市领导华源参加会见。 陈吉宁欢迎各位国际企业家来沪参会，介绍了上海经济社会发展最新情况。他说，作为中国经济中 心城市和改革开放的前沿窗口，上海正深化建设国际经济、金融、贸易、航运和科技创新中心，努力在 推进中国式现代化中充分发挥龙头带动和示范引领作用。我们致力于营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流 营商环境，以政策举措和发展环境的长期性、稳定性、透明性、可预期性，支持中外企业深耕上海、共 享机遇。贝恩公司是全球知名的管理咨询公司，欢迎把握数字化智能化绿色化发展机遇，更好发挥专业 服务优势，在服务全球企业投资展业和支持企业走出去等方面深化合作。百威集团是所在行业的全球领 军企业，欢迎把握中国市场的超大规模优势和新的消费趋势，加快产品服务创新，把更多有影响力带动 力的品牌活动放在上海，共同打造消费热点，推动消费潜力释放，在文旅商体展融合发展中有更大作 为。当前，我们正在深入谋划"十五五"发展，希望国际企业家用好咨询会议等开放交流平台，为上海面 向未来的发展分享国际经验、多提宝贵建议。 曼尼·马瑟达、邓明潇对即将召开的第37次上海市市长国际企业家咨询会议充满期待，介绍了各自 企业在沪业务和未来发展计划，就人工智能、绿色转 ...

支持中外企业深耕上海、共享机遇。 市领导华源参加会见。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 我们致力于营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，以政策举措和发展环境的长期性、稳定性、透 明性、可预期性，支持中外企业深耕上海、共享机遇。贝恩公司是全球知名的管理咨询公司，欢迎把握 数字化智能化绿色化发展机遇，更好发挥专业服务优势，在服务全球企业投资展业和支持企业走出去等 方面深化合作。百威集团是所在行业的全球领军企业，欢迎把握中国市场的超大规模优势和新的消费趋 势，加快产品服务创新，把更多有影响力带动力的品牌活动放在上海，共同打造消费热点，推动消费潜 力释放，在文旅商体展融合发展中有更大作为。当前，我们正在深入谋划"十五五"发展，希望国际企业 家用好咨询会议等开放交流平台，为上海面向未来的发展分享国际经验、多提宝贵建议。 曼尼·马瑟达、邓明潇对即将召开的第37次上海市市长国际企业家咨询会议充满期待，介绍了各自企业 在沪业务和未来发展计划，就人工智能、绿色转型、消费趋势、夜间经济等谈了想法建议。曼尼·马瑟 达表示，上海的城市活力和蓬勃发展令人印象深刻，在科技创新、绿色转型等领域走在前列，这正是贝 恩公司未来发展的重点战略方 ...

曼尼·马瑟达、邓明潇对即将召开的第37次上海市市长国际企业家咨询会议充满期待，介绍了各自企业 在沪业务和未来发展计划，就人工智能、绿色转型、消费趋势、夜间经济等谈了想法建议。曼尼·马瑟 达表示，上海的城市活力和蓬勃发展令人印象深刻，在科技创新、绿色转型等领域走在前列，这正是贝 恩公司未来发展的重点战略方向，更坚定了深耕中国市场、上海市场的信心和决心，愿围绕人工智能、 绿色转型、企业出海等方面深化合作，提供更好专业服务。邓明潇表示，每次来到上海，就像回到家一 样亲切。看到有越来越多的各国游客在上海观光游览，充分证明这座国际大都市的巨大魅力。百威集团 将更好发挥自身优势，加大品牌活动引入和经验做法分享，为上海发展夜间经济积极建言献策，助力上 海国际消费中心城市建设。 市领导华源参加会见。 陈吉宁欢迎各位国际企业家来沪参会，介绍了上海经济社会发展最新情况。他说，作为中国经济中心城 市和改革开放的前沿窗口，上海正深化建设国际经济、金融、贸易、航运和科技创新中心，努力在推进 中国式现代化中充分发挥龙头带动和示范引领作用。 我们致力于营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，以政策举措和发展环境的长期性、稳定性、透 明性、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The HSBC 12th China Conference in Shenzhen gathered global business leaders, executives, and investors to discuss macro trends, economic landscape, and business transformations in China [1] Group 1: Investment Environment - The discussion highlighted the new situation facing Chinese stock market investments amid global market volatility, U.S. tariff uncertainties, and monetary policy [1] - Key industry hotspots include technology driven by the "DeepSeek Moment," AI investment enthusiasm, real estate recovery prospects, changing consumer trends, and structural reforms in traditional industry sectors [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The complexity of market themes includes the impact of deflation and "involution" on market profitability, with the effectiveness of policy responses and industry consolidation still under observation [1] - The "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" southbound capital flow introduces new issues regarding asset allocation, market dynamics, and capital repatriation for mainland investors [1] Group 3: Conference Insights - The roundtable discussion provided diverse perspectives and professional insights on new investment opportunities in the Chinese market [1] - The conference serves as an important opportunity for investors to understand the Chinese market and seize investment opportunities, promoting deeper integration of the Chinese market with global capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 805 million yuan, down 28.6% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Packaging Water Business - The packaging water business is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, with revenue declining 23.1% year-on-year to 5.25 billion yuan [2]. - Factors contributing to the decline include increased promotional competition, channel reform adjustments, and operational rhythm impacts from 1H24 [2]. - Despite the overall decline, the company's retail sales growth in packaging water outperformed the industry, with market share increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 19.3% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Beverage Business - Beverage revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year to 950 million yuan, driven by a focus on tea, juice, and sports drinks, and the introduction of 14 new SKUs in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is responding to consumer trends by implementing a large packaging strategy to alleviate price competition pressures [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Profitability - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.7%, primarily due to the underperformance of the packaging water business, while the beverage segment saw an improvement in gross margin [2]. - Selling expenses increased by 2.9 percentage points to 30.4% due to higher marketing and channel expenses to address intensified competition [2]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 13%, indicating pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue adjustments in product matrix and channel reforms in the second half of the year, which are seen as preparations for long-term growth [3]. - An improvement in operational conditions is anticipated during the beverage peak season, with expectations of year-on-year growth in both packaging water and beverage sales in July and August [3]. - Profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 18% and 2% to 1.09 billion yuan and 1.53 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price reduction of 29% to 12 HKD [3].

Core Viewpoint - Macy's reported better-than-expected Q2 financial performance, achieving the highest same-store sales growth in 12 quarters and raising its annual guidance [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue decreased by 2.8% year-over-year to $4.81 billion, exceeding the expected $4.76 billion [1]. - Adjusted EPS was $0.41, significantly higher than the expected $0.18 [1]. - Net profit for the quarter was $87 million, down from $150 million in the same period last year [1]. Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, the highest increase in 12 quarters, compared to an expected decline of 0.5% [1][3]. - Bloomingdale's reported a same-store sales increase of 3.6%, while Bluemercury saw a 1.2% increase [3][4]. Annual Guidance - The company raised its annual revenue and earnings guidance, now expecting net sales to reach $21.45 billion, slightly above the previous estimate of $21 billion [3]. - Adjusted diluted EPS guidance was increased to a range of $1.70 to $2.05, up from the previous range of $1.60 to $2.00 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to close approximately 150 underperforming stores by 2026 and invest in stronger departments [5]. - CEO Tony Spring has focused on enhancing the performance of Macy's stores identified with the highest growth potential [5]. Market Outlook - Despite a strong Q2 performance, the company remains cautious about consumer spending in the second half of the year, with a projected sales decline of 0.5% to 1.5% [6]. - The company has incorporated the impact of tariffs into its forecasts and is optimistic about future performance [6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers continue to show resilience, particularly in new and fashionable products [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding business areas that maintain growth momentum, such as denim, women's modern apparel, and watches [7].

Core Insights - Durian has evolved from a mere fruit to a symbol of emotional connection and social interaction among modern women, particularly in East Asia [1][3] - The consumption of durian is predominantly driven by women, who accounted for 73% of fruit spending in Eastern countries, while men only contributed 19% [1] - Social media has played a significant role in feminizing durian consumption, with young women sharing their experiences and creating social gatherings centered around this unique fruit [5][7] Consumption Trends - HSBC's 2023 report indicates that Eastern countries consume 91% of the world's durian, with female consumers being the primary drivers of this trend [3] - The loyalty and repurchase rates among female durian consumers are notably high, suggesting a strong emotional attachment to the fruit [3] - The unique characteristics of durian, including its smell, have deterred male consumers, further solidifying the fruit's association with female social circles [3][7] Social Dynamics - Durian consumption has become a means for women to express their taste and social status, as evidenced by gatherings where the fruit is shared among friends [7][9] - The act of purchasing and sharing durian is seen as a celebration of femininity and social bonding, rather than just a simple transaction [7][9] - The shift in consumer power dynamics indicates that women are increasingly dominating markets traditionally led by men, such as fruits and snacks, while men focus on sectors like automobiles and electronics [9][11] Future Implications - The changing gender roles in consumer behavior suggest that the future of durian consumption may see a gradual increase in male participation in this specific market [9] - The trend reflects a broader societal shift where women are finding self-worth and social recognition through their consumption choices, particularly with durian [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that Chinese consumers are adapting to a new normal and are no longer fixated on returning to past economic growth levels [5][6][7] - It highlights three key trends in consumer behavior that reflect changing spending patterns and priorities [4] Group 1: Consumer Adaptation - Consumers are no longer waiting for economic recovery but are actively planning their spending in a more rational and positive manner [5][6][7] - This shift in mindset is crucial as it sets the stage for understanding subsequent trends in consumer behavior [8] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Behavior Segmentation - There is a noticeable segmentation in consumer confidence and spending behavior among different demographic groups [9][10] - Rural consumers, particularly the elderly, show increased confidence due to rural revitalization policies and income growth [11] - In contrast, urban Z-generation consumers face challenges such as high youth unemployment and lower income growth expectations, leading to a decline in their confidence [12][13] - Wealthy urban elderly consumers have seen a 20% drop in confidence, likely due to asset depreciation and poor corporate performance [14] - The most pessimistic group is low-income millennials in lower-tier cities, concerned about job stability and rising living costs [15] - Understanding these segments is essential for businesses to tailor their product strategies and communication effectively [16] Group 3: Shifts in Spending Priorities - Consumers are increasingly focusing on personal achievements and value-driven spending [18] - The highest expected spending growth is in education, with a 5.7% increase, as consumers seek to enhance their skills and knowledge for future security [19] - The health sector also sees significant growth, with expected spending increases of 2.7% on health products and services, and 2.4% on medical services, reflecting a prioritization of health and quality of life [20][21][22] - Travel spending is expected to grow by 1.9%, indicating a continued desire for cultural experiences and personal enrichment [23] - Wealthy urban consumers are also willing to invest in tangible assets like home renovations and automobiles, which signify improvements in quality of life [24] - Businesses should consider how their products and services can help consumers achieve their personal goals and enhance their sense of fulfillment [25] Conclusion - The article concludes that the primary challenge for businesses is not a declining market but rather the need to adapt to the evolving consumer logic and preferences [26] - Chinese consumers are still spending, but their spending logic has shifted towards valuing real benefits and addressing specific needs [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Crocs has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 30% and losing over $1.8 billion in market value due to various challenges, including increased tariffs and changing consumer preferences [1][3]. Financial Impact - The company estimates that tariffs will cost $40 million in profits for the second half of the year and a total of $90 million for the entire year, equating to over $1 million in additional costs per day [3]. - Crocs reported a net loss of $492 million in the second quarter, largely attributed to poor financial decisions, including a $7 billion impairment charge on the recently acquired HEYDUDE brand [3]. Market Trends - There has been a notable shift in consumer preferences away from "ugly shoes" like Crocs towards traditional athletic footwear, influenced by upcoming major sporting events such as the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Olympics [3]. - Despite the overall decline, the Chinese market has shown growth, with revenue increasing over 60% last year, making it the second-largest market for Crocs [4]. Brand and Management Challenges - The brand faces issues with counterfeit products and low repurchase rates in China, which dilute brand value [4]. - Management appears to be struggling with balancing focus between different markets and brands, leading to potential missed opportunities [4]. Investment Insights - The situation serves as a reminder for investors to look beyond surface-level financial data, as changes in policy and consumer trends can quickly alter a company's fortunes [5]. - A robust investment strategy should consider the interplay of policy, brand strength, and supply chain efficiency, as deficiencies in any of these areas can lead to significant setbacks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of shopping malls in China, highlighting the shift from traditional cosmetics brands to new categories such as trendy toys, outdoor sports, and tea beverage brands, referred to as the "Four Kings" of shopping malls [6][11][22]. Group 1: Transformation of Shopping Malls - The flagship store of Innisfree, a Korean beauty brand, has been replaced by Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, symbolizing a broader trend in retail [6][8]. - The "Four Kings" now dominating mall entrances include trendy toys, outdoor sports brands, new energy vehicles, and various tea beverage brands, reflecting changing consumer preferences [8][11]. - The vacancy rate in shopping malls has approached 14% in major cities, providing an opportunity for the "Four Kings" to establish a presence [11]. Group 2: Decline of Cosmetics Brands - The number of cosmetics counters in China has decreased from 15,415 in 2020 to 11,365 in 2022, with low-end cosmetics seeing the most significant decline [11][12]. - Many cosmetics brands are shifting online due to high rental costs and changing consumer habits, with a growing emphasis on natural beauty and fitness over makeup [11][12]. Group 3: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - New energy vehicle brands have become prominent in shopping malls, with Tesla being a pioneer in this space, leading to a shift in how vehicles are marketed and sold [18][19]. - The tea beverage market is highly dynamic, with brands like Nayuki and Heytea rapidly changing positions in high-demand locations, reflecting the fast-paced nature of consumer preferences [22][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities for brands to thrive in shopping malls, as seen with the rise of domestic beauty brand Mao Geping, which has expanded significantly in physical retail [32][35]. - The article suggests that while the "Four Kings" currently dominate, the future may bring new competitors and shifts in consumer behavior that could alter the retail landscape again [36].