【解剖大盘】 在美联储助力之下，美股标普 500 和道指周四创下收盘纪录新高，在指数这一块，美股确实控制得非常 好，每次下跌之后总有办法能让它上来，而在过热的时候总会适时出利空降温。所以，除非发生危机， 不要轻言美股会走弱，都是波段性的。这其中的逻辑比较复杂，但大差不差。港股昨日已经先调了，重 磅会议也开完了，今天上涨也是必然，收盘涨 1.75%。 社融数据出来了，央行：今年前 11个月社会融资规模增量为 33.39 万亿元，人民币贷款增加 15.36 万 亿。11 月末，广义货币(M2)余额 336.99 万亿元，同比增长 8%。狭义货币(M1)余额 112.89 万亿元，同 比增长4.9%。整体看保持稳定，政府债券市核心拉动力量，不过居民信贷还是偏弱。M1和 M2 剪刀差 低于M2 增速，短期资金活跃度有待提升。 2025 年 12 月 15 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 6000亿元买断式 逆回购操作，期限为 6 个月（182天）。到年底，给市场注入流动性。接下来到年底，大方向偏向乐 观，资金会提前布局，保险和证券出现异动，如中国太保（02601）、中国人寿（02628） ...

消息面上，美股电力设备龙头GE Vernova首席执行官Scott Strazik近期表示，随着大型数据中心建设推 动电力需求上升，公司预计到年底将签署80吉瓦的联合循环燃气轮机合同。公司的燃气轮机已经卖光了 截至2028年的产能，2029年的产能也已经卖到只剩10%。另据报道称，英伟达计划于下周举办一场私人 峰会，邀请专注于解决数据中心电力问题的初创公司参加，这些问题可能会阻碍人工智能的发展。 华西证券指出，随着AI快速发展以及海外能源政策变化，全球气电景气度高企，燃气轮机需求旺盛， 国内燃气轮机技术布局领先企业有望充分受益于此轮海外需求外溢，订单或持续兑现，看好哈尔滨电 气、上海电气、东方电气等核心整机供应商。瑞银此前指，对中国电力市场需求更为乐观，预计2028年 至2030年中国电力需求将增长8%，为早前预测两倍。 智通财经APP获悉，电力设备股早盘走强，截至发稿，哈尔滨电气(01133)涨7.58%，报15.33港元；东方 电气(01072)涨6.39%，报23.32港元；上海电气(02727)涨4.71%，报4.22港元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak. The Fed's actions, such as rate - cuts and short - term bond purchases, along with various economic indicators in the US and other countries, suggest a complex economic situation. The US's policy adjustments and economic trends, including consumer K - type differentiation, employment data, and retail sales, indicate potential economic challenges. Additionally, the AI - driven investment boom and the supply - demand imbalances in some industries are also significant factors affecting the global economic landscape [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Global Economic News - The Fed will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain sufficient reserve supply, with the New York Fed planning to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days and expecting high - scale purchases in the coming months [1] - If SpaceX goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk's stake in the company could increase from $136 billion to over $625 billion [1] - Starcloud, an orbital data center startup, has achieved the first attempt to train a large - language model in space, with a satellite carrying NVIDIA's H100 GPU running an application based on Google's open - source model Gemma [1] - GE Vernova, one of the three oligarchs in the global gas turbine market, expects to sign 80 gigawatts of combined - cycle gas turbine contracts by the end of the year, and its gas turbine production capacity is almost sold out until 2029 [1] - The storage industry is facing unprecedented supply - demand tensions. DRAM shortages are expected to last until Q1 2027, with DDR demand growing 20.7% far exceeding supply growth, and NAND shortages expected to continue until Q3 2026 [1] - US AI five giants' capital expenditure in Q3 increased by 72.9% year - on - year, and except for Microsoft, the other four have negative free cash flows, with potential capital expenditure vulnerability worsening next year [1] - The former executive director of the Bank of Japan predicts that Governor Kazuo Ueda may raise interest rates up to four times before 2027, indicating a more aggressive tightening cycle [1] - There is an unprecedented surplus in crude oil supply, but Brent oil prices remain stable at $61 - 66 due to uncertainty about the effective supply from sanctioned countries. If sea - borne inventories move to land, oil prices may drop significantly [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and resumed expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline shows a consumption trend similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US issued a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows increased K - type differentiation among consumers, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families cut back [2] - ADP employment data shows that private companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit [2] - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - Morgan Stanley expects AI - driven investment to expand the credit market, with the total issuance of investment - grade bonds surging to $2.25 trillion [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3 alone [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major global assets, and the global economy is turning weak [2]

今天上午，摩尔线程再度刷屏A股，位居多个平台的人气榜首位。 当地时间12月10日，美股电力设备龙头GE Vernova涨超15%，盘中股价创历史新高。公司表示，2025财 年的营收指引为360亿美元至370亿美元，自由现金流从30亿美元—35亿美元提高至35亿美元—40亿美 元。2026财年的自由现金流将进一步提升至45亿美元—50亿美元。另外，公司将2028财年的营收指引从 450亿美元上调至520亿美元，调整后EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润）利润率也从14%提高至22%。 GE Vernova首席执行官Scott Strazik表示，随着大型数据中心建设推动电力需求上升，公司预计到年底 将签署80吉瓦的联合循环燃气轮机合同。公司的燃气轮机已经卖光了截至2028年的产能，2029年的产能 也已经卖到只剩10%。 微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉近期多次公开表示，当前人工智能产业面临的核心瓶颈并非算力过剩，而是电 力短缺。这导致公司大量AI芯片（如GPU）因缺乏足够电力供应而只能闲置在仓库中，无法投入使 用。 继昨天股价突破700元后，摩尔线程上午股价又突破800元，截至午盘，涨近17%，股价报857.7元/股， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant market movements in the electric power infrastructure and commercial aerospace sectors, driven by recent developments and investor interest. Electric Power Infrastructure Sector - The electric power infrastructure chain showed active performance, with flexible DC transmission, grid equipment, and ultra-high voltage sectors experiencing notable increases [5][9]. - Specific stocks such as Tongguang Cable and Zhongchao Holdings saw substantial gains, with Tongguang Cable rising by 19.98% [6]. - The global demand for electricity is expected to surge due to the expansion of AI data centers, which is creating a critical need for upgraded grid infrastructure [9]. - Citigroup's recent report indicates that the global electricity demand is set to expand exponentially, potentially becoming a bottleneck for AI technology development [9]. - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of a new energy system, which supports long-term opportunities in ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors [9]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector continued its upward trend, with companies like Zhenlei Technology and Keqiang Co. experiencing significant stock price increases [11]. - Recent successful satellite launches and the establishment of new aerospace companies in China are contributing to the sector's growth [12]. - The launch of the first energy engineering satellite in China marks a significant milestone, showcasing advancements in radar remote sensing technology [12].

今天上午，摩尔线程再度刷屏A股，位居多个平台的人气榜首位。 继昨天股价突破700元后，摩尔线程上午股价又突破800元，上涨16.69%，上午收盘价为857.7元，盘中股价最高涨至878.78元，最新市值为4031.4亿元。 电力基建产业链上午表现活跃，大消费、地产链回调，零售、租售同权等板块跌幅居前。截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.46%，深证成指下跌0.18%，创 业板指上涨0.3%。 今天上午，电力基建产业链表现活跃，柔性直流输电、电网设备、特高压等板块上涨。通光线缆（300265）、中超控股（002471）等个股大涨。 | | | 电网设备 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6054.33 0.43% | | | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 通光线缆 300265 | | 12.01 | 19.98% | 56.1 乙 | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 09:37 | | | | | | 汉缆股份 | | 4.06 | 10.03% | 135亿 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova has significantly raised its future performance guidance, doubled its dividend, and increased its stock buyback authorization, driven by the explosive growth of AI data centers [3][6][7]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, GE Vernova's revenue guidance is set at $36 to $37 billion, with free cash flow increased from $3 to $3.5 billion to $3.5 to $4 billion. The free cash flow for fiscal year 2026 is projected to rise further to $4.5 to $5 billion [6]. - The revenue guidance for fiscal year 2028 has been raised from $45 billion to $52 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin increasing from 14% to 22% [6]. Dividend and Buyback - The company has announced a quarterly dividend increase to $0.50 per share and raised its stock buyback plan from $6 billion to $10 billion [7]. Market Demand and Capacity - GE Vernova anticipates signing contracts for 80 gigawatts of combined cycle gas turbines by the end of the year, driven by rising electricity demand from large data center constructions [7]. - The company has sold out its gas turbine capacity until 2028, with only 10% of the 2029 capacity remaining available [8]. Industry Outlook - The CEO of GE Vernova has dismissed concerns about an "AI bubble," stating that there are no signs of demand slowing down [9]. - There is an acceleration in demand growth observed in the fourth quarter, particularly from hyperscale cloud service providers [10]. Analyst Ratings - Following the strong performance, at least six brokerages have raised their target prices for GE Vernova, with JPMorgan setting the highest target at $1,000 [10]. - Oppenheimer upgraded GE Vernova's rating to "Outperform" with a target price of $855, highlighting the company's potential as a core technology partner for AI hyperscale customers [10].