机构：交银国际 研究员：丁政宁/诸葛乐懿 关键临床数据读出在即，多项早期管线持续推进：芦康沙妥珠适应症覆盖范围将持续扩张，管理层表示 将于2025 年ESMO 大会上公布两项三期临床数据，包括：1）2L HR+/HER2-乳腺癌适应症：已递交 sNDA，并被纳入优先审评；2）二线EGFRmt NSCLC 适应症：已递交sNDA，预计2025 年内获批。同 时多项一线适应症注册性研究进展顺利， 包括1L PD-(L)1（2H25/2026 年初递交NDA）、1L EGFRmt NSCLC 联合奥希替尼（预计2026 年递交NDA ） 。此外， 公司多项早期管线稳步推进： SKB571 （EGFR/c-MET 双抗ADC）即将进入二期临床，受益于安全性提升，联用潜力充足，有望布局消化道 肿瘤等与芦康沙妥珠具有差异化的适应症。 上调目标价：我们略微上调2025-27 年收入预测、上调长期峰值销售预测，以反映芦康沙妥珠及早期管 线品种研发如期推进对产品销售确定性（成功率假设）的提升作用。基于DCF 模型，我们上调公司目 标价至507港元，对应5.0 倍收入达峰时市销率及18%的潜在升幅，维持买入评级。 公司1H25 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 8 月 21 日 科伦博泰生物 (6990 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 431.00 港元 507.00↑ +17.6% 核心品种快速放量，大适应症和早期管线开发渐入佳境，上调目标价 公司 1H25 销售表现符合预期，芦康沙妥珠市场渗透快速提升。我们认为，随 着芦康沙妥珠已获批适应症的逐步放量，叠加新适应症持续拓展、合作伙伴默 沙东稳步推进海外开发，上调其中国内地销售峰值至 57 亿元人民币（约合 8 亿美元），同时早期管线的差异化竞争潜力在临床研究中逐步体现。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 6990 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 456.00 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 154.00 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 70,153.87 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 0.98 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 163. ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - The report highlights a significant revenue increase for Bubble Mart, achieving RMB 13.88 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Bubble Mart reached RMB 4.71 billion, a substantial increase of 362.8% year-on-year, with improved profitability reflected in a gross margin of 70.3% and a net profit margin of 33.9% [1][2] - Management has raised the full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to no less than RMB 30 billion, previously set at RMB 20 billion, with an expected net profit margin of 35% [1][2] Group 2: IP Diversification and Market Expansion - Bubble Mart's diverse IP matrix has driven rapid revenue growth, with the core IP "The Monsters" series seeing a staggering 668% increase in revenue to RMB 4.81 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has expanded its IP portfolio, with four other major IPs generating over RMB 1 billion each, alleviating concerns about reliance on a single IP [2] - Both domestic and overseas markets have shown rapid growth, with plans to increase store presence in overseas markets to over 200 by year-end, including more than 60 in the Americas [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Market Position - The report projects a 39-49% increase in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price adjustment to HKD 394.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating for Bubble Mart [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong IP operation capabilities and ongoing globalization efforts, positioning it as a preferred stock in the consumer sector [2] Group 4: Other Company Highlights - WuXi AppTec reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 2.7 billion in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin improvement to 36.1% [3] - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance from 35% to over 45%, anticipating continued margin improvements in the second half of 2025 [3] - The report notes that the company is expected to invest RMB 1.56 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, with a total of RMB 7 billion by 2029 [3]

交银国际研究 | 科伦博泰生物 | | 6990 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国领先的 | ADC 平台，管线价值集中兑现、关键 | 评级: 买入 | | 拐点已至，首予买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 321.20 | 目标价: 港元 400.00 | 潜在涨幅: +24.5% | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | 中国首屈一指的 ADC 平台和管线：自 2016 年成立后，公司：1）建立了涵 盖 ADC、大分子药物、小分子靶向药的三大技术平台；2）基于三大平台， 打造了一条约 20 个分子的药物管线，包括至少 11 个 ADC 及 I/O + ADC 联用 机会；3）与默沙东就 ADC 资产多次达成合作交易，总交易对价超百亿美元、 目前正合作推进 6 个分子的全球研发。 核心品种芦康沙妥珠差异化优势明显：芦康沙妥珠对比另两款已上市同靶同 机制竞品，在分子设计和临床数据上有明显优势。中国以外，默沙东正快速 推进约 14 项 III 期研究，涵盖多种存在巨大未满足治疗需求的瘤种。我们预 计芦康沙妥珠中国内地和海外销售峰值将分别超过 50 ...

Group 1 - The company has established itself as a leading ADC platform and pipeline in China since its inception in 2016, focusing on enhancing its R&D capabilities and drug pipeline [1] - The company has developed three major technology platforms: ADC, large molecule drugs, and small molecule targeted drugs, with OptiDC being one of the first integrated ADC platforms in mainland China, showcasing significant advantages in core component design [1] - The drug pipeline consists of approximately 20 molecules, including at least 11 ADCs and opportunities for I/O + ADC combination therapies, with collaborations with Merck resulting in total transaction values exceeding $10 billion [1] Group 2 - The core product, Lukanasatuzumab, is the second TROP2 ADC approved globally and the first domestically produced TROP2 ADC, demonstrating clear advantages in molecular design and clinical data compared to two other competing products [1] - Merck is rapidly advancing around 14 Phase III studies for Lukanasatuzumab, targeting cancers with significant unmet medical needs, further validating the global clinical and commercial value of the product [1] - The projected peak sales for Lukanasatuzumab are expected to exceed 5 billion RMB in mainland China and 4 billion USD overseas, serving as a key driver for the company's valuation [1] Group 3 - The company is entering a golden period of value realization, with additional product approvals expected by the end of 2024 and early 2025, including PD-L1 and Cetuximab, while HER2 ADC is under review for market approval [2] - The tumor field is gradually forming a comprehensive treatment matrix of I/O + ADC, while the non-tumor field is targeting large patient populations with limited treatment options [2] - The company is at a critical turning point in evolving from a biotech firm to a comprehensive biopharmaceutical platform, with potential operational breakeven expected in two years [2] Group 4 - The company is expected to see rapid revenue growth post-launch of products like Lukanasatuzumab, with projected revenues reaching 2.04 billion RMB, 3 billion RMB, and 4.3 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a 45% CAGR [2] - The CAGR for product sales revenue is anticipated to reach 82% [2] - A target price of 400 HKD has been established based on a DCF valuation model, corresponding to a 5.0x revenue peak sales multiple and a 25% potential upside, with a buy rating assigned [2]