations, raising concerns about potential risks associated with overvaluation, especially after recent rebounds [2] - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with US Treasury yields showing a recent rebound after a notable decline [2] - The conflict in the Middle East has led to volatility in oil prices, with Iran threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of global oil transport [2] Group 3: Currency Trends - Following the weakening of the US dollar, non-US currencies, including the Chinese yuan, have appreciated, aligning with predictions made in December regarding market trends [3] - The anticipated rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to enhance investor confidence and profitability in the near term [3] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to central bank purchases and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with China's gold reserves reaching approximately 2,296 tons [4] - China's central bank's strategy to increase gold holdings aims to enhance the yuan's value and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4] - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are likely to continue rising, driven by increased demand and the historical performance of gold as a hedge against inflation [4] Group 5: Industrial Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3% in May, reflecting weak industrial demand and falling commodity prices [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also remained negative for three consecutive months, indicating a need for policy measures to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [5] Group 6: Robotics Industry Outlook - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, with advancements in technology and production expected to increase significantly by 2026 [6] - The demand for robots is anticipated to rise, particularly in industrial applications, with a potential shift towards consumer markets in the long term [6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the humanoid robotics sector and related investment funds to capitalize on emerging opportunities [6]

现在他们能做的更多是等待。 文 丨 郑可书 李梓楠 龚方毅 管艺雯 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 管艺雯 过去 72 小时，我们对谈了 20 多位在进出口体系各个环节的参与者，从平台到商家，从品牌到物流 商， 从工厂到他们的零部件供应商。 就在对谈期间，数字一直在变，美国对中国商品加征的关税从 54%（包括上一轮冲突加的 20%）变成 104%，昨夜又涨到 125%。 | 进口 | 国家和 | | | 4月9日 | | 4月9日 | 实际 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 足F | 地区 | 2月4日 | | (原计划) | | (变化) | 加总税率 | | 18.5% | 欧盟 | | | 20% | - | 10% | = 10% | | 15.5% | 墨西哥 | 25% | | | | | = 25%* | | 13.4% | 中国 | 两轮次 (10% + 10%) | + | 两轮次 (34% + 50%) | + | 21% | = 125% | | 12.6% | 加拿大 | 25% | | | | | ll 2 ...