凯投宏观的Jonas Goltermann和Thomas Mathews在一份报告中称，强劲的美国经济数据与恐慌的美国金 融市场之间的脱节不太可能持续。这些经济学家称："我们预计美国股市、美国国债收益率和美元将反 弹。"他们称，最近美国国债收益率的下降很难与1月份的劳动力市场数据和通胀数据相符。前者出人意 料地强劲，而后者并不像市场反应所暗示的那么疲软。更广泛地说，美国经济似乎在2026年开局良好， 大多数数据好于普遍预期，"我们预计这种情况在未来几个月将持续下去"。他们称，通常情况下，这会 导致收益率上升，而不是下降。 ...

这一言论发生在参议院表决尚未完成之前，显然带有施压的意图。这场博弈，显然并未结束。它从国会 山蔓延到了美联储，而这场风暴也在不断扩展。2026年1月9日，美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑 事调查的消息一经传出，立刻引发了市场的巨大震动。虽然表面上看，这条新闻是关于司法的，却像是 一颗重磅炸弹，直接抛向了金融核心区。司法部给出的调查理由是，美联储华盛顿总部的翻修工程存在 规模、预算和成本上的不实陈述。对于美联储来说，它不仅仅是一个管理利率的机构，它更像是美国金 融体系的轴心。美元为何能成为世界货币，美债为何被视作安全资产，华尔街为何敢于将资金押注美国 ——这些背后的支撑，都离不开美联储的独立性与规则的稳定性。可是，当刑事调查这四个字出现在美 联储主席头上时，市场的第一反应并非是猜测案情，而是担忧规则是否还能保持稳定。特朗普的回应， 同样值得深思。2026年1月11日，他对外表示我不知道，这表面上看似是在和司法调查保持距离，避免 外界将司法行动与白宫直接挂钩；但在政治语境下，这句话实际上将这场博弈推向了更深层次的对抗。 2026年1月8日，华盛顿国会山，230票赞成，196票反对，相差的仅仅34票，足以揭开共和 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a dovish policy shift and a rate cut in December, following unexpectedly weak ADP employment data [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and President Trump has hinted at Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, with an official announcement expected early next year [3] - The demand for the short-term yield curve linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is rising, reflecting market expectations of accelerated monetary policy easing after Powell's term ends [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House National Economic Council, has a close relationship with Trump and was a key architect of the 2017 tax cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if he becomes Chair [5] - The nomination of Hassett signals Trump's strongest public criticism of the current Fed's interest rate policy, potentially weakening the long-standing "firewall" between the White House and the Fed [7] - Hassett's inclination towards growth-focused easing policies may lead to quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and market predictability [7] Group 3 - The market has not fully priced in the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, but confirmation could lead to a comprehensive reassessment based on "political risk premium" and "easing expectations" [7] - A more dovish Fed could weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage and damage its status as a global reserve currency [7] - Gold prices may rise due to expectations of monetary easing, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and financial uncertainties [7] Group 4 - The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to steepen, with short-term rates declining faster due to rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds may face selling pressure due to inflation concerns [8] - The nomination of Hassett represents a significant test of the independence of the U.S. central bank and the stability of the modern monetary financial system [10]

Group 1 - President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Market reactions have been muted, with short-term Treasury yields slightly declining, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.936% due to expectations of forced monetary easing leading to inflation [1] - Investors are cautious about shorting the dollar or U.S. assets, as significant investments from trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea could support the dollar and U.S. stock markets [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions have undermined confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment and diminished the dollar's unique advantages, which have historically allowed the U.S. to finance its $36 trillion national debt [2] - There has been a steady outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets, with global equity funds (excluding the U.S.) receiving substantial inflows since May, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] - The dollar index has declined by 9% this year, and while U.S. stock markets have reached record highs, their gains have lagged behind other markets driven by technology and AI [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rabobank indicates that the U.S. stock market is at risk of a significant correction due to its performance being overly optimistic compared to economic fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent gains in the U.S. stock market have been primarily driven by retail investors, who believe that buying during price declines will yield success based on historical trends [1] - Institutional investors are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the market outlook [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has recently risen, approaching its historical high from February [1] - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is inconsistent with the recovery of the U.S. stock market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current increase in the U.S. stock market is deemed excessive relative to the underlying economic fundamentals, suggesting that a stronger correction may occur once this discrepancy is recognized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, highlighting concerns over economic uncertainty and the impact of trade policies on market sentiment [1][5]. Group 1: G7 Meeting and Currency Policy - The G7 meeting focused on monetary policy, with a record high of 80% of investors believing the US is on an unsustainable debt path [3]. - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates that over half of the investors expect future crises to lead to deficit reduction, while 26% see quantitative easing as a potential solution [3]. - Analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the broad decline of the dollar reflects a loss of confidence in US policies, exacerbated by rising stagflation risks and implicit support for a weaker currency from the Trump administration [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook on the Dollar - Morgan Stanley has a bullish outlook on US assets, raising ratings for US stocks and bonds, but predicts a continued decline of the dollar due to diminishing economic growth premiums relative to other countries [4]. - The dollar index is forecasted to drop by 9% over the next 12 months, reaching 91 points, with significant weakness expected against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns from Federal Reserve Officials - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials express growing concerns about economic uncertainty, with deteriorating business and consumer confidence attributed to US trade policies [6][7]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic supports only one rate cut in 2025, warning that inconsistent tariff policies could disrupt US trade logistics [7]. - Despite a temporary easing of trade tensions, Wall Street perceives ongoing risks of economic recession, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating [7].

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights that for the first time since January, gold has experienced a weekly outflow of funds [1] - According to Bank of America, U.S. equities saw an outflow of $8.9 billion, while Japanese and European equities experienced inflows [1] - The outflow from U.S. Treasuries reached $4.5 billion, marking the largest outflow since December 2023 [1]