从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 今日铜价企稳回升，持仓量持续下降。宏观层面，今日国内宏观 氛围明显回暖，权益和商品市场普涨。沪铜和伦铜在特朗普表示要 征收 50%进口关税后明显承压。我们认为这很可能是市场担忧美国对 铜的关税即将落地，届时美国进口窗口关闭，未来一段时间非美地 区铜的需求或下降，进而导致伦铜和沪铜下跌。技术上，沪铜和伦 铜在 6 月价格中枢有较强的支撑。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行明显，今日主力期价围绕 2.07 万窄幅震荡。今 日国内宏观氛围明显回暖，权益和商品市场普涨。黑色和减产板块有 明显涨幅，利好铝价。产业层面，7 月 10 日 M ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market is set to introduce multiple new varieties this year to meet the diverse and refined risk management needs of enterprises, aiding them in hedging against risks [1] - The internationalization of China's futures market has been enhanced, with 16 new tradable futures and options products available for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII and RQFII) starting June 20 [1] - As of now, the number of tradable products for qualified foreign investors in China's futures market has increased to 91 [1] Group 2 - New futures products are being accelerated, including cash-settled monthly average futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene (PP) announced by Dalian Commodity Exchange [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is preparing to launch futures and options contracts for propylene, which is the largest olefin product in China [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange aims to develop a green futures trading platform, focusing on new energy and materials, with plans to introduce platinum and palladium by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The trading activity in China's futures market has remained robust, with a cumulative trading volume of 3.337 billion contracts and a trading value of 28.693 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% respectively [3]

"上期所从业人员强化班"走进立中集团 他表示，未来再生铝行业发展有两大推动因素：一方面是政策推动，"十五五"期间，再生铝产量持续增 加，对铝工业材料的补充替代作用将进一步显现；另一方面是需求推动，在"双碳"目标、成本控制及技 术进步驱动下，再生低碳铝合金材料需求持续攀升。不过，需要注意的是，目前再生铝产能较多，应当 减少同质化竞争，寻求差异化发展。 对于铸造铝合金新品种的研究框架，中信建投期货工业品首席分析师江露表示，尽管整个铝产业链终端 构成相对丰富，但再生铸造铝合金的终端主要集中在汽车等交运板块，上游废铝原料也主要从交运板块 报废产生，这一点与铅产业链里的再生铅极其相似。终端消费的季节性需求强弱会变相影响原料端供应 强弱，从而影响合金价格。因此，厘清上下游供需情况与再生铝合金本身供需情况同等重要。 从原料来源区分，铝产业链可分为原铝和再生铝两条主线。目前原铝条线在国内期货市场已有氧化铝期 货（AO）及电解铝期货（AL）两大品种。不过，该条线受"双碳"政策影响，国内电解铝产能"天花 板"被设定在4500万吨的红线上。而在再生铝条线，相较原铝存在低成本和低碳两大优势，单吨再生铝 碳排放量约为电解铝生产环节的2 ...

南方财经全媒体记者郭晓洁 21世纪经济报道记者李德尚玉 实习生余忠梅 广州报道 随着绿色金融市场的快速发展，相关的资讯和数据变得越来越丰富。绿色金融周报从宏观视角和机构绿 色金融实践等角度，关注绿色金融领域的最新前沿动态，追踪绿色金融市场的最新趋势，为绿色金融相 关参与方提供决策依据和参考。 1、上海：鼓励金融机构聚焦"美丽中国先行区"建设 近日，人民银行上海市分行等九部门近日联合印发《关于发挥国际绿色金融枢纽作用 助力美丽上海建 设的通知》（以下简称《通知》），围绕绿色金融重点领域项目、金融机构专业能力建设、产品和服务 模式创新等方面提出20条具体举措。 《通知》提出，要加大重点领域的金融支持力度，鼓励金融机构聚焦"美丽中国先行区"建设，稳步扩大 绿色贷款和转型贷款规模；支持上海市各区、各产业园区积极开展减污降碳协同创新工作；完善绿色金 融产融部门协同；推动绿色建筑标准与绿色信贷标准有效衔接；持续建设上海绿色金融服务平台，完善 上海绿色项目库；支持节水产业发展等等。 《通知》要求，各金融机构要提升绿色金融专业服务能力；丰富绿色投融资产品，强化金融机构绿色转 型的激励约束机制；并加强环境信息披露和碳核算工作， ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first domestic futures and options for casting aluminum alloy at the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant milestone in China's futures market, aligning with green finance initiatives and supporting the transformation of the aluminum industry [2]. Group 1: Market Development - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options will enhance enterprise operations, industrial performance, and ecological construction, promoting the upgrading of aluminum industry standards [2]. - This event represents a "triple first" for Chongqing's state-owned enterprises, including the first designated delivery warehouse for casting aluminum alloy futures in the country, the first delivery warehouse at the Shanghai Futures Exchange for Chongqing's state-owned system, and the first non-ferrous metal futures delivery warehouse in the Chongqing state-owned system [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The delivery warehouse is located in the Chongqing Lianglu Fruit Garden Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone, which aligns with the national "dual carbon" strategic goals and strengthens the supply chain resilience of Chongqing's automotive and motorcycle industries [2]. - The establishment of the delivery warehouse is a core component of the Chongqing Bonded Port Area Group's "futures + spot + delivery" full-chain service system, enhancing support for the real economy and empowering industrial development [2][3]. Group 3: Regional Impact - The Chongqing Comprehensive Bonded Zone, as the first dual-core hub with both air and water port functions, leverages its advantages in channels, platforms, and industries to integrate into the Shanghai Futures Exchange's delivery system [3]. - This breakthrough not only signifies a key step in building a modern circulation system for bulk commodities but also opens new pathways for enterprises in the western region to participate in global resource allocation and enhance the modernization of the industrial chain [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the first recycled metal commodity in China's futures market, with strong initial trading performance and participation from leading aluminum companies [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The total trading volume for the seven contracts reached 57,300 lots, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and the main contract AD2511 accounted for 52,300 lots and 10.1 billion yuan in transaction value [3][4]. Industry Participation - Major aluminum companies such as Shunbo Alloy, Lichong Group, and Judong Co. actively participated in the trading on the first day, indicating strong industry interest [1][6][8]. - The recycled aluminum alloy industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, with a market concentration of about 30% among the top five companies [7]. Price Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the initial price performance aligns with expectations, but caution that the market may experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply dynamics [4][5]. - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and low profit margins, with a projected operating rate of only 53% in 2024, which may limit future price increases [4][5]. Impact on Related Companies - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures has positively impacted stock prices of related companies, with Shunbo Alloy rising by 10.01% and Lichong Group by 7.60% as of June 11 [8]. - Shunbo Alloy's projected revenue for 2024 is 13.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, although its net profit is expected to decrease by 47.96% [8]. Strategic Importance - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for industry players, providing a more effective hedging tool compared to existing aluminum futures [8][9]. - The futures market is anticipated to play a significant role in the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys, contributing to a more transparent and fair market environment [8][9][10].

6月10日，国内首个再生商品品种——铸造铝合金期货及期权在上海期货交易所（下称"上期所"）挂牌上市。此次上市中，重庆保税港区集团下属欣资产经 营管理有限公司仓库成功获批全国首批铸造铝合金期货指定交割仓库。 上海期货交易所党委书记、理事长田向阳介绍，铸造铝合金期货及期权的推出是国内期货市场以绿色金融服务新质生产力发展的又一里程碑。铸造铝合金期 货及期权的上市，将进一步在企业经营、产业运行和生态建设等方面发挥作用，推动铝产业标准提升和转型升级。 平台方面，作为西部陆海新通道关键节点，综保区叠加港口型国家物流枢纽与自贸试验区政策红利，形成制度创新高地。 供图 据重庆保税港区集团相关负责人介绍，交割库作为保税港区集团"期货＋现货＋交割"全链条服务体系的核心环节，落地运营将有助于提高服务实体经济赋能 产业发展的支撑力，提升重庆有色金属领域资源配置的影响力和增强重庆大宗商品要素流通枢纽的辐射力。 交割库选址位于两江新区的综保区A16仓库，绝非偶然。作为全国首个兼具空港＋水港功能的双核枢纽，综保区坐拥通道、平台、产业三大优势。 通道方面，综保区构建"15分钟主城覆盖圈"，实现"飞机－铁路－水运－公路"无缝衔接，5000吨级 ...

6月10日，我国期货市场首个再生商品品种——铸造铝合金期货及期权在上海期货交易所挂牌交易，这 也是期市首个再生金属品种。截止到6月10日下午收盘，铸造铝合金期货品种成交5.73万手(单边)，成交 金额110.11亿元，持仓1.15万手。 上市铸造铝合金期货及期权，通过发挥期货市场的价格发现功能，有助于形成规范、透明、高效的铸造 铝合金定价机制，还与上海期货交易所已有的氧化铝、电解铝期货及期权形成协同效应，提升铝产业链 企业风险管理能力，为铝产业绿色低碳高质量发展注入新动力。 首个再生金属品种 我国是世界铝工业大国，已建成"铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝-铝加工-铝应用-再生铝"的完整产业链。铸造铝 合金是以废铝为主要原料，与铜、硅等熔炼后，通过铸造工艺生成毛坯或零件的铝合金。铸造铝合金是 废铝循环利用的主要途径，具有再生绿色属性，在新能源汽车轻量化、动力电池壳体制造等领域应用广 泛。 再生有色金属是保障我国乃至全球有色金属资源安全、推动绿色低碳转型的关键力量。2024年，我国再 生铜铝铅锌产量达1915万吨，占十种有色金属产量的24%。其中，再生铝产量已突破1000万吨。近年， 国家高度重视绿色化铝产业发展体系建设， ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in China's futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options were listed on June 10, 2023, with futures trading starting at 9 AM and options at 9 PM [1]. - This is the first recycled metal product in China's futures market, aimed at enhancing the risk management product lineup for the non-ferrous metal industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The casting aluminum alloy is a primary method for recycling waste aluminum, contributing significantly to energy conservation and emission reduction [1]. - According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the production of casting aluminum alloy in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing demand for effective price risk management tools due to increasing price volatility of raw materials like waste aluminum [1]. Group 3: Trading Performance - As of June 10, 2023, by 3 PM, the trading volume of casting aluminum alloy futures exceeded 57,300 contracts, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan [3]. Group 4: Industry Leadership - The Chairman of the Licheng Sihua Light Alloy Group emphasized the need for a unified pricing mechanism in the industry, as the prices of raw materials have increasingly diverged from aluminum prices, complicating hedging efforts [1]. - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures is expected to provide richer risk management tools, helping companies better lock in prices and enhance their competitiveness [1]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange noted that the introduction of these futures and options will further support the high-quality development of China's aluminum industry, enhancing operational efficiency and ecological sustainability [2].

【铸造铝合金期货及期权助力铝产业绿色发展，价格走势受多因素影响】铸造铝合金期货及期权作为首 个再生金属期货品种，能促进我国铝产业绿色低碳发展，完善废铝循环利用市场和标准，助力构建绿色 低碳循环体系。其期货合约挂牌基准价中性偏低，考虑到产能过剩及淡季因素，中长期价格将向下运 行，预计AD2511合理区间为18000 - 19700元/吨，产业客户可关注19800元/吨上方卖套保机会。原料方 面，废铝是主要原料，当前流通货源偏紧，价格坚挺。精废价差突破3000元/吨，反映供给紧张。2024 年废铝新料供应350万吨，占国产废铝33%，进口量近180万吨，占14.6%，但进口无法弥补短缺，高企 的废铝价格挤压再生铝厂利润。估算显示，当前废铝积蓄中42.2%留存于建筑型材，22.2%留存于工业 型材，回收量级可观。未来国内循环体系完善后，废铝供给或上升，成本可能松动。产能上，2025年预 计铸造铝合金新增产能125万吨，一季度新增约56万吨。再生合金行业分布集中度不高，企业多集中在 江苏、广东、浙江等地，竞争格局分散。需求端，新能源汽车是铝合金需求核心增长点，我国铸造铝合 金终端需求主要在汽车和摩托车行业。中汽协预测 ...