现任主席鲍威尔任期将于明年5月结束，白宫方面也似乎进一步确认了美联储下一届主席的人选，如外界所预期，周二美国总统特朗普积极暗示凯文·哈塞特 为下任美联储主席，并将于明年年初宣布最终人选。 在美国期货市场，与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的短期收益率曲线结构的需求正在上升，SOFR与美联储利率决策的预期结果密切相关。这种押注反 映了市场预期，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔5月任期结束后，货币政策宽松力度可能会加快。 凯文·哈塞特是什么来头？ 凯文·哈塞特为白宫国家经济委员会主任，他与特朗普的紧密关系重塑了他的公共形象。作为特朗普2016年竞选团队及首任任期内的经济顾问，哈塞特是 2017年大规模减税法案的主要设计师之一，也是特朗普在贸易战中"经济民族主义"论调的重要支持者。 他常扮演的角色是：用主流经济学的语言，为特朗普的非传统政策提供理论包装。 若他执掌美联储，市场最大的担忧并非其专业能力，而是其与总统之间 超乎寻常的信任纽带，可能侵蚀货币政策的独立性根基。 他的当选对外界而言意味着可能是一名"影子美联储主席"，市场人士指出，这可能会使美联储难以有效传达货币政策信息，并在市场亟需清晰指引之际，造 成一些混乱。 ...

Group 1 - President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Market reactions have been muted, with short-term Treasury yields slightly declining, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.936% due to expectations of forced monetary easing leading to inflation [1] - Investors are cautious about shorting the dollar or U.S. assets, as significant investments from trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea could support the dollar and U.S. stock markets [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions have undermined confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment and diminished the dollar's unique advantages, which have historically allowed the U.S. to finance its $36 trillion national debt [2] - There has been a steady outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets, with global equity funds (excluding the U.S.) receiving substantial inflows since May, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] - The dollar index has declined by 9% this year, and while U.S. stock markets have reached record highs, their gains have lagged behind other markets driven by technology and AI [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rabobank indicates that the U.S. stock market is at risk of a significant correction due to its performance being overly optimistic compared to economic fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent gains in the U.S. stock market have been primarily driven by retail investors, who believe that buying during price declines will yield success based on historical trends [1] - Institutional investors are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the market outlook [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has recently risen, approaching its historical high from February [1] - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is inconsistent with the recovery of the U.S. stock market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current increase in the U.S. stock market is deemed excessive relative to the underlying economic fundamentals, suggesting that a stronger correction may occur once this discrepancy is recognized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, highlighting concerns over economic uncertainty and the impact of trade policies on market sentiment [1][5]. Group 1: G7 Meeting and Currency Policy - The G7 meeting focused on monetary policy, with a record high of 80% of investors believing the US is on an unsustainable debt path [3]. - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates that over half of the investors expect future crises to lead to deficit reduction, while 26% see quantitative easing as a potential solution [3]. - Analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the broad decline of the dollar reflects a loss of confidence in US policies, exacerbated by rising stagflation risks and implicit support for a weaker currency from the Trump administration [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook on the Dollar - Morgan Stanley has a bullish outlook on US assets, raising ratings for US stocks and bonds, but predicts a continued decline of the dollar due to diminishing economic growth premiums relative to other countries [4]. - The dollar index is forecasted to drop by 9% over the next 12 months, reaching 91 points, with significant weakness expected against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns from Federal Reserve Officials - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials express growing concerns about economic uncertainty, with deteriorating business and consumer confidence attributed to US trade policies [6][7]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic supports only one rate cut in 2025, warning that inconsistent tariff policies could disrupt US trade logistics [7]. - Despite a temporary easing of trade tensions, Wall Street perceives ongoing risks of economic recession, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating [7].

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights that for the first time since January, gold has experienced a weekly outflow of funds [1] - According to Bank of America, U.S. equities saw an outflow of $8.9 billion, while Japanese and European equities experienced inflows [1] - The outflow from U.S. Treasuries reached $4.5 billion, marking the largest outflow since December 2023 [1]