美元理财"高息陷阱"背后：汇率波动吞噬收益，普通投资者如何避坑？ 美元理财这趟车，我算是彻底上错了。去年底看着工行App上5%的年化收益率，心里直痒痒——这可 比国内定存高出一大截啊！当时美元兑人民币汇率刚过7.，我咬牙换了1万美金砸进去，心想这波稳赚 不亏。谁料半年过去，理财收益从5%跌到4%，汇率更是一路跌到7.，算下来反而亏了500多块。现在看 着账户里那点可怜巴巴的收益，肠子都悔青了。 查了些资料才发现，这波美元理财的坑早有人踩过。去年7月就有投资者吐槽，自己买的美元理财半年 没回本，收益全被汇率跌没了。今年更夸张，6月份有银行理财产品因为收益率达标直接提前终止，连 本带利还你，但算上汇率损失，实际还是亏的。专家说这叫"目标盈"产品，看着美好，其实得看运气 ——你得刚好在汇率高点买，又在利率高点卖，跟炒股似的。 现在回头想想，银行理财经理当初那句"美元资产能对冲人民币贬值风险"真是个美丽的谎言。美元指数 从年初110跌到98，跌幅超过10%，创了40年最差纪录。更扎心的是，美联储降息预期一来，美元理财 收益率也跟着跳水。年初还能看到5%的年化，现在普遍跌到4%以下，跟人民币理财的差距越来越小。 有分析 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial for global stock markets, particularly in the context of economic growth and inflation trends [1][53][54] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, with multiple cuts leading to a total reduction of 0.25% by October 2025 [4][11] - Economic growth rate is the primary long-term factor influencing interest rates, with a slowing economy typically leading to lower rates [6][54] Group 2 - Inflation rates significantly impact short-term interest rate movements, with high inflation often necessitating rate hikes to control it [6][7] - The article highlights that from 2020 to mid-2022, inflation surged to 9.1%, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement the most aggressive rate hikes in two decades [9][10] - As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. has decreased to around 3%, indicating a potential stabilization of inflation [10] Group 3 - The article discusses the correlation between interest rates and various asset classes, noting that lower rates generally lead to higher asset prices across stocks, bonds, and real estate [17][18] - Since the initiation of the rate-cutting cycle, global stock markets have shown significant gains, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the rise due to their lower valuations at the start of the cycle [15][24] - Specific performance metrics include a 54.1% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 63.46% rise in the CSI All Share Index since the rate cuts began [24] Group 4 - The article explains how interest rate changes affect the U.S. dollar and other currencies, with a decrease in U.S. rates leading to a stronger renminbi against the dollar [31][33] - The depreciation of the dollar relative to other currencies during the rate-cutting cycle has facilitated capital inflows into renminbi-denominated assets, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [36][37] Group 5 - The article addresses common questions regarding the timing of market reactions to rate cuts, indicating that markets often price in expected rate changes weeks in advance [39][40] - It also discusses the ongoing pressure on the U.S. government to manage its debt through lower interest rates, with projections indicating that rates may continue to decline [44][46] - The cyclical nature of interest rates is emphasized, with historical patterns showing alternating periods of increases and decreases over the past 10-20 years [47][52]

Group 1 - The article questions the effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and emphasizes the importance of considering what to do in case of losses rather than just focusing on profit-taking [1][4][6] - It presents a case study showing that a 10-year investment in the SSE 50 index could result in zero returns, highlighting the potential risks of long-term DCA strategies [4][10] - The probability of a 10-year DCA resulting in zero or negative returns is noted to be as high as 17%, based on historical data from the CSI 300 index [10][12] Group 2 - The article argues that DCA does not inherently improve returns and that in a consistently rising market, lump-sum investments typically yield higher average returns than DCA [11][12] - Research indicates that DCA is more suitable for volatile markets like A-shares, while lump-sum investments are preferable in stable markets like U.S. equities [12][18] - The article suggests that many investors fail to adopt a systematic asset allocation strategy, leading to confusion and suboptimal investment decisions [20]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 螺丝钉也做了一个全球股票市场的星级走势图。 在2018年、2020年、2022年，是前几次全球股票市场4-5星的低估阶段。 前两周全球股票市场大跌后，回到了4.1-4.2星上下的水平； 最近全球股票市场反弹，回到了3.9星上下。 1. 这周出差到大湾区，顺便去香港办点事情。 上次去香港还是几年前了。 相比上次去香港，电子支付普及率大幅提高。 前几年还得用八达通卡。 现在坐地铁、便利店支付、住酒店、大多数商场、以及部分餐馆，都可以用微信和支付宝直接支付了。 甚至需要临时换钱，也可以用支付宝和微信直接取现金（就是直接 ...