Core Insights - The 2024 China Paper Association Annual Conference emphasized the importance of supply and demand analysis for stable industry growth and high-quality development [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has played a significant role in the paper industry since the launch of pulp futures in 2018, contributing to price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation [1] Market Performance - In 2023, pulp futures trading volume reached 130 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 55.0%, with a total transaction value of 7.2 trillion yuan, up 29.8% [1] - Daily average open interest for pulp futures was 441,000 contracts, reflecting a 32.6% year-on-year increase [1] - The total delivery volume for pulp futures in 2023 was 1.075 million tons, marking a 73.2% increase and the highest since the launch of the futures [1] Delivery Services - The SHFE expanded its delivery resources by adding two new deliverable brands in 2023, increasing the total to 14 brands across 7 countries on 4 continents [1] - The total delivery capacity reached 870,000 tons, more than quadrupling since the initial launch, facilitating greater participation from industry enterprises in risk management [1] Industry Perspectives - Experts acknowledged the stable operation and functionality of pulp futures, noting that China now accounts for over half of global pulp trade, with pricing gradually shifting from Western markets to domestic [2] - The pulp futures market is seen as maturing, providing new development opportunities and business models for the entire pulp and paper industry chain [2] Future Developments - The SHFE plans to expand the range of quality deliverable resources and optimize delivery warehouse layouts while monitoring market trends to stabilize expectations [2] - Future initiatives include the launch of futures and options for printing paper and corrugated paper, as well as advancing the internationalization of pulp futures to provide more precise risk management tools for the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Futures Exchange is actively transforming its "dual carbon" strategy into market language, facilitating the green and low-carbon transition of industries through the development of new products, price indices, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Green Products - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched green products such as casting aluminum alloy futures and options, and newsprint futures and options, contributing to the low-carbon transition of industries [2]. - The first recycled commodity, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, will officially trade in June 2025, playing a key role in the recycling of waste aluminum and significantly achieving energy conservation and emission reduction [2]. - The exchange is enhancing institutional design in delivery standards and brand certification to promote high-quality industry development and resource utilization efficiency [2]. Group 2: Price Risk Management Tools - Several entities are actively participating in and applying trading models based on casting aluminum alloy futures prices, filling a gap in the recycled metal derivatives market and providing hedging tools for recycled aluminum enterprises [2]. - The launch of newsprint futures and options in September 2025 aims to help companies manage raw material costs and product price volatility, enhancing operational resilience [3]. Group 3: Hydrogen Price Index System - The Shanghai Futures Exchange, in collaboration with other institutions, launched the "China Hydrogen Price Index System" in 2022, which serves as a reference for market monitoring and investment analysis [4]. - The "China Green Hydrogen Price Index" will be added in 2024 to further support the green and low-carbon transition of industries [4][5]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Sustainable Development - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Futures Energy have joined the United Nations Sustainable Stock Exchanges (UNSSE) initiative, enhancing international cooperation and promoting sustainable finance [6]. - This initiative aligns with the central financial work conference's emphasis on green finance and aims to improve the international influence of China's futures market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Futures Exchange is actively transforming its "dual carbon" strategy into market language, facilitating the green and low-carbon transition of industries through the development of new products and price indices [1][4]. Group 1: Development of Green Products - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched green products such as casting aluminum alloy futures and options, and newsprint futures and options, to support the low-carbon transition of industries [1][2]. - The first trading of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is set for June 2025, which plays a crucial role in recycling waste aluminum and significantly reduces energy consumption and emissions [1][2]. - The exchange emphasizes enhancing delivery standards and brand certification to promote high-quality development and resource efficiency in the aluminum industry [1]. Group 2: Market Participation and Impact - Several entities in the industry are actively engaging with the casting aluminum alloy futures pricing model, which fills a gap in the recycled metal derivatives market and provides hedging tools for recycled aluminum companies [2]. - The introduction of newsprint futures and options in September 2025 aims to manage raw material costs and price volatility, enhancing operational stability for companies in the paper industry [2]. Group 3: Hydrogen Price Index System - The "China Hydrogen Price Index System," launched in September 2022, serves as a benchmark for monitoring the hydrogen market and aids in establishing a national hydrogen trading system [3]. - The release of the "China Green Hydrogen Price Index" in September 2024 further supports the green and low-carbon transition of industries [3]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Sustainable Development - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange joined the United Nations Sustainable Stock Exchanges (UNSSE) initiative in May 2025, marking a significant step in enhancing international cooperation in green finance [4][5]. - This initiative aligns with the central government's emphasis on advancing green finance and sustainable development goals, contributing to the exchange's long-term growth and global influence [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to continue developing green products and services, focusing on market-driven approaches to promote green standards and facilitate resource allocation towards low-carbon sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is innovating green financial products to support the low-carbon transformation of traditional industries, specifically focusing on the aluminum and paper sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The SHFE launched the first domestic recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy on June 10, 2025, filling a gap in the financial derivatives market for recycled aluminum [3]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a consumption of about 6.73 million tons in 2024 [2]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are only 3.6% of those from traditional electrolytic aluminum, aligning with the goal of producing over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum by 2027 [2]. - As of September 19, 2025, the trading volume for casting aluminum alloy futures reached 361,200 contracts, with a total transaction value of 71.52 billion yuan, indicating strong market engagement [3]. - Major companies in the aluminum sector are actively using the casting aluminum alloy futures for hedging, improving resource utilization and risk management [4]. Group 2: Paper Industry - The SHFE introduced the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, specifically for offset printing paper, on September 10, 2025, to facilitate the green transformation of the paper industry [5][6]. - In 2024, China is projected to produce 9.48 million tons of offset printing paper, with a market size nearing 50 billion yuan [6]. - The introduction of offset printing paper futures allows upstream paper manufacturers to hedge against price fluctuations in raw materials, thus enhancing product quality and reducing price wars [6][7]. - The contract design for offset printing paper incorporates green principles, prioritizing "green factories" for delivery and setting strict quality standards to promote environmental sustainability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The SHFE aims to continue developing green financial products and optimizing services to support the low-carbon transition of industries, positioning these tools as stabilizers and accelerators for high-quality economic development [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is actively promoting green transformation in industries through the development of green financial products and standards, aligning with China's dual carbon goals to combat climate change and enhance ecological protection [1][6]. Group 1: Green Product Development - SHFE has launched various green derivatives, including aluminum alloy futures and options, which significantly reduce carbon emissions compared to traditional methods, aligning with national recycling and sustainability goals [2][3]. - The introduction of the world's first cultural paper financial derivatives, specifically for offset printing paper, aims to promote the green transformation of the paper industry by prioritizing certified green factories [2][3]. Group 2: Energy Sector Initiatives - SHFE is accelerating the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) futures and options, recognizing LNG as a crucial low-carbon energy source that can help manage price volatility and promote clean energy adoption [3]. - The exchange has also established a hydrogen price index system to support the hydrogen energy sector, with plans to introduce a green hydrogen price index in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Shipping Industry Support - In response to global shipping industry's green transition, SHFE has launched low-sulfur fuel oil futures to provide risk management tools and support the clean energy transformation of the shipping sector [4][5]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil futures have gained traction and are becoming a key pricing reference for related products in both domestic and international markets [5]. Group 4: International Collaboration - SHFE has joined the United Nations Sustainable Stock Exchanges (UNSSE) initiative, enhancing its international influence in green finance and aligning with global best practices for sustainable development [6]. - The exchange aims to continue improving its green product offerings and services, leveraging market mechanisms to guide resources towards low-carbon industries and support high-quality economic development [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is experiencing robust growth with an increasing variety of products and a more comprehensive system, covering major sectors of the national economy and making progress in areas like international openness and national development [1][3][4] - There is a need for further improvement in areas such as green products, technology-related derivatives, and foreign exchange futures compared to mature overseas markets [1][7] Product Innovation - As of September 12, 2025, there are 157 listed futures and options in China, covering various sectors including agriculture, metals, energy, chemicals, construction materials, shipping, and finance [1] - Recent innovations include the launch of the world's first cultural paper financial derivative, the futures and options for coated printing paper, and the first recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved several new products, including monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, marking a significant expansion in the domestic commodity futures market [2] Strategic Development - The introduction of strategic futures products enhances the market's ability to serve national development strategies, helping enterprises hedge market risks and stabilize operations [3][4] - The futures market is increasingly integrated into national development goals, contributing to food security and rural revitalization through innovative models like "insurance + futures" [3][4] Market Structure and Internationalization - The structure of the futures market is becoming more diverse, effectively meeting the personalized needs of various enterprises, especially in the context of complex macro trade situations [4][6] - The number of futures and options available to qualified foreign investors has expanded to over 90, indicating a growing internationalization of the market [3][6] Policy and Regulatory Support - The rapid development of the futures market is supported by strong policy backing and precise guidance, with the State Council's 2024 opinions providing a framework for high-quality development [6][7] - The market's depth and breadth are continuously improving, with increasing recognition among enterprises of the importance of using futures tools for risk management [6] Future Directions - There is a call for the introduction of futures products that align with high-quality economic transformation, particularly in green energy, carbon emissions, and digital economy sectors [9][10] - The market is expected to play a crucial role in managing financial risks and supporting the internationalization of the RMB, with hopes for the quick launch of RMB foreign exchange futures [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is experiencing robust growth, with an increasing variety of products and a more comprehensive system, covering major sectors of the national economy [1][2] - There is a need for further development in areas such as green products, technology-related derivatives, and foreign exchange futures compared to mature overseas markets [1][6] - The introduction of innovative futures products is essential for supporting high-quality economic transformation and stabilizing industrial chains [1][3] Product Innovation - As of September 12, 2025, there are 157 listed futures and options products in China, spanning agriculture, metals, energy, chemicals, construction materials, shipping, and finance [1] - Recent innovations include the launch of the world's first cultural paper financial derivatives and the first futures and options for recycled aluminum alloy [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved several new products, including monthly average price futures for various plastics, indicating a growing diversity in the futures market [2] Strategic Development - The launch of strategic futures products enhances the market's ability to support national development strategies, helping enterprises hedge market risks and stabilize operations [3][4] - The futures market is increasingly integrated into national development goals, contributing to food security and rural revitalization through innovative models like "insurance + futures" [3][4] - The market's openness has expanded, with over 90 futures and options products available for qualified foreign investors [3] Policy and Regulatory Support - The rapid development of the futures market is supported by strong policy backing and collaboration among various stakeholders [4][6] - The State Council's guidelines emphasize the core functions of the futures market in serving the real economy and national strategies, providing a framework for innovation [4][6] - The recognition of the importance of futures tools for risk management among enterprises is growing, laying a solid foundation for further innovation [4] Internationalization and Global Trends - The internationalization of the futures market is progressing, with an increasing number of products covering energy, metals, and agriculture [6] - The cancellation of foreign ownership limits for futures companies has allowed for greater foreign investment [6] - Observing global trends, there is a push for the development of green and technology-related futures products in China, inspired by successful models in overseas markets [7][8] Future Directions - Recommendations for future product development include focusing on green electricity futures, carbon emission rights futures, and derivatives related to new energy and high-value products [8][9] - The need for a more diverse range of risk management tools is emphasized, particularly in light of the evolving macroeconomic landscape [4][6] - The importance of balancing innovation with regulatory oversight is highlighted, ensuring that the futures market can effectively manage risks while fostering growth [9]

Group 1 - The "Vibrant China Research Tour" event highlighted the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) as it showcased new futures and options products, including printing paper futures and options, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options, indicating the expanding influence of "Shanghai pricing" [1] - SHFE has listed a total of 25 futures and 18 options products, with five futures and oil options directly open to foreign investors, allowing qualified foreign investors to participate in trading for 32 futures and options products [6] - The SHFE has established a comprehensive and effective trading operation, self-regulation, and risk control system, supporting a safe and efficient market operation, and has launched various brand projects to enhance market services [7] Group 2 - The number of overseas clients at SHFE has been steadily increasing, with growing participation and enhanced international recognition, as evidenced by the listing of Shanghai rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange [7] - In 2024, SHFE achieved a trading volume of 2.401 billion contracts and a transaction value of 233.95 trillion yuan, maintaining the highest trading amount among domestic exchanges for five consecutive years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of futures and options for newsprint paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in enhancing risk management tools for the paper industry and promoting sustainable development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Significance - The paper industry is a crucial part of China's light industry, with a production and consumption volume of 136 million tons in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer and consumer for 16 consecutive years [1]. - The introduction of newsprint paper futures and options is timely, providing essential financial instruments for upstream and downstream enterprises, thereby strengthening the industry's risk resilience [1][2]. - The new products are expected to stimulate green transformation in the paper industry and enhance international competitiveness, contributing to the establishment of "China prices" and attracting global resources [1][2]. Group 2: Market Development - The launch of these new futures and options is part of a broader strategy to enrich and improve the multi-layered derivative system in the market, catering to the refined and diversified needs of enterprises [2]. - The futures market has demonstrated effective risk management capabilities during market volatility, indicating a mature investor structure and strong contract continuity [2]. - The addition of newsprint paper and pulp options will further enhance the risk management framework within the paper industry, providing companies with more flexible hedging tools [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The introduction of newsprint paper futures and options is seen as a milestone in supporting the green and low-carbon transformation of the paper industry, enhancing the risk management level across the pulp and paper supply chain [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to continuously expand its product offerings and improve efficiency, thereby supporting high-quality development in the real economy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Considering the export downside risk and the weakening fiscal contribution, it is expected that the downward pressure on the domestic economy may increase after September, and the fundamental demand for monetary easing will rise. If the Fed cuts interest rates again, the domestic monetary policy may follow [23]. - In the context of the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, funds are gradually flowing from deposits to the wealth - management market. It is expected that the scale of listed companies' deposit - to - wealth - management conversion will reach hundreds of billions in the next year. Overseas wealth management has also become an important direction for corporate asset allocation [24]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees mainly affect public bond funds and the bond market through the increase in redemption fees. Bond ETFs may see further incremental capital inflows [24]. - The core driving forces for the market in the fourth quarter may come from three aspects: the continuous decline in the risk - free interest rate, the "anti - involution" policy and the expected improvement of PPI data, and technological breakthroughs and policy support in the technology field [30]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 and M2 accelerating compared to the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline of PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][11]. - In August 2025, exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both showing a slowdown compared to the previous month [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [2]. - Five futures and options products were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 10, and some products were included in the QFII trading scope [2]. - Canada is reviewing the current tariff rates on imported products from China and may relax the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 8% [3]. Metals - Since late August, the international gold price has risen, with a year - to - date increase approaching 40%. The recent jump is related to the market's "front - running" of the Fed's September rate cut and the rise in long - term bond yields in many countries [4][5]. - On September 9, the inventories of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and nickel inventories increasing, and lead and zinc inventories decreasing [5]. - Many banks have adjusted the starting amount of gold accumulation due to the large fluctuations in the gold price [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China has made major breakthroughs in oil, gas, and uranium exploration, with oil production stable at 200 million tons and natural gas production exceeding 240 billion cubic meters [6]. - Anhui Province publicly auctioned 5 strategic mineral exploration rights, with a total exploration area of 16.9256 square kilometers [6]. - As of September 10, the prices of black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate have increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On September 10, the main contract of US crude oil rose, driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to limit production increase [7][8]. - Six departments regulated the photovoltaic industry, and the industry association called for self - discipline [8]. - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports increased, and the oil exports from its western ports in September were raised by 11% [8]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil reached the highest level since 2023 [8]. Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation [9]. - In August, US coffee imports from Brazil decreased significantly, and Germany became the largest overseas market for Brazilian coffee [9]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year [9]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On September 10, the central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan [10]. Important News - In August, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed [11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to do a good job in the second - half economic work and promote the domestic and international dual - cycle [11]. - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, promote consumption, and encourage private investment [12]. - China will expand high - level opening - up and promote the high - quality development of service trade [12][13]. - The market regulator solicited opinions on measures to promote the development of the private economy [13]. - Many bond funds' net values declined, and the redemption pressure increased [14]. - The auction of small and medium - sized bank equity was cold, and some government investment funds had problems such as idle funds [14]. - Some local governments and individuals are prepaying loans to save on interest [15]. - Japan will conduct a 5 - year treasury bond auction, and investors expect moderate demand [15]. - The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing support for the Fed to cut interest rates [16]. - Some companies had bond - related events, and some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [16]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, with yields of major interest - rate bonds rising and bond futures falling [17]. - The money market interest rates mostly rose, and the yields of some bonds were determined through auctions [18][19][20]. - European and US bond yields mostly declined [20][21]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index rose slightly [22]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income expects the domestic economy to face greater downward pressure after September and believes that the domestic monetary policy may follow the Fed's rate cut [23]. - CITIC Securities expects the scale of listed companies' deposit - to - wealth - management conversion to reach hundreds of billions in the next year [24]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the new regulations on public fund sales fees will increase the trading cost of public bond funds, and bond ETFs may attract more capital [24]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzes the capital situation, government bond payment, and inter - bank bond market leverage [24]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income also provides information on the disclosure of special new special bonds [25]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that the yields and credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have declined [26]. Today's Reminders - On September 11, 235 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will be paid, and 200 bonds will pay principal and interest [26][27]. 4. Stock Market News - The A - share market rebounded with reduced trading volume, with the AI industry chain rising and some sectors falling. The trading volume reached a one - month low [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.01%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$75.66 billion [28]. - A person suggested that Hong Kong should cut or cancel the stock stamp duty in three stages and set up differentiated listing standards for the GEM [28]. - The margin trading business is booming, and a securities firm increased its credit business scale [29]. - Multiple public funds held autumn strategy meetings, believing that the market may be driven by factors such as the decline in the risk - free interest rate, policy promotion, and technological breakthroughs [30].