Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]

弘则研究 重申巨子生物成长逻辑胶原蛋白心智医美背书突 出 20250610 摘要 巨子生物旗下可复美品牌受"重组胶原蛋白含量"舆情影响，618 期间 销售增速放缓至 20%-30%，远低于 60%的目标，抖音平台销量一度腰 斩，达人直播带货受阻，投流效率显著下滑，品牌形象受损。 尽管短期受舆情冲击，但重组胶原蛋白市场长期向好，规模达 400 亿人 民币，巨子生物作为行业领军者，受益于市场细分和精细化趋势，通过 不断推出新型胶原蛋白产品（如四型、十七型）拓展应用场景，长期发 展潜力依然巨大。 可复美胶原棒作为核心单品，疫情前预期增速高达 50%，受益于量价齐 升，新客占比近 50%，主要面向一二线城市，复购率高达 70%-80%， 半年复购率 40%，高于行业平均水平，但近期受事件影响，新客转化或 受阻。 焦点面霜作为新品，上市八个月营收达 2 亿元，但因改善周期长、即时 效果不明显，复购率仅为 20%，销售主要依赖直播带货投流和大单品连 带销售，公司正积极探索其作为第二增长点的潜力。 Q&A 巨子生物近期发生了哪些舆情事件，对其销售产生了什么影响？ 2025 年 5 月 24 日，化学博士"大嘴博士"发布视频 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Juzi Bio (02367), projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.40/2.93/3.54 HKD, with corresponding PE ratios of 23/19/16 times, indicating confidence in the company's product matrix and recovery in sales growth post-public sentiment impact [1][2]. Group 1 - Juzi Holding currently holds approximately 54.26% of the company's shares and plans to increase its stake by at least 200 million HKD within 3-6 months, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [2]. - The company aims to enhance brand building, channel expansion, and regulatory approvals, focusing on increasing R&D investment for medical device products and meeting diverse market needs [2][3]. Group 2 - The company will intensify marketing efforts for its main brands and incubate new brands to elevate its skincare business, with notable products like collagen sticks and the focus cream showing promising growth [3]. - Juzi Bio plans to initiate commercialization preparations for three categories of medical devices, emphasizing market education and training to support its second growth curve [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the continued growth of leading domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a divergence in performance, with leading domestic brands achieving good growth due to their competitive pricing, differentiated products, and effective online operations [1][10]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to further catalyze growth for domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector [1][6]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics - In 2024 and Q1 2025, leading domestic brands continued to show strong growth, with significant revenue increases reported: - Molybdenum Biological: +33% revenue, +32% net profit - Giant Biological: +57% revenue, +42% net profit - Upper Beauty: +62% revenue, +69% net profit [11][13]. - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector is characterized by a mix of growth and decline among various companies, with some like Proya showing resilience in profit despite revenue slowdowns [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong single-product strategies and innovative ingredients, such as Giant Biological and Molybdenum Biological, as well as those with strong brand positioning like Mao Geping [1][6]. Personal Care - The personal care segment has seen robust performance from leading domestic brands, with notable revenue growth in Q1 2025: - Baiya: +30% - Stable Medical: +36% - Hao Yue Care: +42% [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades and channel expansion for these brands, which have outperformed OEM companies [1][6]. - The ongoing trend of online expansion and the shift towards mid-to-high-end branding remains strong, with companies like Baiya and Stable Medical showing promising developments [6][12]. Market Trends - The overall market for cosmetics in early 2025 showed a slight increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in the first four months [23]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin have seen varying performance, with Douyin showing higher growth rates in certain categories compared to Tmall [26][29]. Key Brand Performance - Key brands have demonstrated significant growth in both Tmall and Douyin platforms, with notable increases in GMV for brands like Mao Geping and Kefu Mei [33]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share from international brands due to their pricing and innovative marketing strategies [1][6].

数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《"美团闪购"品牌独立，即时零售模 式加速发展—行业周报》-2025.4.20 《医美化妆品 3 月月报：锦波生物首 个胶原蛋白填充三类械获批，关注"情 绪消费"主线下的美妆机遇—行业点 评报告》-2025.4.19 《2025 年 3 月社零同比+5.9%，期待 后续消费潜力释放—行业点评报告》 -2025.4.16 年报一季报陆续披露，关注高景气板块优质公司 商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 年报一季报陆续披露，关注高景气板块优质公司 上市公司陆续披露 2024 ...