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特朗普“骚操作”使投资者陷入两难:押注降息还是担忧美国信誉?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-26 11:51
Group 1 - President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Market reactions have been muted, with short-term Treasury yields slightly declining, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.936% due to expectations of forced monetary easing leading to inflation [1] - Investors are cautious about shorting the dollar or U.S. assets, as significant investments from trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea could support the dollar and U.S. stock markets [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions have undermined confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment and diminished the dollar's unique advantages, which have historically allowed the U.S. to finance its $36 trillion national debt [2] - There has been a steady outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets, with global equity funds (excluding the U.S.) receiving substantial inflows since May, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] - The dollar index has declined by 9% this year, and while U.S. stock markets have reached record highs, their gains have lagged behind other markets driven by technology and AI [2]
荷兰合作银行:散户与机构观点分化,美股面临大幅回调风险
news flash· 2025-06-11 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The report from Rabobank indicates that the U.S. stock market is at risk of a significant correction due to its performance being overly optimistic compared to economic fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent gains in the U.S. stock market have been primarily driven by retail investors, who believe that buying during price declines will yield success based on historical trends [1] - Institutional investors are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the market outlook [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has recently risen, approaching its historical high from February [1] - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is inconsistent with the recovery of the U.S. stock market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current increase in the U.S. stock market is deemed excessive relative to the underlying economic fundamentals, suggesting that a stronger correction may occur once this discrepancy is recognized [1]
美元指数失守100点关口!美联储警告→
第一财经· 2025-05-21 23:34
2025.05. 22 本文字数:1482,阅读时长大约2分钟 不过花旗集团认为,华盛顿不太可能"积极追求"疲软的美元,但随着美国与贸易伙伴达成降低关税 的协议,美元最终将下跌。 荷兰国际集团ING外汇策略主管特纳(Chris Turner)表示,七国集团会议上用于描述货币政策的措 辞极有可能保持不变,但任何调整都可能被证明是煽动性的,并打击美元。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的市场展望中积极看多美元资产,上调了对美国股市和美国国债的评级,但认 为随着美国相对于其他国家的经济增长溢价逐渐消退,以及美国与其他国家之间的债券收益率差距缩 小,美元将继续走弱。 "我们现在预测,美元指数在未来12个月内将再下跌9%,至91点,其中美 元对其避险同行欧元、日元和瑞士法郎的疲软最为明显。" 报告预测,到2026年第二季度,欧元/美 元将达到1.25,美元/日元将达到130。 美联储警告经济前景 第一财经记者汇总发现,近期多位美联储官员表达了对经济不确定性的担忧。 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 自穆迪将美国信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1以来,美元开启新一轮跌势。周三,美元指数再次失守100 关口,美联储官员对经济前景和商业情绪的谨慎言 ...
策略师:美元疲软是跨境投资者流动的征兆
news flash· 2025-05-15 11:44
Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]
美银:黄金自1月来首次出现周度资金流出
news flash· 2025-05-02 08:09
Core Insights - The article highlights that for the first time since January, gold has experienced a weekly outflow of funds [1] - According to Bank of America, U.S. equities saw an outflow of $8.9 billion, while Japanese and European equities experienced inflows [1] - The outflow from U.S. Treasuries reached $4.5 billion, marking the largest outflow since December 2023 [1]