Core Insights - The launch of the AD12.1 aluminum alloy futures and options marks a historic moment for China's futures market, enabling full industry chain coverage for non-ferrous metal futures and supporting the low-carbon transition of the global aluminum industry [1][8] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The pricing mechanism innovation through the AD12.1 futures contract enhances transparency in the recycled aluminum industry, shifting pricing from regional negotiations to a national benchmark [3][4] - The AD12.1 futures provide precise hedging tools for companies, allowing them to lock in raw material procurement and product sales prices, thus creating a closed-loop risk management system [4][6] - Strict quality standards for delivery under the AD12.1 contract will drive industry consolidation, with expectations that leading companies will increase their market share to over 40% in the next three years [5][6] Group 2: Opportunities for Leading Companies - Anhui Lixing Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. benefits from being one of the first delivery companies, enhancing its brand value and market position in high-end sectors like automotive parts and photovoltaic supports [6][7] - The company is investing in quality control upgrades, achieving a product qualification rate increase from 92% to 98.5% through improved processes, which solidifies its market position in the Yangtze River Delta [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The establishment of the AD12.1 futures is a critical step for China to transition from an aluminum production powerhouse to a pricing leader in the global market [8][9] - The expected growth in recycled aluminum investment by 30% post-launch and projected production exceeding 18 million tons by 2030 will significantly contribute to carbon reduction efforts [9]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, but the announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper by Trump put pressure on copper prices. The market may worry about the closure of the US import window and a potential decline in non - US copper demand. Technically, there is strong support at the June price center [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased with open interest last night and the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 20,700 yuan today. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the rise in the black and production - cut sectors was beneficial to aluminum prices. On July 10th, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 455,000 tons. With improved domestic macro - expectations, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high, and the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with open interest in the afternoon and the main contract price stood above 121,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved. Upstream mines were stable, downstream expectations improved, stainless steel strengthened, and downstream demand might improve, supporting nickel prices. Technically, the price stood above 120,000 yuan again and is expected to remain strong driven by the macro - environment [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Trump announced on July 9th that a 50% tariff on all imported copper to the US would be imposed starting from August 1st. In Q2 2025, the I, II, and III phase concentrators of Kamoa - Kakula processed 3.62 million tons of ore, producing 112,000 tons of copper, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In the first half of 2025, it produced 245,000 tons of copper [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange listed the first recycled metal variety, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, on June 10th. As of July 9th, after 22 trading days, the cast aluminum alloy futures had a cumulative trading volume of 205,700 lots, with a post - market open interest of 10,200 lots, equivalent to 102,000 tons of spot, accounting for about 27% of the domestic monthly consumption of cast aluminum alloy. The cast aluminum alloy options had a cumulative trading volume of 41,500 lots and a post - market open interest of 6,000 lots [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 10th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2050 yuan/ton at a price of 121,740 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton at 120,240 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton at 122,440 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton at 118,790 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market is set to introduce multiple new varieties this year to meet the diverse and refined risk management needs of enterprises, aiding them in hedging against risks [1] - The internationalization of China's futures market has been enhanced, with 16 new tradable futures and options products available for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII and RQFII) starting June 20 [1] - As of now, the number of tradable products for qualified foreign investors in China's futures market has increased to 91 [1] Group 2 - New futures products are being accelerated, including cash-settled monthly average futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene (PP) announced by Dalian Commodity Exchange [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is preparing to launch futures and options contracts for propylene, which is the largest olefin product in China [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange aims to develop a green futures trading platform, focusing on new energy and materials, with plans to introduce platinum and palladium by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The trading activity in China's futures market has remained robust, with a cumulative trading volume of 3.337 billion contracts and a trading value of 28.693 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The event organized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Chongqing Securities and Futures Industry Association focused on the listing of casting aluminum alloy futures and options, aiming to enhance the professional capabilities of industry personnel and better serve enterprises in risk management [1] - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is a significant step in supporting China's "dual carbon" strategy and promoting the green and low-carbon development of the aluminum industry, while also improving price risk management tools for aluminum industry chain enterprises [1][2] - The training included insights from experts on the contract rules of casting aluminum alloy futures and options, as well as the current situation of the upstream and downstream of the casting aluminum alloy supply chain [1] Group 2 - Casting aluminum alloy (recycled) is primarily used for producing castings and is made from waste aluminum, significantly saving energy and water compared to traditional electrolytic aluminum production, thus reducing carbon emissions [2] - The production cost of the mainstream recycled casting aluminum alloy ADC12 is approximately 19,700 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of over 6%, while the selling price is around 19,953 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit margin of only 200 yuan/ton [2] Group 3 - Future growth in the recycled aluminum industry is driven by policy support and increasing demand for low-carbon aluminum alloy materials, although there is a need to reduce homogeneous competition and seek differentiated development [3] - The end consumption of recycled casting aluminum alloys is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector, and understanding the supply and demand dynamics of both the upstream and downstream is crucial for pricing [3] Group 4 - The aluminum industry chain can be divided into primary aluminum and recycled aluminum, with the latter having advantages in cost and carbon emissions, as it produces only about 2% of the carbon emissions compared to electrolytic aluminum [4] - The new regulations for the delivery of casting aluminum alloy futures require specific procedures for the issuance of VAT invoices, which differ from other products in the exchange [4] Group 5 - The Lichung Group's new facility in Chongqing is set to officially open by the end of 2024, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-performance integrated aluminum alloy materials [5] - The facility is positioned as a production base and sales center for aluminum alloys in the southwest region, directly supplying aluminum alloy liquid to local customers [5] Group 6 - Lichung Group is one of the first companies to engage in transactions after the listing of casting aluminum alloy futures, benefiting from price discovery and improved risk management tools [6] - The company's "AOEM" brand casting aluminum alloy has become one of the first registered delivery brands for the futures market, enhancing sales channels and profitability [6]

Group 1 - The rapid development of the green finance market has led to an increase in relevant information and data, with a focus on the latest trends and dynamics in the field [1] - The People's Bank of Shanghai and nine other departments issued a notification to encourage financial institutions to focus on the construction of the "Beautiful China Pilot Zone," proposing 20 specific measures to enhance green finance [2] - The notification emphasizes increasing financial support for key areas, expanding green loans, and improving the collaboration between financial and industrial sectors [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the issuance of steel-related GSS+ bonds in China is expected to exceed 22 billion yuan, with significant developments in financing tools for the steel industry [3][4] - The report indicates that banks in Hebei province issued 2.8 billion USD (approximately 205.8 billion yuan) in transformation loans for the steel industry [3] - The total balance of green loans in China is projected to reach 36.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [4] Group 3 - The national carbon market saw a peak price of 70.96 yuan per ton, with a weekly closing price increase of 4.51% [5] - The total transaction volume of carbon emission allowances reached 3,154,915 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 219.15 million yuan [6] Group 4 - The first recycled commodity variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, providing precise risk management tools for enterprises [8] - The issuance of 6 billion yuan "Green Full Hubei" themed green bonds by the Agricultural Development Bank of China aims to support environmental protection projects in Hubei [9] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China issued the first floating-rate green financial bond in the commercial banking sector, raising 8 billion yuan for green infrastructure and clean energy projects [10]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first domestic futures and options for casting aluminum alloy at the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant milestone in China's futures market, aligning with green finance initiatives and supporting the transformation of the aluminum industry [2]. Group 1: Market Development - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options will enhance enterprise operations, industrial performance, and ecological construction, promoting the upgrading of aluminum industry standards [2]. - This event represents a "triple first" for Chongqing's state-owned enterprises, including the first designated delivery warehouse for casting aluminum alloy futures in the country, the first delivery warehouse at the Shanghai Futures Exchange for Chongqing's state-owned system, and the first non-ferrous metal futures delivery warehouse in the Chongqing state-owned system [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The delivery warehouse is located in the Chongqing Lianglu Fruit Garden Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone, which aligns with the national "dual carbon" strategic goals and strengthens the supply chain resilience of Chongqing's automotive and motorcycle industries [2]. - The establishment of the delivery warehouse is a core component of the Chongqing Bonded Port Area Group's "futures + spot + delivery" full-chain service system, enhancing support for the real economy and empowering industrial development [2][3]. Group 3: Regional Impact - The Chongqing Comprehensive Bonded Zone, as the first dual-core hub with both air and water port functions, leverages its advantages in channels, platforms, and industries to integrate into the Shanghai Futures Exchange's delivery system [3]. - This breakthrough not only signifies a key step in building a modern circulation system for bulk commodities but also opens new pathways for enterprises in the western region to participate in global resource allocation and enhance the modernization of the industrial chain [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the first recycled metal commodity in China's futures market, with strong initial trading performance and participation from leading aluminum companies [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The total trading volume for the seven contracts reached 57,300 lots, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and the main contract AD2511 accounted for 52,300 lots and 10.1 billion yuan in transaction value [3][4]. Industry Participation - Major aluminum companies such as Shunbo Alloy, Lichong Group, and Judong Co. actively participated in the trading on the first day, indicating strong industry interest [1][6][8]. - The recycled aluminum alloy industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, with a market concentration of about 30% among the top five companies [7]. Price Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the initial price performance aligns with expectations, but caution that the market may experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply dynamics [4][5]. - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and low profit margins, with a projected operating rate of only 53% in 2024, which may limit future price increases [4][5]. Impact on Related Companies - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures has positively impacted stock prices of related companies, with Shunbo Alloy rising by 10.01% and Lichong Group by 7.60% as of June 11 [8]. - Shunbo Alloy's projected revenue for 2024 is 13.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, although its net profit is expected to decrease by 47.96% [8]. Strategic Importance - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for industry players, providing a more effective hedging tool compared to existing aluminum futures [8][9]. - The futures market is anticipated to play a significant role in the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys, contributing to a more transparent and fair market environment [8][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant milestone in China's futures market, promoting green finance and the development of new productive forces [1] Group 1: Market Development - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options will enhance enterprise operations, industrial processes, and ecological construction, driving the upgrade and standardization of the aluminum industry [1] - This event represents the first time a Chongqing state-owned enterprise has entered the futures delivery sector of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, achieving three notable firsts: the first national delivery warehouse for casting aluminum alloy futures, the first delivery warehouse for a Chongqing state-owned enterprise, and the first non-ferrous metal futures delivery warehouse in the Chongqing state-owned system [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Casting aluminum alloy is recognized as a green metal material widely used in sectors such as lightweighting for new energy vehicles and manufacturing battery casings [1] - The establishment of the delivery warehouse in Chongqing's Liangluo Guoyuan Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone aligns with the national "dual carbon" strategy and will strengthen the supply chain resilience of Chongqing's automotive and motorcycle industry, effectively driving the local new industrialization process [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Logistics - The delivery warehouse is a core component of the Chongqing Bonded Port Area Group's "futures + spot + delivery" service system, enhancing support for the real economy and increasing the influence of resource allocation in the non-ferrous metal sector [3] - The location of the delivery warehouse in the Comprehensive Bonded Zone is strategic, benefiting from its dual-core hub capabilities of both air and water ports, which provide significant advantages in terms of channels, platforms, and industry [3][4] - The Comprehensive Bonded Zone has established a "15-minute main city coverage circle," enabling seamless connections between air, rail, water, and road transport, with a shipping capacity of 5,000 tons directly accessing the Yangtze River Golden Waterway [3] Group 4: Industry Integration - The Comprehensive Bonded Zone is backed by a trillion-yuan automotive industry cluster in Chongqing, with an annual aluminum demand exceeding 2 million tons, creating a complete industrial chain from aluminum ingots to processing and recycling [5] - The zone has aligned with Chongqing's positioning as a national modern manufacturing base and international logistics hub, successfully integrating into the Shanghai Futures Exchange's delivery system with low-carbon recycled aluminum alloy as a strategic focus [5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options marks a significant step in China's futures market, enhancing price discovery and risk management capabilities in the aluminum industry, while promoting green and high-quality development [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Launch and Performance - On June 10, 2023, China's first recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan on the first day [1]. - The initial listing price for the casting aluminum alloy futures was set at 18,365 yuan per ton, with the main contract closing at 19,190 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase from the listing price [6]. Group 2: Industry Context and Importance - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and an expected output of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [3]. - The recycling of aluminum is crucial for resource security and promoting a green, low-carbon transition, with recycled aluminum production exceeding 10 million tons in recent years [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Pricing Mechanism - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures addresses the industry's need for a unified pricing mechanism, allowing companies to manage price risks more effectively, especially given the volatility in raw material prices [4]. - Industry leaders emphasize that the new futures will provide better tools for risk management, enabling companies to lock in prices more accurately and enhance their competitiveness [4][5]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of a green aluminum industry, aiming for recycled aluminum production to exceed 15 million tons by 2027 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to enhance its role in supporting the high-quality development of the aluminum industry and improving its international influence through the introduction of new financial products [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in China's futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options were listed on June 10, 2023, with futures trading starting at 9 AM and options at 9 PM [1]. - This is the first recycled metal product in China's futures market, aimed at enhancing the risk management product lineup for the non-ferrous metal industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The casting aluminum alloy is a primary method for recycling waste aluminum, contributing significantly to energy conservation and emission reduction [1]. - According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the production of casting aluminum alloy in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing demand for effective price risk management tools due to increasing price volatility of raw materials like waste aluminum [1]. Group 3: Trading Performance - As of June 10, 2023, by 3 PM, the trading volume of casting aluminum alloy futures exceeded 57,300 contracts, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan [3]. Group 4: Industry Leadership - The Chairman of the Licheng Sihua Light Alloy Group emphasized the need for a unified pricing mechanism in the industry, as the prices of raw materials have increasingly diverged from aluminum prices, complicating hedging efforts [1]. - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures is expected to provide richer risk management tools, helping companies better lock in prices and enhance their competitiveness [1]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange noted that the introduction of these futures and options will further support the high-quality development of China's aluminum industry, enhancing operational efficiency and ecological sustainability [2].