Core Viewpoint - In January, Croatia's annual inflation rate was reported at 3.4%, making it one of the highest in the Eurozone despite a slowdown in price growth [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The annual inflation rate measured by the consumer price index (CPI) in January was 3.4% [1] - The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) indicated an annual inflation rate of 3.6%, second only to Slovakia's 4.2% and significantly above the Eurozone average of 1.7% [1] Group 2: Price Changes by Category - Service prices saw the highest increase, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [1] - Energy prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year and 1.8% month-on-month [1] - Prices for food, beverages, and tobacco increased by 3% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month [1] - Non-food industrial goods, excluding energy, experienced a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.4% [1]

Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Economic Impact - On January 17, Trump announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries, effective February 1, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1 until an agreement on the "complete and thorough purchase of Greenland" is reached [2][6] - The eight affected countries include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with six being EU members [2] - The potential impact on the Euro is mixed; tariffs and geopolitical tensions may weaken European economic growth, while rising uncertainty in U.S. policies could undermine the dollar's reliability as an investment destination [10] Group 2: EU's Economic Ties with the U.S. - The EU and the U.S. have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship globally, with the EU accounting for 17% of U.S. exports in February 2025, surpassing China, ASEAN, and Japan [3] - The EU is the largest source of FDI into the U.S., with a stock of $2.4 trillion in 2023, supporting approximately 3.4 million jobs in the U.S. [3][4] - Despite a trade surplus in goods, the EU faces a significant services deficit with the U.S., indicating a balanced overall trade structure [3] Group 3: EU's Dependence and Challenges - The EU is heavily reliant on the U.S. in defense, finance, technology, and energy, which limits its ability to respond to geopolitical pressures [4] - Over 60% of defense imports come from the U.S., and European financial infrastructure is largely dependent on American companies [4] - The EU's energy dependence on the U.S. is expected to increase, with projections indicating that 57% of LNG imports will come from the U.S. by 2025 [4] Group 4: Internal Political Divisions in the EU - Significant political divisions within the EU complicate the implementation of unified responses to tariff issues, with varying attitudes among member states and political parties [5] Group 5: Economic Forecasts and Market Reactions - The impact of tariff increases on GDP is expected to be limited, with consumer confidence already weakened and investment data remaining low [7] - The European Central Bank may maintain its current stance unless trade tensions escalate significantly, with inflation pressures primarily stemming from service sectors [7] - The potential for increased European autonomy in defense and technology sectors is noted, with discussions on structural investments in these areas [8] Group 6: Market Implications - The likelihood of Europe selling off U.S. assets in response to tariffs is low, as the EU and the UK are significant investors in U.S. markets [9] - The current asset allocation trends indicate a higher proportion of investments in the U.S. compared to Europe, prompting a reevaluation of asset sustainability [9] - Sectors such as banking and utilities, which align with the theme of "autonomous independence," are viewed favorably, while industries with high exposure to U.S. markets may face challenges [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectations are rising. China's imports and exports rebounded in November. Although there are still high - base disturbances, exports are expected to maintain strong resilience considering external positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and global economic recovery [1]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has also risen sharply, and attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the relatively certain non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Also, pay attention to the "anti - involution" facts in the black and chemical sectors, and the impact of Sino - US talks and weather on agricultural products [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are heating up. Multiple meetings have been held in November, including the State Council Executive Meeting, the price disorderly competition cost determination work symposium, and the power and energy storage battery industry manufacturing enterprise symposium [1]. - In October, China's export (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the previous value increasing by 8.3%. The import and export data were affected by the reduction of working days and pre - holiday rush exports. In November, China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months [1]. - In November, China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year, higher than expected. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and exports to the US declined further. Integrated circuits and automobiles were the main driving factors [1]. - In November, China's import (in US dollars) increased by 1.9% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from the previous month. Imports from the US and ASEAN decreased less, and imports from the EU decreased slightly year - on - year. Imports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased, as did the import volume of energy products except coal [1]. - On December 8, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with sectors such as computing hardware, commercial aerospace, storage chips, and securities leading the rise [1]. Fed and Global Market - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Many Fed officials have released dovish signals, and some key figures support a December rate cut [2]. - In November, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.7 to 48.2 [2]. - Trump hinted that economic advisor Hassett, who tends to a loose stance, might succeed as the Fed chairman, strengthening the market's expectation that the rate - cut pace could be faster than expected [2]. - The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen sharply, leading to higher Japanese bond yields and a stronger yen. Attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. Commodity Market - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" facts [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to pay attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on oil prices. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU has reached an agreement to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027 [2]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worth noting [2]. - In the agricultural product sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast after the Sino - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [2]. Important News - China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year in November, with an estimate of 4% and a previous value of - 1.1%. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a previous value of 1%. The trade surplus was $111.68 billion [4]. - The CSRC will implement differentiated supervision on securities firms, appropriately relax restrictions on high - quality institutions, and explore differentiated supervision on small and medium - sized and foreign - funded securities firms [4]. - On December 8, the market opened higher and moved higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 3% during the session. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.6% [4]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand and implementing positive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [4].

Group 1: Price Performance Characteristics - In May, the overall CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%[6] - Consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year for four consecutive months, while service prices rose by 0.5%, marking three months of positive growth[8] - Agricultural and energy prices declined, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[14] Group 2: Future Price Trends - Negative price growth is expected to persist until the end of Q3, primarily due to ongoing downward pressure on pork prices[20] - Current consumption policies have limited impact on prices, which may be offset by fluctuations in energy prices[21] - The overall CPI is unlikely to follow core inflation upward unless the downward pressures on agricultural and energy prices are alleviated[22] Group 3: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could affect future price trends[25]